Livestream: Marco Thinks We Are Stupid

Added: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]of the administration's cope gets stupider, right? And really a better a better frame is actually Marco Rubio's personal hell, right? Because I mean really truly if you told me it turned out that Marco Rubio in like 2019 went in one of those like suspicious pawn shops with cursed items and he got like a rabbit's foot and he said, "I wish that I was the first man since Henry Kissinger to be national security adviser and Secretary of State." And the devil was like, "Granted."

[00:00:34]and then he gets it, but it turns out he's the least powerful national security adviser or secretary of state because literally the president prefers to lean on billionaire condo developer Steve Wickoff for his national security advice. So again, uh Maruga's personal hell uh is probably actually my leading candidate for what's been going on. uh right that we're in some kind of bizarro terrible universe.

[00:01:06]But what I think is more interesting and you guys will filter on in is actually some of the other like reality melting statements uh by Marco. Right. So again, I mean I have literally the transcript. He's just putting it online for us. Like like at this point, he's not even trying to defend his dignity.

[00:01:33]Uh he knows his career is like [ __ ] forever. Um you know, I think there's a fair chance.

[00:01:41]There's there's a non-trivial amount of evidence that he's actually on uh coke.

[00:01:46]Uh which wouldn't shock me at all.

[00:01:51]Uh okay. Interesting. Googling Marco Rubio and cocaine. uh his brother uh oh wow his brother-in-law uh was arrested and convicted for doing if for engaging in a $15 million cocaine trafficking in Miami by the way in ' 87 which is like that's like $50 million today. That's a lot. Okay. And got out after just 12 years. Uh, Marco Rubio actually wrote a letter for the guy to get his real estate license in Miami, which if you know anything, you know that Miami real estate is just like half a rung above literally trafficking cocaine. Miami real estate is so sketch.

[00:02:34]Like, it is sketch as all get out. Um but uh there's been some speculative claims based on some of his behavior.

[00:02:50]Uh yeah, they talk about some of these allegations are like Marco Rubio rubbing his hand, rubbing his gums, tapping his hands with his fingers, sipping water, shifting his jaw. Considered a pretty normal sign of of Coke usage.

[00:03:08]Truth be told, I don't know enough. Um, I'm deeply uncool. So, I'm sure I've had friends that have been coke people. In fact, I know definitively I have friends who were who were cokeheads, but um I'm going to get demonetized. Uh, you know, I I was like, "Listen, dudes."

[00:03:28]I basically I was like I have been held a security clearance and been subject to government drug testing and investigations for my entire teens and 20s. Uh so and then by the time you're 30, if you're if you're over 30 and you have friends that use like party drugs, re-evaluate your whole life, dude. Like go just re-evaluate things, okay? Um, so, uh, all that to say, I don't really know enough to know if Marco Rubio is doing that stuff, but I wouldn't put it past him. That's all I'm saying.

[00:04:28]But again, if you guys have specific questions, please drop it in the chat.

[00:04:32]You know, we're here to talk about it.

[00:04:33]You know, we're here to break it down.

[00:04:34]Also, stories that I miss. Um, but boy, it is it is a weird one, right?

[00:04:43]I mean, as always today, like we talked about earlier, uh, President Trump tweeted something that's like transparently [ __ ] just totally transparently made up and the markets were like, "President Trump has never lied to us." And then like the price of oil drops. God, the fantasy. I mean, it's wild. The S&P 500 just rips. Uh it just I mean, it's absolutely hysterical.

[00:05:12]Uh it's truly truly just a riot to me.

[00:05:16]Uh just to see how delusional these people are. But you might recall, right?

[00:05:22]Like like let's see if we can get uh let's let's see if we can find a nice S&P 500 chart that I can kind of zoom in and around on. Okay, let's see. Uh here's a good one for macro trends, I think. Okay, so uh let's see. Oh, perfect, perfect, perfect. All right, so uh give me like the 10-year. Okay, so I want to zoom in for a very specific frame of time. And this is right just back it up a little bit.

[00:05:54]Okay. All right. Here we go. Okay. So, the year, you guys know where this is going. The year is December 2019. You might recall that in 2019 was the signature year of a little something coming out of a market in Wuhan. That's right, COVID 19 or possibly Chinese lab.

[00:06:17]Uh, I don't know if uh the CCP ever allowed us to really know this, know for sure. Uh, the point is somebody in Wuhan did something or bought something or ate something or whatever something they weren't supposed to do and a bad thing happened right now. People identified in December that this bad thing was going on. And I again, so in Wuhan, a massive virus kills like 80,000 people. And then the next month, the market does nothing.

[00:06:52]And then in February, the market doesn't really do anything. Market's like, "This is fine. This is still fine." And then finally, it takes till March for the market to actually be like, "Oh [ __ ] this is bad." Right? Uh let's see if we can zoom in. I wonder if this will let me. It will get more granular. Let's see. It It will not. This is as granular as I can get it. I wonder if I get a buy the day chart cuz the like you got to understand the market uh you got to understand the market. Yeah.

[00:07:28]Here we go.

[00:07:30]Here. Here's what Let's see if we can find it here. This is global confirmed corona virus cases starting right before there was a test.

[00:07:41]So here we go. This is let's take us till the end of May.

[00:07:47]So there's May 2020.

[00:07:50]Okay.

[00:07:52]So again daily confirmed 7-day average bah.

