Australia: This Massive Bomb Cyclone Will Be Severe...

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:01]Good day folks. My name is Josh from Cyclones Oz and this is your detailed afternoon update on the severe weather situation across southwestern Australia as a bomb cyclone approaches the southern coast. This is one of the most prolific wind related severe weather events we've seen so far this decade and will continue to produce wind gusts up to 140 km an hour tonight for areas south of Perth as we head into the most severe weather period this state has seen since 2022. But first things first, if you are brand new to my channel, please do consider subscribing. We're so close to 100,000 here on YouTube and I can't do it without you. And a massive thank you to all of the recent support.

[00:00:34]Plus a warm welcome to the 220 new subscribers over on the brand new website cyclones.com.au/subscriber link in the pin comments. But let's get stuck straight into the situation right now. Looking at the current satellite picture, you can see that there 977 millibars. That is a very strong and deep area of extropical low pressure.

[00:00:55]This uh well and truly constitutes the official definition of bomb cyclloenesis because just 24 hours ago this system had a pressure of 105 hecttopascals indicating a rate of intensification greater than 1 mibar per hour over a 24-hour period. That is bomb cylogenesis. This is a very intense area of low pressure here and it's generating a massive pool of powerful southwesterly and westerly winds that are beginning to brush up into the southwestern land division with the weather conditions getting progressively more severe, deteriorating quicker and quicker as we head into the afternoon and early evening hours. Still no discussion on whether or not the foot is going to go ahead tonight. Fingers crossed it does, but this video should come out a couple of hours beforehand. We'll see what happens. So, let us know what the conditions are in your neck of the woods in the comments section down below. As stated, the forecast has this system getting progressively more and more severe as we head in towards the later hours of this afternoon and this evening. By now, we're likely seeing severe winds with sustained winds between 80 to 90 km an hour, gusts to 125 to 140 km an hour across our southwestern Capes and south coastal region between Augusta out to Windy Harour. Winds are going to begin to creep into the Bustleton and Bunbury city areas in the next hour or so. and they'll arrive in Mandra by around 400 p.m. We're likely to see these very destructive wind gusts approach in the Perth metro area out to about 5 or 6:00 tonight coinciding with a kickoff of the footy which is likely to coincide with the most significant severe weather threat that this storm has. The most severe weather is going to come through on this southwesterly blast here. You can see there's kind of two channels of wind. We get this northwesterly/westerly flow here which is going to come through in the early evening hours that's most likely to be more prolific for the Mandra and Bumbrey regions. And then we get this massive southwesterly surge of wind here. It's brief, but it's large and it's powerful coming in into the later evening hours and early nighttime hours. So, the first one here about 5 to 7:00 here for the Mandra and Perth regions. This one here about 8:00 onwards for the south coastal and southwestern Capes regions. This one here is going to be the stronger one, but this one here will likely be more impactful as it's impacting more people.

[00:02:55]It will likely impact, well, this one up here will likely impact the Bundry and Perth metro regions quite significantly.

[00:03:00]With any passing shower or storm, we could be looking at wind gusts well in excess of 100 km an hour. Probably getting closer to 130 or even 140 km an hour over Bunry. And I'll explain why in just a second. Wind gusts are definitely the main talking point here. Offshore modeling has these winds approaching 140 km an hour. The access convective forecast modeling here has got wind gusts far stronger than that, particularly into the earlier hours of this evening with maximum wind gusts here approaching 150 km an hour along the coast. That is a possibility particularly with how strong the lower level jet is. But at this point in time, the roof for these winds seems to be about 130 to 135 km an hour. So we're seeing a few forecasts come out online with, you know, 160 km an hour wind gusts. It's just not going to happen.

[00:03:43]That's absolutely preposterous. And if it does happen, that would be not only record-breaking likely for many locations if that was to occur, but that sort of reporting does create a little bit of fear and panic within the community. Keep in mind, we're talking about a once in a 3 to 5 year weather event here. Wind gusts of that caliber would be closer to a once in a 25-y year event. Whilst this is still a very prolific wind event, we're not talking about complete destruction or devastation potential. We're just talking about some scattered damages here and there. So, I want you to keep that in mind and stay calm as we enter the most severe period of this storm.

[00:04:14]Provided you stay inside, you've cleaned up the backyard, you've pruned the trees and the gardens, you've got the gutters all cleaned up, there's very little for you to worry about with this severe weather event. And that's why preparation in an event like this is absolutely paramount and that's where I come in. So head over to cyclones.com.au/subscribe.

