UK 14 day weather: another big change is on the way!

追加: 2026-05-31

[00:00:02][music] Hi, welcome to the 14-day weather forecast. The reason that I'm filming this on a Friday rather than the usual Tuesday or Wednesday is because I've been on holiday in Scotland. And whilst there, I actually managed to make a few snowballs near the top of Kang Mountain at about 4,000 ft or just a little bit below. Actually, there was still some patches of snow. Now, whilst I was enjoying doing that, much of UK was experiencing a recordbreaking heatwave.

[00:00:38]In fact, the old record set in 1922 and 1944, 32.8° was smashed. 35.1 Celsius was reached in Q Gardens. And quite a nice video here which one of my neighbors kindly sent.

[00:00:54]If you look closely, you can see what appears to be a dust devil forming in Hertfordshire as that heat was building.

[00:01:04]But it does look like a big change in the weather is on the way. So, let's see how things could be developing. Now, here's a picture at 18 GMT on a Friday, the 29th of May. We still got a ridge of high pressure to south, so it's mainly dry and it's warm or very warm. But as I run the sequence, things quickly change.

[00:01:25]Outbreaks of rain push across the north and the west. And then all areas come under the influence of an Atlantic flow.

[00:01:32]Showers or longer spells of rain and stronger winds than we've had for some time and more of a northwesterly tilt developing. So temperatures are going to be dipping quite noticeably or very noticeably. Continuing this through to conclusion, further disturbances move in from the west. The isopars are quite closely packed together at times. So relatively strong winds, low pressure in the ascendancy. So a major change is on the way.

[00:02:04]Here's the upper air temperature sequence using the same computer model run the European UK inside the red circle. This orange shading here is used to indicate very very warm air a loft.

[00:02:17]But as I remember the sequence, we see that's shunted away fairly quickly. The greens return. There's even a little bit of blue there just making its way towards the west of the United Kingdom.

[00:02:30]So, a major change, but let's see the dayto-day details using the UKV charts.

[00:02:38]This is a picture on Saturday the 30th of May. It's still warm or very warm in much of England and Wales. 27, 28, maybe 29 Celsius.

[00:02:48]It's cooler as you head into Northern Ireland and Scotland. And it's wetter, too. Outbreaks of rain pushing in from the Atlantic across Northern and Western areas as we head through the day, but central and eastern England hanging on to the fine weather. But on Sunday, those outbreaks of rain clear eastwards.

[00:03:09]Showers develop in places maybe not too heavy, but there will be quite a few around. Sunny spells as well and a good deal fresher. It's still quite warm at this point, 23 or 24 in central and eastern counties. Cooler as you head northwards and westwards, but we're starting to lose that heat in onto Monday. Showery rain pushes northeastwards and then some longer and heavier outbreaks move across much of England and Wales according to this. So, this unsettled theme or or at least changeable one is be beginning to take hold. Temperatures continuing to fall a little bit, but it's still not too bad.

[00:03:49]21, 22, maybe 23 in central and eastern counties, up to about 15 there in Scotland, a couple of degrees higher in Northern Ireland.

[00:04:01]Onto Tuesday, the wet weather's clearing eastwards. It's then showery.

[00:04:06]temperatures up to about 21 degrees in central and eastern England. So that's where the warmest conditions continue to be. But compared to the 35 which we had earlier in the week, this is going to seem like a much cooler and fresher setup and it's still staying very similar there in Scotland and Northern Ireland in terms of temperatures.

[00:04:27]Looking ahead to the next two days, Wednesday and Thursday, using the GFS data, it's a showery picture.

[00:04:35]temperatures not too far from the average. Perhaps if this is right, even a little bit below it in much of the UK, but all in all, the message is we're losing the heat. It's going to be a much more typical weather pattern which starts to become established through the first week. With that said, the nights still look rather muggy at times. These are the minimum temperatures according to the UKV model on Monday and Tuesday. You can see they're in the southeast in particular, East Anglia, 14, 15, 16°. Cooler of course as you head northwest, but it should be a marked improvement everywhere really compared to what we've had recently if you have been struggling to sleep. And the Mogre G Ensemble graph shows things very nicely. There's a clear downwards trend in temperatures at the 850 HPA level. So about 1500 m above sea level. Initially we've got this exceptionally warm air mass but the trend is downwards through the first few days then increases a little bit but continues dipping thereafter. And also the lines remain fairly close together which is indicating that the runs are showing very similar solutions. Hence confidence in this type of thing is quite high. The 2 m temperature trend fairly similar as well very warm to begin with but then it's dipping through the days which follow. And once more most of the individual runs within the ensemble are showing something very similar. The spread doesn't really increase.