[00:07:58]Now, here's what I want to point out is that China officially has does not experience COVID. There are let's see if they'll actually put them on here, but let's let's let's just use the world's most developed economies. Uh, right. All let's just use the anglophere. Angosphere is going to be easy. Okay. So, right, you can see here we are March 21st things go parabolic. Okay. And before this 000000, right? People are like, but remember this just means no testing is occurring. By March 1st, we knew something was up. I want you to to plot this against the S&P 500 in those months because again, January, right, February, I think the reality just like for months, for weeks, the market stayed irrational. They pretended Oh, sorry guys. They pretended that nothing was happening. They pretended that that this was China's problem that diseases miraculously don't spread somehow, right? Like diseases aren't real.

[00:09:00]Diseases aren't real. Diseases aren't real. Diseases aren't real. And then March 1st, they're like, "Oh, diseases are real." Right?

[00:09:08]And so again, end of February, end of March, you you saw that there was this this almost month-long lag in the ability uh of the market to perceive non-financial risk, right?

[00:09:30]And I think the I think we have something similar playing out here where the market and that and by the way with with co there was clear consistent information about the risk involved.

[00:09:50]But here what you have is the Iranians who are willing to to lie and you have the Trump administration who is willing to lie.

[00:10:02]So what you have is a totally obscured environment in which truth cannot be known and what you have to rely on instead are data. And what does the data say? Well, the data doesn't even give us that much. It just says straight of horses closed. It says that uh refineries are hit and being hit. And so what you have is a market that in the absence of data um behaves as though things are great, which is so [ __ ] weird.

[00:10:44]Like you can see again there's this sense of like I mean, just seeing the S&P 500 do this [ __ ] and and like rip is so [ __ ] weird, especially given the fact that the consensus analysis is that this straight is going to be closed as [ __ ] you know, and when we talk even June 30th, right? Right now, the consensus is that there's only a 58 to 50 58% chance, right? So, a little better than half that it'll be o it'll reopen by June 30th. Um, but you can see these odds have been steadily declining over time. So the market's sitting there and being like, yeah, the the like reality and the market's perception like here the straight of horses is open and energy prices are low. Here the straight of four moves is closed and energy prices are high.

[00:11:51]And yet the market there's just this disconnect that doesn't really make sense.

[00:12:00]Um, yeah, it it is. It's like decoupled from reality. My only theory is that this is a like I could see people being like, "Listen, I'm going to buy these cheap stocks because 18 months from now, this this probably will resolve." But that only takes you back up to the previous level.

[00:12:21]But if you didn't want to buy Nvidia here, why the [ __ ] would you want to buy Nvidia here, right?

[00:12:32]It's very weird.

[00:12:36]And again, I've heard some people say that it's either short selling, which is causing these like upward pressure by people taking short positions, and then algo traders are like bumping it higher.

[00:12:48]there was like a casually financed video that's kind of gone by v viral. Um people say buy the rumors, sell the news. The better way to think about it is that it's about um think about yes it is correct but it's correct because of probability forecasting. You're you're take you're talking about um riskadjusted discounted cash flows. So let's say you say listen you go on poly market you say odds of straightforward traffic return to normal by end of May.

[00:13:15]You say 33% chance. Easy math, right? So you say if it returns to normal, right?

[00:13:22]Disruptions are minimal 18 months from now, oil prices are low again, things are chugging along, and then you say there's a 33% chance that this persists indefinitely.

[00:13:35]And you know, but even that's not the case, right? You look at June 30th and you say, okay, 50/50 chance that it's going to be closed for another two months. and you go, "Okay, well, how much are my holdings going to be impacted by these?"

[00:13:50]And you say, "Well, you know, if you're Nvidia, not not a ton. A little bit. You make things, but if you're Facebook, you sell ads. So, you're not really that worried about it.

[00:14:01]You're you're months away from this becoming a problem. And you got to really have some demand destruction for this to become a problem for Facebook, uh, or Google, another ads company."

[00:14:13]And so I think it's a case of investors are like kind of looking past this which again would explain stability but it wouldn't explain ripping again unless investors are not they're taking short positions driving the market higher and effectively um you know the algorithmic traders are going to push this higher still they also I think um the rumors of peace I mean you can see it you could see the peace rumors took a 39% and made it a 58%. Right? Just on on dumb chitchat about peace. Extremely low credibility, but people price it in.

[00:14:52]They say, "Okay, yeah, how much do you think it really increased Trump's tweets? How much do you think they really increased the odds of a change?"

[00:15:00]Well, they they they increased it maybe by 14%. It became 14% more likely that President Trump would do this [ __ ] Uh that would achieve peace.

[00:15:09]you go. Okay, that's even that's probably being generous in my opinion. I think it's probably more like 6%. You know, but again, that's sort of the madness of this.

[00:15:32]Yeah. I mean, let's see. There was somebody who was talking about oil shortages.

[00:15:40]Um, so I mean here is a letter from JP Morgan to investors called Pandora's bog the global energy shock of 2026 with some cl just awesome AI slop. I mean, to be fair, this AI slop goes pretty hard, right? A a a box. It's in a stunning desert landscape and it's kind of projecting up to a global energy network. Uh that it's AI slop, but it also kind of goes hard. But they're saying listen the right magnitude of oil shock versus history impact of such shocks on equity markets negligible benefit the global strategic petroleum reserve increase again and here's the thing JP Morgan is big enough that they don't just do these forecasts and sometimes they're [ __ ] wrong but they're big enough that they will make them true because they trade on it right and you You can see let's see oil and gas future curves.

