Australia: This Massive Storm Will Bring Rainfall To Everyone...

Added: 2026-05-18

[00:00:01]Good day folks. It's Josh here from Cycl and this is your detailed Australiawide weather forecast update for May 18th, 2026, Monday. Hope you had a fantastic weekend. But we've got a massive storm barreling across central Australia moving into the eastern states this morning. And it's delivering some muchneeded rainfall particularly with a focus on the southeast Queensland coast as well as through northern and northeastern New South Wales. Expecting some significant rainfall accumulations in the next 48 hours. As this system heads out into the Tasman Sea, it's expected to present even more rainfall for coastal areas of New South Wales and Queensland. And then we've got a significant amount of follow-up rainfall now in the forecast models behind this.

[00:00:35]All as a very dynamic climactic pattern begins to unfold across Australia. Now, if you are brand new to my channel, please do consider subscribing. But let's get stuck straight into the details right now. Looking at the elephant in the room, and that is, of course, that cloud band. It stretches for more than 5 and a half thousand kilometers this morning from west to east originating out to the northwestern corner of Western Australia right over the Northern Territory through southwestern Queensland into New South Wales, Victoria, even Tasmania. And the tail end of this cloud band is beginning to push in towards the southern peripheries of New Zealand. So, it is absolutely huge. It's definitely a case of more bark than bite, but there are a few areas of rainfall, including through southwestern Queensland and northwestern New South Wales where patchy falls between 20 to 40 mm have unfolded overnight. We've also got a bit of a coastal flow underneath these showers underneath this cloud coming in in the form of showers from the east and that's delivering respectable rainfall accumulations through most of southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales. Unfortunately, in this case, rainfall has remained strictly coastal and in areas that don't necessarily need much more rainfall. Can you believe that's saying it for this portion of Australia, but with coastal showers coming through a few places on the southeastern coast of Queensland have picked up between 20 to 50 mm overnight with more rainfall continuing to fall and expected to fall as this system gathers strength. As we talked about yesterday, the focus of the discussion as this rainfall event comes closer and closer to the coastline is going to be that squash zone and where those isabars get compressed the most.

[00:01:57]Of course, the trough which is driving a lot of this cloud and rainfall activity currently sits over central portions of New South Wales and western portions of Queensland. Coupling that with the surface trough and onshore flow that's coming in here off the Pacific Ocean.

[00:02:09]You can see that those troughs are still pretty far apart. But as these troughs draw closer together, keep in mind they're being almost gravitationally attracted to each other. we're going to get a squash zone unfold and that's likely to focus a period of moderate to heavy rainfall most likely in northeastern New South Wales but also through southern and southeastern peripheries of Queensland where heavy rainfall is going to be a possibility tonight into tomorrow morning and we can highlight that quite accurately here with the forecast modeling here. You can see right now the isobars not too tightly packed around uh Queens, particularly on the Queensland side of things. You can see we do have that trough beginning to protrude in here from the north. And we've got that surface trough here with that coastal flow beginning to dominate here across the northeastern coast of New South Wales. The usual spots where that rainfall has been quite heavy. But those isobars are not very tightly packed this morning and uh loosely packed isobars like this means a very shallow pressure gradient which means relatively calm and stable weather even though we do have some showers currently unfolding. Now, as we continue to play this rainfall forecast forward, you can see that trough strengthens. In fact, we might even see a weak surface low pressure system develop through northern New South Wales later tonight into early tomorrow morning. But those isabars get more and more compressed. We've got the contrast between low pressure out here into central portions of Queensland and high pressure out into the Tasmin Sea.

[00:03:19]And as those isabars get tighter and tighter uh together, we are likely to see heavier rainfall and more stormy and turbulent conditions. As a result, isobars get even more compressed through early Tuesday morning, and that's when the focus of the heaviest rainfall is expected to be on northeastern New South Wales. We're generally speaking expecting a band of light rainfall and shower activity to stream in here through New South Wales and Queensland.