[00:06:21]And it's not just the UK which is going to be losing the heat. The uh France will be too. These charts show the picture across Europe based on the European model. Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. The afternoon values. You can see the red and orange shading over France is replaced by yellows and light oranges. So temperatures from from the 30s down into the low to mid20s. Spain hanging on to the heat though. and rainfall. The 5-day accumulations, ECM and UKV charts here, the wetest conditions in the north and the west, indicating that transition to an Atlanticbased pattern, but all regions seeing measurable amounts of rain, which has not always been the case in recent weeks. So, I think quite a lot of farms and growers will be welcoming this sort of thing. Moving forwards to the 10day charts, the accumulations have increased everywhere and significant even in central and eastern counties of England.

[00:07:24]You can see there the orange shading in western Scotland and Western Wales on the ECM chart on the left indicating very wet conditions at times are likely.

[00:07:35]So a big big change and the deterministic models in more general terms all point towards the same scenario.

[00:07:44]Let's see. This is the GFS on Friday the 5th of June. So we're into the meteorological summer of course and nice nicely on Q. There's an area of low pressure center near to Scotland and that changeable pattern with showers or long spells of rain quite likely for wetest conditions mostly in the north and the west though with this setup.

[00:08:05]It's a similar view from the artificial intelligence version of the GFS. the German icon. Maybe more of a northwesterly tilt there, bringing in some of that cooler air which I mentioned, but changeable as well.

[00:08:19]Likewise with the European, it's very similar there to the German icon model.

[00:08:23]Low pressure over the UK or just for northwesterly flow. The artificial intelligence version of the European, once more, it's the same type of thing.

[00:08:33]Just a hint perhaps of more of a southwesterly and some warmer air filtering into the southeast and east anglia. Always worth keeping an eye on the UK Metal Office Global. The final model which we're going to look at a west or northwesterly tilt. So much much cooler than has been the case recently.

[00:08:53]So a good level of consistency between the deterministic models. But as we head towards the end of the first week, it's going to be changeable. temperatures going to be a lot lower than they have been in recent days. All parts of the UK could see showers along spells of rain.

[00:09:09]With the weather coming in from the Atlantic, you would expect the highest rain totals to be in the west and the north. The dest and warmest conditions to be in the south and the east. So, what happens though as we head through the second week? Of course, at this range, it's just about the general trends and probabilities using the ensemble data. So, here's a 16-day GEFS plot for London and the Southeast.

[00:09:36]Close to average, 850 HPA temperatures, but warming up later. You can see the thick purple line is remaining close to the thick black line, and there's reasonably good cluster in there. Most of the lines are near each other. It's as we head through the second half of the second week that that thick purple line starts to climb above the thick black line, indicating a greater chance of warmer periods. And it is worth noting as well that you can see a few runs are going much higher on here and earlier in the second week as well. They are what are called outliers. So they're not well supported. Hence they they're doing their own thing basically. But I have seen this type of occurrence [snorts] several times over recent years with the GEFS. And my view is do not discount these outliers. They are not the most likely solution by any means, but it's not out of a question. But we could see another hot or very warm spell developing at fairly short notice as we head through this period. In terms of rain, the number of spikes is indicative of the risk of rain at any given point.

[00:10:47]The more spikes, the greater the chance that it will be raining. And we can see there are a fair few continuing to appear through the second week. and one or two are very big there. They could well be pointing towards thundery downpours. But I think the the key takeaway here is that there's an ongoing chance of showers or longer spells of rain even in the southeast. 2 m temperature data tables from the GFS.

[00:11:13]Something of an upwards trend maybe later on. More of this orange starting to appear through the last few days.

[00:11:19]More red at the very end there as well.

[00:11:22]The reds for 26 to 30s. is even a little bit of the over 30. I think one or two runs are falling into that bucket, but they are outliers once more. So temperatures lower than recently, but I think not too bad between 16 to 25 through the days and that the the upper end of that band, the chance of reaching the upper end of that band is growing.

[00:11:44]Through the nights, the yellows 11 to 15s, a little bit of the orange there, the 16s to 20s. So, we are now at that time of the year when even during cooler and more changeable spells, weather, it's not necessarily the most comfortable sleeping conditions for many people in the Southeast. Up to Manchester, 850 HK temperatures are following similar trends to London, but along the bottom, I think from more spikes here. So, there is an ongoing risk of rain and it's generally a wetter picture than in the Southeast.