[00:16:52]So rent holds a peculiar place in the national psyche. That's pretty funny, right? Uh and prices, oil dependence or independence, right? China highly dependent. Uh US extremely oil independent, right? When oil prices rise more than 100%, the SP500 index typically suffers substantial corrections. WTI prices have risen more than 50% so far. non- US grades have risen by 100% or more. So WTI basically holding it down, keeping the world from from falling apart. But here's some examples, right? See the OPEC production cut, right? Uh dropping and then spiking the price of oil 100%.

[00:17:37]And that correlated to a massive actually uh drop in US equities.

[00:17:45]Uh there's another one, second Gulf War, spiking oil prices and then collapsing US equities. So that's that's kind of the fear here, right? There's even the uh pandemic uh surge in oil price, the 2022 one, and then the fall in equities. So they're like, listen, this this pretty strongly predicts um equities downturns. Like it doesn't you don't have to be a genius to be like yo but this is 100% price spikes right the price has to break this 100% line otherwise it doesn't really have predictive power so you have to hit 120 a barrel now the question is are we going to right and I think that answer is probably right and do they use Brent crude for this no it's WTI and WTI is I mean it makes sense right But you can see right now WTI is floating around 96 was as high as 112.

[00:18:45]Um, but again, you look at the one-year low and it's at 56. So again, 112 112 and you're in you're in [ __ ] territory. And you see we're really close to [ __ ] territory for WTI.

[00:19:03]Yeah, I'll be curious to see what is polyarket forecast, right?

[00:19:11]So let's see. Okay.

[00:19:15]What time what will WTI crude hit this month? So right now they're saying there's a interestingly enough nobody thinks it's going to go above 115. Only a 20% chance it hits 120. I think that's interesting.

[00:19:30]They actually think there's a 60% chance it'll hit 85 a gallon or a barrel. This is wild. I want to live in their universe. I mean, I admire their faith.

[00:19:40]I I I really do.

[00:19:43]But again, I mean, as we've seen, Poly Market draws these insiders, right?

[00:19:52]So, who knows? Who knows? Okay, so let's let's crack into this one. Marco Rubio.

[00:20:00]And Marco, as discussed, has had a pretty bad time of things, but uh he's really out here just kind of debasing himself. And in a press conference today, he really just truly seemed to operate as though we are complete idiots.

[00:20:18]Now, one, I want you to also read this with the knowledge that when he said this, Trump had just announced Project Freedom. And within 24 hours, Project Freedom had been abandoned as a failure. So, I want to listen to his his estimates here. So over the weekend, this is from Marco Rubio, the president announced this project freedom. And the goal of it is to, if you want to talk about it, he said, "It's almost like rescuing 23,000 civilians from 87 different countries trapped inside the Gulf and left for dead in the Persian Gulf by this Iranian regime." Now, I want to point out that this is not true. This is actually just a blatant lie. Why? Because the Iranians didn't actually close the straight. What they said is we are imposing a toll. So, this is like saying that um New York has left everyone in New Jersey to die because you have to pay $2.50 to cross the bridge. Okay, trust me. I'm sure a lot of New Yorkers wish they could leave everyone from New Jersey to die, but charging them 200 $230 to drive into into lower Manhattan is is just not it's it it's not the same thing. So the people who have trapped them there, worth noting is the United States by quarantining them and to a lesser extent the insurance industry. But the Iranians are like, "Listen, we're just charging a toll here." So, and I'm not like, "Oh, the Iranians should should assert control over the strait." Uh, but this is not an accurate characterization.

[00:22:01]This is a lie. So, he opens with a with a with a lie that is transparently untrue.

[00:22:10]And he says that it's because Iran is conducting something criminal. All of a sudden, international law is is totally real, guys. Says criminal for sure, but it's desperate and destructive. This blockade of the straight of Hormuse.

[00:22:26]Okay, guys. They're they're not running a blockade. They're running a tolling booth, but it's fine, right?

[00:22:34]So, again, he's like, "The cargo is at risk, guys. Someone think of the cargo."

[00:22:39]Um, they start running out of food and water and essential supplies. I don't think this is true. um it's pretty easy to sort of cycle supplies in now. A lot of them returned just returned to the Gulf ports that they had parked at. Um then he says we're at the mercy of this piracy and that's what it is. It's piracy which is also pretty rich. Uh because Trump has said the Navy is also engaged in piracy. Trump literally on video says the US Navy is sort of like pirates in Straight of Hormuz. He says we're like pirates. Why? because we seize the ships. Uh so this is hysterical that he's actually casually being like, "No, no, no. You don't understand. I It's not even like, oh, it's a law enforcement action when America does it and it's piracy when the Iranians do it." No, no. President Trump is like, "No, no, no. It's piracy when we do it and it's piracy when the Iranians do it, but we don't like that they're doing it." Which is hysterical.

[00:23:40]which is I mean this is just some like really rich [ __ ] Uh I I I'm almost I'm almost in awe. Like I actually think he might be mocking the president but only people who are literate will know it. So like you guys me but not President Trump. Uh it's hysterical right also being like open fire and rain down senseless attacks on civilian ships nearby. something that also the US Navy has also done as part of its piracy campaign. They have fired on ships. They release video of it. They brag about it.

