Tamil Nadu Exit Polls: TVK Disrupts DMK And AIADMK Vote Share Amid Demand For Change

Added: 2026-04-30

[00:00:00]Professor Shastri, I'd like to begin with you on what you make of this. Look, I just put out the poll of polls picture each of them having a completely different projection from the other. How do you make sense of that? Do you think it's just the unpredictability of having a third player in the picture?

[00:00:16]>> A I think yes, at one level it could potentially indicate that this is a close contest. [laughter] um the you know the the fact that you have such varying numbers right from uh I think your poll the access mind is suggesting that TV potentially has a ch shot at forming the government uh and even those that predicting that NDA the AIDMK has a shot and those so I think the the numbers sort of suggest that this is a very very difficult election to sort of forecast um and as you highlighted one thing could be the emergence of a third party that's the TVK that the Tamil Nadu has historically been a bipolar DMK versus AIDMK sort of a battle and the emergence of the TVK could be seen as a disruptor and that's what's making it so difficult this time. Um the other point Axhata is what exactly is the role of that the TVK is playing because generally when we see in bipolar fights when we have a third player coming in it usually takes the space of a declining one of the two declining powers. Uh in this context with the DM AIA DMK in decline what one would expect the third uh party to actually take in the slowly start to take in the space of the AIDMK.

[00:01:36]But if the access my India polls are true, it's not just is TVK taking over the position of the AIDMK but is also eating into the vote share of the DFK which is >> the largest dent professor Shastri largest dent seems to be to the AIA DMTK. There's no doubt about that. Vote share wise if you look at it you know there is yes a number that's come down for the DMK but look at the AIA DMK as per the access my India numbers 22 to 32 that's a big big fall. So ultimately it is the AIDMK.

[00:02:06]>> Well uh yes uh I mean of course the AIDMK is taking the biggest hit but if the numbers that you're suggesting is to come true there has to be also a cut into the DMK's votes at least in certain regions. Um so I think that's something that's quite that's why it is so difficult to really predict what's happening in Tamil Nadu that um it's not just a third player sort of occupying the space of a declining uh AIAMK but potentially eating into the DMK and that's what's >> so Mr. Polaro then looking at these numbers and if they do hold good I'm going to constantly add that caveat but if they do hold true Mr. to pull her out. Would you refer to this then as a wave election irrespective of issue faces none of it mattered it was just a vote for Vijay >> speaking objectively without any partiality that's my caveat also and you know definitely it means they want change there's a big demand for change in Tamil Nadi the same the same faces for the last 40 years therefore there is Definitely one can see they want change they want a way let's say Palinwami is a very popular man but he's there 35 40 years as an MLA in the DMK you and I know I've seen you on the ground some of them have been there for 30 years as MLA one man has been there D Morgan for 35 years people may want change become an urbanized place and if that is the case then change nobody can stop change that's what we going to see and also once One small point I want to add. Both the alliances had lot of confusion. DMK partners I suspect I suspect they did not cooperate fully and cast their votes for the DMK candidates. 2% maybe 3% 1%. The same thing goes for ADMK in 2024 ADMK DMK PMK were fighting with each other then suddenly within 15 months you get them together it doesn't work. So >> no. So then Mr. Polaro let me give you a scenario. If we see a hung assembly, who do you think will the TVK join hands with? Do you see a Congress TVK combined? Will they have the numbers? If they have the numbers, do you see that combined working? Or do you think a TV ND TV AIA DMK is more of the formula that will work out?

