Is The Iran Ceasefire Already Failing? | Faye D'Souza

Añadido: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]Okay, we're back to talking about Donald Trump. Now, for weeks, we have been told that a deal is close, that negotiations are progressing, that the ceasefire is holding. But the news we've been writing over the last 24 hours paints a completely different picture. America has been striking Iran. Iran has now retaliated. The whole world is waiting in the balance because we are all running out of fuel and of patience quite honestly. And we are asking, is this a war that's actually going to continue? And what does it mean for the rest of the world? Because this is not just a story about oil or about nuclear weapons. It's also about America now attempting to redraw the balance of the Middle East through the Abraham Accords.

[00:00:40]Today, we're going to break down all of the things that have happened in the last week or so and what that means for you and me and whether this war actually continues. And of course, our finally conclusion of whether or not Donald Trump has bitten off more than he can chew and how he's planning to digest the mess that he has started and made. Okay, before we move forward, a couple of reminders. Like this uh video and share it if you find it useful. Subscribe to our channel so you'll find out every time we put up a fresh video. And if you're so inclined, sign up for our membership. Our members get two things as of now. A daily news bulletin uh that gives you the news in the calmst way possible, fact checked, curated 10 minutes, everything you need to know about the world. And secondly, once a month we'll put out an editorial accountability live where we will answer any question that you have about how we have tracked the news, covered the news, written the news or not written the news. Okay. So these are specials for our members. Let's take a look at what has happened now as far as US and Iran is concerned. There are four major things that have happened. One, the US military has carried out strikes in Iran targeting the military site of Badra Ababas, the strategic port city.

[00:01:50]remember on the day of Eid. In response, Iran said it's targeted the US air base without providing which location it has targeted. Kuwait, which hosts a USA base, has said its air defenses are intercepting hostile missile drone threats. Did not specify where those threats are coming from. Renewed hostilities uh threatened this ceasefire that we've seen between the two countries. This is the second time in three days that the United States had targeted uh Iran saying that strikes are conducted in self-defense and the self-defense is very important. I'll come back to it. The site that has been struck um apparently according to the US's central command or Sentcom was about to launch a fifth drone after it had already launched four drones and Iranian media reported that explosions were heard in the east of the city.

[00:02:38]Satcom described its actions again measured purely defensive intended to maintain a ceasefire and of course Iran has condemned these strikes as a grave violation of the ceasefire and said that it will not leave any act of hostility unanswered. So that was the one major thing that has happened. The second thing that's happened, Trump has threatened to blow up Oman which is a longtime ally of the United States. Now uh this is what happened. Trump on Wednesday was uh speaking to the press and he said and I quote, "Oman must behave or they will be blown up." During a cabinet meeting at the White House, he told reporters, "No, the strait is going to be open to everybody. It's international waters and Oman will behave just like everybody else or we'll have to blow them up. We will have to blow them up there." They understand that, so they'll be fine. Now, the White House did not immediately respond when asked if Trump had misspoken or if it was if he intended to refer to Oman and he was actually referring to Iran and he got the two mixed up. Uh the US State Department later posted this clip with a transcribe without any sort of clarification. So, I mean, it's kind of sad also that we've reached a point where a country of the kind of power that the United States exercises has a head of state that's making statements like this where the press has to constantly ask if he really meant what he said. Was it a slip of a tongue or did he actually switch get confused about the names of the countries? That was that was the second thing that happened. The third thing that happened is Trump asserting again on Wednesday that Iran is negotiating on fumes and insisting that the November midterms that are coming up won't make him rush into any deal. And let me tell you what is going on. The president is looking for a settlement that will open the straight of Congos obviously because that's what the world wants but also give him a credible argument as to what he's achieved with this war because right now it's not looking easy or good.

[00:04:36]Iran's nuclear capability need he needs to be able to prove that the capability has been diminished in some way in order to prove a victory or that the winding down of the conflict um has been done because they've achieved something not just because he's under pressure from Republicans. So the criticism that he's received from his own supporters domestically is that Iran's hardline leaders will emerge from this conflict emboldened because they'll survive it.

