Geopolitical crises create interconnected challenges where diplomatic negotiations, energy markets, and military actions are deeply intertwined. When Iran withdrew from peace negotiations with the US, oil prices spiked dramatically (reaching $94/barrel), demonstrating how political decisions directly impact global economic stability. The crisis revealed that political leaders often face only 'bad choices'—accepting unfavorable terms, risking economic collapse, or escalating to war. Iran's strategic threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab highlighted how regional conflicts can disrupt global supply chains, affecting economies worldwide. The analysis showed that effective crisis management requires understanding these complex interdependencies between diplomacy, economics, and military strategy.
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US-IRAN NO PEACE CAST - DAY 97 - w/Malcolm, Jacob, WajeehAdded:
I'm Malcolm Nance and you are tuned in to the Black Men Spy podcast. Welcome from wherever you are. We know people are coming from all over the world. Uh I'm Malcolm Nance. I'm your host and you are here for day 97. Too much confusion.
Maybe warcast, maybe peace cast. Who knows? We're going to play it by ear.
One thing that I learned yesterday is by the end of this podcast, everything I tell you will be contradicted will be I don't know it. So many crazy things happened in the 45 minutes when we finished between 10:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. Eastern time yesterday. I was on Waj's podcast to talk about uh the breakdown in negotiations and then I went on Mario Noel's podcast to talk about a whole series of attacks and and the craziness that was going on and while that was happening all these crazy statements were coming in from the White House and the Knesset and all sorts of places. You know what? Let me We're just going to tell you what happened. And as good analysts, all of you are going to be able to absorb this within the continuum of your intelligence process that at each one of our specialty desk like Jacob Carsbow, Danish intelligence officer extraordinaire with his uh Russian warship go f yourself coffee mug. Good job. Edoy, go find yourself a dick. That's what that literally means.
uh he's operating on the Europe North Arctic and uh Middle East desk. And then on the other side, we have a regional specialist, Waja the Gay Lion, who hails from the Middle East via Minneapolis, Minnesota, because that's where all the really good Middle East experts go, right? and he's got his uh his handmade crafted mug that he picked up at some uh you know Renaissance fair or something.
I don't know. Uh but when the problem is when he goes to the Renaissance fair, he doesn't dress like you know a knight or anything like that. He goes as Salahadin Alubi defeating >> defeating the first Islamic defeating the first crusade or the I don't know which one he beat. I might have been the second or third crusade.
>> That being said yeah that's hilarious.
>> Yeah I I go as a I go as a slave. So uh Jacob goes as a crusader as a as a Templar. Well good to see you have to make it to Ke. You know, I don't go >> You go in the wrong direction. That's not quite a crusade. Okay. And I'm coming to you from my secret lair in Canada where I am holding up until I finished the copy edit of my memoir, Thinker, Sailor, Black Man, Spy, and I am still sporting the Grommit coffee cup with my beloved Nescafe 3 in one in there. I lived when I was in the Ukrainian army. I lived on threein- ons. I lost so much weight. All I had time for was a two or three threein ones throughout the day. If you don't know what that is, it's something that's sold overseas. I cannot find it in the United States. You got to order it through Amazon. But they're these little packets and it's got coffee, sugar, creamer in there, all three in one in one packet. And they're like little bullets for waking up in the morning or staying awake when you're on patrol. Uh, it's just one of those things. So, Dawn says she wants that cup. I might auction it off. Jeez.
She wait. I got to do it right.
By the way, in case you guys have seen the Wallace and Grommet movies or you've never seen the Wallace and Grommet movies, the only one you should really see is uh Case of the Were Rabbit. That is such a freaking funny film. I cry laughing every time I see it. The jokes in there are precious. And uh and they've got like this insane cast like Ren Renault Fines is the the bad guy in there and um uh just all these crazy British actors who do their voiceovers in that show uh for that movie. So cheers to uh Wallace and Grommit. Uh okay. Uh, wow. We're moving up there really fast. Seven minutes. Wa, you want to hit us with the oil prices, please?
It was crazy yesterday. It was going up like a dollar a minute at one point >> and it, you know, oh, it was just nuts.
>> So, >> and then it back down for you today, >> huh? Okay. West Texas Intermediate looks like it's at $91.20.
Still up $4 from what it was yesterday morning. It hit 94 yesterday and then came down a little bit. Brett Intermediate is at or Brett Crude is at 94. That was at 96 yesterday. It was a skyrocket in that one hour after our show. I mean literally the minute this show ended yesterday, oil exploded because of the news which is the most significant activity of the day. We have the report Iran yesterday they coordinating with the Israelis said don't make any announcements until Malcolm's black man spy show is finished.
The minute this show went off air, I got a notice. I was at Waj's show and uh I I got a notice that the Iranian negotiators walked out of the peace talk. They said they have withdrawn from the peace negotiations. They are in no communication with Washington. Uh we've confirmed this morning, I think Waj, you said something about that, that their Pakistani intermediaries are like, "Yeah, they're [ __ ] gone. They're out. They are out of this thing. Boom.
Oil in 45 minutes. Shut up. $7 a barrel, right? And then you have those those holders on who were going, "No, Trump's going to say something nice about it.
