“Why Markets Are Soaring And You Can’t Afford To Eat” | Doomberg and James Lavish

Añadido: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]You have two separate economies that are operating in the US right now. And that's what we're seeing. That's why you hear this this disconnect. Auto loan and credit card delinquencies just hit all-time highs. So, how does that put with the market hitting all-time highs?

[00:00:11]>> The median American citizen took zero flights last year. There's a disconnect between the capital class and the labor class. That has never been wider. You could say it's a bubble and you could say the valuations are crazy and you could say OpenAI is a fraud and you could say that Oracle is defaulting. And you could say all those things and the market's going to run you over because the market's going to do what it wants and that's the current narrative. Some rando on Twitter knows more. The market is wrong. Shaking your fist. I mean, have a little humility. The market is brutally efficient and um so who knows when the market will tell us.

[00:00:46]>> Yeah. Actually, I want to tease that apart a little bit there for a second if I can, James, and get your sense on what what your short-term short-term medium-term view of kind of economic activity is. And the reason I'm bringing it up is because Bloomberg's putting forth this idea that we have a ton of supply of oil, and that's part of the reason why price isn't getting $150 a barrel. We got the UAE leaving OPEC, which I assume means they're going to be putting more barrels on the market as well, too. And then going back to that like Michigan consumer sentiment, I'm worried about like demand destruction.

[00:01:11]Is there not going to be the economic productivity going forward that we might see oil really crater if econom is slowing plus we've got all this new additional supply?

[00:01:19]>> Yeah, I mean you've got you you're getting a consolidation of of uh of economic um you know joy, right? So you've got this what we've been talking about for a while is a K-shaped economy.

[00:01:32]It's only getting worse. Um and so what you're what you're seeing is stock market all-time highs. Stock market is not the economy, but it is the economy.

[00:01:40]so deeply ingrained in the uh economic activity of the US now um that you know in in some way you look at this you say well how can the stock market make all-time highs while you've got consumer sentiment you know bleeding lower okay well let's break that apart a little bit first of all the Michigan consumers like all of the Michigan surveys are they're an absolute joke like that. Let's just call it what it is. You're talking about surveying somewhere around 600 people over and over and over again. By and large, they're um you know, far-left leaning or left leaning. And so, it's just the reality. Um, and so, but if you're you're talking about canvasing 600 people out of, you know, hundreds of millions of people in the United States, that's literally like canvasing one square inch of grass in an entire football field to determine what the sentiment of the whole football field is. It's it's nonsensical. That's number one. Number two, you're you are you know you have uh an issue here with your reg your just your regular consumer is struggling. I mean I I know people who are not um you know who are not in finance or have not do not own assets who are just wage earners and the wage earners are struggling more and more. Um you know the the Cantalon effect. I've written a lot about it. Uh Duneberg you've talked about I'm sure. But um you know the the headline this morning that crossed uh my my desk the first headline I saw was that auto lo auto auto loan and credit card delinquencies are in the US have just hit all-time highs. So how does that foot with the market hitting all-time highs when you've got people struggling? Well, you know, like I said, you've got the the wage earners are just they're getting poorer and poorer with the devaluation of the currency and the the rise in the real rise in uh inflation. It's not CPI. You insurance hasn't gone up, you know, 3.2% in the last three. That's just ridiculous. It's not that that's not um what people are really feeling. They're feeling the rise in house home insurance, uh, car insurance, health insurance, and then you've got the rise in in gas prices just kind of that just needles them at the back end here. But you go to the grocery store, they're they're they're just replacing goods with other goods.

[00:04:13]Um, and you know, they're they're people are struggling to keep up. multi-income families struggling because they don't have assets that have appreciated along with the stock market or they don't own gold and silver, they they don't own um you know, Bitcoin. And so that that has been um it's been really damaging to the average consumer. And that's what we're seeing. That's why you hear this this disconnect partially because there's uh those there the surveys themselves are problematic and partially because you just really do have a you have two separate economies that are that are operating in in the US right now.

[00:04:54]>> Look the S&P is semiconductors. It's it's chips. It's AI. It's um you know the technology powerhouses of the US.

[00:05:03]And that's all powered by natural gas by the way. And natural gas in the US is, you know, less than three bucks a million BTUs, which is less than $20 a barrel of oil. And the higher oil goes, the cheaper US natural gas gets because they're co-produced. And they just give away the natural gas in order to get more valuable oil. And so to build on what James was saying, I saw an amazing stat on Twitter. Full disclosure, I have not personally validated it, but I think it's true. And the account was pretty valid, although can't remember it now.

[00:05:31]The median American citizen took zero flights last year.

[00:05:36]>> Whoa.

[00:05:38]>> That means like like so for like the median, not the average of course. Yeah.

[00:05:42]>> The the median >> American took zero flights last year. Um that means like half of the Americans at least took no flights last year. Um, and for those who make their living in finance or can afford a few Bitcoin or can afford a few ounces of gold if you're me or you know um have no problem making your mortgage payments um that seems foreign. Your reaction is proof um that there's a disconnect between the capital class and the labor class that has never been wider in the country. And to bring it back to oil, this enormous bounty of natural gas, um the US produces 110 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas. Just to benchmark your listeners, um the entire amount of natural gas that Europe imported from Russia, the former Soviet Union before the war was 15 BCF per day. So the US alone produces 110.

