US military support for Israel in doubt | DW News

Added: 2026-05-17

[00:00:00]Why would America's key ally in the Middle East say thanks, but no thanks, to billions of dollars in military aid?

[00:00:07]Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is proposing weaning Israel's military off US tax dollars. That despite years of insecurity and conflict in the Middle East. So, what's driving this shift? And can Israel really stand on its own?

[00:00:20]Those are the questions we'll explore with Bradley Bowman. He's senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He joins us now from Washington D.C. So, thanks for being with us, Bradley.

[00:00:34]Thank you very much. Appreciate the opportunity.

[00:00:37]All right, before we get into it, let's take a look at what Netanyahu said on US television news program 60 Minutes. He was asked if Israel would possibly reset its financial relationship to the United States. This was his answer.

[00:00:51]He said, "I want to draw down to zero the American financial component of the military cooperation that we have, because we receive $3.8 billion a year, and I think that it's time that we weaned ourselves from the remaining military support."

[00:01:06]Netanyahu also provided a timetable. He said, "Let's start now and do it over the next decade, over the next 10 years, but I want to start now. I don't want to wait for the next Congress. I want to start now."

[00:01:20]So, Bradley, this is not the first time Netanyahu has said he wants Israel to end its dependence on US military aid.

[00:01:27]So, is this a genuine strategic shift?

[00:01:31]You know, I think this is a significant strategic moment in the bilateral relationship between the United States and Israel. You know, I worked these issues as a senior staff in the Senate for many years, and it's been a focus in my at the current research institute where I work. And I think when you look at this, it's important to make sure that viewers have a common vocabulary.

[00:01:50]Uh he's talk- what he's talking about there is foreign military financing, or as we say in the United States, FMF, foreign military financing. And we're currently under a memorandum of understanding that was signed in September 2016 that covers fiscal years 2019 to 2028.

[00:02:06]So, we're approaching the end of that 10-year window, and as he said, the United States has provided Israel $3.8 billion per year divided between $3.3 billion in foreign military financing, FMF, and $500 million for air cooperative air missile defense programs. And so, as we've approached the end of that window, there's been questions about what comes next and what should come next. And all of these discussions are happening within the context of evolving political conditions, particularly here in the United States, but also in Israel. And let's remember that Prime Minister Netanyahu is in the midst of a re-election campaign. And so, saying things like that, like he said there, plays well with certain elements of his political base.

[00:02:52]But when you actually look at some of the numbers, uh you see a different story. So, symbolic uh statement by the Prime Minister up for re-election, absolutely.

[00:03:02]Significant strategic consequences, potentially, absolutely.

[00:03:08]So, question, how exactly dependent is Israel on this foreign military funding, on this FMF funding, as you were calling it?

[00:03:16]Yeah, so uh again, it's important for folks to now that we have kind of some basic vocabulary in the FMF to understand the difference between that and the ability of Israel to buy American weapons. But let's start with the FMF. So, when you look at um foreign military financing from the United States for Israel over time, and this data is according to Jane's as well as the Congressional Research Service, uh FMS as a percentage of Israel's independent defense budget reached as high as around 30%, 30%, a third of their independent defense budget in 2006, and then dropped and kind of hovered around the 20% range from about 2010 to about 2019, and then we saw a drop below 15% around 2023 and then spiked after October 7th when we saw the supplemental additional supplemental funding provided by the United States. And now it's dropped again below around 10%. So, what's explaining that? What's explaining that is the growing Israeli economy. I mean, that's great for Israelis, that's great for the United States. You know, the more that they can pay for their own defense, that's great.

[00:04:23]But, when you when you zoom out a little bit more and you look at percentage of GDP spent on defense, you start to get a picture a more nuanced picture than a lot of people appreciate. And let me just give you a few more numbers. So, the United States spends about 3% of its GDP on defense, its gross domestic product. Most of your of our European allies are barely, you know, they they struggle to meet the 2% and very few are higher than that. So, Israel is actually kind of a model ally.

[00:04:54]The Trump administration called them that in their national defense strategy twice in terms of percentage of GDP on defense.

[00:05:01]In they spent about 4% of GDP in 2022, 5% in 2023. In 2024, after the October 7th terror attack, Israel spent roughly 8% of GDP. That's a crazy high number. I mean, that's more than double what the United States spends and far more than any European country spends. And they're come down in 2025 and then 2026 to about 7%. So, why does all that matter? Well, that number tells you a little bit about what they can afford. And then when you add to that the wars that we saw with the between Iran and Israel in April and October of 2024 and then the 12-day war in June of 2025, and then what we've called the 40-day war more recently, Israel, like the United States, has expended an enormous quantity of munitions and both in in Lebanon as well against others and so they've incurred a huge bill, a growing bill that they're going to have to pay for and yet they're already spending an extraordinary amount of their GDP on defense. And so if you begin to phase out American foreign military financing, even though it's about 7 to 10% of their budget and and you consider the fact that a large portion of that future foreign military financing for a future 10-year period, potentially more than 20 billion of it is already spoken for, then you start to see that if you phase out American foreign military financing at time when the Israeli defense needs are growing to replenish, modernize and expand, then you then you start to have a problem if you're someone who believes that Israel should exist and should be able to defend itself and afford to do so.

