Election Expert Makes SHOCKING Midterm Prediction | Republicans Could SWEEP

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[00:00:00]All right, I am here with Brent Buchanan, the CEO and founder of Signal.

[00:00:04]And uh my question to you, Brent, is obviously we're like six months away from the midterms right now. So I want to take each place separately. We'll start with the House, then we'll go to the Senate. How do you feel about the House? How are things going for Republicans who are, you know, in my opinion, not probably going to do well?

[00:00:20]But is that greatly exaggerated? Do you think it's going to be close or do you not think it's going to be close at all?

[00:00:26]Well, it's important to realize that 6 months is a political eternity. Uh it's like 196 days or something. I I didn't check recently. Um exactly what it is, but that that is an incredibly long time. Um even to early voting in states like Virginia, where I live, that early voting starts almost a month before the election. We're still a long way from that point. And with Donald Trump in the White House, we're we're also like 13 news cycles >> away from the election. So, who knows what we're even going to be talking about once voters decide to tune in. You know, right now, when you look at any polling data on the midterm elections, you're you're really just looking at the most locked in people who are obsessed with politics. Um, you know, especially on the left. the left is is much more attuned into um to politics and and paying attention to these because they just absolutely hate Donald Trump and it really drives this this anger that they have and this hatred drives their attention. Um and politics is their religion on the left for the most part.

[00:01:33]So, as I look at our polling and other people's polling at this point, and this is a long answer to get into the house, but I want to I want to set the table stakes first for this in that uh you know, it's it doesn't really matter until Labor Day. Um because that's when a lot of your your less attuned voters who are more likely to vote Republicans start paying attention to the midterms.

[00:01:55]Uh and so with that, I would say if the election were held today that the Republicans probably lose the House. I mean, you've only got a couple seat margin to deal with. I think you also have some really good incumbents on the Republican side. They're going to overperform. Uh maybe if if a random new Republican was thrown into that district, they would lose. But the incumbent Republican, especially some of the newer freshmen, I think are going to be able to hold on to their seats. The problem is like what comes online that that we were not expecting because of all this redistricting. So take Texas for example. you know, they they redrew and added five Republican seats to the mix, but assuming that the 24 electorate was what the 26 electorate was going to look like. So, some of those seats that, you know, should have had a multi- um point Republican margin right now, I would say, are probably upside down. So, hell, today we lose the House, but I I am not convinced that that's definitely going to be the case um come November.

[00:02:50]It it could get worse, but I'm optimistic that the political environment actually gets better. The economy turns around. The Iran war is over. Um, you know, these tariff refunds, I think, are actually going to be a boon to the economy and to lines.

[00:03:04]>> So, it's almost like Trump's playing 5D chess.

[00:03:07]>> Yeah, I I agree with you that it's like three months maybe max before the election that actually matters at all.

[00:03:14]But then the real question, you kind of brought this up, but if we could go more into this, what do Republicans then need to do between now and Labor Day to actually cement themselves as a uh potential, you know, toss up to win the House?

[00:03:26]>> Republicans are a really good opposition party. So when we're not in power, we're locked in and we are on message and we are firing on the Democrats and making the contrast of of our beliefs and ideology compared to what the Democrats are doing and destroying the country.

[00:03:44]We're not as good of a governing party.

[00:03:46]Um especially in Congress. Trump is very good at governing. Um most Republican, this is not an indictment on the current House and Senate leadership. This is like a generational problem that Republicans have that once we get the the reigns, we're almost like the the dog who caught the car. And so we have to actually start delivering on some stuff. You know, if we can't just get out there and only contrast and say, "Look at how insane the Democrats are.

[00:04:12]If you give them power, here's what's going to happen to you." That that is a helpful message. But we have to be able to say, "And we did A and we did B and we did C and we did E and we promised you all those things and and we're delivering." Trump can't be the only one who's delivering through executive order. Congress has to actually get out there and pass things. Like, why is the Save Act not passed? We We could pass that through the House and the Senate.

[00:04:33]We control both. And for some reason, we're not. And that would be a huge win for the Republican base because elections aren't just about persuasion anymore. You got to get your base fired up and showing up. And that is probably twice as important as persuasion is. And so if we're not delivering on conservative priorities and if we're not delivering on um the if we're not delivering on e economic issues, then what are we going to be able to run on?