[00:05:05]Or the other criticism that he's received is that they're going to go into the midterm elections right now where uh they may lose control of Congress and Republicans worry that the rising cost of fuel prices are actually, you know, basically darkening the mood across America. People are not going to like it. So what has Trump said here? He said they are not going to outweight me, you know, will outweight uh the midterms. I don't care about the midterms. So that's the third important development. Trump claiming that he doesn't care about the midterms. So the idea that he's under pressure, he's rejecting at this point. The fourth big thing that has happened is called the Abraham Accords. Now let me tell you this popped up again and uh on Monday he called apparently on Muslim majority countries in West Asia to establish normalized relationships with Israel in the context of developing this peace agreement with Iran on his social media post which is how he communicates with the world. Trump listed the countries whose leaders he had spoken to about efforts to end the war with uh Iran. Now let me take you on a side quest as to what the Abraham Accords are if you don't already know. Abraham Accords are a set of agreements that were brokered by Trump back in 2020. Now these accords marked a massive shift in the relationship between Israel and the Arab countries that surround the region.

[00:06:26]US actually negotiated uh these deals.

[00:06:30]Four countries began diplomatic efforts to formalize ties with Israel. So up till then there were very few Arab countries that had any relationship or diplomatic relationship with Israel. uh between August and December 2020, the countries that signed were the UAE, Bahin, Morocco, and Sudan. Um and now effectively the Abraham Accords have come back into the conversation because Trump is trying to push more countries to sign those. Now the the name Abraham Accords was essentially meant to call on the shared roots of the Abrahamic religions. So the name was not picked by accident. Remember Jud Judaism, Christianity and Islam all consider Abraham as the uh the sort of key figure, spiritual grandfather of all three religions. It's Ibraim in uh in Islam, but it's, you know, it's the same figure. So, it was meant to sort of call on that coexistence and remind all of the people involved that they come from the same sort of source. uh the symbolism sort of took center stage but the US acted act acted as a broker and as a guaranter for all of those agreements and the countries that were involved the UAE you'll remember it was not just about diplomatic relationships it was economic it was military there were political advantages to working openly with Israel and the country that sat in the middle of this conversation uh that was isolated by it was Iran now here's the thing many Gulf countries chose to work closer with Israel because they viewed Iran as a growing regional threat. Here's why. Iran has nuclear ambition. It has military influence. It has supported armed groups across the region. Uh and that has sort of created shared anxieties in Israel and several other Arab countries. So effectively the enemy of my enemy is my friend. And that is how a lot of these Arab countries decided to go on with the Abrahamic Accords. Now u what has changed after those uh signatures in 2020? Direct flights between Israel and the Gulf countries, trade has increased, technology partnerships, security cooperation, tourism has exploded.

[00:08:37]Apparently, Israeli tourists travel openly in Dubai and other Gulf countries. Business agreements worth billions of dollars. And they effectively ended decades of unofficial silence between Israel and these Arab countries. for Trump it became a huge political win for him uh because he effectively changed how Middle Eastern diplomacy had worked up till then. So the idea was don't wait for a resolution between Israel and Palestine and that situation actually normalize relationships with Israel right now to bring in cooperation. So there was obviously uh supporters who said that this brought stability and economic opportunity to the region and there were critics who said that this sidelines Palestine entirely and does not in any way uh you know support the human rights of the people of Palestine. Now since then obviously the absolute devastation and what can only be described as genocide has taken place in Gaza to now the Abrahamic Accords have come back into the news. Now what effectively Donald Trump is doing is expanding these accords aggressively across the Middle East. He has called on many Muslim majority countries to also sign.

[00:09:47]Countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey. He's called them this week and asked them to sign as well. The vision is this that several countries uh remain uncomfortable effectively with recognizing Israel because the war in Gaza has made things look worse. There's no credible pathway towards statethood for Palestinians. Pakistan, for example, has said that it is rejecting the idea publicly that it does not want to sign the accord. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly said that it wants meaningful progress for Palestinian rights before it signs anything. And despite all of that, um the region remains divided, but a lot of supporters see these accords as a possible breakthrough. So this is where it is. So what Trump is also doing at the same time while there is an attempt to negotiate a deal with Iran is that he is trying to push more Arab countries to normalize their relationship with Israel so he can claim a victory in that region as well. So basically he say that I sort of redrew the Middle East and how the Middle East functions. Then there's the final angle of the nuclear deal. Now this is where we started from. This is Trump's reason for doing the war to begin with. According to a report by Axios, uh the agreement between US and Iran was close to signing in involved a 60-day ceasefire. That was one the fact that Iran would freely be able to say sell oil and that it would completely curb its nuclear program. Now Trump had asked initially for all of Iran's enriched uranium to be transferred to the United States to be destroyed. He has since then softened his deal and he has basically said that he is okay if that uranium is transferred to the international atomic uh energy agency for them to destroy at an acceptable location. So he's stepping down or softening his tide over there. But despite these four five things that has happened the thing that we find most consu concerning disconcerting is that Trump has constantly changed his statements and his views. They've kept us guessing this entire time as to what is happening with this deal. Initially remember his team was meant to fly to Pakistan and then he said the team is not going to fly to Pakistan. Then they said that whatever deal has happened we can do it over the phone and then they said they're very close to a deal.