[00:06:36]So looking forward, is this type of spending from Israel on its military sustainable? I mean, will its GDP actually allow them to continue this high level of spending? I mean, their needs aren't going to decrease in the short term.

[00:06:49]No, their needs are increasing significantly and if you you complicate that with a phasing out of US foreign military financing, then the gap between the budget that Israel needs and they have will grow and that will be translated in reduced security for Israel and reduced ability to fight common adversaries and defend common interests with the United States. And as the United States is looking is confronting an axis of aggressors where we have China, Russia, Iran and North Korea cooperating in what our chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in unprecedented ways, we need and want capable partners who can help carry the burden in their respective regions. And so from a selfish American perspective, we want Israel to be militarily capable.

[00:07:30]And so I I I am quite concerned about this and you know, to expect a democracy, let's remember Israel is a democracy, to sustain 7 to 8% of gross domestic percent of GDP on defense for 10 plus years. You know, you talk about the guns and butter domestic debate and if the the government that replaces Netanyahu is a is a center or center-left government, are they going to be able to maintain that? I'd be surprised and that will will mean a reduced margin of safety for Israelis and a partner uh in the Middle East for the United States and our European allies that is not as capable as we want them to be, I fear. Yeah, it does seem that we're seeing kind of a phase change both in the US and in Israel as well.

[00:08:12]And I want to take a look at what seems to be a uh a factor driving this change from Netanyahu. Yeah, you mentioned the election due this year in Israel, but Netanyahu also cited shifting political attitudes in the United States. Uh in a survey carried out by the Pew Research Center in March this year, 60% of US adults said that they have an unfavorable view of Israel. Opinions of Israel are also becoming more negative, especially among younger Americans. A majority of Democrats and Republicans under the age of 50 now have a negative view of Israel.

[00:08:44]So, with those numbers in mind, do you think that Netanyahu's statements are a recognition of a long-term shift in US support for Israel?

[00:08:53]We have seen uh changes in public opinion in the United States regarding Israel. Uh and you can you some of this uh goes back years and some of this is a function of after October 7th uh Israel perceptions, particularly on the left in this country regarding Israeli military operations in Gaza and also uh the way that the current war against Iran was conducted has uh created additional anger among some Democrats. And uh in addition to that poll you cited, we see some of the similar reflections in a Reagan Institute uh poll that they conduct once or twice a year. And there's definitely a distinction between Republicans and Democrats, and there's definitely a distinction by age. And the more Democrat you are, the more negative the perception tends to be. Uh and the younger you are, the more the negative the perception tends to be. And so, if you're an Israeli looking at this, you say there's a couple of views you can take. One view is, "Hey, we Israel need this foreign military financing because our defense needs are growing, and this is really not a time to take a 7 to 10% decrease in our defense budget when we're already at about 6 to 7% of GDP on defense. So, let's let's work with America and keep this foreign military financing going as long as we can because we need it." Or you could look at it the the politics in the United States and say, "Hey, this money is going to get cut off sooner or later.

[00:10:11]So, let's rip the band-aid off and do it now and force the changes in Israel domestically that need to be made." And so, that's essentially the debate. And so, there are politics that Netanyahu's playing with, you know, he's trying to curry favor with some elements of the far right that views American foreign military financing as like handcuffs, that that money somehow gives the United States the ability to tell Israel what it can and can't do. And that if you get rid of that foreign military financing, then suddenly they'll have liberty or freedom they don't have. But that view to me doesn't stand up to scrutiny because Israel's still going to be flying American F-15s, F-35s, F-16s, relying on American munitions for decades to come.

[00:10:52]And they're going to still need parts for those systems. So, Israel's not going to be building its own F-35s anytime soon, and they're going to need parts for those aircraft. So, if they're really worried about politics in the United States going south that fast, that quickly, that badly, then I worry those who are calling for an FMF phase-out are simply jumping on a Bronco that they're not going to control, that's going to end up in a barn they don't like.

[00:11:13]That's a really interesting point, and I want to circle back to that in just a second. But if we're staying on the political side in the United States, now foreign aid is an unpopular subject for many in Trump's base, and an increasing number of Republicans also hold a negative view towards Israel. So, do you think Netanyahu's statements are an attempt to help Trump ahead of the midterm elections this November in the US?

[00:11:34]You know, I don't know. I don't frankly like it when any foreign national tries to impact American politics. I don't think we should do that to other countries, including Germany. I don't think other countries should do it to us. If those are his motives, I don't like it. Um you know, I'd say let Americans choose who lead and let Israelis choose who they want to lead. That's the That's the way it should work in a democracy, right? But undoubtedly, there's maybe some shenanigans at play here.

[00:11:56]But the bottom line is, you know, I really you know, I worked for three Republican senators, but I'm at a non-partisan think tank now and I try to call balls and strikes regardless who's pitching. And here's where I come down.