Trump's going to say something nice about it." By mid late afternoon, Trump was saying things like, "I don't care about negotiations.
>> I can wait as long as they want.
>> I don't care too much.
than what he said.
>> I'll get the quote for you because that is exactly what he said. He said, "I don't care about peace talks. I don't care if they're over here. Here's the quote.
>> They were starting to bore me."
>> So, we're going to Well, so here is the most significant activity. Uh, this is from Eman Jabvers. Uh, I think he's Where's he at? Financial Times or something like that. CNBC. He was a financial organization. I spoke to President Trump on the phone last hour about the end of negotiations with the Iranians. He told me, "I don't care if they're over." Honestly, I really don't care. I couldn't care less. If they're over, they're over. If they're not, you know, I think they took too much time.
Frankly, I thought they were started to get very boring.
So the entire fate of the global economy is like >> they're not doing what I want. I'm bored.
>> Since when do do our politicians compare about like complain about boring? Their whole job is supposed to be boring. like you're you're meant to sit down and do the most boring [ __ ] ever and then every once in a while you're supposed to have excitement. So like with some cool ideas, but the whole idea is that you are there to serve the people to tr to to to be a servant for your nation.
>> Okay?
>> And that means you're sitting down doing a lot of boring [ __ ] and you chose to go into this war. Iranians didn't choose to go to this war. It was your boring idea.
So, could you please get finish this up?
And then he adds up. He goes, I can he he also said I could wait as long as they want. In another statement on a true social, he writes, I can wait as long as they want. We can't wait as long as they want. You can't wait as long as you they want. Maybe as Trump, you can wait as long as they want, but the rest of the world is in a in an acute situation if you have not felt it. But it just tells you everything that this man is so disconnected from the rest of the world in reality that it doesn't affect him. So it doesn't matter.
>> It doesn't he doesn't care. Um this is really something we talked about quite a few times and I hope it's seeping into people that there are three sets of people at or who are having discussions here. Okay. On his right is the devil with the pitchfork. That is the money men who are saying, "Hey, listen. I know people are making money by manipulating the market and everything, but overall, everyone's going to lose hundreds of billions on this thing. You've got to put an end to this." And I think in truth, I think he's really panicked internally.
He's not saying it. This is external consumption, right? He's not saying it.
This is his [ __ ] I'm strong. Boom boom boom boom. I'm the guy who can can solve all matters because the only thing that matters is me as an individual. Um I think when that camera goes off and those phone calls hung up and those money men are talking to him about you, the entire global economy will collapse.
Now the indicators to him that things are bad are when the Saudis and the Qataris and the Amiradis start making noise like no Trump Tower Riot, no Trump Tower Tash Kent, no Trump Tower or super secret uh bond villain submarine base turned into a echo resort off of Albania lair. That, by the way, is Kushner class submarine base that's in the uh and I know this base. I' I've steamed off of Albania back when I well I won't tell you what kind of missions I was on but when I was there on floaty floaty things uh some of which were above water some of which were below water you know you you hold off of Albania and Albania back then my first missions was a third world [ __ ] hole with a dictator who hadn't eaten a bullet yet so um it was always considered >> a hood shot >> yeah and it's a coast that's covered with pill boxes. Like every 10 meters is a pill box faced out towards it. This guy was the Kim Jong-un of Europe. Um >> he was nuts. Uh but now Echo, it is a bond villain echo resort that's being converted into a billion-doll offthegrid playground for you know uh for Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, uh and all the other billionaire pedophiles because Albania one of the last holdouts of uh I'm certain most of you have never met an Albanian woman. So, uh, another resource that these people can all play with while they're there, right? It'll be the Epstein island of Europe when it's done.
>> So, that means >> Albania in a few months.
>> You're going to Albania? Where? Torana?
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
>> Yeah. Okay. I've been to Toronto. Um, it reminds me of a Russian trailer park with water.
>> Yeah. You know, >> but it's things are happening in in Albania. I I don't know if uh our viewers need >> they need to go and watch uh the Daily Show >> John Stewart yesterday >> about the uh the negotiations where he has compiled all Trump's statements about 95% and it's almost and it's happening now and the Iranians are desperate for a deal until yesterday where he suddenly said it was the the Democrats and all the pundits that were ruining it. So, John Stewart compares it to potty training where you're not allowed to to talk about it. You're not allowed it won't come out if you talk about it and all that. Don't you call it potty training?
>> Yeah, potty training.
>> Yeah, I I had babies in the US, so I I should remember. So, uh >> Okay, >> hilarious. Go watch it. So, this is a good example of where Trump uh and again, for those of you I know there's some people that Nance, he's anti-Trump, he's anti- MAGA. No, I'm common sense.
I'm for all sorts of rationalized intelligence. This guy's coming off like an unhinged Idi. The thing about it though, Idi was actually a rational thinker and had the decency to retire to Mecca for the rest of his life when he was put out of power. not so Donald Trump, right? Um he's coming off more like uh uh you know, Mobu Sego or or what some of these crazier characters, you know, Papa Doc Du Duvalier.