[00:03:41]And that's going to deliver the bulk of this rainfall here for inland areas, rural locations in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales with a focus of heavy coastal shower activity when that rainband originating from the west meets up with that coastal inflow here coming off the Pacific Ocean and the Tasman Sea. And when those two bands of rainfall meet, I mean, you can see it here on the radar imagery. We've got that band out here further inland and that band here along the coastline. When these bands do meet up with each other, which is likely to happen along the coastline, that's where the focus of heaviest rainfall is going to be, which for coastal locations is likely to be much later tonight through early tomorrow morning. Talking about rainfall accumulations, a bit of a reduction for Queensland, but our forecast still holding firm here. New South Wales is always going to be the focus of this excellent rainfall potential here. We noted that with the southerntherly shift in the track of the low pressure system here, plus with that low pressure system expected to be a little bit stronger, just about 10 or 15% stronger compared to yesterday's forecast. That's going to concentrate the rainfall around it. Low pressure acts as a driving force for rainfall because we've got a lot of rising air uh around a an area of low pressure and that of course that lift generates that convective development.

[00:04:45]Now, where that low pressure is expected to track is, as you saw, kind of along this red line here, which is sort of where the focus of the best rainfall is going to be, at least for inland locations. Rainfall accumulation through northern and northeastern New South Wales, particularly through our rural corridors, likely to be between 20 to 40 millimeters. A few spots will get closer to the 50 or 55 mm mark, which is excellent rainfall, particularly for far northeastern New South Wales, which really do need that rainfall. So, places like Mory, Narbry, Invaril, and Glenn Inis, we could really do with 50 mm. We could do with a whole lot more than that, but it's an excellent start here and some much needed drought relief coming in for those areas. It's not going to break the drought, but it is going to go a long way at curbing some of the significant expect uh the implications that this drought is beginning to result uh in across this portion of New South Wales. Queensland a little bit dry, but still a good swath of falls expected to be between that 10 to 30 mm mark. A bit of a reduction from yesterday's forecast, and again, that is due to that low pressure system being that little bit stronger, magnetizing that rainfall around it. But we're still looking at some halfway decent rainfall accumulations in these areas. Keep in mind, Queensland was never expected to be the focus of this heaviest rainfall.

[00:05:50]It was always going to be in New South Wales. Our coastal areas are expected to pick up the bulk of the rainfall accumulations here. You can see as I zoom in a little bit of an increase compared to yesterday's forecast. A few spots here north of Newcastle up to about the New South Wales Queensland border. In fact, most locations here along the coastline likely to see in excess of 50 mm. could get closer to 75 or even 100 millimeters in a few spots.

[00:06:10]With the bulk of the rainfall being focused offshore, we will likely see rainfall accumulations in offshore areas getting up to about 150 mm, but of course that is irrelevant. The far northeastern areas of New South Wales likely to be the land areas that pick up the mo majority of the rainfall here.

[00:06:24]Again, falls likely to approach 100 millm in some of our traditionally wetter locations. Now, when we see rainfall patterns like this coming in from the coastline, we often see numbers dramatically exceeded. And again, yesterday was forecast to be quite wet through most of southeastern Queensland, particularly yesterday uh afternoon and evening, and that has panned out, but rainfall accumulations up to 50 mm into the scenic rim overnight. That's far exceeded forecast expectations, and that's because showers are generally harder to interpret on forecast models.

[00:06:49]So, you can see here we've got quite a bit of rainfall, and rainfall rates here are actually getting quite up there.

[00:06:53]This is about 20 to 25 mm an hour in some of the more uh heavier showers coming through in these areas. And of course, that's far exceeding what the forecast models are expecting at this point in time. You know, a couple of millimeters an hour is what the forecast models are anticipating right now. Now, as this gets a little bit heavier through this afternoon and into this evening, we're definitely expecting some significant shower activity to unfold later tonight through northeastern New South Wales. And there is going to be a localized risk of flash flooding in a few of these locations. So, we're thinking coastal areas around Lismore, Grafton, Coffs Harour, and Port McQuary.