[00:04:30]I can guarantee you at least 2 or 3 days of advanced warning with these severe weather systems. Sometimes especially in tropical events up to 5 days of advanced warning ahead of severe weather threats and we'll only notify you when severe weather needs your attention. So no spam, no advertisements, no jargon. That is a guarantee. Uh storm surge and wave related impacts are really beginning to become apparent across our southwestern land division. We're already seeing some pretty significant footage coming out of the Rottest Island area as well as through the Perth Peele region. A lot of roads beginning to go under as well around Perth and especially through our coastal suburbs of Fremantle and then down towards Mandra. We're beginning to see some pretty significant wave related impacts through those regions. You can see waves out here are expected to reach their maximum later tonight, approaching 10, 10, even 11 m. Currently we have a swell of 9.58 meters offshore from Cape Naturalist and that is about 2 meters above what's what is actually forecast to occur right now. You can see peak waves here offshore from Cape Naturalist actually 3 m in excess of what uh was actually forecast. So we're looking at a massive a very very significant weather event here which is far surpassing what the forecast was suggesting. So any talk about this system being downgraded by bomb or by the models is complete and utter rubbish. This system is not being downgraded. It's getting stronger and it's getting more and more prolific for the southwestern land divisions.

[00:05:48]Rainfall is going to be a considerable situation as well, particularly up into the hills where we could be looking at a further 50 mm through this afternoon and into this evening. Uh it's going to be those passing squaly showers and thunderstorms that deliver the heaviest rainfall. There could be some flash flooding and some gouging of dry land through the hills and maybe into some of our other suburbs as well, particularly the wetter suburbs down in the south and through the southeast. But at this point in time, this isn't so much of a rainfall event as it is a wind event.

[00:06:12]We're just going to be looking at quite a lot of rainfall coming through here.

[00:06:15]Unfortunately, because of how quick these showers are going to move and the fact that this low pressure system is actually situated far enough south to not really impact the wheat belt, our key growing regions into the wheat belt, we're only likely to see 10 to 15 mm of rainfall. And that includes what's already fallen for these areas. So, a lot of places are actually going to be left quite dry from this weather event here. And coupling that with a pretty strong winds that we're seeing coming through, not the best case scenario here, particularly for those that have already seated or have seated just recently. Better falls are expected into the western portions of the wheat belt.

[00:06:43]The south coast as well should see some decent falls right out to about Esperence. Falls there between 20 to 30 mm are generally expected. But again, those wetest spots will be in the hills and your traditionally wet locations such as dwelling up Collie and Bickley.

[00:06:55]Now the meteorology behind this event is quite complicated. First things first, we've got a lot of instability in the atmosphere. Now instability is that lifting motion. It's what gets thunderstorms off the ground. It's what generates these, you know, very squaly and gusty and thundery showers. And whilst we don't have much instability present in the atmosphere right now, hence the fact that these showers don't have much in the way of thunder and lightning and are also uh believe it or not quite tame in comparison to what's likely to come through later tonight.

[00:07:20]Instability reaches its maximum along a surface trough which is going to protrude out and impact the southwestern Capes similar to what a cold front is going to do. That's how strong this little trough is going to be protruding out of the low pressure system tonight.