[00:04:33]>> It depends on how many votes anyone gets. You [snorts] know, is it a hung assembly? As you say, if DMK gets less than 100 ADMK, you know, it all depends on who gets what. If for example the Congress is contesting 28 MLAs they win 15 hypothetically and they in a position they'll say goodbye to the DMK there no doubt about it they say well is a new boy in town and off they go. So you have to wait to see who gets what and whether it be assembly and one more point you know very well that for the first time if any of these raidian parties don't get that magic figure of 117 or 18 then all hell will breaks loose. I don't think they will all sit there the MLAs and wait for another five years and sign you know they won't they won't let me be presidents who they wrap up but >> it's a very unique situation to Tamil Nadu because Tamad has always given a very decisive mandate we've never actually seen a hung house so it's not a scenario that Tamil Nadu has ever been familiar with the other number I want to focus on is what we had on earlier uh of the most preferred CM face right now you know I've been saying this constantly that when I was on ground I didn't really sense any real anti-incumbency against MK Stalin that he enjoyed a lot of goodwill and despite that look at those numbers on your screens according to access my India 37% are for Vijay as chief minister 35% for MK Stalin and then 22% for EPS that's a big gap there 2% prefer Vijay over MK Stalin and this is a chief minister who professor Shastri has had a lot of goodwill you know there's no real sense of anti incumbency. If anyone in the DMK has been able to project the DMK in a good life despite the anti-cumbency, it's MK Stalin because they believe that, you know, he's done work for the state. He's brought in investments. He's ensured infrastructure. He's not been someone who's been extremely controversial. So, his image has been very clean and despite that, it's Vijay who's emerging on top of 37% people saying we want him to be the next chief minister. So then again I asked the question is this anti-incumbency?

[00:06:42]What really is a factor at play here?

[00:06:44]>> Um Ax I think a point that Dr. Polaro made is I think important and would be relevant to reading this number that people want change. Um and it could be a reflection of that that you know Tamil Nadu politics has historically been this uh DMK AIA DMK binary and now suddenly you have a third player who's making a serious shot at the uh you know at the chief ministerial post. Um and another thing if the numbers I remember the ones you were running through uh just before this discussion of younger voters preferring the uh TVK more and I think that further highlights this point that there may be a want for change particularly amongst the newer voters who are joining the voting pool. Um so uh the 37% that you know prefer Vijay as the CM uh it would be interesting to see what percentage of those are also the younger voters who prefer the who indicated their preference for the TVK.

[00:07:47]Um if those if there's an alignment with those numbers, it could highlight that uh it's not an issue of anti-inccumbancy but possibly a want for change that you're looking at uh you know people want to shift from this AI DMK DMK binary and for the first time you have an alternative which is having a legitimate shot at power. So >> I maybe I can deem it as anti-inccumb against Dravidian parties against both the parties you know uh while you expect an incumbent and so you expect anti-inccumbancy against the party in power I sense that this is fatigue across so I'd refer to it almost as anti-inccumbry against both anti-inccumbency built over the last 20 plus years now showing in this particular election if these numbers hold good professor Shastri Mr. Polar I request both of you to stay with us. I just want to give our viewers a sense of the kind of reactions that have come in since we aired this exit poll and I can tell you that it's rocked Tamir Nadu and how the data the numbers that Access My India has put out has led to shock waves about whether we're going to see an election that's truly truly historic in the state. Take a look at some of the political reactions that we've gathered.

[00:09:02]Other than asking pollsters, other than asking any survey people, you should ask people. You should ask the real voters.

[00:09:08]Go and ask real voters. You take a survey by your own. Ask 100 people's without camera. You ask 100 people without camera and you'll know the real what is the reality in the ground.

[00:09:19]Definitely you we know that 100%age whole Tamilad people trust our leader and definitely you will see the change.

[00:09:24]You will see the surprise and forth.

[00:09:27]say that he going to become chief minister and he had they say that in the reports say that they even formed the cabinet.

[00:09:37]See such talks when they when there is a performing government who the people will choose they want a performing government not ADMK. ADMK is not a performing government and particularly ADAPI is not a performing chief minister. So when you compare with the chief minister like former chief minister and our chief minister people will choose only our chief minister.

[00:10:03]>> We have been maintaining that we will win this election with a massive margin and the exit polls though they are conservative in my estimate the numbers given by these pollsters are conservative. I'm very very confident that we will cross the 180 mark. See TVK I think uh looks like and from what we could sense they have pulled good they have pulled good number but they are not going to be kingmakers or they are not going to make any change now in fact it is to the detriment of the ADMK party if TV has performed well that is to the detriment of the to the detriment of the ADMK party and the blame squarely falls on Mr.