June 1 Marks Start of Hurricane Season; Forecasters Expect High Activity | US News | N18G

Added: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]Tomorrow is June 1st, and that means Atlantic hurricane season kicks off.

[00:00:05]NOAA's team of experts is predicting a slightly below average season this year.

[00:00:10]CNN meteorologist Allison Chinchar explains why.

[00:00:15]>> Tomorrow is the official start to Atlantic hurricane season, and it's actually forecast to be a little bit slower than usual, which is fantastic news. The official forecast from NOAA calls for about a 35% chance of a near normal season, but a more than 50% chance of a below normal season. Now, what exactly does that mean in terms of numbers? On a normal season, you would have about 14 total named storms, seven of which would reach hurricane strength, three reaching major hurricane strength, which is a category three, four, or five level storm. This season in particular, the forecast calls for eight to 14 total named storms. So, we could end up getting up to what would be considered a near normal threshold, but it's more likely we'll have that number be a little bit lower. Same thing for hurricanes, the total number there expected is three to six total hurricanes. Now, the biggest factor in this forecast has been the upcoming anticipated El Niño event. Now, typically in an El Niño year, what this really does is it increases wind shear right here in this red zone, and portions of the Caribbean and the Atlantic, and that just inhibits further tropical cyclone development. In addition to that, you also get fewer storms that come off the coast of Africa, which often in turn become tropical systems several days later.

[00:01:30]Now, peak hurricane season, you can see really kind of ramps up right through here in September, but it really ranges from say August 15th to about October 15th. This is important because that is when we really anticipate seeing that El Niño begin to ramp up as well. In fact, when you look at the forecast here, we may end up being in a strong El Niño come September, October, and even into November of this year. So, certainly something to keep a close eye on as we get further and further into hurricane season.