Scott Lucas on War & Politics 24: Ukraine’s strikes deep inside Russia damaging key infrastructure

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]And let's begin our session with um Ukraine's drone strike also as usual because Russia's second largest oil refinery Karishi halted processing uh on Tuesday because uh Ukrainian drone strike damaged three of its four crude distillation units to industry sources told Reuters. Topsy all port has been struck by Ukraine for at least four times in the recent weeks. Meanwhile, this week, Ukrainian cruise missiles FP5 struck Russian military production site more than 1,500 kilometers deep inside Russia in Chaboras. This was a military industrial plant. So, what is your reaction to this another development this week? just several days before Putin's 9th May parade in Moscow.

[00:00:59]>> Well, I I think it's you can add to that list of strikes you're talking about. I think what was a pretty significant symbolic strike which is also that Ukraine was able to strike inside Moscow uh hitting the Mosfilm tower which is about 6 to 7 kilometers from the Kremlin. Uh and I think that was you know a display to the Kremlin leadership just before uh May the 9th in the victory day celebrations. You're not secure here folks. And indeed, as we discussed in in our recent video cast, you know, the fact that those victory day celebrations are not taking not going to have armor, armored personnel, car uh carriers, uh tanks, uh artillery, u in part because it appears that, you know, the leadership is worried about gatherings of that type of military hardwell when Ukraine can strike. But I think if you bring it back to what is the ongoing campaign, not just before May the 9th. I mean, we're this has now been going on for months and will carry on for more months. U you hit those key Russian installations supporting the military uh operation and supporting the economy. Um so again another refinery uh which has hit again hitting the ports and the world terminals. So uh more attempted strikes on morsek for example up on the Baltic Sea and then as you say you hit other uh key plants. So this plant you talk about 1500 km inside Russia that produces components for high precision weapons including missiles. I have to emphasize I don't think we're looking at a campaign that immediately halts the invasion. Uh, I think the Kremlin is still wedded, too wedded to the fact that somehow it can break through and force Ukraine to surrender, but it continues to constrain what they can do um on the front lines and in their own aerial attacks inside Ukraine. Um I Ukraine has moved from resistance to strength that I think has to be emphasized and I think beyond the effects that we have talked about those very practical effects about damaging Russia's military infrastructure, Russia's energy infrastructure, it is also what it shows the rest of the world. It shows the rest of the world that that Ukraine is not simply just this weak uh country that's always at risk of of being defeated. uh that somehow it relies on the kindness of others just to survive. It shows that Ukraine has its own capabilities as we are in the fifth year of this Russian invasion.

[00:03:38]>> Let's cover um ceasefires declarations in Ukraine and Russia. So Russia violated ceasefire regime declared by President Zalinski uh 1,820 times uh as of uh today. President Zilinski said that Ukraine would respond symmetrically. So also as of today, Ukrainian foreign minister Andre Siga reported that Russia violated ceasefire initiative proposed by Ukraine which was set to begin at midnight between May 5 and May 6. Also Ukrainian officials indicated they received no official proposal from Russia regarding a ceasefire from May 9th. As we know, Vladimir Putin uh declared na May 8, May 9 ceasefire uh to ensure his parade would would uh go on smoothly without Ukrainian drones attacking uh military installations in Moscow. What is your assessment of this uh diplomatic move by President Zalinski and uh Putin's reaction and Putin's move uh Putin's ceasefire on May 8, May 9?

[00:04:53]>> Yeah, I mean this is a bit of of political diplomatic theater on both sides. I mean the the broader context for this is of course that the Ukraine Russia US talks are stalled and have been stalled now for months uh because of the US war on Iran. Um while these talks are stalled, you know, you you have Russia that does not really want to go back into the negotiations. They don't really want to discuss a ceasefire. But how do they get away with that line? And one way they get away with the line is by saying, "Oh, you know, look, we we're really the people who who who are the peaceful people here. Look, uh, we would like to have a ceasefire for our victory day celebrations on Friday." And then if Ukraine attacks those celebrations, then the Kremlin go, "Oh, boohoo, boohoo.

[00:05:42]We're the victim here. Look, look, those naughty Ukrainians, how can you support them?" So, what President Zilinski does is say, "Look, okay, I'm going to put the ball back in your court, Vladimir."

[00:05:53]Uh, I'm going to declare the the ceasefire from uh midnight, beginning of Wednesday. Um, because we are the ones who would like a halt to this fighting.