[00:24:17]So again, he says these are innocent bystanders, countries and ships that have nothing to do with any of this.

[00:24:21]Now, I want to point out the Project Freedom only escorted two US flagged ships. So these are ships that are American ships that are being escorted out by the US Navy, right?

[00:24:34]And he's like, "It's really important."

[00:24:37]Okay, this is also funny. He's like, "It's not an offensive operation. It's totally a defensive operation, right?"

[00:24:43]He says, "There's no shooting unless we're shot at first." Uh, that's always sort of technically true.

[00:24:50]Um, that's like saying that I never went on a combat patrol because our policy was that I don't shoot at Taliban until they shoot at us first. Okay. Uh again, I guess technically true, right? It's it's a real stretch, but he needs this stretch to be so because the Right. And and and I mean, Marcos spent paragraph after paragraph talking about how important it is, how good it is, how unacceptable it is. It's so funny to see him do this and know that they were going to uh back away from it, right? Uh again, he lies and says that actually the Iranian fast boats, the Iranian fast attack craft are not navy ships, which of course is a lie because a navy is just combat power projected with a with a shipborne vessel, a waterborne vessel. Um, so the idea that that somehow if a ship is too small for the US to hit, we suddenly go, "It's not a navy." I think that's pretty hysterical. Um, I mean, he rolls out a bunch of [ __ ] about the president holding all the cards, but but but I want to scroll down to the bottom here because this is where things get really crazy. He says, somebody asked him, "Hey man, what about the War Powers Resolution? Congress is pretty worked up about this war powers act and they say that you guys are actually out of time in this Iran operation and marker no pete heath said hey technically the war powers act doesn't apply because um we have simply created this fictional event where we said actually fun fact the Iran war started the clock and then it ended with a ceasefire and then magically a new series of events occurred So the resetting the clock but Marco Rubio triples down. He says actually guys Congress doesn't have the power to declare war. The War Powers Act the mechanism Congress has chosen by which to constrain or or make a declaration of war is he's like actually it's unconstitutional. Now, I want to point out that even if this were true, the Secretary of State does not decide what is and is not constitutional. The people that do that are the Supreme Court and they have ruled that it is constitutional.

[00:27:25]Now, he says we're going to comply with it, though they haven't because we want good relations with Congress, and we do that. But even as a senator, okay, I don't believe this. He says the War Powers Act is 100% unconstitutional.

[00:27:39]absolute absolute uh crap. Absolutely stupid, right? And here's why. Because, right, war powers resolutions have occurred a bunch of times. But there's some there's some issues here. First off, the Constitution says Congress has the power to declare war. Doesn't say that you have to pass a an act that says, "I declare I declare war." Right? They can pass. For example, in Iraq, they said, "Listen, we just authorize the use of military force in this capacity." But here's where things are more interesting because the Constitution has a bunch of other [ __ ] that makes it clear that they meant for Congress to have a regulation about whether or not the military is deployed or sent to war. Again, given that the president, Marco Rubio, Pete Hatha, Dan Kane have all called what's happening in Iran a war, I think it's fair to say that this is a war. is that yes, Congress has the sole authority to declare war. Then they also the constitution grants congress quote the ability to make rules for the government govern government governing and regulation of the land and naval forces.

[00:28:48]Then it can control the funding of those forces and the commander-in-chief's job is to command those forces. Right?

[00:28:56]So again, my command authority did not give me the authorization, the ability to send armed forces into Pakistan. I couldn't lead my platoon to declare war on Pakistan.

[00:29:08]But that's not an authority within command. Commanders prosecute a war, but they do not. That's like saying that that Douglas MacArthur unilaterally declared war on Korea. Like it it that's not how this works.

[00:29:24]which Korea is a bad example because well Congress never authorized that either.

[00:29:29]But again, Congress is also supposed to provide for and maintain a navy. The idea of maintenance implies that naval forces are a fixture of national defense and right the militia and other military force actually exp the constitution says congress can call it forth and prescribe the organizing arming discip and training of the militia. Maybe though, maybe we should ask the founding fathers themselves what they think because interestingly enough, this is not the first time the US has fought a Middle Eastern war. In fact, in just 1801, uh the US found itself at war with a rogue nation and it sent a fleet in order to actually secure uh the critical waterways. So Thomas Jefferson won the Congress actually raised a frigot specifically for the purpose of uh the the contingency of a declaration of war by the United States against what they called the Barbarie powers. That the ships were quote to protect our commerce and chastise insulence by sinking, burning, or destroying their ships and vessels wherever you shall find them. Okay, so Congress, why would they add this stuff? Why would they feel the need to tell the ships what they were authorized to do if they if that wasn't a power intrinsic to the president?

[00:31:00]Now, even more interesting is that before learning learning that Tripoli had declared war, Jefferson sent a small squadron of three frigates and a schooner under command of Richard Dale with gifts and letters to attempt to maintain peace with the Barbarie powers.

[00:31:13]A diplomatic mission, not combat, not war. However, if war had been declared, then Dale was instructed to quote, "protect American ships and citizens against potential aggression." So, again, a defensive operation, sort of rescue effort, but again, one that was authorized by Congress in the creation of the fleet. Jefferson then made it clear in the letter, he said himself, a founding father said that he quote was unauthorized by the Constitution without the sanction of Congress to go beyond the line of defense.