You know, for those of you who don't know, just Google those names up. I am not going into those histories again.
Yikes.
And they were real dictators. But, you know, back in the old days, dictators had the decency to just shut up, take their billions of dollars, and retire to the French Riviera. Now, I guess they're going to the Albanian coast. Uh, it reminds me of that u that movie, what is it? Knives Out, right? The Glass Onion.
And if you haven't seen that movie, go see it. That is the Elon Musk movie. Uh so that being said, Trump just doesn't give two flips because to him there are people telling him the US is getting crazy rich by selling oil out of Texas.
Uh yeah, but they're selling it to the other side of the world. The US population is suffering greatly and he doesn't care about that because to them that's a non-starter, right? What does he care about? uh what the average person pays for gas. He doesn't pay for gas at all in his armored, you know, his six-tonon, you know, armored vehicle.
So, that being said, Trump saying this is true on one hand. On the other hand, he has panic within his White House cabinet because I think he really understands some of this, especially the straight of hormones, is costing him money in the long run. and his friends who support him money. That's it. He doesn't care about whether, you know, gas goes up to $7 a gallon on average in the United States. So, this led to another interesting component. Um, I had a long hourong talk with Mario yesterday and I said Iran is actually playing very smart ball. uh they made a statement, let's see if we can find it from the foreign ministry that the ceasefire that was agreed to 40 some odd days ago uh in Iran in the straight of Hormuz, it was agreed to by all parties that it would have a ceasefire everywhere.
And he said that he goes, "Hey, wait a minute. The ceasefire in the in the Persian Gulf was supposed to apply to the ceasefire in Lebanon. And so we are withdrawing our negotiators. Not because the United States had a clash in Bandorbas, not because the Israelis carried out an assassination in Thran, not because they fired ballistic missiles at Kuwait. They are pulling out because they are now tying the entire ceasefire to Israel's activities in Lebanon. And the reason they're doing that is Israel had prepared and was making signs that they were about to completely gazify South Beirut. They were going to do a blitz against the Daha neighborhood in South Beirut. And the Iranians pulled their trump card if you want to be honest. They essentially said, "Okay, [ __ ] y'all. We are not even playing in your game anymore. Peace.
either you get on the phone to Netanyahu or every dollar that's being lost, we'll crash the world economy.
>> And we've said precisely that would happen uh I don't know how many times but uh quite often we've said at some point that will happen and it happened yesterday. Yesterday, yesterday, literally before the show ended, I was trying to say that Iran's patient is growing thin and in the game of chicken, they are least people going to they're not going to blink first and therefore they are likely to take the first action to escalate the whole situation.
>> And they did.
>> Who briefed Trump? It's got to be Netanyahu.
Uh because the Iranians are never going to brick. Never. They had a 10year war that cost them almost a million men.
They had a battle of the cities with the Iraqis. The straight of Hormuz was attacked all the time. Who keeps in convincing him that Iran will break is beyond me. Excuse me.
>> Yeah. Well, just in addition to to to that, the Iranians uh are raising the stakes. The Islamic Revolution uh guard corpse issued an explicit directive threatening a total non-negotiable closure of both the Strait of Hormuz and Babal Mandra.
This marks a massive expansion of Iran's second order maritime um closure. Uh we talked about how dangerous that would be because Baba Al- Mandab is the only other uh exit that Europe has into the warm waters without having to add another 14 days >> trip to cross Africa back into the Indian Ocean. Um, >> well, >> unless you guys comment on that.
>> Let me read Aranchi's statement. Sorry, I got something in my contact. So, I may have to step out here in a moment just to wash it out. It says Aranchi's statement yesterday was for immediate attention. I like the way he's sort of using a reverse. He starts he starts off, you know, with attention. Thank you for your attention to this matter. with immediate intention. The ceasefire between Iran and the US un is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts including Lebanon. It's a violation on one if it's a violation on one front is a violation on all of the ceasefire on all fronts.
The US and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation. And that's when IRGC command came out within minutes because I called you right after this. I went on Waj's podcast to talk about this and within minutes IRGC came out and started threatening saying uh we not only have control of the Straight Hormuz, we can start exercising control of the Babandab if this ceasefire collapses. And I thought man that is a real threat. That's a serious ass threat. Asia will get nothing. Nothing.
No oil will go to Asia. Right now, all the oil that's coming out of Saudi Arabia is going through Fujira and Yanbu through the Red Sea. And Fujerra is vulnerable to ballistic missile fire.
So, I mean, that's a serious ass threat.
Europeans, they can deal with it, right?
But, um, the rest of Asia cannot. And that's where you know all these fledgling economies. I saw a program on Alazer yesterday. give you an a an example of secondary, tertiary, quadrary effects of how in Myanmar, every farmer in Myanmar is having to hawk off their family um valuables, spend the last of their money because gasoline has gone to some crazy amount like 10 bucks a gallon, and they can't operate their little putt putt diesel tractors that are these tiny trash Chinese-built tractors. They look nothing like our tractor. They look like something out of the 1800s and they can't rice farm because the because all the gas that's cut off from the Persian Gulf.