[00:05:02]>> Yeah, I agree with that. To take the devil's advocate side for that. So again, maybe this is a two-part question then to you. Would you be then in support of ending the filibuster?

[00:05:10]Because if you're a Democrat right now, I think they're thinking the same thing you are, which is if the legislature actually gets in line and starts passing the Save Act, for example, or maybe a couple other smaller bills before the midterms, there's a good chance Republicans could rally, especially considering the polls even now don't look nearly as bad as they did in 2018, for example. If you're a Democrat, you're looking at that and you're thinking, I'm not going to budge one inch. So, they're not going to get the 60 votes that they need in the Senate.

[00:05:36]So, does that mean that you're in favor of ending the filibuster? I'm conflicted on the filibuster because the second Democrats get control of Congress again, if they get control of the Senate specifically, they are going to end the filibuster. So, it's not really a question of will the filibuster exist or not. It is who who kills it, us or them.

[00:05:58]And either we kill it and pass our priorities or they kill it and pass their priorities. But five years from now, the filibuster won't exist.

[00:06:07]>> Yeah. I think my ideal I don't know how this could be done practically, but I just think the silent filibuster is the biggest problem, right? I think if people like actually want a filibuster and actually talk for 24 hours and put their money where their mouth is, I I I would be in favor of that. But I agree that the silent filibuster is a big problem. So, switching now from the House, which is a totally different story, to the Senate. What is your outlook right now and then what you think maybe it will look like when we're closer to the election? It's a really uphill climb for Democrats like because there are three sets of Senate seats, one of which is up every two years in the six-year cycle for those seats. This is not a great cycle for them um to pick up seats. That is now I think that North Carolina is going to be really challenging for Republicans. That that is currently a Republican well quote Republican. It's Tillis. Um but that's going to be a hard one. you know, the the former governor Cooper on the Democratic side is a powerhouse name.

[00:07:06]He's been there forever. He's raising crap tons of money. We put a lobbyist up against him. It's not a great like contrast for voters in that state.

[00:07:14]Georgia is going to be really hard to win regardless of who the appoint, you know, it outside of Governor Kemp magically becoming the nominee, that's a really tough one to beat Oaf. So, that's a one loss and zero pickup in Georgia.

[00:07:28]>> You know, I'm bullish on Michigan. Um, I cannot wait for Democrats to nominate a radical on their side in that open seat.

[00:07:36]And we've got Mike Rogers who has built name ID um from his last run in 24 where he almost won. Um, so that that is to me the only real pickup opportunity on the Republican side. Um, you know, Susan Collins in Maine, which is a necessary hold. like I don't know if we'll ever win that seat again when she's no longer the senator because that's one of the few states that has shifted left.

[00:08:01]>> Yeah.

[00:08:01]>> Um >> but she she can pull rabbits out of hats and has in past elections. So even if the polling shows her down, I can see her winning. Um and then you get to, you know, what do Democrats have to do? So they flipped North Carolina. There's one seat. Um, now they've got to go and try to flip Iowa, which some polling came out today from a a friend's polling from a mine, Echelon, that showed um that Senate seat really close and in the Democrat leading the governor's race pretty handily, but I just don't think at the end of the day Iowa is structurally going to vote for a Democrat for Senate. They might vote for one for governor. They've done it in the past, but Senate, it's hard to see that happening. um you know they've Democrats have to go win Alaska which held today we might lose that seat but the senator there that's up the Republican Dan Sullivan is just not that well known and and when the race becomes uh more online and he becomes well known like I'm pretty sure we hold on to Alaska. So you start to see the math where they could get there. The environment would have to be just like an absolute bloodbath. gas would have, you know, five dollars a gallon. We're still in RAM. We got boots on the ground. Like that's the scenario that Democrats could potentially win the Senate. But it's it to your point, it's a different ballgame than the House because of the seats that are up in the Senate compared to where the battlegrounds are in the House.