[00:31:45]He told Congress, quote, I communicate to you all material information on this subject that in the exercise of this important function confided by the Constitution to the legislature exclusively, their judgment may form itself on a knowledge and consideration of every circumstance of weight.

[00:32:03]Right? And Congress did not issue a declaration of war, but it authorized the president to instruct the commanders of the armed American vessels to seize vessels and goods of the Poshv Tripoli and quote to cause to be done all such other acts of precaution or hostility as the state of war will justify. So clearly Congress, even the founding father himself as president said, "Yo, Congress has the power to declare war and to instruct whether or not American combat forces use the use of force."

[00:32:40]So again, we're talking about Marco Rubio operating a state of total and abject delusion.

[00:32:48]Anyway, that's a wrap there. Okay, I see you guys. Oreo pup, thanks for the 10.

[00:32:53]He says, "I have to admit I've been relying on alternative media." Oh god.

[00:32:56]Judge Napoleano, Douglas McGregor, and Mshimer, but I no longer because I no longer trust our own government media.

[00:33:01]You have been a small bastion of pro- US truth. Okay, so listen, here's what I would encourage you to do. I I am all about going to alternative sources, but what you should always do is check those sources against reality. And I encourage you to read, research the things that Douglas McGregor said about the early Ukraine war. He said things um that were provably false, like not I don't mean like he got some analysis wrong. He wrote a column, for example, that the Ukrainian army was in total defeat, that um a ragtag group of holdouts had been totally surrounded by the Russian army and and that um the capitulation of Kiev was actually already had already been completed. Um, uh, Douglas McGregor has has repeatedly found, um, I mean, you should look up the things he has assessed about the war in 2020, um, and or 2022, and you should grade his current analysis against that because his analysis was so wrong. And, and again, I'm not like like I didn't think Ukraine was going to last as long as they did, but what I didn't do is say false things, knowably false things.

[00:34:15]um about the conflict and right I wasn't I didn't say that the Russians were places they weren't that the Ukrainian armed forces had collapsed when they hadn't um right so I encourage you to compare them to facts I also would encourage you to do the same for former judge Napoleano um uh around the 2020 election um look at the things he said at the time not what he says now but at the time the claims he made and I think when you see those things, you'll see that um while the mainstream media gets a lot of [ __ ] wrong and editorializes, so do these kind of partisan hacks. Um so again, and you should do the same to me. You should say, "Listen, Paul, what what are some things that Paul said in the past that he thought were likely that didn't come out? What was the evidence he cited? Um and and what are things that he said were true were that were later proven false?" Right? and should I trust him in that context? Uh, Andrew Shank, thanks for the 10 Canadian. He's a ping guy. I got master econ. I put a bunch of buys on oil. Was watching Bloomberg yesterday and the guy said actual deliveries are 140 to 175. What's the deal with the disconnect? Um, so, uh, first off, that's some bold moves trading oil in this environment. But um I don't actually know I don't know enough about the oil market specifically to understand that.

[00:35:45]A couple of reasons it might be is that um oil I've heard similar things by the way. I've heard similar stories. Uh one answer is that um there's the price of a barrel and then the price of actual delivery to your port. So it could say, hey, our per barrel fee with insurance is much higher, which is highly possible. PI insurance rates for all shipping have increased, I suspect. Um, it could be specific types or subtypes of oil. Uh, right. There's there's, you know, Brent crude is taken as a proxy as like an average type of oil, but that's stuff from the North Sea. Uh there could be harder to refine or easier to refine oils that might be you might uh be able to get more for. Um I think you could also have um a premium on oil today in a way that typically oil deliveries are hey get around to it do it when you do it that sort of thing. um or to say hey a Brent crude a standard barrel of Brent crude might be uh technically for delivery in net 90 to say hey what's the price of a Brent a barrel of Brent delivered to port 90 days from now whereas to say how do I get a barrel of oil today in my port today um probably in like an Asian country you know like South Korea or India um maybe people pay a premium for that so those are some of my theories is that you're paying to get it now, right? You you same reason basically you would um you would you would pay more u at Amazon, right? You get it now. You get exactly what you want, not something approximate. Um and you're paying delivery, right? And you tip your driver.

[00:37:38]Okay. Or they are semi-accurate on Iran, not Russia at all.

[00:37:45]Um, you gotta I mean I Okay, I'm not going to sit in too much. I will say that I I know what you're talking about because that's sort of how I feel about Tucker Carlson sometimes. Like he's had this turn where he's just like, "Hey man, the Iran war is stupid. The Iran war doesn't make any sense. This is going nowhere. Trump's kind of a maniac." But then he'll turn around and be like, "You know who's a really strong, powerful country with a great leader? Russia." And you're like, "The [ __ ] man." Um, so I guess I'm like, I'm just saying check it, right? Like just check their predictions against reality. As discussed, Fox News has said some crazy [ __ ] Iran's [ __ ] 100% defeated. Like they've repeated Trump talking points that are just factually almost comically incorrect. Um, again, if your news sources are like, "Oh, they're semi accurate on Iran and not accurate at all on Russia," that's not that's not spectacular, right?

