West Asia War: Peace Talks, Fresh Strikes: Why West Asia Is Growing More Volatile | WION

追加: 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]Well, the situation in West Asia remains as delicate as it is volatile. And in the latest, the US military has rejected Iranian claims that the IRGC struck the headquarters of the US Navy's fifth fleet in Bahrain and a regional air base. But with fresh strikes, counter strikes and also tensions which are spreading across the Gulf, questions are growing over whether this is a series of isolated escalations or perhaps the beginning of a broader return to conflict. And to discuss this further, we're now being joined by Dr. M Jave Danfur. He's a West Asia analyst and lecturer of Iranian politics at Reichman University in Israel. Dr. David Danfur has also co-authored the nuclear sphinx of Thran. Thank you so much for making time for us Dr. David Danfur. Now over the last 48 hours we've seen Iran linked missiles and drone activity targeting Kuwait and Bahin and there have been reports of explosions around the Kesh Island as well along with the fresh US retaliatory action. Now for weeks the narrative the dominant narrative was that the conflict was moving towards deescalation. But now the facts on the ground seem to suggest otherwise. Now according to you, are we looking at an isolated violation of the fragile ceasefire or are these the early indicators that the region is sliding back towards a broader conflict?

[00:01:12]>> I think this is negotiation through the continuation of low intensity conflict.

[00:01:19]There is no ceasefire. This is not a ceasefire. The suit the two sides are firing at each other while calling what is happening by while some are calling it a ceasefire. This is not a ceasefire.

[00:01:33]What is happening is that the Americans received a draft of a um statement of agreement, a draft agreement regarding the points that they're going to include in a framework agreement. They disagreed with some points. they sent it back to the Iranians. The Iranians are meanwhile thinking about their position. So we are not really nearing at the moment reaching an even a draft agreement or statement of intentions between them. So meanwhile that this is not happening, the two sides are trying to protect their interests. The Americans are saying that the Iranians are threatening shipping and threatening their forces and the and so they're attacking some Iranian positions and the Iranians are are retaliating against the Persian Gulf countries because that's the best way that they see uh that's where they see America as being most vulnerable and they are attacking their positions. for example in Kuwait as it happened today that to be honest with you this expect this to continue for for the immediate term but it will come to an end and eventually the two sides will reach an agreement they have no other option >> right and Dr. to we hear you. But Trump has recently claimed that um he has secured commitments from both Israel and Hezbollah to halt attacks. Yet within hours we saw fresh strikes, rocket fire and Israeli operations continuing in southern Lebanon. Now does this expose the limits of American leverage that it has over its allies and adversaries? Or is this simply the u you know reality of trying to enforce a ceasefire in such a fragmented conflict environment?

[00:03:23]>> Dure you ask excellent question.

[00:03:25]Excellent questions and um your propos are even better. Uh it's the second part. It's the second this is just the reality which it's very difficult to force right now Israel and Hisba to start to stop the fighting.

[00:03:40]Hezbollah is adamant to continue its campaign against the state of Israel because its forces have been battered recently. And also Iran uses Hezbollah to pressure the United States because the Iranians realize that Israeli security is important part of this whole future agreement between Iran and the United States. Americans would not want to be seen as abandoning Israel to the wolves to Iran's to Iran's allies in the region. So the Iranians realize this. So the Iranians want to pressure the Americans. They see the soft underbelly of American negotiation position as being countries in the Persian Gulf, which is why they're attacking Kuwait, for example, this morning. And this is why Hezbollah continues to fire on the on Israeli positions. This is just to this is in order to push the Americans to accept Iran's position. On the other hand, the Israeli government does not want to be seen as to being passive against Hezbollah. This is Hezbala who started this war two days after the October 7th massacre on and um the Israeli government which is running for elections in September this year does not want to be seen as it is passive and it is not responding to threat. So this is a situation that has developed. It is escalating. It is entered a cycle of violence between the two sides and it's right now it's very difficult to put a cog in this cycle in this wheel of violence to stop it. Right Dr. Javeid while this is the situation we're in right now when this conflict began the US was talking about fundamentally changing Iran's behavior across the region but today the message uh it appears far more focused on one objective which is ensuring that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon. But before this war, Donald Trump was actively cultivating the image of a dealmaker and a peacemaker, often speaking about, you know, his ability to resolve conflicts. And now with more than three months into the war, what would Trump consider a win that he can sell to the American public?