[00:06:45]>> Wow. And all the arteries from the old Soviet empire into the old continent amounted to 15 BCF per day. The US has gone from no LG exports liqufied natural gas to 30 BCF per day by the end of the decade. I was in the industry when the Freeport LG export terminal was meant to be an import terminal because the the world thought that the US was running out of natural gas. The shell revolution has changed all of that. So you have this know we just did a doom zoom for our premium tier. Nothing but flyers on that list for sure. Um we the last presentation we did for um for the month of April was um durable energy dominance North America's natural gas advantage.

[00:07:31]The second slide is how China's AI race is powered by dirty coal and America's AI race is powered by clean natural gas.

[00:07:41]And natural gas is both in enormous supply and incredibly cheap. It's cheaper than coal. Um, and that is the fuel that is powering the AI race in the US, which is what Wall Street is betting on. And you could say it's a bubble, and you could say the valuations are crazy.

[00:08:00]And you could say OpenAI is a fraud, and you could say that Oracle is defaulting.

[00:08:04]And you could say all of those things, and the market's going to run you over because the market's going to do what it wants. And that's the current narrative.

[00:08:12]Um, by the way, I'm not long any of those trends. I'm just observing them.

[00:08:15]I'm long businesses I can participate in myself and gold. Um, and land and other things, but I observe them and I could see it and I wouldn't short it. I mean, this, you know, so back to James' point, this K-shaped economy, it's it's real.

[00:08:29]Um, and this is where, you know, there's only so much wiggle room Trump has. And so this is why we think, you know, that which can't go on forever usually doesn't. And what can't happen is the war can't light back up again. If it does, then you could see that print of 150 because, as we've said on other podcasts, the Middle East is like the light bulb section at Home Depot, except every light bulb is worth a billion. And if the war kicks off, you're going to be running up and down those aisles with a baseball bat just destroying stuff. And nobody needs or wants that.

[00:09:02]Quickly before I go to you, James Duneberg, do you have a just I'm not going to hold you to it, a rough um timeline of kind of when is too late to get things opened and running again where the like the economic damage has gone on too long? Um you know, that's a popular the same people who got it as wrong as we did but haven't yet admitted it um are just saying, "Oh, any day now."

[00:09:25]>> Um the market's really efficient, man.

[00:09:26]Like this is the part that I I find amazing. The oral market in particular is filled with the largest, most sophisticated, most most ruthless insider traders, you know, international operators, Greek ship owners, hedge funds, sharks, titans, and you know more than they do. Some random on Twitter.

[00:09:48]>> Yeah. Some some some rando on Twitter knows more. The market is wrong. Shaking your fist. I mean, have a little humility. I The market is is brutally efficient. And um so who knows when the market will tell us. The market is not screaming emergency now. Um and by the way the all these prices we're quoting are nominal.

[00:10:08]You go back in real terms. I mean, oil is incredibly cheap today at 98 or whatever it is as we're recording in real terms. And as James said, inflation is way higher than what CPI I know. I I'm an entrepreneur, right? In the sense that I work for myself. Um, my health insurance has compounded at 8 and a half% year after year like clockwork.

[00:10:30]Um, I mean, I see what the grocery bill is. I just I I have an order um, you know, a little little Burger King on on the way to a a property. I like to visit in two hamburgers, no pickle, and a small fry was seven bucks.

[00:10:44]80 yesterday. I mean, are you kidding me? That that was 350 5 years ago. I mean, don't tell me inflation's 3%. I mean, I understand that CPI might be 3%.

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[00:12:39]>> Just for also for the listeners really quickly because you're hearing what Duneberg said about natural gas and we're probably wondering what what he meant. Um if you know some of you what he's saying is that um the natural gas uh you know when you when you drill for oil and especially when you frack for it um when you break up the ground to frack for it you get what's called associated natural gas. and the associated natural gas comes up with that with that oil.

[00:13:04]And um often you're out in a field that there you've got no way to get it back to um a productive area, you know, a city or a town that would actually use it. So they just flare it. So when you're driving by these oil fields, you see these you see the the flame on the top of a pipe. That's just them. They're just burning off natural gas because they can't do anything with it. it's too cheap to move it um across in in trucks or uh you know or even you're never never going to build a pipeline unless you have a lot of different uh fields that you can connect together to get into a metropolitan area. So we just have a glut of it. It's everywhere. Um and the shell uh yeah the revolution really >> and so this is why like Bitcoin miners have been thinking about going out there because hey there's all this free energy natur you you can think about most home many homes in the US are powered with it like your your furnace your heat but then you cook with it you don't even need to ventilate >> that's right >> I mean that's how clean burning it is.

[00:14:02]Um that's right.

[00:14:04]>> Technically you're supposed to ventilate yada yada. Nobody does. So um but so this associated natural gas um anytime you have co-production producing just one of those is is bad.

[00:14:18]So it used to be that you either drilled for oil or you drilled for natural gas.

[00:14:25]The shell revolution brought them together. And so if you just drill for gas, that really sucks when oil price goes up because your competitor is drilling for both oil and gas and we'll dump the gas on you. And so this is why even though natural gas landed in Europe is $16 a million BTU, it's negative in the Peran Basin at the Waja Hub because they're not allowed to flare it anymore.

[00:14:47]They have to get rid of it. So >> they have to get rid they'll pay for it to get rid of it. like back in >> take it away >> or like back in COVID when oil went the oil filters went negative because you had all this oil you had to take delivery on. You didn't have the capacity like there was no there were no tanks to to to deliver it to and so you're like well I'm going to pay somebody to take this from me. Wild.

[00:15:07]Yeah.

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