[00:09:30]Yeah, I agree with you. Um, one question that I had for you about Collins specifically is I'm hearing a lot of rhetoric, we've heard it for years at this point, where there are these rhino Republicans who are in the Senate or in the House. And obviously, if you've got a Republican in Texas or here in my home state of Utah, you don't want a rhino Republican. There's no reason for them to be there. But I have a really hard time personally understanding the attacks on people like Collins when it's like, "Yes, maybe she doesn't vote with you even 50% of the time, but if a Democrat was there, they would vote for you 0% of the time." Is that the same philosophy that you have when it comes to these more moderate Republicans in states like Maine?

[00:10:08]>> Yeah. And and I think that gets brought up because we have squishy Republicans and red seats that shouldn't be there.

[00:10:14]>> Yeah.

[00:10:15]>> You know, not to call out your senator, but you did get a new one that's kind of squishy. um he's not a Mike Lee. So, >> it's it's a two-sided problem, but at the end of the day, it's math. Politics is math.

[00:10:28]>> And having Susan Collins, who I think actually votes like 90% of the time, 95% of the time with Republicans, just not on the big stuff. Um then, yeah, let's take her seat because Democrats would 100% allow a Kristen Cinema Kirsten Cinema in Arizona to to stray a little bit because that's math for them. Yep.

[00:10:50]Yeah. One problem that I have with the conservative movement in general right now and something that I speak probably more about than anything else is uh these right-wing figures who are kind of on the right, but they're most mostly alt-right. I don't even know if they're very conservative. And I'm very concerned that they are going to overtake the conservative movement in the same way that the radicals have taken over the left-wing movement. So I was wondering just from a political standpoint, is there anybody right now running for House or for Senate that you're concerned about might actually be that radical type taking over the Republican party? Or in your opinion, has the Republican party maybe apart from the commentariet or the commentators, but the actual politicians, have they done a good job of keeping like the normal people who actually support the party and its platform?

[00:11:34]Yeah, I I'd be hardressed to name somebody who has any influence within the Republican caucus in the Senate or the House that that fits that profile you're describing. I mean, you're there are no Candace Owens in in the House, thank God.

[00:11:49]>> Yeah, thank goodness. Well, one person that does come to mind, I'm curious just how you think this will go, is James Fishbach in Florida. Do you think people like James Fishbach have any hope of winning a governorship in Florida?

[00:12:02]>> No. another thank goodness. Um, but you know, it's it's so easy to get sucked into an echo chamber and it's one of the reasons that I really enjoy being a pollster. Um, I've run political campaigns, governor's races, Senate, Congress, state leg state legislative, all the way down to county commission, everything in between. And I I gave that up after 2018 to focus full-time on being a pollster because I get to be the strategist, but I also don't get sucked into those uh bubbles as easily because I can look at the data and say, "Okay, well, if I were to go on my X feed, I would think that that Fishbach and the some of these fake polls that I've seen come out for him that he's probably funded or people around him have funded to come out like they they don't match reality. he is not winning 30% of the under 30 vote in Florida. And then on top of that, the under 30 vote in Florida is really tiny anyway. So he could win a 100% of them and still never become governor or even get close to it.

[00:12:59]And and it's being able to look at the data and say, "Okay, what here matches the narrative, what doesn't match the narrative, and then how do we use that going forward to actually drive whatever our clients outcome is needed." But that's I poll a lot in Florida. um actually just finished up a poller this weekend and uh James Fishbach will not be governor.

[00:13:21]>> I agree. I agree. One point that I make a lot on my show is that polls matter because without the polls, you're just guessing at the end of the day, but I do get a lot of push back. I'm sure you've seen this online from people saying, "Oh, the polls aren't real. They're just fake." What would you say to those people?

[00:13:38]>> There are some that that is a correct statement to make towards them. you you have to being skeptical is not a bad thing in politics, but but doing a broad brushstroke and saying that all polls I should be skeptical of is uh is inaccurate. And so when you see a result, it's important to anchor that to what has happened in the past. Like does that match is that a feasible believable thing that I'm seeing here or is that a crazy outlier? Um, are there other polls that show somewhat similar, not identical? Um, and then I I don't know how we would ever do this, but like we got to educate people on what a poll is.

[00:14:18]A poll is a snapshot in time that has already happened.