[00:07:23]As that uh squash zone really does unfold as that low pressure system begins to move in from the west, and we do see that coastal flow really begin to increase. In fact, it turns a little bit more northerly, which is quite favorable because it'll pull in a lot of moisture.

[00:07:35]There is definitely going to be that flash flooding risk through northeastern New South Wales later tonight. There's also some elevated instability levels just briefly along the coastline later this afternoon and into this evening.

[00:07:45]There's going to be a few spots where Cape values begin to get up to about 5 or 600. that's going to be somewhat favorable for storms to develop. I don't believe storms are going to go severe, but there will be that very isolated chance of flash flooding developing in these locations. So, do keep an eye out and take it easy on the roads if you are planning commuting around. This is likely to be a focus though after about 6:00 or 7:00 at night. So, most likely not going to coincide with rush hour traffic, but it might be a nice night to, you know, spend inside and uh maybe not driving around too late. Uh if that does make sense. It's a Monday at the end of the day. So, uh, yeah, definitely a little bit of heavier rainfall coming through into the far northeastern reaches of New South Wales. Will be a bit of an interesting one to keep an eye on later today. Like we spoke about, Queensland definitely not the focus of the rainfall anymore, but still some good numbers just as we drag the cursor around through here. Widespread falls between 20, increasing to about 30 or 40 mm here closer to the border. And of course, again, with northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland on the coastal peripheries, there is likely to be some somewhat heavier rainfall accumulations in those regions.

[00:08:41]New South Wales though definitely picking up the bulk of the rainfall and as you can see rainfall expected to be quite widespread and expansive throughout the course of today. Most areas today and early tomorrow are expecting to see at least 10 mm through at least central and eastern portions of New South Wales getting a little bit lighter as you get into the southern portions of the state. But we're talking about the entire eastern coast today and into tomorrow. The interesting thing is that this is not where the rainfall ends. This system gets itself offshore pretty quickly and you can see as we head out towards Tuesday, afternoon and evening with rainfall very quickly easing from the west. You can still see this low pressure system holding quite firm out here and by early Wednesday morning we're actually expecting quite a deep cyclone to develop out here into the Tasman Sea. extremely warm waters adjacent to the New South Wales coastline, which is what's going to aid in producing more areas of rainfall later today and what's actually aided in already making rainfall patterns across coastal locations a lot heavier than what forecast models have predicted to be and what is usually quite apparent at this time of the year. But through tomorrow, we are expecting the warm waters to really bode well for this low pressure system to develop. We're expecting a very large area of low pressure to develop towards the end of the week, but it is most likely to happen well offshore from New South Wales, closer to New Zealand in fact.

[00:09:48]But what's likely to happen here is instead of getting northerly showers and showers coming in from the north off the Coral Sea, we're actually expecting a bit of a strong southerntherly flow to develop here as a high pressure system develops towards the south of this area of low pressure. Now, whilst this is not an east coast low or a significant severe weather threat, it is likely to translate to areas of increased shower potential through most of northeastern New South Wales and towards the weekend, this is likely to jump up into areas of southeastern and southern Queensland as well. We're not going to be talking about anything too crazy or ridiculous in the way of rainfall accumulations, but between Wednesday and Saturday, falls up to 100 millm on top of the 100 millm that falls over the next 24 to 48 hours are certainly going to be a possibility. So, a very wet period about to ensue for coastal areas of northern New South Wales. But keep in mind, we're talking about showers here. This is not a predictable straight line rain event or a tropical low or anything like that coming down the coastline. This is showers, which means rainfall will be patchy. It's going to be quite hit or miss, and some places are going to pick it up big. other places are going to miss out completely. The good news for Queensland at least, I know a lot of southern and southeastern Queensland absolutely drenched at this point in time. On the coastal side of things, inland areas, it's a completely different story. Rainfall is not as welcome through southeastern Queensland.