>> It's it's crazy. What do you guys say while I once again I say the the big problem for Trump is that he's in a situation where he only has bad choices.
Uh the first bad choice is to accept uh the Iranian position and that is uh a bad choice but it's probably the all the others are worse because if he rejects the Iranian position the clock is ticking on uh the oil shock you know uh two three weeks we're looking at 150 160 as we talked about on this show. And uh the the third choice he has is to restart the war and then uh the oil price will probably search even higher because then the Iranians will close Babel Menddeep, attack Yanbu, attack Fujira and uh and then we're looking at I don't know 180, 190, I don't know. So, uh, he's only got bad choices to make. And, uh, he claims he only wants a a great deal. Good luck. Uh, it will be, uh, putting a whole lot of lipstick on a on a pig, but it'll still be a pig.
>> I I wish they would at least try to put some lipstick on this pig, you know.
God, they don't even try that.
Okay, that being said, let's talk about the phone call. So, as I said, there are two separate sets of demons on Trump's shoulder. On the right hand side, he's got Benjamin Netanyahu. On the left hand side, he has the economic factors that are losing money for all of his multi-billionaire rich friends. And they are losing money. I don't care if they're game in the market, doesn't matter. you're going to lose money. Even the oil companies that are running in the United States, those tanks will start hitting tank bottom here. They said September you're over and done with because we're consuming more than we put into the United States. And even worse, these rat bastards are selling off all the oil that should be coming to the United States at auction for much higher. So, this isn't going to last higher. and even sending a BLCC to Japan.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I find that absolutely hilarious how the Japanese the Japanese viewed it like the arrival of the [ __ ] you know, Titanic. It didn't hit a uh it didn't hit an iceberg. And what's absolutely amazing about that is that it's a drop in the bucket of what Japan needed that day.
That day. You don't go, "Oh, 900,000 barrels of oil has arrived. America is now providing only 4 million >> to Japan."
>> Yeah. You're only 2 and a half billion off from what they needed. That oil was eaten before breakfast, right? It was gone. It was like a snack. It was like one of It was like It was like one of those those little Japanese rice candy snacks. Gone.
>> All right. It wasn't even a a decent bit of of of of sushi.
>> Okay, as if that wasn't enough to make a point, um, Hisba has been attacking Israel. Let's just be honest about this, right? For those of you who think this isn't all on Israel, and I said on a couple of podcasts yesterday, if Hisba and the Iranians were smart, they would just stop attacking Israel. Because what's going to happen after that is that Israel is going to do what Israel does, right? Not Israel. Netanyahu's administration is going to do the cats, Ben Gavir, Netanyahu team are going to do what they do best, which is mass murder civilians. Let's just be honest, right? There is a military aspect of this. I would like them to wipe out Hisbala. Great. However, it's the way they're going about it. Right. Zahaba Mala is saying the same thing. Hisba has been attacking. You're right. His bullah has been attacking and it's his it's Iran's job to rein that [ __ ] in. And the smartest thing they could do is stop freaking firing. These rockets are nothing compared to ballistic missiles.
But they do harass. I told you I've been to northern Israel under fire, under rocket fire. Uh everything north um everything north of Hifa is getting hit with rockets and there's a 100,000 200,000 civilians that cannot live in their homes so long as they're firing rockets off there. So what does that do?
That makes Israel invade Lebanon. What does that do? Brings more rockets. What does that do? Makes Israel invade further into Lebanon. What does that do?
Bring more rockets. Iran needs to cut that [ __ ] out. They do have influence here. If you don't want South Beirut raised, entire occupied, you might want to stop Isbala from firing, right? Uh that being said, uh they have been firing drones and rockets into northern Israel all over the place. Matula, Hanita, Roanikra, been to all these I haven't been to Matula and Safed. Uh I'll bet you they're even hitting the Donald J. Trump uh kibuts up there in the Goland Heights and you know if that gets hit by a rocket fights on baby Trump will really attack.
>> That being said, Trump started listening to the little demon on his left shoulder which is the oilmen and then he realized once the Iranians walked out he actually did care and he immediately called Benjamin Netanyahu. So, let's go over the Netanyahu phone call.
You won't believe this.
So, Trump, this came from Barack Ravit at Axio, so you know it's accurate. And it was Trump trying, he has a really serious problem of looking like he's in Israel's pocket. So he decided to get on the phone and have a screaming match with Benjamin Netanyahu because he apparently really did care that the Iranians left negotiations and he saw his Nobel Prize for ending the war that he started slipping away. So he got into a fight. Oh, by the way, for those of you who are wondering, there is a chat on Substack. You can post your questions. It's been up since 6 this morning. Day 97.
Okay, so here's one of the things that was put out by Axios.
Axios reported that Trump exploded at Netanyahu calling him [ __ ] crazy and said, "You'd be in prison if it weren't for me." He said, "Everybody hates you."
You know, now I actually believe this happened.
I believe this happened because don't forget >> there's anything to do if you don't care.
>> Yeah. If you don't care, he apparently very much cares cuz this is money. Look at Mama Day is laughing her ass off there, right? But Barack Ravid uh put it out that that Trump called him [ __ ] crazy, said he would be in prison. If this is the reason I believe this is, you know, I used to do a podcast with Michael Cohen and Love Barnes. Both of them worked for Donald Trump. Both of them went to prison for Donald Trump.