[00:38:48]That's not I mean, again, consume news from all sources cuz they're going to get stuff right. As you saw in my story about the um Trump uh pardon of that Honduran president, uh you know that got picked up by Drop Site News, which again is like a kind of the Intercept type of of uh platform that, you know, was willing to report things I think closer to the edge, right, from like sort of uh a little bit gray sources. Um, yeah.

[00:39:24]And it's a good point that Tucker is promoting Russian propaganda and of course he's against US and Israeli attacks on Iran. That's a good point that Russia favors Iran.

[00:39:37]And to quote Tucker, what do you think that is? And then an Iranian flag and a Russian flag and money. Yeah.

[00:39:45]Yeah. I mean, I get Well, yeah, that's true. Iran is a Russian ally. Um, they are both Chinese allies and yeah, I I I think I think that is a core fact. But here's the thing. Sometimes you're a shill and you're right. You know, it's like it's like Iran. They the the Israeli the pro-Israel love to be like Iran has [ __ ] enri highlyenriched uranium. And it's like, yeah, they do. Like, that's f that's factually correct and you're willing to promote it because it serves your interests, right? But in a broader context, has Iran move towards developing a nuclear weapon? US intelligence says not really.

[00:40:32]Yeah, bricks trolls love Iran because the bricks are like think that democracy is dumb. They're like, I love Iran cuz it's a theocracy.

[00:40:42]I think America should be run by a [ __ ] uh evangelical preacher. They do a great job. Okay, guys.

[00:40:53]Oh, yeah. Tucker being blown away by a Moscow grocery store. It's like, dude, they're like, "The prices are so cheap."

[00:41:00]I'm like, Tucker, you know how a [ __ ] currency works. Like, this is not advanced math here. You know how the ruble is worth dog [ __ ] because it's sanctioned. And like I unders if he was to be like, I'm walking through this market and I'll say I was surprised to see how many goods were in there that one either were sanctioned and had just been clearly resold through non-sanctioned countries or were being substituted out with Chinese uh consumer goods. It was impressive. like that part beating pan European sanctions was impressive, right? Keeping a grocery store stocked and like it's a again I'm not that's the nice thing about working in my garage is that I don't need any country's money. So I can sit there and be like yeah dude it's an indictment of the US sanctions regime and it's a a testament to the Russian like ingenuity for beating sanctions that they were able to keep a grocery store that well stocked.

[00:42:00]Tucker has never shoed for groceries in his life. That's a good point. That's That is true. He was born to an incredibly rich family. Um I love how Putin was like, "So Tucker, I heard you got rejected from the CIA." Like, "You mad about that?" Which I thought was [ __ ] hysterical.

[00:42:26]Uh Tucker's a massive Nepo baby for sure. Um, but you know what? Listen, here's here's what I'll say again. And I am I am not a Tucker fan, but I admire his ability to be a media survivor. Lots of rich people do not last in media, and Tucker sure [ __ ] has. 25 years that dude's been on TV having takes, and he's just keeps getting hired. He keeps blowing up. He keeps being big. It's crazy. It's wild. He just He just is a survivor. And if you want to know the way the winds are shifting, you can always look to Tucker Carlson to tell you.

[00:43:10]Interesting. I got to rewatch it. I should re rewatch it. Char was amazed by the tribulators and cart coins. That's so funny. All while buying chicken and white brand milk to get the cheapest food possible.

[00:43:23]The funny thing is is that about the Iran versus North Korea logic is that um the North Koreans built a nuke and we didn't do anything to stop it. We were really kind of unbothered by it. The South Koreans were talked out of buying bu building their own nuclear weapons by the United States because they were NPT signatur signatories and the US was like fine but we'll put nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula. But now the problem is that when the President Trump goes I don't think I'm going to help those Koreans. The Koreans are like Jesus Christ we you told us it was a nuclear deterrent. You told us you were the nuclear deterrent and now you're like I don't know if I'm gonna show up.

[00:44:04]Like what the [ __ ] man?

[00:44:07]You know, they're like the North Koreans are like are like 25 minutes away by car.

[00:44:14]So the the uh yeah the the comparison is just wild because Israel the by contrast one is a robust distance from Iran and I don't mean that like like they don't share a land border and Israel is a nuclear armed state. Now, I know you're like, "Israel says they don't have a nuclear weapon." But the person who released the videos and photographs and technical data about the Israeli nuclear program was charged with espionage, which should uh not be possible if it wasn't true. Like if I tell you that I went to Area 51 and I got to um uh do the Fortnite dance with an alien, I won't get charged with espionage because that's transparently false.

[00:45:08]But that's not the case. So obviously Israel has a nuclear weapon. They have a nuclear arsenal and they are willing uh they are like able to use it. So if deterrence works on the Korean peninsula and nuclear deterrence works between Pakistan and India, India and China, China and the United States, China and Russia, Russia and the United States, right? If that works every other place, then why on earth are we so worried? Also, because if we say the Israelis have nuclear weapons, which they do, it is illegal for us to sell them weapons.

[00:45:44]Oreo pup don't agree with with their politics. Minus touch is accurate.