[00:12:04]They're very close to a deal and now these two countries are shooting at each other again. So in the meantime while all of this plays out between three countries which is effectively Iran, America and Israel, the whole world is hanging in the balance. Oil is well above a $100 a barrel.

[00:12:23]Big oil companies uh Saudi Aramco, Exxon Mobile, the biggest beneficiaries of this bonanza are obviously making hay when the sunshines because the price of oil is through the roof. Um and oil and gas supplies will take months to return to normal after this even after this conflict ends. Uh and in the meantime, companies will make, hold your breath, $234 billion by the end of the year if oil prices continue at $100 a barrel. uh analysis uses data from leading intelligence providers and they have basically said that what is happening right now and I'm going to say this slowly what is happening right now um is that the poorest of the world around the globe are suffering because of the increased price of fuel everywhere including our own country are going to rise through the roof and the rich are going to make blind money hand over fist.

[00:13:28]Dozens of countries um are also going to cut taxes in order to help their citizens including Australia, South Africa, Italy, Brazil, Zambia, which means less money for public services.

[00:13:39]When you cut taxes, your obviously government government revenues come down and you have less money to actually look after people. Effectively, the bottom line is this. The longer this conflict continues between these three countries, the poorest of the world will starve more and more. The richest of the world will make more and more money. I mean even in India, consider who profits in the energy sector. The richest of our country profit in the energy sector and who suffers the poorest. So what's happening in the US right now is that there is a conflict of messaging from the white house. remember when they started and it was all about this would be swift, this would be decisive, this would be targeted, the Iran's military nuclear infrastructure would be degraded, they will be uh I mean Donald Trump used very interesting words back then that the American strength would force Theran onto the table and down to their knees and they would destroy everything. They will destroy all the bridges. They'll be on their knees in a couple of days. All of those deadlines shifted from days to weeks to months to open-ended negotiations to ceasefires that are unstable. And now the language has changed from inside the White House.

[00:14:46]Now we're hearing things like measured response, uh defensive action, protecting navigation, maintaining deterrence, exercising restraint. So this is no longer the language of a regime uh of regime change or full scale escalation. This is a language of containment. There is a change in how America is dealing with this. Uh but if we put all of the language aside and ask ourselves who holds the cards at this point, which of the two countries uh effectively between America and Iran, which of the two countries has the cards in this negotiation? Well, the United States, as we know, is overwhelmingly military superior, militarily superior, navy, and otherwise it has the ability to shut everything down in uh the Middle East overnight. But what Iran has is stamina. America doesn't have stamina.

[00:15:34]Even though Trump might regularly say that he doesn't care about the midterms, his Republican party does. All of the people who support him do. Even though Trump regularly says that, you know, oil prices will manage in the US. The people of the US do not like it. He will need congressional support if he drags this out any further. So, he doesn't have the political stamina to continue this war.

[00:15:56]Whereas Iran does. Iran knows that it only has to survive long enough to make the escalation politically expensive for the US. And this has been Iran's strategy for decades apparently. Absorb the pressure, endure the sanctions, avoid a total collapse and just survive to fight another day. So Iran has of course not gotten away scotfree.

[00:16:16]Remember its economy is damaged. Its military infrastructure has taken its its oil exports are very vulnerable at this point. Regional influence has been challenged. You see uh China is also you know in that very volatile conversation that US had with China when Trump visited they did talk about how they want this to end and they want this to end quickly. Fundamentally, what Trump is trying to do is add leverage with the Abraham Accord so that he can claim a victory saying that we changed how the Middle East functions or we changed the nuclear capacity of Iran because he needs to walk away from this with some sort of victory in hand in order to show his domestic audience that he did something and he had some plan in place. But for the time being, it does seem like unless someone hands them a victory of some sort, they're not going to reach a conclusion here. And for as long as these two countries continue their standoff, the rest of the world is hanging in the balance. Leave me a comment in the comment section if you believe that Donald Trump walked into this without the adequate information that he needed or he's just at this point not entirely clear about what he's doing. Is he really confusing Iran and Oman? Was that a slip of tongue? I really want to.