[00:07:32]That's that second band of severe weather coming through that we talked about at the start of the forecast update. Lots of lift, lots of instability associated with it and that's going to get these thunderstorms or squaly thunderstorms developing along very nicely. Typically in a cold front we see instability values between 100 to 300. This time around we've got nearly triple that. In a few spots here approaching 7 or 800 jewels per kilogram of cape or convective available potential energy, indicating to us that we're going to have a very stormy environment here tonight. Now coinciding with that southwesterly jet coming through later tonight, we could be expecting a period of very severe weather conditions here south of Mandra through our southern coastal regions here protruding into portions of the southern Darling range out to about Albany. Now this is the area to really watch out for tonight. Uh not only do we have the very strong surface low moving through these regions, but we've also got a little bit of instability present in the atmosphere. And as we've discussed in previous forecast updates, that lower level jet is going to rip over this region. So the winds at 850, which is 1500 m off the surface, coinciding with when that instability or that trough moves over the region, could be as strong as 150 km an hour and as you get further out towards the east, up to 160 km an hour. A low-level jet of this caliber is about 25% stronger than what you'd expect in a traditional winter's coldfront or southerntherly blast across southwestern WA. And that 25% not might not sound like much, but it is the icing on the cake in a storm situation like this. It takes it from the severe level to the very severe level. And this is going to be quite a concern for areas around and just to the north of Bundry here up to about Albany uh Albany Mandro rather where we do have a corridor of very severe shower related wind gusts moving through. It's not going to be tornatic in nature. We don't have that much spin or turn in the atmosphere throughout the course of today. So the risk of tornadoes like we saw last night, which I'm going to talk about in just a second, um isn't really present at least for the Bundrey area, but micro burst. So, when you get those downdrafts coming from those thunderstorms, which are going to have a field day in the environment here, that's going to bring those severe winds from the 1500 m level here or 850 level down to the surface very quickly, which means that those winds won't have time to ease off or die down and could be very significant when they impact certain locations. Now, that's what's creating this very gusty mess. When we're looking at showers coming through, which you can see right now on the radar imagery, these showers are, you know, they look relatively tame. They're pretty small and isolated and patchy in nature, but when they come through, they are packing a mean punch. You're looking at massive wind gusts coming through.

[00:09:55]You know, sheets of water being blown over the road, pushing the car around.

[00:09:59]It makes it quite difficult and borderline hazardous to drive around in.

[00:10:02]That's what we're looking at here with this weather event coming through. So, really quite significant and it's going to get worse as we head out in towards tonight. Again, like we said a little bit earlier on, this isn't an event that's going to, say, bulldoze your house or cause massive concerns on that front, but it is an event that has some damage potential, and particularly to those that have been complacent or haven't prepared with this system, uh there is some serious risks uh involved with, you know, going into this one with your eyes shut. Like I said, the writing has been on the wall here for the last couple of days. You really, you kind of have to be a certain type of silly to not heed these warnings here or to not take it seriously. The modeling has been rock solid for about 7 days now. Uh, and the fact that the severe weather warning was issued so late not only was quite a concern to me, but it also goes to show that this system here has caught a lot of people off guard. Uh, and there has been a lot of complacency in the community. So, this really isn't ideal, especially when you've got a winter storm coming through of this caliber.

[00:10:54]This is quite a significant weather system here moving through. Now, whilst we're on the router imagery, I just want to pull your attention back to last night, specifically at about 1:15 in the morning in some of Perth's northeastern suburbs. We had a suspected tornado move through. Now, I can't show you on this imagery because I don't have velocity, but we had this QLCS system here or a quasi linear convective system.

[00:11:15]Essentially, just a thunderstorm with, you know, a couple of cells embedded within it. Not too much in the way of thunder or lightning within this one, but we have this little bit of a hook here and that indicated that coupled with a uh, you know, a bit of a a rotation couplet on the velocity imagery that suggested that there was some rotation here into the hills. This storm system moved through the hills. Now, we don't have any confirmation as to whether or not this was a tornado. And I doubt that that will ever be the case because when it was likely to be tornatic, it was actually moving over the uh Mandaring State Forest or the forest just at the back of Calamanda.

[00:11:46]So, in essence, impacting nobody. We'll have a look at satellite imagery in a few weeks to see if we can see any kind of damage path here. But I don't think that this was something that caused any uh serious damage or so, but this is probably the best case that we have here for a potential tornatic event last night. We knew that something like this would happen with the amount of storm relative helicity in the atmosphere and it's clever forecasting like that that really puts uh my page and my network ahead of the curve. So this was you know accurately forecasted by ourselves and if it was a tornado and it was definitely a rotating aspect of the thunderstorm with very significant wind gusts associated with it. It's just does it meet the clarifications of a tornado?

[00:12:22]Bit of a question mark right now but very interesting to see and I have to say it missed be my it missed where I am by a matter of kilometers. So quite hairy that one there. That's for sure.

[00:12:32]So interesting interesting stuff.

[00:12:34]Hopefully we don't see anything like that tonight. Again with a lackluster amount of storm relative hiccity or spin in the atmosphere. You can see that quite clearly here by the uh winds as we get out to about or tonight. You can see winds on the surface here coming out of the west. And as you drag it up to the lower levels here, winds still out of the west even into the mid- levels here.

