The US government has escalated its pressure campaign against Cuba through a combination of legal actions, including the indictment of Raúl Castro based on a 1996 incident where Cuban fighter jets shot down civilian planes, and economic measures such as an oil blockade that has severely limited fuel imports to the island. This campaign represents an attempt to force the Cuban government to meet US demands, though analysts note that the Venezuela playbook may not work in Cuba due to the absence of strong civic society, opposition parties, and democratic infrastructure that existed in Venezuela.
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Why the U.S. Pressure Campaign on Cuba Is Now Targeting Raúl Castro | WSJ NewsAdded:
US prosecutors in Miami have announced that they are indicting Ro Castro, Fidel Castro's younger brother, who is one of the last surviving leaders of the Cuban Revolution.
>> If you kill Americans and we will pursue you, no matter who you are, no matter what title you hold, and in this case, no matter how much time has passed, >> they are trying to exert maximum pressure now in a legal sense in the latest move in a political and economic pressure campaign to force Cuba's government to give in to a series of demands.
The Trump administration's entire case has rested on Trump saying that this island off the coast of Florida presents an immediate and urgent and in his words extraordinary national security threat to the United States. Since January, the Trump administration has really ramped up economic pressure. They have instituted an oil blockade. They've cut off all Venezuelan fuel imports, which Cuba was really relying on. Since January, there's only been one delivery of fuel to the island, which was a Russian ship. and the US largely allowed it through because they realized how bad conditions were on the island. It's really testing the breaking point of the Cuban people and we started seeing some protests across the island as well.
Last week we also saw a really unusual visit from CIA director John Radcliffe who went to meet with his Cuban counterparts and the main message we're told was that Cuba really has a very limited window to make a deal with the US. It's a little unclear what would happen if they don't. Trump has hinted at some kind of military intervention.
But what Ratcliffe did is he mentioned Maduro a few times. He mentioned Venezuela both in terms of the raising the spectre of a potential military intervention, but really also that the US could bring a legal case against Cuba's leaders and try to take them out.
>> The United States and President Trump does not and will not forget its citizens.
>> It is quite striking that they're using a case from 1996 in order to bring these charges against Raul Castro. This is a 30-year-old case where Cuban fighter jets shot down two civilian airplanes by a Miami exile group. They killed three US citizens and one US permanent resident. And this incident has loomed large in Miami in the exile community for years. People say that Castro, who was the defense minister at the time, should face justice even though he's 94. And even though it's unlikely that they're actually going to ship him off to stand trial in the United States, they really want to make a big case about accountability.
It's clear that Trump really wants to repeat what he sees as the overwhelming success of his Venezuela operation in Cuba.
>> There won't be escalation. I don't think there needs to be. Look, the place is falling apart. It's a mess and uh they've sort of lost control. They've really lost control of Cuba. Speaking to even people inside of the administration, it's very obvious that the Venezuela playbook just isn't going to work in Cuba. There isn't somebody on the inside who is going to be willing to work with the Americans and have the rest of the government just go along with it. And on top of that, there isn't really much left on the island that would really lay the groundwork for elections or for a democracy that Trump officials say they want.
>> In Venezuela, at least there was very strong civic society. They were holding elections. There was an opposition party. Cuba has none of that. So, for now, it appears we're going to be in this holding pattern. The US accuses Cuba of starving its own people, of not accepting humanitarian aid. Cuba accuses the United States of doing the same through this oil embargo and other means. And in the meantime, the people are suffering. We're seeing increased protests, but no real indication of what the day after plan is going to look like, even if either side were to give way on their demands.
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