They have inducted me into believing.
This is his modus operandi. He thinks everyone he works with is indebted to him. He he works with people who are broken so he can blackmail them. He will bring people in who have criticized him.
JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, he will get something on them and he will blackmail them and remind them that hey, you know, things will work out financially better for you if you are with me as a loyalist. If you reig on all the stuff that you did, a good example of that is um uh gosh, who was it that ran against Barack Obama in 2012? I've already forgotten his name, right? Uh, Mitt Romney.
>> Mitt Romney. One of the first things Trump did was have a dinner with Mitt Romney, a private one-on-one chat with Mitt Romney. And the moment it was done, they released photos of Mitt Romney eating escargo. And they started calling him a French lover, a fake American.
Right. The only way that Trump you can get any respect from Trump is what Zoran Mandami did. Oh yeah, you're a fascist.
[ __ ] you. Right right to his face. And then he'll go, "Oh yeah, I am a fascist.
[ __ ] me." I mean, it's just incredible.
So this is why he went to war with Netanyahu because he really does care about what's happening and the money people are telling him. Fourth of July, $6 a gallon gasoline on the Fourth of July weekend. That will be the end of Trump. And the polls are starting to show it. What do you guys think? Why did he go after Netanyahu?
>> Yeah. Well, to to all these allegations that it's been Netanyahu playing Trump uh got to his head and uh yeah, then he he went back uh to show that he was >> he was the the big boss.
Well, not only that, the the thing is is kept showing that regardless of what Trump comes out and says, regardless of what sovereign decisions the United States is trying to make, they can easily undermine the United States diplomacy and undermine the US intelligence by just make taking their own actions whenever they want and escalating whenever ever they want when we're obviously trying to deescalate.
So, it's just a natural way of creating tension. Uh you have the Gulf States all calling you on one hand and threatening that they would cut off all of the economic uh promises that they did. Um you know, you have Saudi Arabia that promised a trillion dollars of investment into the US economy. You can kiss that goodbye.
You had billions of dollars worth of investment from Papa in the United Arab Emirates.
He can kiss all of that goodbye.
>> Now, in addition to that, Trump is losing his towers.
>> So, you add all of those up, you can just imagine the type of pressure and the tension that just puts on a relationship.
>> Mhm.
Well, I I just want to actually get down into that because apparently that discussion was completely centered around Lebanon.
Trump told Netanyahu, "Don't you dare bomb uh Dia and Beirut. Don't carry it out." Now, this being said, there is a contradiction in place. I have it right here. Uh for everyone who's saying, "Oh, that's not right. that didn't happen.
Well, Trump's favorite mouthpiece other his right-wing mouthpiece is Mark Lavine. Mark Lavine came out within minutes and said, "This is treason.
Whoever said this story to Axios is a traitor and it's a violation of federal law and provide support and that you're providing support to the Iranian regime by releasing this and you're supporting his balarazzi." So here he is calling the white house sources his ball of proxies at the exact same time confirming every word right Barack Ravid said about that which means it really happened. It really happened.
>> So uh this is this is absolutely funny and uh Mark Lavine threatens that it's the Israeli people who will be mad at Trump.
Well, don't forget that a couple like a month ago, Trump says, "I'm the most popular figure in Israel, right?" Uh, definitely more popular than Netanyahu.
They he said, remember, he said, "They could vote for Trump and I would be prime minister of Israel and the Pope and the the Supreme Allied Leader of Shia Islam." And >> I mean, this guy lives in a crazy fantasy world. I swear to God, >> if this were president of Bundi, I would enjoy writing up these cables and intel reports on this. I would have a grand old time. But no, it's the president of the United States who is mentally ill and apparently has lost his grip on reality. That being said, yes, anybody?
Okay.
>> Yeah. What did the Iranians then do?
>> What? The Iranians, they went out and had another cup of tea. Uh, and >> more what else? How else >> didn't they put a hole in a tanker?
>> Oh, yeah. Well, that actually happened just beforehand. I'm getting to that, believe it or not, >> that was 17 hours ago, so it was before that call. Um, >> okay. And it's so insignificant that the Iranians fired two anti-ship missiles into an oil tanker off Kaser Kuwait that it's at the bottom of my list for today.
Actual open warfare is at the bottom of the list for today. Well, once again, >> just a hole in a tanker. Come on.
It is great.
>> You're just a hole in a tanker.
>> Are you not entertained?
>> I'm just saying for anyone who's missing this fun, you are really missing something. Please guys, hit those little hearts down there. Um, I think that there is an actual adjustment going through Substack. We've dropped 3,000 followers in less than a week. And I don't know if any of you guys have dropped followers, but uh no one's going Matt Malcolm Nance, I'm signing off from him. We're having the exact same fund that we had on April 14th when we were at our peak, nearing 97,000. We want to try to get to 100,000 because that means we'll get a broader uh group of people, but we're still holding at number 10 in world politics. How that happens, I don't know. So, in order to make it even more fun this morning, almost as much fun as receiving a Grommit mug, Donald Trump wrote on May 18th, 2026, "If Iran surrenders, admits their navy is gone at the bottom of the sea and their air force is no longer with us.