[00:12:51]Very little turn in the atmosphere. So whilst windshare is quite high, bulk windshare values is quite high, we don't actually have that much storm relative humicity, which is a key ingredient for getting tornadoes to develop within these thunderstorms. Windshar is going to organize these thunderstorms up quite nicely. And again, that just presents us with even more of a risk uh as we go on towards tonight with these shower storms that are going to come through, but the risk of tornadoes or tornatic related events is not that high. In essence though, we could be looking at things here feeling like tornatic events.

[00:13:20]That's how significant this storm is uh in terms of its prolific wind threat coming through across the southwestern land division. Now, I just want to spend the last couple of minutes here talking about a bit of advice. I mean, obviously, this storm is directly impacting me, so I've got to admit to a little bit of coverage bias here. A storm like this is obviously going to get me quite excited and worked up and I'll admit to that. Very passionate about these uh sort of severe weather systems. But it is quite hazardous to be out and about uh in a storm of this caliber here. Again, a once in a fiveyear storm. This is not something we see every year. It's not something we see every winter. This is quite a lot stronger than what we're used to here across southwestern WA. If you are planning on driving around, please do so very carefully tonight. Take roads that are a little bit more protected. I mean, I came up Tonkan Highway this morning and my car was being buffeted around and it's uh not like I was, you know, fanging it down Tonken Highway and it's not like it was the most severe portion of tonight's event here. So, it's likely considerably windier at this point in time. So, please drive carefully. Please be very careful when you're out there out and about uh over the course of today. This is a very significant wind rellated event coming through. If you're commuting out to the footy, then take public transport. Utilize public transport. It's great in this city, particularly when you've got footy games on like this. Rug up, stay warm, grab a poncho. You might, I mean, forget the umbrella. You're going to get wet, but grab a poncho or a rain jacket. That's how you're going to, you know, stay dry and stay a little bit warmer through this severe weather event. Conditions should be pretty quick to ease as we head out towards tomorrow morning. It's going to be quite windy to start off in the early hours of tomorrow morning across the southwestern land divisions, but by sunrise it should be be beginning to calm down for the Perth metro area.

[00:14:52]And by later hours of the morning and into the early hours of the afternoon, Albany should be beginning to calm down.

[00:14:56]And then eventually it will get clearer and calmer as we head out in towards the west. It does look like another weaker cold front is going to brush up against the southwest land divisions late tomorrow night, Monday, or into early Tuesday morning. This one here could deliver us some more rainfall and maybe even a strong wind gust or two to portions of the Great Southern region.

[00:15:12]But at this point in time, this one doesn't look like it's got too much in the way of punch, especially when compared to the one that has just gone through, at least for the Perth metro area. I would just like to say though that for the south coast, I've just noticed here based off the latest modeling between Albany out to Augusta, there could be some pretty significant winds uh wind gusts coming through here on Tuesday. And when you couple that with lingering very large swell and wave heights here across our south coastal regions, more coastal erosion and more significant coastal related impacts are going to be a possibility as this winter system comes through on Tuesday. So please do keep that in mind across the south coastal regions. There could be some, you know, more prolific borderline severe weather conditions coming through as we head out towards late Monday night and through Tuesday morning and into the early afternoon. These two systems will then move out into the great Australian bite. They're not expected to be too much in the way of significance of the weather threats for southeastern Australia. We'll continue to have updates on that as we head out towards the later portions of the of next week.

[00:16:05]And then in the wake of this system here, high pressure briefly redevelops across southwestern WA. So fingers crossed this gives us a little bit of reprieve to the weather here. We might need a bit of time to, you know, mop up and clean up in the wake of this very substantial storm threat that we've seen unfold across southwestern WA. That anyways will do it for today's weather forecast update. Thank you very much for watching to this point in time. And again, thank you so much to everybody that has subscribed over to the new website. I cannot believe the amount of support and all the feedback that I'm getting as well. I'm truly so excited to launch this new venture here with Cyclones O and we're taking it to the next level. This is no longer just a YouTube channel or social media portfolio to me. This is now an actual weather related business and we're aiming to take it industryleading around Australia. Uh we want the severe weather market here and I cannot wait to fill it for you. That though will do it for today's weather forecast update. Of course, head over to the website cyclones.com.au/subscribe and get in on the ground floor. prices.

[00:16:58]Prices will rise as we head out towards the end of the year. So, no better time than now than to subscribe, particularly ahead of severe weather season. Have a wonderful remainder of your Sunday.

[00:17:05]Enjoy the footy or enjoy kicking back and watching it on TV. I'll catch you on the next storm. Goodbye.