[00:14:21]>> A poll is not a predictive tool to say that three weeks from now, this is going to happen because of this snapshot in time. Now, if you did a poll every week for 10 weeks, then you could probably watch that trend line and and project that trend line forward with some level of confidence that that is going to occur. But they're they're not these magical devices that can magically pull out of a hat exactly. This candid is going to get this much and this candidate's going to get that much. Um, and so part of this is like being an educated consumer about polling, being skeptical of of of the polls that obviously are are pushing a narrative.

[00:14:57]They're propaganda. They're not actually for information purposes. So like, you know, we do on our website, you can go to cygn.al and uh pull up our monthly surveys and read our analysis of how we're doing our data. We don't have conversations as a team saying like, how do we make this look really good for Republicans? let's let's push this lever and let's you know that I don't like how the Democrat performed there. Just change that number. Like we don't have any of those conversations. We look at the data and say how did it come back? Does it follow our processes? Is it uh does it pass all the statistical checks that it needs to because it is just stats at the end of the day. Um and then we put it out there. Uh and and there are others who it it is an agenda in that. But it is a useful necessary tool but you have to be a a an educated consumer about how to to understand read apply and and disregard some polls.

[00:15:50]>> What do you make of cowshi or you know poly market and the prediction markets obviously that is looking forward to what something will be based on where people want to put their money. Do you think that if people are curious on how elections are going that a combination of that and the polls is the right movement? Do you think that the there's just no truth at all in the prediction markets?

[00:16:11]>> It's funny. So there was a I think he was French a French guy who put like 2030 million dollars into the presidential bet on one of those platforms in 24 and uh he bet all the states and what those margins would look like and that Trump would win and he he'd sweep the the the swing states but he ran polling first before he made the bet. Like I think that tells you everything you need to know about the prediction markets is like it's legalized gambling at the end of the day.

[00:16:42]>> Uh and it can work for a presidential race where the world is paying attention. I think it's a lot harder for even control of the Congress or the Senate or down to individual congressional or senate races or governor's races. Like it's the the smaller the pool of money becomes, the easier it is to manipulate the outcomes of those. It's almost impossible to manipulate the outcome of the presidential race on these platforms because they have hundreds of millions maybe billions of dollars flowing through them on these on these various positions that people are taking. But this is another misconception about polling is that its only purpose is to tell you what's going to happen. I I have almost no clients that hire us for that purpose. And 99% of what we do is never seen by anybody except the endpaying client. And they want to know where something is or where something's headed. but they hire us to do a poll to change the outcome. Like they're not looking to know that the race is four points down. They want to know how to close the gap and and get five more points so you win by a point in this race. And so that's what mostly what we're doing in in in polling and survey research is helping answer that question of I'm not where I need to be. How do I get to where I need to be? Who do I talk to? What do I talk to them about? What is the tone in which I need to talk to them? What communication channels do I need to use to reach these various populations? So like that's what real polling is used for in on the private side of things. But but too many people their only experience with polling is going to real clear politics and clicking on some public poll and just seeing a ballot and then I see nothing else about the survey.

[00:18:17]Moving forward to 2028. I know that so much can happen. We have no idea what the primary results are going to be.

[00:18:24]Based on what you are seeing, how are things looking for both the Democrat and the Republican nominee and maybe who would win depending on who those presumptive nominees are?

[00:18:34]>> The field is likely smaller on the Republican side as of right now. I think that could change if the midterms don't go well. Um if if the end of the Trump presidency is, you know, moving down a hill as opposed to up a mountain, um then I think it's hard for JD to make the case that he is the air apparent. Um and that even if Trump endorsed him, I don't know what weight that would carry um comparatively. Um so a lot of what happens on the Republican side is going to be driven by the the outcomes and perceptions of the the final years of the second Trump term. Um, the Democratic side is just going to be a complete wideopen free-for-all. Um, that in in which I hope they they have the contest of who can run the furthest to the left and make us wonderful video clips like wanting to fund gender transition for prisoners using taxpayer dollars. That was a great clip we got use. and she said that because she was running to the left in the in her presidential primary in uh whenever in 2024. And so, you know, there's um I think we're too far out to know who the leaders are in those, but it's it's easy to see that you're going to have dozens run on the Democratic side and probably currently half a dozen or less on the Republican side, but that could change depending on what happens um in in these final years. But we're also a year away from all this happening. So you're going to start to see people on the Democratic side likely announce right after the midterms. The Republican side, I would bet that we don't see as much movement until maybe this time next year in in April of 2027. Um if things are going well, it'll stay that way. If things are not going well, then you're going to probably see a lot of people jumping in on our side of the aisle uh a year from now.