And if their entire military walks out of Tehran, weapons dropped, hands held high, each shouting, "I surrender. I surrender." while wildly waving the representative white flag. And if their entire remaining leadership signs all the necessary documents of surrender and admit their defeat to a great power and force of the magnificent USA, the failing New York Times, the China Street Journal, corrupt and now irrelevant CNN, and all other members of the fake news media will headline that Iran had a masterful and brilliant victory over the United States of America. It wasn't even close.
The Democrats and media have totally lost their way. They have gone absolutely crazy. President DJT, >> he put that out on May 18th.
>> And then for some bizarre strange reason, >> he put it out exactly word for word again, >> did he? on the 6th >> and then on a 100 a.m. rant he put it out again last night.
>> It was that brilliant.
>> He he wanted it out again. It was >> It was brilliant.
>> He keeps watching He keeps watching the same anime over and over again. Not a movie, anime.
>> He keeps watching the same anime over and over again and gets the inspiration of that exact quote. and goes, "Yeah, that's the moment I need to share this quote to let the world know Iraq to their knees and they will know that they're on their knees. We have destroyed all of their equipment. We have knocked out all of their mountains.
We made sure that we use half of our weapons to hit the rockets in Iran.
Like, come on, please."
So, the person who every Israeli would pick for prime minister, Donald John Trump, put out a tweet, I'm going to move out of the way so that you can see this. Put out a tweet yesterday right after his, "Hey, unconditional surrender. Drop your weapons. Walk away." I don't know who's convinced him of that, but there's a report that the Israelis convinced him of this in the run-up to the war.
Netanyahu said that the regime was on the verge of collapse and all we had to do with this operation in Bush and Trump believes it to the bottom of his heart and he wants them. Why don't they put up white flags? The guy thinks that this is the Iraqi army in 2001. I mean it's it's not happening there, bro. 1991 2003 they were Shia being oppressed by Sunnas. Of course they walked away. So here's what Trump wrote yesterday. I had a conversation with BB Netanyahu today.
This is a different conversation, right?
Asking him not to go into a major raid of Beirut, Lebanon. He turned his troops around. Thank you, BB. I also had a conversation with the representatives of the leaders of his bulla.
>> What?
>> Direct direct link there.
>> Whom exactly would you be calling? I know who he talked to because it came out while we were there. He did not talk to his bala. He talked to Nabi Barry, a guy who is the former head of the Amal militia. When I was 20 years old, Nabi Barry was leading the Shia Muslim push against the Americans. Um and then his bala popped up as a massive organization organized by Iranian intelligence and Barry sort of fell off the map. Um except during the TWWA847 hijacking.
Anytime we want a guy in a really [ __ ] expensive suit to speak for his bala. Uh we call Nabi Barry. And I mean this guy is a sample rowwearing dude.
Okay. So he says, "I also had a conversation with representatives of the leaders of Hisbala and they agreed to stop shooting at Israel and its soldiers." Likewise, Israel agreed to stop shooting at them. Let's see how long this lasts. Hopefully, it will be for eternity.
President Donald John Trump. Well, eternity apparently was about 20 minutes.
Immediately after he put that out, Benjamin Netanyahu came out with this tonight. I spoke with President Trump and told him that if Hisbala does not cease attacking our cities and citizens, Israel will attack terror targets in Beirut. This stance of ours remains unchanged. In parallel, the IDF will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon. So, um, two entirely different narratives, three entirely different readouts of the same phone call, and Netanyahu, this is Netanyahu's demon pushing back, going right into Trump shoulder, and he's like, "Fuck you. No, you're going to dance to our tune."
>> The question is, what will happen today?
What will happen today? Will Israel bomb Daha as scheduled, which is what's on there? Could be guys could be happening right now. Okay, we all know we're we're 15 minutes from the end of the show and you know at minute 16 right the idea the IIAF right scramble scramble scramble Malcolm is finished his show it's almost like they schedule it and I'll have to go and watch his show to explain why Ah, >> okay. Let's >> Well, during the during the day over here, it has not looked as if they've stopped anyway.
You know, it looks like they're continuing the the push u in Lebanon, as far as I could tell.
>> Well, it may have been an operational pause. Whoops. Sorry about that. I said it may have been an operational pause.
paused long enough to put bombs on planes. And today is Tuesday. Thank you, Terry K. Wonder. Today is Taco Tuesday.
So the question is, what will Trump taco about today? God damn it. Now I want a goddamn taco. So you guys got to stop this. I should just everything. Mexican night.
>> And that shows a guaranteed.
>> Okay. While we were talking, breaking news did happen. And I am not going to >> play this Fox News clip so that I don't violate anything on YouTube. Right. Uh, this is from Trey Ying in response to this tweet that I just read to you. Trey Ying uh, reporting from Tel Aviv dropped a bombshell.
Ready? Trump announced 21 minutes ago, it was nine minutes ago when I had to clean my contact, announced that an Iran deal, a massive deal with Iran could be done in the next week.