[00:12:19]the 2 meter temperature data tables for Manchester. Something of an upwards trend there. As we head through the period, there's more of this orangey shading beginning to appear. So, a growing chance of 21 to 25 Celsius, but it's the it's this shade of orange, the cooler one, the 16s to 20s, which is dominant. And through the night a fair amount of light green 6 to10s but the amount of yellow is increasing there later on also indicating something of an upwards temperature trend.

[00:12:53]Glasgow close to average and there's very good clustering here more or less throughout the second week. The lines the individual runs of the ensemble closely align to each other. They're packed together which suggests they showing very very similar uh scenarios just one or two which are breaking away from a pack. All in all though good agreement that these values are going to be fairly close to the norm but quite a few spikes on the bottom part of the chart. So rather wet weather continues. I think there'll be frequent showers or a longer spells of rain in the northwest.

[00:13:35]The two meter temperatures for Glasgow.

[00:13:38]Through the days, the yellow is dominant for most of the second week. Later on though, the amount of orange there increases. So for something of a warming trend through the days through the nights, not much changes. Light greens remain the main color in the column. So cooler of course as you head northwards and still a fair amount of dark green in there. So distinctly chilly compared to in the souththeast. As I've said before, I think quite a few people in the southeast will be quite envious of these cooler nights.

[00:14:14]Rainfall. The ECM probability charts are showing the percentage chance of five or more millimeters of rain falling on the first three days of second week. And once more, these are a lot different to many of the recent updates that I've produced. You can see the orange shading there in Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, southwestern England, and that's pointing towards around 50 to 60%.

[00:14:42]head further eastwards, particularly into central and eastern counties of England, and the chance drops, but it's still significant around 20 to 30% on each individual day. Moving forwards to the next three, and not a great deal changes. I think as often is the case, the colors become a little bit more diluted. That's due to an increase in the ensemble spread the further ahead that we look. But all in all, the patterns very similar and still a significant chance of relatively large amounts of rain in the northwest of Britain, Northern Ireland, and even Wales.

[00:15:23]The GEFS mean surface level pressure data table for York would offer some lukewarm encouragement if you're hoping for a transition back to more settled weather. You can see the amount of yellow in these columns increases. The amount of green which indicates low pressure dominated runs is falling and a little bit of the orange there. The strongly dominated high pressure category is starting to return. So I think the message with much of this data so far is that it's going to be quite changeable through the second week, but the chance of drier periods progressively increases particularly in the south. The message is reinforced by the U European artificial intelligence ensemble. This is also showing the mean service level pressure forecasts for York. You can see clearly there's an upwards trend there as we head through the second week. Although it is pretty low to start off with around 995,000 mibars. So even as we climb up we're only going to around about,5 as the median value. But the trend is the important thing and it is for um higher [snorts] pressure to start returning later on.

[00:16:41]The GEFS snapshot chart for Monday the 8th of June has the Azour's high pressure parked over the Azors and an Atlantic flow covering the UK. Maybe high pressure and warmer air starting to nudge into the southeast in particular as we head towards this part of the forecast period. And the um European ensemble has surface level pressure higher building up more strongly there from us.

[00:17:10]It's starting to become more influential. So there are some differences compared with the GFS. The general theme is fairly similar though and an Atlantic flow likely to be covering the UK.

[00:17:22]A more active one in the north and especially the northwest. So the wetest conditions would be found there which is what I've been discussing.

[00:17:34]So to summarize, week one, it's a very warm or even hot start, but it quickly turns cooler and changeable. So all parts of UK can expect showers or long spells of rain and stronger winds.

[00:17:52]Week two changeable once more with showers and outbreaks of rain. The wetest conditions are likely to be in the north and the west. The warmest and driest in the south and the east. And later on the chance of drier and warmer periods increases more generally, but it is a fairly weak signal at this stage as I've been discussing. Now there are those outlier runs which are quite keen on bringing back hot conditions relatively quickly. So it is something to keep an eye on.

[00:18:28]So there we have it. A major change in the weather. We're losing the heat, at least for now. The Atlantic is coming back. So that means it's going to be changeable showers along spells of rain. Wetest in the north and the west. That's how the meteorological summer looks like starting this year. Whether or not it's going to continue in that vein, well, let's wait and see.

[00:18:57]Anyway, I hope you enjoyed this forecast and found it useful. And as ever, if you did, please consider hitting the like button below and of course subscribing to the channel if you're not done so already, so you'll not be missing any of my future updates. Don't forget as well to stay up to date with the dayto-day weather developments by checking out the weatheroutlook.com website.

[00:19:23]Thanks very much now. Bye.

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