[00:45:48]Exactly. I I'm kind of the same way. I think Midas touch is like what I appreciate is that Midas touch breaking points is excellent. They are willing to cover it. It reveals just how editorialized like many mainstream outlets are and and and that I think is the concern is that you have you have Fox News who covers news so inaccurately that it becomes falsehood. Um, but then you like New York Times and stuff, they will cover stories in a really they will select stories that are heavily biased and they will ignore stories that are not. Like the New York Times covering Gaza, you'd think it was Kabool, right? You'd think it was like the gentlest military occupation of all time. But like then you're like there's stories about like, hey, there's no hospitals in Gaza. Hey, there's no medical facilities. You'd have like doctors being like, "Yo, I volunteered in Gaza and there's a lot of kids that someone keeps putting bullets in and you're like, uh, New York Times, is this at all relevant to you?" And that I appreciate that Midas Touch is willing to do it for negative stories about the establishment DNC and negative stories about um the the Trump administration, right? and and and against again like oftentimes it's Israel being like negative stories about Israel is like the third rail that just mainstream media will not touch on either side and that's that's pretty frustrating interesting general consens all assuring me Trump could never win the election Harris would be our next president cuz she's so awesome Uh, Midas Touch had a lot of gripes with Kamla, but I yeah, I think they also did that thing that annoys me and and pro Ukrainian YouTubers do it too where they it's one thing to say, hey, the Ukrainians are our ally. They're a democratically elected country and they were unjustly invaded by their neighbor.

[00:47:51]Like, those are true facts that I that we can all agree on. But that doesn't mean that the Ukrainian army only wins and Russia only loses. We've discussed at length that that is not the case. The problem is that there's a class of of Ukrainian Ukraine English language Ukraine news channel who covers every story like the Ukrainians only win and the Russians only lose. And the problem you have there is that one at some point you separate yourself from reality. You go, "Hey man, how have the Ukrainians spent four years doing nothing but winning when the Russia keeps taking territory?" Right? You have to have a cleareyed assessment of reality.

[00:48:30]Um, and I and when you have hyperartisan outlets like Midas Touch, you get that.

[00:48:36]Like I get it. Donald Trump's like pretty dumb and pretty crooked and and probably a fascist and or or and he employs a lot of white nationalists, but you cannot sit there and be like, "And he'll never win an election or nobody likes him or the polling data says things are great."

[00:48:57]So again, um the that's the danger I think in those is that they can prevent people from recognizing um events that require their action and and and like the in the desire to denigrate your enemies and the inability to conceptualize your enemies as meaningful threats.

[00:49:25]Breaking Points does annoy me with Sager's Ukraine takes. Sager's Ukraine takes really annoy me a lot, but they like he is the anti- aid person where I'm like he at least forms an argument that is based around facts.

[00:49:46]Like again, Douglas McGregor is like uh Russia's the Russia was actually threatened. Russia's the bad guy. Ah, you're like whatever.

[00:49:57]Like again, Breaking Points is anti is anti- Ukraine, especially Sager. But that but that's the difference because like they're not they don't state things that are incorrect. There's a few times there's a few things they say where I'm like hey you get that was like incorrect when they're like the US has given Ukraine everything they need. I I've been like no and they've given Ukraine the best material we have. No, no, no.

[00:50:20]They have not given Ukraine any material that was made after like the year 2000.

[00:50:25]Okay, those highar systems that are like rocking the Russians, those rockets were manufactured in the '90s.

[00:50:39]Listen, don't remind me about Midas Touch and their ability to build like a massive media empire on on non-stop cope. It it hurts my soul to know that those guys reach 10 times many people and probably make 10 times as much money as I do and don't have to be in their garage, but all they all they have to do is just is just partisan cope. Just be mad all the time at the same enemy consistently forever. Um and and being like and my my soul will not let me become that person. Um, but uh my soul won't let me become that person.

[00:51:21]But every time I'm like, damn, I could drive like a way nicer car, you know?

[00:51:28]Especially now. Some reason Chevy can't fix my stupid stupid car. American auto manufacturers, I hate you so much. So much. I will never buy an Americanmade car again. Holy crap.

[00:51:47]Don't I know I'm complaining about like rich guy stuff. Just just just let me do it.

[00:51:53]Uh secular talk. I see you, Tom. Uh oh.

[00:51:57]Oh, Kyle Klinsky. Kyle Klinsky is married to Crystal Ball. They are they are married.

[00:52:03]Uh Kyle is also in the in the um Midas touch like like um I mean listen dunking on the manga movement is so easy. It can be that could be your only content and it is so easy. It's going to be harder when they have to like do other stuff, you know.

[00:52:27]But yeah, I I I think just like the the dunking on uh dunking on it's just easy.

[00:52:36]Dunking on MAGA is so easy, you know.

[00:52:44]I see you, Josie. Toyota makes more of the vehicles in the US than GM does.

[00:52:46]Yeah. The crucial part is the Japanese design Toyota vehicles and the Japanese just have a different set of priorities.

[00:52:54]Here's here's an example.

[00:52:56]in in my current car 2019, right? Um I start getting a tire pressure sensor goes out. Tire pressure is fine. Sensor says, "We can't read your tire pressure." So I go in, I take it to the dealer. Dealer's like, "Hey, we did a diagnostic." And by the way, your tire the tire pressure sensors in this car are powered by batteries. They're not powered by the gigantic battery inside the car that's charged by the engine.

[00:53:21]They're powered by literally [ __ ] AA like watch batteries. and they just run out. Oh, and by the way, they make it so you can't replace the battery. You have to replace the entire sensor. And they all go down at once and it cost you $800 to replace them all. And I'm like, this car is barely worth $800. And I'm like, GM designed a a car that that is a car that runs out of batteries, that breaks when the batteries run out.