[00:05:56]>> That's an Well, that's an excellent question. Again, I would say President Trump needs to open up the Straight of Hormuz without giving much to the Iranians, at least without being seen as giving much to the Iranians. Second of all, he needs to get that enriched uranium in Iran, uranium that has been enriched by to 60% and that is the closest to weapons grade uranium, which is 90%, he needs to get that stockpile out. You can't get it through special operations. At least this is what we hear because it's under huge rubble and it could take a while and it's very difficult for Israeli or American commandos to be operating in Iran for more than a I for for a continued space of time. It could be days I've heard even weeks. So this is very dangerous. So it's very difficult to send special operation troops to get that that the enriched uranium out. So, President Trump would need a deal to get that out. So, he can't settle without opening up the straight of homes, without getting the 60% enriched uranium out of Iran and finding a solution to Iran's enrichment program. This could be getting Iran to agree to cease uranium enrichment, which is one possibility.

[00:07:16]The other, which is more probable, is get to get the Iranians to completely suspend uranium enrichment for a period.

[00:07:24]I think the Americans are asking for 20 years. Let's see if President Trump can get that.

[00:07:30]>> Absolutely. And while these two concerns remain the main points of contention here, opening up this regular form and of course the nuclear question here. But when you step back and look at the region as a whole, there seems to be this um growing disconnect between the diplomatic messaging that we're seeing and also the military reality on the ground and leaders keep talking about deescalation yet new fronts are continuing to emerge as we've just uh discussing. But now in your assessment, what do you think would be the single biggest indicator that we should watch over in the next few days to determine whether West Asia is heading towards renewed large scale hostilities or perhaps there is scope for a more durable deescalation which is in sight.

[00:08:09]I would advise our friends in India and in Southeast Asia who are dependent on gas and oil imports from the straight of horus to not to be optimistic.

[00:08:22]If they believe that the straight of horm is going to open up within the next week or 10 days, I'm I don't think it's going to happen. I hope I'm wrong and it will, but I'm very pessimistic. I think it could take at least another month for the Straight of Homes to open because the negotiations between Iran and the United States are so cumbersome. You know, it's not like Iran is sitting in one room and the Americans are sitting in the next room and they're negotiating across the table or the Iranians are next door and there's somebody get ne going between them and getting their positions declaring their positions and they're negotiating through proxy in the same hotel. You have the Americans in the United States of America sending messages to the Pakistanis. The Pakistanis send a message to the Iranians. The Iranians have to get that message through couriers and through secret couriers to the supreme leader because he's worried that Israel or the Americans want to kill him. And while you and and he also has to consult with other Iranians who have to do this in secret. And this all takes time. This all takes time. I mean, if this if they were next door to each other or in the same room, it would have taken time because the two countries have been through a war, the two countries have had hostile relations for 47 years.

[00:09:43]There's a new supreme leader in Iran who wants to make his mark. So, this is going to take a while. And I would say first and foremost, don't be optimistic that the straight home is going to open up within the next couple of weeks, perhaps even a month. Second of all, I think the best thing we can look forward to is a statement of agreement between them. A statement of agreement, not actual agreement to say, okay, they're going to open up the straight of horses temporarily and then they're going to negotiate for the rest of it. That's the best we can hope for.

[00:10:17]>> And let me add another element to this.

[00:10:20]There are many possible scenarios of escalation between the two sides. You cannot predict escalations can happen with and get out of control without either side wanting to.

[00:10:34]Absolutely. Dr. Mi Javean and friend now looking back in retrospect. It seems like starting the war by the United States was the easier thing to do. But now it has crossed that threshold from um where the conflict has taken on a momentum of its own and where it goes from here. Of course, we'll have to wait and see. But for now, thank you so much Dr. Jave Dun for making time for us and sharing your insights with our viewers.

[00:10:55]Thank you.

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