[00:10:54]Um, but because this low pressure system is actually going to be bringing in winds from the south or even the southwest at a point in time, it definitely favors New South Wales for those heavier shower potential as opposed to the southeastern coast of Queensland, which is likely to be a little bit more protected in a weather event like this. This low should remain far enough offshore though as to where it's not a significant severe weather threat. Um even if it did get a little bit closer. This is quite a shallow area of low pressure. The GFS is keen on this potentially becoming a very brief severe weather threat on uh Friday. Uh but the only way that I see that this gets warnings issued is if it is for hazardous surf or big swell conditions and beach erosion across the northern and central coast of New South Wales. So do keep that in mind. But yeah, quite a large area of low pressure and it's going to have a field day out there because again waters are very very warm for this time of the year at least offshore from New South Wales. 22 closer to the coastline pushing closer to 24° even in spots. 25 showers going to be very heavy when they do come ashore thanks to those very warm sea surface temperatures. More rainfall is likely to follow this event. Can you believe it?

[00:11:52]We've got another area of kind of northwest cloudband or cloud feature coming in uh from Queensland and Central Australia in general towards the end of next week. So, Wednesday, Thursday the 27th through to about the 30th of May.

[00:12:04]This is a bit of an interesting one here. Still on the long range. We've discussed it briefly in recent forecast updates, but again, between ridges of high pressure, it could be a bit of a corridor of rainfall coming in here fueled by moisture coming in from the east and more tropical moisture into the deep layer coming in from the north and the northwest uh from the Indian Ocean.

[00:12:21]Again, very typical for this time of year. Northwestern cloudband features.

[00:12:24]This one a little bit smaller and tamer and likely a little bit drier in size.

[00:12:28]And as we talked about in yesterday's forecast update, this is greater than 10 days out into the future. Now, there's no real skill in forecasting more than 10 days out into the future using the numerical forecast models, which is what we're using right now. This where we switched to ensemble forecasts, which I don't have access to on this platform.

[00:12:42]Now, ensemble forecasts are hinting at a brief uptick in rainfall, but I believe this to be really overbaked on the longer range forecast modeling. And you can see between other longrange forecast models, even the GFS, which has been quite aggressive on this so-called rainfall event, it keeps it strictly coastal, which makes a little bit more sense. And whilst low pressure is likely to develop somewhere over the eastern coast of Australia, whether it's onshore or offshore, it doesn't look like it's going to be a major storm event for southeastern or eastern Australia at this point in time. And of course, the uh Taylor's oldest time, you said El Nino, so why is it still raining? El Nino hasn't even developed yet. I've got a full length video. There'll be a link in the description explaining that plus a link at the end of the video as well on your screen. But as we talked about just briefly, I expect El Nino to more significantly impact areas out here. Uh impacting Western New South Wales, Northern uh Victoria, Northern South Australia, and into portions of far southwestern uh Queensland and southeastern uh Northern Territory. Not a really big corridor. Like I said, a very strong Elino expected this year, but likely not that significant in terms of impacts. And that is all because of extremely warm waters around the eastern coast of Australia. that's going to kind of counteract some of those impacts that El Nino typically brings. So, interesting video, full length, lots of details in there. I do thoroughly recommend watching it. The feedback on it has been excellent as well. Now, a bit of a different story. We've been very much focused on Eastern Australia.

[00:13:57]I want to just briefly talk about southern and southwestern Australia real quick. Uh, and I want to do that by turning on the pressure forecast here.

[00:14:03]And we really are in a pressure cooker kind of setup across southern Australia.

[00:14:06]Lots of high pressure over the next couple of weeks. We do have that area of low pressure, like I said, that's bringing that rainfall coming through today and tomorrow. That's expected to be kicked off into the Tasman Sea very quickly by high pressure. And of course, that high pressure coupled with that low pressure into the Tasmin is what's going to drive some showers for New South Wales and Queensland towards the end of the week like we discussed. But it's going to keep South Australia, Victoria, Tazzy, and most of New South Wales, particularly inland and southern locations, high and dry as we head out towards the end of this week and into early next weekend. This ridge isn't quite as strong as the last one that we saw, and it's going to pretty quickly get itself off towards New Zealand. But another ridge expected to develop in its wake and that's going to keep things high and dry until at least next week.