[00:53:53]Like, Jesus Christ, dude.

[00:53:57]Okay. I also like Valhalla a lot like like Valhalla is is is like I admire the fact that he is based and he is nonpartisan. Like he just is like this is dumb, this is real. Even when he's like conspiratorial, I'm like he's in his wheelhouse. I don't think he's always right, but you know, like his conspiracy, they're even in his wheelhouse.

[00:54:29]Yeah, I want to have more guests on the live stream. Did you guys like when Claire was on here? Because if you did, we can do more of that. JL Fuel stack, thanks for the 10. If Iron gives it enriched material and pursuit of nukes, but gets a charge toll on the straight or gets its sanction dropped, would you say that you came out better from this?

[00:54:45]Um uh well okay today the status quo auntie is that Iran has enriched material but was not pursuing a nuclear weapon. So the only thing we're talking about giving up is its enriched material. Um now one just the terms you described i.e. giving up its existing stockpile of enriched uranium. Uh well, they can just enrich more with centrifuges and it they were not actively pursuing nuclear weapons. That was their policy.

[00:55:19]Their policy was enriched uranium, robust missile systems and they said in the event that things went really crazy, we want to be able to they call it breakout time. Go when they decide they want to be able to go, okay, put the enriched uranium in the bomb, put the bomb in the missile. Boom. We have a nuclear weapon. We have a nuclear deterrent.

[00:55:40]Um, confirm it's really you. Interesting.

[00:55:45]What What just happened here?

[00:55:48]Uh, sorry. I'm I'm checking. I'm getting a weird notification from Google telling me to confirm that it's really me. Uh, let me see really fast. I got to check this.

[00:56:02]I I mean, there's plenty of weird [ __ ] especially now that I'm like um saying saying uh uh making engaging in protected speech regarding our uh closest ally.

[00:56:23]Obviously, I worry.

[00:56:30]Yeah. Okay. Okay, Google. Yeah, don't don't don't abandon me.

[00:56:37]So, anyway, sorry to get back to this.

[00:56:39]Um, Fuller, the only thing you're in your scenario, the only thing Iran gives up is some of its already enriched uranium. Other than that, we return to the status quoanti, which is Iran not really moving towards a nuclear weapon.

[00:56:51]Um, then it starts to make money on the straight and gets its sanctions dropped.

[00:56:57]So again, walk me through what the US gained.

[00:57:04]Again, the DNI, and I don't really like or trust Tulsi Gabbard, but she said the exact same thing that Biden's DNI said, which is that the Iranians enriched uranium, but have not moved to get a nuclear weapon.

[00:57:20]And and I'm with him. I think that the JPCOA would have worked better because and the longer Iran complied with it, the less the the more sanctions were dropped. And the more sanctions are dropped, the less crazy the regime has an incentive to be.

[00:57:43]Okay, guys. I actually see Oh, shoot.

[00:57:45]It's five. All right. I have to do that thing where I, you know, am a dad to my kids. Um, but we'll see you guys tomorrow. Tomorrow. Maybe tomorrow.

[00:57:55]Maybe I was replaced by AI and never noticed.

[00:57:58]I wish. I wish. Trust me, if I was AI, you know, I used to be like, if I was a computer, I would remember everything perfectly. But no, my AI, like any AI I use also forgets [ __ ] all the time. So maybe every time I forget something, it's because I'm an LLM, you know?

[00:58:18]I'm sorry.

[00:58:20]I'm sorry that's not your name.

[00:58:23]I'll remember it next time.

[00:58:26]Winston Hurricane OG. Thanks for US bent the knee to Ukraine for defensive drones to mitigate Iran [ __ ] Could the US turn this conflict around after scaling?

[00:58:34]Uh, okay. It's not bending the knee. If Ukraine is literally handing you the drones, um, I think you mean Trump bending the knee by admitting that he needs or that we need Ukraine's help. Um the US the conflict I think may actually be turning around. The US can turn the conflict around at any time as can any European country simply by granting um uh uh Ukraine um uh not even access but to let them fly F-35s over flights. Um as we've seen F-35s slice through Russian air defenses like it's going out of style. And even if they only hit a couple dozen strategic targets, the ability to put a JDAM onto key Russian logistics points is massively powerful.

[00:59:24]Not as much as it was maybe a year ago, but still pretty significant. Um, uh, the US could turn this conflict around at any time of its choosing, right?

[00:59:45]Yeah. Again, it's not bending the knee.

[00:59:47]The only person who views it as bending the knee is is Trump himself. The United States receiving assistance from our allies to achieve mutual objectives is um that is how an alliance works. Just like that's why UK troops fought shoulder-to-shoulder with Americans for years in Iraq. Uh that's why the entire NATO deployed to Afghanistan. It's because when you have allies, they back you up. They show up for you in in ways big and small. Like it's not an it it it's like people like, "Are you less of a man because your neighbor watches your chickens when you're on vacation?" I'm like, "No, dude. We look out for each other. There's nothing more manly than bros protecting bros." Like, I don't know. That's like That's like a thing in the military. That's like the thing in the military, actually. Okay, I got to go. Got to be a parent. Um, thank you guys. I will see you. I'll definitely be making videos tomorrow. I Oh, yeah. It's It's Wednesday, dude. You're seeing