[00:06:04]Uh, we don't want a halt to the fighting, as Alinsky put it, not just for a celebration, in other words, for victory day. We want a lasting ceasefire. Uh, so what are you going to do about it? And the Russians have responded in the run-up to that ceasefire uh yesterday by killing at least 27 civilians, murdering 27 civilians uh injuring I think the latest to hold is well over a hundred uh and continued attack over attack overnight with at least 108 drones and firing three missiles as well. So now the Kremlin cannot pose as oh boohhoo, we're the victim, everyone's just picking on us.

[00:06:41]They continue to be the aggressor. um it doesn't really move the needle that much in terms of the politics because as I said we the talks are stalled but it means that while we have this political stalemate to bring it back to our previous topic Ukraine has this space to carry out the strikes inside Russia uh to continue to degrade Russian capabilities and to show that you know the Russians are not are not necessarily playing from a position of strength right And also um as usual probably uh we are going to cover most recent President Trump statements uh about President Zilinski. Really interesting one. So President Trump says that Ukrainian armed forces are the most powerful in Europe among European NATO allies. Uh, also President Zalinski, President Trump, sorry, says that he likes President Zalinski, quote, I like Zalanski. I have always sort of gotten along with him other than the one moment in the White House. Ukrainians fight and whether equipment is great or less great, they are able to fight, they're better than any of our NATO allies. Uh, why? What? What is the reason of this another U-turn from President Trump?

[00:08:09]>> Oh jeez. I mean I I'm old enough to remember when for you know forget the ambush by JD Vans and Trump last year.

[00:08:15]I'm old enough to remember last year when Donald Trump who supposedly always liked Vladimir Malinski called him a dictator and when he said he only had 4% support amongst Ukrainians. All right.

[00:08:27]And how he would lose if there was an election. Yeah, I'm old enough to remember that. I'm old enough to remember when Donald Trump said that Ukraine uh is not winning and that it was only the fake news media who who uh says that Ukraine's winning because that happened last week. Yeah, exactly. Look, Daniel, we're at the point now and I've said this with relation to other issues uh including the US war in Iran uh which is he just you cannot start with what Donald Trump says now. But Donald Trump is just a bit of this is that he just mentally is not fit. I'll leave that to the side.

[00:09:06]Part of it is simply he just simply speaks off the top of his head and he just rambles with whatever thought bubble he has in here yet. But even as I say, you have to look at, for example, the rest of the Trump administration, for example, the vice president JD Vance, for example, the defense secretary Pete Hexith, Marco Rubio, the secretary of state. I guess if you have to go back to Trump, you have to say, well, wait a minute. What is it he read?

[00:09:32]What is it that was whispered in his ear where all of a sudden he liked Zalinski?

[00:09:37]And I think probably the easiest answer to this is Trump has said in the past, I don't like losers. I don't like losers. He said, I surround myself with losers to make myself look good, but I don't like losers. I like winners. And Zilinski's been looking like a winner in the last few days. Isn't it? Zilinski has been looking like a winner because he's been going to various countries to carry out political negotiations and especially security negotiations in Saudi Arabia again for the second time. We discussed that last week. Uh he has been involved in the European political community this week out in Armenia. Uh I think Trump has seen that he's seen that Zalinsky looks like a world leader who's taken place. But I think also, and this is speculation, Daniel, I'm going to emphasize this.

[00:10:33]Who is the one power with whom Trump is really close that could influence his thought bubble about Zilinski?

[00:10:43]Oh, Saudi Arabia.

[00:10:46]Trump has business, financial ties, deep ties with the Gulf countries, especially the Saudis and the UAE. And I think Zalinsk's visits to Saudi, the UAE, and Qatar have been important in terms of raising Ukraine's profile in terms of being a winner, not a loser, because it has the anti- drone technology. It has the anti- drone uh weapons. It has the anti- drone experts.

[00:11:17]And the Gulf States are recognizing that. And if the Gulf States are recognizing that, they quite likely are mentioning that to Trump. And when Trump is in trouble over his war in Iran, and he is in deep trouble over it, it's better to actually play nice with Zalinski if the Gulf States see Zalinski as a winner, than it is to keep on insulting Zalinski.

[00:11:42]He could still do it next week. He could still flip like he does uh you know within 24 hours, but for the moment I think Zalinsk's role, that public role he's taken, especially in the Gulf, has probably uh turned Trump just a bit into favoring Ukraine instead of insulting it. Hi, I'm Scott Lucas. Thank you so much for watching. If you like what you see, subscribe, spread the word, send ideas.