[00:12:07]You know, the United States is confronting this axis of aggressors that is a real thing. They're cooperating across all domains of power, presenting dilemmas for us. We are America's powerful. We're the most powerful military in the world, but we need help.

[00:12:19]You know, the bullies are coming around the corner in the playground and it's good to have friends who know how to throw punches. And Israelis have demonstrated they know how to throw punches.

[00:12:26]But you know, when we make Israel powerful, as I said, they can help carry the burden. And there's a little anecdote I'd like to tell. There's a There's a terrorist named Fuad Shuker who was involved in the the killing of over 240 Marines in Lebanon in 1983. The US put out a Rewards for Justice program for him calling for five million saying there'd be five million dollars for anything that led to his his you know, being brought into custody.

[00:12:53]Well, that just sat there for years and years and years. And then one day, Israelis flying in American-made jet, probably an F-15, firing an American-made munition, brought justice to Fuad Shuker, this man responsible for killing over 241 Marines in Lebanon in 1983. He's never going to going to kill US service members and that's because of the Israelis flying American jets and American weapons. And I could give you about three more hours of examples of how we benefit from this cooperation. So those who would suggest that this is just a Christmas gift or a holiday gift for Israel and it's pure charity really have not spent the time to understand how we Americans selfishly benefit from this cooperation with Israel. And so, I hope that folks put the politics aside, um, but you know, with the Prime Minister of Israel saying, "We don't need this."

[00:13:41]He's obviously undercut, arguments of those of us in the United States who say that it is a good thing for us. And it's probably going to result in a phase out happening more abruptly than it would have. And that's going to create more defense budget crises, if you will, for Israel than it would have otherwise.

[00:13:59]And you were you said that, some in Israel viewed this financial aid as a type of handcuffs. How do you think that the broader military relationship between the US and Israel could change if those handcuffs came off?

[00:14:13]Well, you know, so, one, I I I argue that I think that argument is flawed.

[00:14:17]That the United States will have a leverage over Israel whether Israel's receiving foreign military financing or not.

[00:14:25]Any Israel, any Israeli who looks at this relationship objectively understands, you know, this isn't the arrogant American saying this, it's just a geopolitical reality that there's a senior partner and a junior partner here. Yes, Israel is a sovereign autonomous nation and will make its decisions. Um, but those on the far right in Israel think an end to FMF is going to end US leverage over Israel, I think we're going to have a rude awakening. Because Israel's going to remain reliant to some degree on American political debt debt block and economic power. The whole move right now though, among those who are supporting this FMF phase out, which is gaining momentum frankly because of the comments of the Prime Minister and some of the responses that's elicited in Congress, including from people like Senator Lindsey Graham, um, are are trying to shift to more a a strategic partnership. I published in December arguing for FMF, but also arguing for an increase in research and development cooperation. Israel is not in industrial power, but they are a defense technology superpower. Uh and they are quite impressive on AI and biotechnology and air defense. So, there's lots of ways where we can work with them in a win-win sort of way that will benefit Americans. And so, those uh those steps are already uh underway um and should happen regardless of what happens to FMF, and that will be good for the United States and that'll be good for Israel because um it will help American military members be more capable in the first island chain, uh in Eastern Europe, or uh on the Korean Peninsula because in many cases Israelis are at the forefront of military R&D.

[00:16:01]So, I'm I'm a big proponent of increasing that cooperation. Uh of you making the most of things like the US-Israel Operations Technology Working Group. Um and that's definitely where all the focus is in both Israel and the United States in trying to evolve the relationship. All I'm simply trying to do is highlight uh that the arithmetic really doesn't work for the Israeli defense budget in the certainly in the short term and maybe even the medium term if you phase out foreign military financing. And it may catalyze a series of events that those of us who want Israel to exist and be secure and have the means to defend itself may not like uh because there are other ways that a US Congress where you have 40 Democrat senators voting against giving Israel bulldozers and 36 Democ- 36 senators oh some of those were uh were Republican, but 40 senators voting against bulldozers 36 voting against munitions. Um you you can look at that vote two ways.

[00:16:58]You could say uh that's a function of the Iran war, that's a function of what perceptions regarding Gaza. Um and you know, when those things fade into the rearview mirror, those votes will change. You can say that. Or you can say we're in the midst of a generational tectonic shift uh in perceptions of Israel in the United States. Um and things could get much worse. Um I think that's to answer that question, it's more of a psychological, sociological, political science question. And anyone says they know exactly what that's going to look like in 1, 5, 10 years, I don't think I I don't think you should trust that too much. Yeah, none of us have crystal balls. So, that was Bradley Bowman. Exactly, that was Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defending Democracies.

[00:17:39]Thank you very much for your insights.

[00:17:42]Thank you.

[00:17:45]So, what do you think is behind the strategic shift? Leave your comments below. And if you like this video, please hit that like button. And if you haven't already, don't forget to subscribe. I'm Aaron Tilton. Thanks for watching us.