[00:14:43]So the 25th of May onwards and then a strong high pressure ridge into the bite expected to develop just behind that one. That should keep things mostly dry by a few areas of coastal showers and maybe some inland light rainfall potential on the Queensland side of things as we head out to about the 31st of May. So right through to the end of May looking very dry and settled across southern Australia. And that will also go for southwestern Australia as well.

[00:15:06]So, Eastern Australia continues to cop the rainfall and that is again because of that East Australian current remaining very warm. That's got nothing to do with the current ENSO cycled right now which is of course in neutral.

[00:15:15]Southern Australia which is where ENSO does impact the most particularly during our wind months. That's where the dry weather is remaining and again a lot of stable weather expected at least over the next 7 days but probably over the next 14 days for southeastern, southern and southwestern Australia, northwestern Australia and just northern Australia in general. more moisture coming through that's likely to result in the development of showers and thunderstorms through the Kimbley and Pilra regions of Western Australia. We've got a bit of a coastal trough that's expected to develop through Wednesday and Thursday.

[00:15:41]That's going to translate to areas of showers and thunderstorm activity mostly offshore into the Indian Ocean, but it could translate to a couple of areas of shower and thunderstorm potential over the Kimbley and the Pilra regions. It's really going to be that sort of stuff that kind of gets itself inland, pushed ashore by uh flows. Uh but it really doesn't look like it's going to be anything too significant or too heavy and it's going to be very isolated in nature as well which makes it not only very difficult to forecast but also a case of it's going to be hit or miss.

[00:16:06]Your neighbor might get nothing, you might pick it up big or vice versa. It is going to be quite patchy and hit or miss in nature. A bit of rainfall then extending towards the end of the week over the uh I believe it's the Hamsley ranges and then through into the iron or fields of the Pilra region and then eventually into the north and the south interior as well through Thursday and Friday. And that rainfall here kind of coinciding with the northwestern cloudband ahead of a very weak cold front pushed ahead by a high pressure system. In fact, that's what I'd like to call a pseudo cold front. It's very very weak in nature as we head out towards the end of the week. But that could translate to areas of rainfall then beginning to push over into central western Australia and maybe even into portions of western SA and the Northern Territory. It'll be interesting to see how that one pans out at this point in time. But yeah, rainfall potential is there for the for the Kimbley and the Pilbury region, but it isn't anything too crazy or too heavy right now. One thing's for sure, this deep-seated moisture across uh northern Australia is really presenting us with quite a wet May picture. We do sometimes see this every now and then. Uh but yeah, those high pressure belts hanging far to the south, especially for this time of the year, keeping things pretty turbulent all things considered on the light rainfall side. No thunderstorms associated with it through the Northern Territory, WA, Queensland, and now as we're seeing into New South Wales as well. Interesting, interesting, interesting. A very dynamic May picture, that's for sure. And have a look at this weather system here. I've zoomed right out to include the Australasian region.

[00:17:23]You can see Indonesia through here.

[00:17:24]Where my face cam is, there's India.

[00:17:26]Just have a look at how dominant this cloud band is here. Extending from north to south or I guess from northwest to southeast over 5,000 km. In fact, there is a distance tool here on Windy. Let's have a look at just how far this cloud band extends. So, from there to down about here, uh that's yeah, 5,000 km.

[00:17:44]But if you were to actually extrapolate that and use the actual length of the cloud bend here, closer to 5 a half th000 km. It's a behemoth. It's huge.

[00:17:50]That is for sure. But I'm waffling for way too long here. I do hope you enjoy these kind of longer forecast updates. I enjoy producing them. So, if you could show your support by leaving a like and also subscribe to the channel, that'd be much appreciated. And also, thank you for the support on all the recent videos as well. It is massively appreciated.

[00:18:04]But that'll do it for me today. Have a wonderful Monday and a return to the week. And I'll catch you all in the next storm. Goodbye.