[00:20:29]>> Yeah. Part of my concern is I kind of think of this election in a similar way as 2016, but in the inverse for the parties. I'm worried in a way that the Democrat side will look as open as the Republican side did. And then there's this going to be this person out of nowhere who's going to come through and, you know, that nobody expected and pick up the nominee and or the nomination and become president. It's true. I I feel like it could be that side. It could be that they all run to the left. And of course it's not going to go over well with the American people. But if >> so one thing to think of on the the Democratic nomination side is that the fascinatingly the party of democracy has a very undemocratic way of selecting their nominees. They make the voters think that their votes count at the state level in their primaries. But they have something called superdelegates and they have a very large number of superdelegates that are essentially party bosses whose vote counts as much as hundreds of thousands of voters in uh Florida voting in the Democratic primary. So we do not have that system on our side on the Republican side. Um we have a true election primary election where the person with the the most votes out of the states wins. um and you get the most electors and and the Democrats pretend they have that, but then they can override it with the the superdelegates. So, I think it's less likely that you get this out of the blue person that kind of bucks the Democratic system because they're not going to allow that happen through their superdelegates. It's how we ended up with Joe Biden is they didn't like how the election how the the nomination process was going and you know they weakened burning this guy and magically got him the votes that he needed to to win the nomination.

[00:22:16]>> One of the stories that's just not being told by hardly anybody. Maybe from the mainstream media I've seen it a little bit but it's not really being talked about uh in podcast and the new media is what's going on in Virginia right now.

[00:22:27]It's one of the most consequential votes maybe in the last century for their state. It's a huge deal and a lot of people don't know a lot about it, but I know you do. So, tell me and my audience a little bit about it and how the polling is looking for it.

[00:22:41]>> Yeah, so I am a Virginia voter and I voted on the final day of early voting um before heading out on a on a business trip. Uh and the lines were long. I also live in the People's Republic of Arlington, which is not a great representation of uh the state as a whole. Um, but you know, 10 years ago, maybe, it could be less. I I don't remember the exact timeline, the voters of Virginia by a 41point margin voted for a nonpartisan redistricting commission, which fascinatingly produced probably one of the most close to nonpartisan maps that I've seen out of any state that has a a nonpartisan >> um redistricting commission. Usually that just means left-wing professors get stuck in and we call it nonpartisan, but nobody on there is nonpartisan. They're all left leftists.

[00:23:31]>> Um like California had so they've put it on the ballot. The Democrats when they took over the governorship um this last fall and they already had the legislature. uh they pushed through a referendum that is today uh April 21st uh whereby voters would uh create fair maps which means 10 to1 Democrat to Republican um in a state that Donald Trump only lost by a few points. Um so I don't know where the fairness is in that outside of the fact that they're gerrymandering is a threat to democracy if you're a Democrat until it's to your benefit to Jerry Mander and then it's not a threat to democracy. Um and and so the polling has been showing a couple points ahead for yes, which would redistrict to that 10 Democrats, one Republican map. Um you know, if I if I were going on Koshi, I would probably take that bet. Um the only thing that changes that is a massive election day turnout, which Virginia just in the last because there's elections literally every year in Virginia, their legislature is up in every odd year. And so you vote in the midterms and then next year's the legislature, next year's the president, next year's the governor in the legislature. That's just Virginia is always voting. Um and and there hasn't been a whole lot of massive election day turnout that would benefit the conservative side of this, which is vote no. Um, so I'm not saying it's out of the realm of possibility that uh the no vote wins the current maps done by the nonpartisan commission stay, but but it is it's Virginia and and Northern Virginia is just a bastion of of progressivism. Um, and they got a lot of population comparatively. Uh, so, you know, 60% chance that yes wins and 40% chance that that no wins, but it all hinges on, you know, does rural Virginia show up um today or or not, or is it just not enough to cross the line?