>> Wonderful. I >> 95% >> 95% taco.
I just can't figure out if it's a chicken taco or if it's a beef taco or if it's a halal, you know, halal kosher taco.
>> I I I think it's ve It's vegan to be honest.
>> Vegan. It's vegan.
>> I think it's >> a vegan taco.
>> I think it's solidly >> Whoa. Whoa. It depends. It depends. I don't know if you've had highly seasoned Thai tofu grilled or or deep fried, but that stuff tastes better than any meat in there, right? Tofu taco. And it's delicious. You know why? Because like Millie Vanilli, it takes on the flavor of whatever it's clean. It's it's fried in, right? So >> has And we already determined that it was that guy Palatus who died. Was he Millie or was he Vanilli? Can't still can't figure that one out. Okay, in unimportant news, a US flag a USowned oil very large crude carrier sitting off of Omaser off Kuwait City was hit not by one but by two anti-ship missiles. The Iranians played that they launched it.
The first one did not have the desired effect because anti-ship missiles travel along the top of the water and they tend to hit at the water line. If that VLCC was um loaded, which it appeared loaded, I'll get you the pictures. Um uh cusser uh it's like throwing a brick into a uh into a uh into a mud, right? Because all that's in it is boatloads of mud, right?
It's just full of oil. But the second one set it on fire. So, here's a video from Unaser, uh, from Baba, whoever Baba is, uh, showing the VLCC off, oh, actually, it's not a VLCC. It looks like a container ship, um, offer with a giant hole filling with water.
And actually, if you see it, it looks like water's coming out. That's because there are obviously pumps in there uh, running that out. That ship is at rest.
Yeah, it's a container ship, Santara or something like that. Sentara 4, but we have not seen a large anti-ship missile deployment by the Iranians. They are holding on to those anti-ship missiles. Uh we've maybe seen seven or eight of them fired in this war that we can confirm were not drones. See that hole? A Shahed drone won't do that.
That's a big ass one ton HY2 or Silkworm or some variant that they can afford to lose. And the Iranians showed a video of the launch of that missile. So, it might have been one of their C81s.
Uh here, I'll bring it up now. Iranian cruise missile.
Here's the video of the launch.
Ah, there you go. I can show you right here when it comes out of the truck.
Now, that's a C82. It's a Chinese style sea skimming anti-ship missile built by now built on contract by the Iranians.
And it comes out of a box launcher.
Obviously, these box launchers are safer up in up near Bandar Kini or s north central southern Iran as opposed to way deep south Iran. But here's the launch.
E rockets, America.
And there's the result. And a second missile was fired at it. The fire was put out. UK Maritime Trade Office did put out an alert for that. Okay, that's the least important thing that happened.
Yeah.
>> And I'm sure that in the next 10 minutes, 8 minutes that we have on this show, it will just get more contentious.
Let's see if we can go to the questions.
Here we are. Substack. Plenty of room for what it was called this week. And I answered a bunch of questions, you guys.
I do go back throughout the day and I answer questions, especially if they're comments.
Um uh somebody asked, "Is it possible Israel has moved entirely to signature strikes? In other word, target list by fulfilled by sensor fed algorithm triggers." Yeah, maybe. But right now, any strike out of Israel is a political strike. Um Netanyahu likes uh someone that goes PJ Schustster said, "Damn, I overslept and missed the war cap." I'm gonna have it up for you in about 10 minutes, PJ. You can watch all the fun.
And it was pretty fun today. But that's because we're laughing so we don't break out into tears. Um, Israel now is doing political strikes, even if they are tactical in nature, like in Lebanon.
As you see, Donald Trump has ordered them stopped. And Netanyahu agreed, except that BB Netanyahu said he said no such thing.
Go figure.
Uh, what are the Arab states saying about the latest twist? Waji, are you seeing anything out of the Gulf States?
Belie, not yet. No, I need to go into Twitter spaces and hang out in there for a little bit in Arabic.
>> Uh, okay.
>> It's uh, and I was asleep, so yeah, I need I need to go hang out there before I can give you guys full opinion.
Oh, okay. We'll get more to that tomorrow.
>> Um, >> only question I have is how we're going to get rid of this guy. Well, Teresa, just wait for that. You know, what do you what do you call it? That uh patriotic hamburger to do its job. Um, somebody put this picture of us up.
We're not Millie Vanilli. Who are we?
Are we the Backstreet Boys? Are we uh No. Isn't this uh the those guys from Brooklyn?
>> Uh not the Backstreet Boys.
You know what's fun about that? I have dreads and I threatened um I threatened to put dreads on at one time to my wife and said I'm I'm going to get a weave of dreads down to here, you know, and run DMC. No, it's the Beasty Boys. You're right. That's what I'm thinking. It's the Beasty Boys. Could be serious.
>> Yeah, we could sing Sabotage and it would mean something.
>> Okay.
>> Could be.
>> Oh, okay. That That's funny. You guys are way too funny.