[00:25:31]One of the things that we brought up earlier was the war in Iran. Uh, I think it's going to have massive implications for the midterms. How do Americans, because we get so much conflicting data on this, and I'm really trying to nail down what it is. So tell me my audience uh what are the actual feelings of the American people toward war in general and then specifically the war in Iran?

[00:25:51]>> Well, it depends on what type of voter we're talking about here. So overall among midterm voters, we had um back in March when it started uh that it was essentially tied support and opposition.

[00:26:06]Um that has degraded a little bit.

[00:26:08]opposition now leads by a few points in in public opinion of midterm voters, but it's not drastic. Um, and I think we have it like 46% um support still uh for for the war. And it's fascinating. This is the reason I I'm actually here doing focus groups for a client tonight. Um, and I love doing focus groups because you get into some of the nuance of it's not just as simple as I support or I oppose. Um, I was with a bunch of swing uh female voters in a swing congressional district a couple weeks ago doing focus groups and I expected them to be all against it. The most Trumpy person in the group was like, I didn't sign up for wars.

[00:26:48]But Iran has also been threatening our country and our troops for almost 50 years and they can't get a nuclear weapon because they would actually use it. So if I asked her a poll question, do you support or oppose the war? She probably would have selected the oppose.

[00:27:03]But then there's the nuance of why she doesn't necessarily support it, but she's not as opposed to it as just like hard opposition. Um, and then you have the partisan aspect where uh, you know, Democrats are just against it because Trump is doing it. Um, I I think the hardest part in all of this is that when you look at the coalitions, and I wrote about this in my book, America's Emotional Divide, where I use the 24 presidential election is like a case study to why emotions actually drive everything and voting behavior, not logic. Um, and when you look at the coalitions that elected Donald Trump, you know, the difference between who he lost in 20 and who he was able to win 24, it's younger voters. It's a lot of younger males. Uh, and then specifically non-white males that historically had just not voted. Um, and if they did, they were more likely to vote for a Democrat. Like that's the cohort that I think this turns off the most because they signed up for a guy to blow up the system, not to blow up other countries.

[00:28:04]Um, and they kind of see this as a uh like a broken promise. You know, you kept saying no more wars and now we stole a president out of the country.

[00:28:16]Not a bad thing. it's going to transform Venezuela, but now we may get stuck in this war in the Middle East, our third war in this region of the world in the last two decades. And so I think that is that's the biggest risk. Um because when I was doing an analysis looking at our exit poll in 24 to our most recent national survey and like 100% of the vote shift away from Republicans has come from people under the age of 55. Um and and so that is the group that I see as most at risk for this war. or if it continues um if if we have to put boots on the ground to to finish the mission.

[00:28:51]But then but then there's the nuance of it where there's a lot of people who feel that way and they're also like well if we're going to go do it we better finish the job. Let's not come out of this thing and uh like halfass this effort.

[00:29:07]>> Yeah. Yeah. I think that is the sentiment that I've been getting from a lot of my audience. Obviously, I'm a younger guy, so I kind of fit what you're talking about. And uh I I think it's interesting how when you get to those nuances, you can really understand that some of the polls that we've been given from especially the main large pollsters are are just oversimplified.

[00:29:29]One of the things that I've been looking at right now is I saw a report today, I think it was that Republican packs have over $500 million more than Democrat packs right now. Is that number accurate from what you're seeing? And how is that going to affect the midterms as well as 2028?

[00:29:44]>> Yeah, I think it's probably bigger and it's going to grow. Um, that is one thing Donald Trump is really good at is raising money. Um, and so Republicans used to be the party of the higher educated, higher income. You know, we were called when I started doing this years ago, we were called the country club Republicans, the silk stocking Republicans. like that's the Republican party I started in. Um, and now we're more the party of the working class. Um, I I think that's a good transition to be made as opposed to being the party of the coastal elites, which is now more the Democratic party.

[00:30:21]>> The challenge there is that the Republican base just intentionally avoids politics, intentionally avoids the news. They're living their lives.