Okay. Um Millie Vanilli Cast Baby. Dig it. Um if the US pulled its naval assets from the Caribbean and went all in to project on a Project Freedom type mission, could that succeed? Yes, but apparently that would require planning and forethought and mindfulness. None of which exists in the Trump White House and definitely not in the Trump Pentagon. No matter how many smart generals and admirals insist that they use common sense, none of that's allowed.
Uh, okay. Meanwhile, Ruse says the Knesset had been dissolved in Israel. So maybe Trump would try to muddle the waters like he's done with all of his other right-wing allies and fellow travelers.
>> I don't know.
>> Maybe he's going to try to get elected prime minister.
>> All he's got to do is get you. If the if the left and the if the Jewish left and the Arab right and the Christian block were all to come together to get Trump in there, right, to get rid of Netanyahu? You never know. It could happen. I don't think there's anything, somebody correct me, Ru, you would know.
Is there anything in the Israeli constitution that says you have to be Jewish to be prime minister?
>> Don't know.
>> Can you Can you Can you convert? I don't know.
>> Can maybe you can go on on your aliyah.
Uh I by the way qualified for aliyah.
>> But Trump is way above all that you know.
>> Yes. Cuz he's pope imam.
>> Yeah.
>> You know he's what do constitutions matter?
>> There is that little matter of him.
>> I was going to say there is that little matter of him thinking he's Jesus who as you know is a rogue rabbi. And I'm not sure how that would play with the Israeli right. Um, okay. Let me see. I see a lot of comments, not a lot of questions. Mo, Larry Johnson, ex CIA guy, he's the guy that came up with some crazy conspiracy theories about Obama, said on Mario's show that Pakistan negotiators told Rubio that Iran had a nuke and were prepared to test it to show the world. If nobody talks about that [ __ ] if you got them, you smoke them, right? You don't sit there and go, "We have a nuke and if we're going to use it, we're going to test it." Yeah. He's like, "What? You want that to get to Washington? Here's how you get it. You throw that [ __ ] out into the desert and you blow it up and you go, we got three more."
>> And then suddenly you're North Korea. No one's going to screw with you, right?
That's what happened to North Korea. Uh, somebody is to log off because I needed to make a phone call before 4:00. So, Jacob, we will see you tomorrow.
and I will answer the rest of your questions online. So, thank you everybody for coming.
>> See you tomorrow, guys.
>> Okay? And Waji and I will be holding the fort because I know watch the moment I press end the war begins. And don't forget, we are still overdue. Wait, Israel doesn't have a constitution? Okay, thank you, Judith.
Somebody Where's my guy Dan Goldberg?
He's he's he's my in-house Tel Aviv.
He's not even I don't think he's in Tel Aviv. I think he's in Jerusalem. Uh which is I love Jerusalem. Uh I'm writing a book, by the way, a fiction.
I've been writing it for 10 years uh about a uh well, I I can't tell you what it's about. Let's just say it was written in the time of Jesus, and I'm sort of rewriting the New Testament. But uh I got to go spend a boatload of time in Jerusalem. And I'm actually going to walk from Nazareth to Galilee down there because that's how you get to Jaytown, right? You got to walk. And so how am I supposed to I mean I took a car last time I drove from Nazareth, which is a very very steep village. I mean talk about top of the mountain that town um in a Christian town in Lebanon uh in Israel. And I'm going to be walking all over this place when I get uh to write this book. It's a very serious book as opposed to my last fiction which is rollicking hilarious that will likely be a movie. So we will move on from this today. If you are watching this on YouTube, you missed all the fun. You're watching a recording and please feel free to make your comments. I do go through the YouTube comments. I do respond to people. If you think this is great, share it with your friends. Hit the hearty heart uh button up there and please subscribe to Waja and Jacob if you haven't done so. If you're on YouTube, come over to Substack. Get a free subscription and subscribe to malcolmance.substack.com.
I need the followers. We've been hemorrhaging followers by people who unfortunately think this war is over with. And when it is over, we will happily shift to the morning global geopolitical cast. I've got loads of stuff to talk about in Europe, Ukraine, Cuba, Asia. I still have boatloads of Greenland stuff I have to talk about.
And believe me, I don't understand why that's still hot, but still hot. Waja, anything you'd like to say before we go to your show and I have to jump back on in 30 minutes?
>> Uh, no. Uh thank you so much for having me. I wish everyone a great happy pride month. Uh and uh hopefully this uh slows down. But uh again, we only have two 3 weeks left of oil reserves left according to Exxon Mobile. Uh as of last week, we probably have two weeks left.
And uh we're inching toward a very bad economic situation. So, brace yourself.
Uh, I wish that the media would be a little bit more realistic about our economic situation and realistic about the world economic stage. Uh, but unfortunately that's not the case.
>> Yeah. Well, in honor of my um my amazing coffee mug, I will play our outro music.
That might become the theme music for this show. All right, Wallace and Grommet, Curse of the Were Rabbit. Watch that film. It's freaking hilarious and it's way more entertaining for adults than Paddington Bear. All right. So, thank you for all coming. Go on to you uh Substack. That's where the questions are. I will be answering those questions. All right.
Okay. Take care. We will see you all tomorrow.
See you tomorrow. See you maybe in a minute.
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