[00:30:29]They're taking their kids to little league. They're going to church on Sundays. like they're they're not like weird people like me constantly consuming the news and paying attention to to all the things that are happening around the world. Um and and people like that just require a lot more effort to get to. Um I was with one of our clients, an incumbent governor running for reelection um last week and when I profiled what the survey data was showing of who we've got to reach and turn out, I showed the next slide was their media consumption diet. like how often are they paying attention to the news? Where are they consuming this information? And I was like, it it's not an exaggeration that it it's probably going to take 10 times the amount of touches to reach this person because they're not going to see seven of them, which means we're banking on three making it through and doing the job to get them to show up and and vote for my client for reelection. Um and and so we need that some we need that delta because our voters that need turned out are not watching the NBC nightly news.

[00:31:34]They're not watching the local CBS affiliate 5:00 news or 10:00 news. Um and so all this broadcast money, broadcast television money that used to be super effective at us winning elections, like you got to check the box. You got to do it because you can't let the Democrats just own that that one channel. But like their voters are more likely to be watching the news on broadcast than our voters are. And so we have to spend on multiple channels way more touches than than average. So that to me is like table stakes necessary to have that delta of spending because the the voters that were Democrats 20 years ago, the Democrat party had unions and unions would go put boots on the ground and get these people to turn out knock and drag operations. the the unions are still with the Democrats and so we have to rely on paid spending on the Republican side now to get those lower propensity lower information like and I don't mean low information in a negative way like they're doing it on purpose less educated they're just maybe smarter than us by paying less attention >> I completely agree one one thing that was fascinating to me about signal and I want to get this name right I was reading about the emotive analysis that you guys do I was wondering if you could talk to that different approach that you do there and how that uh has impact on the polling results you get.

[00:32:55]>> Yeah. The the older I get, the more I realize that um you've got to understand what makes humans tick and then meet them where they are and and speak in a way to where they're willing to listen to your message. It doesn't matter if you say exactly the right words, if you said them in the wrong way or the wrong tone, then the message is either not received or does the actual opposite effect of your intention. And for those of you who are married, you know exactly what I'm talking about. Um I'm, you know, be married 18 years this fall and I've made plenty of those mistakes as a husband. Uh but that's a human relationship and too often we try to quantify and turn voters into a spreadsheet when when they're more a music sheet. Um and and in order to sing their song, you got to figure out where they are emotionally. Um, and so a voter who is angry about the way everything's headed, um, is a totally different conversation than somebody who is anxious about where things are headed and what's going on. And and you got to be able to to ascertain what is their current emotional state in general. What are those primary emotions that they're feeling? Um, like Trump voters might be feeling incredibly confident and trusting and joyful. And so that's a different conversation than somebody who voted for Trump in 24 that is now uh you know maybe affect where they're just you know they feel neutral about it. So we built a tool that uses open-ended responses either from focus groups or from asking an open-ended question on a survey where we can go in and look at what are the emotional drivers of why somebody said that. So we built a a tool. It was an AI machine learning tool before like AI was the big buzzword where we could load all this in and we worked with neural linguists and and and political psychologists to say okay when somebody says these words in this combination like what scientifically is the emotion that they're feeling that made them say that word and if you changed one word out what what emotion would that be? So it matches all those things up and then gives us an understanding of the emotional state of in general of those of that voter down to the individual level, but also how are they feeling about the president?

[00:35:13]How are they feeling about Republicans?

[00:35:15]How are they feel you know corporate clients hire us to do this to figure out, you know, how are they feeling about health care? um as an example and and it's taking that it doesn't negate any of the quantitative things that polling provides but it adds all the color and the nuance to how we say the message. So, it's not going to emotional analytics is not going to change what you say, but it's definitely going to change how you say it because we have so many things coming at us through social media, through advertisements, through uh you know, driving down the road, just the billboards in general. Like, you're just consumed with things coming at you.

[00:35:54]And so, you have to be able to go to a voter and say something and at the very instant they hear it, they go, "Oh, this is for me. this person feels like I do.

[00:36:05]They understand somebody like me. You know, they're speaking my language and then they'll hear the message that can be delivered. And that's what emotional analytics does.

[00:36:13]>> Brett Buchanan, thanks so much for joining the show. Really enjoyed this conversation. Where can people find you and even, you know, ask you for your services if they want to use you?

[00:36:22]>> Best is on our website, cygn.al.

[00:36:25]Uh you can find us at signal on X and and other social platforms. And and then my book is America's Emotional Divide which is on bunch of different formats on Amazon.