Seattle Has 88% More Homes for Sale Than Normal. Here's Why.

Añadido: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]economy.

[00:00:00]>> It's kind of interesting to look at because I can make an argument that the housing market is strong for some, weak for others.

[00:00:12]And I suppose it depends on the position that you're in.

[00:00:15]If you're looking for a home right now, if you're looking to invest in real estate, if you're looking to develop, you're probably seeing some really good opportunities.

[00:00:27]If you're someone who's trying to escape Washington state because you know you're the immediate income tax target, you're in a position where you're going to have to put your home on the market and you're going to be selling it way under what you paid.

[00:00:41]We are drowning in homes that no one right now is buying.

[00:00:46]And I mean drowning in homes.

[00:00:50]I saw Nick Gerli, he's a CEO of the Reventure app. It's a real estate app that looks at just like the raw data.

[00:00:59]And he's been tracking closely what's happening in Western Washington.

[00:01:05]And he says, "Look, this is good news if you're looking to buy, but if you're looking to sell, this is the worst possible thing for you."

[00:01:12]He called it a historic inventory shock.

[00:01:15]We've got active listings running at nearly double the normal level for this time of year.

[00:01:22]The housing market was already seeing some signs to be worried about, some stalling because of the capital gains taxes, because of the tech layoffs. We had told you that in the past.

[00:01:36]But then we got the new numbers.

[00:01:38]And the pressure is accelerating.

[00:01:41]Not because of some market anomaly.

[00:01:44]That's not what this is.

[00:01:46]This is the product of progressive policies chasing people out of the region that's been happening for a very long time on top of the tech layoffs.

[00:02:00]He said in his tweet and again, not to be too dramatic, but the numbers are really bad. He said, "Seattle's housing market is going through a historic inventory shock.

[00:02:11]There are now 8,630 listings across the Seattle metro as of April 2026.

[00:02:17]In a normal April, there are only 4,600 listings, meaning inventory today is 88% above normal.

[00:02:25]88%.

[00:02:28]And it's all happening in a time where no no one who's being honest can look at this and say, "Well, you know, I guess it happens. Anomalies happen." Which is true, right? That there are times in which you can't quite explain why something is what it is. It's just coincidental. I I'm I'm happy to admit that.

[00:02:48]But is that what's happening now?

[00:02:52]Cuz what what didn't we talk about the {quote} {unquote} anomaly last month and the month before that?

[00:02:57]At some point, it's now a pattern. It's not merely an anomaly.

[00:03:02]And when you have tech layoffs, which we've previously told you about impacting the market, the housing market, on top of the income tax that was just passed, on top of the people saying that they're leaving because of the income tax, seems like you can point some fingers or connect some dots.

[00:03:18]And there's certainly one finger that you can point towards the Democrats who are responsible for all of this.

[00:03:23]We're on camera, so I can't do it anymore. But if we didn't have a camera in the studio, I would do it right now.

[00:03:30]He said this is happening due to layoffs, a historical lack of affordability, and increased outbound migration. That means people are leaving.

[00:03:39]That means people are leaving. And last hour, and if you're watching this on YouTube, we'll have another video up explaining, but last hour we talked about Idaho gaining from Washington residents deciding to leave.

[00:03:51]It is clear as day. None of this should surprise anyone. And we've talked previously about the active listings in Seattle, specifically, not just going up, but the kinds of activity we're seeing in the market.

[00:04:03]What are the types of homes that are going up for sale? They're higher value homes. These are wealthier people who are choosing to leave.

[00:04:11]Or at least choosing to put their homes out on the market. And again, some of that we knew was going to come because of the tech layoffs.

[00:04:17]When you lose a bunch of people at Microsoft or Amazon or Meta or Google, when you throw in like the Starbucks executives who are going out of work, guess what happens?

[00:04:30]Well, they don't want to spend as much money here anymore. And these are jobs that paid really well.

[00:04:37]Some of them were renters, which is why you're going to start to see the rent start to dip a little bit. And I'm already seeing some more inventory in the market, just kind of casually looking around, at least my neighborhood, because I'm just mostly curious what's happening with the Seattle market as someone who lives in Seattle. And I live in South Lake Union, so I'm surrounded by Amazon people. I know people in my apartment complex who've lost their job.

[00:04:59]And I'm going to miss them leaving, the ones with the dogs that I like.

[00:05:04]There's a guy on my floor who's got an adorable Doberman. I love Dobermans. Oh, yeah. They're just so weirdly friendly for dogs that are >> look kind of menacing.

[00:05:12]>> They look like they're going to kill you, and they're like the nicest dogs in the world. I've never seen a Doberman that was even a little bit aggressive.

[00:05:20]I think they're only aggressive in movies or commercials or something. I've I've never seen an aggressive Doberman.

[00:05:25]And he gets a little like antsy around my dog, who just is too aggressive, I guess, for him. I'll I'll miss him, but I am kind of curious if he's got a two-bedroom apartment that I can move into.

[00:05:35]>> Well, you won't miss him. You'll miss the Doberman. Yes, I will miss only the Doberman. I don't even know the guy's name.

[00:05:40]I know the Doberman's name.

[00:05:42]But the the glimmer, I guess, of good news in all of this, if you want to call it that, and he Gurley, the the see I don't like it that his last name is Gurley.

[00:05:51]It makes me feel like I'm insulting him.

[00:05:53]That's his name, g e r l i.

[00:05:56]Gurley maybe?

[00:05:57]But he said ultimately good news for local Seattle buyers for the first time in a decade, you have control over this market. Expect prices to fall in the next year potentially by a lot in certain zip codes.

[00:06:08]And I am kind of curious about that. I I told you last year I was looking to purchase.

[00:06:14]I'd gone with Legacy Group Capital, wonderful sponsor in setting up uh getting ready for a mortgage. And I was looking around and I was like, "Eh."

[00:06:22]There was just something nagging at me not to make a move. And some of it was because I was looking at the market and it just seemed like it was starting to correct itself. And I didn't want to purchase a home right before the correction happens.

[00:06:39]Whereas I'm paying for something that I could have saved like a hundred thousand dollars on if I waited a year. Or I would be spending money on something that's no longer going to hold its value. Like a car the second that you purchase it and drive it off the lot it starts to go down in value cuz it's no longer new. I didn't want to have that happen immediately with the home.

[00:06:58]So I decided not to purchase anything and now I'm glad I did because if you know, you're not going to see the prices go down tomorrow. You're not going to see the prices go down really this month. But I I'm willing to bet unless something dramatic happens you're going to start to see some really good prices by the end of this year.

[00:07:17]And remember we're seeing right now 88% more on the market than we normally would in April.

[00:07:26]April homes usually aren't going up anywhere, right? I mean they're pretty stable and low. Once you get past into more closer into the spring and into the summer that's where the surge of the the homes start.

[00:07:39]That's going to drive prices down.

[00:07:42]And people are going to find out rather rather quickly, you know, listing your home for 1.3 million for a, you know, a 1,500 square foot condo is not going to cut it anymore.

[00:07:52]It's not going to cut it. And that's where you can start getting reasonable deals. I feel bad for the people selling unless they purchased it for, you know, pennies and now they're still making a killing off of it. It's just not as much. It's just not worth what it's been.

[00:08:06]Uh the affordability issue is still real.

[00:08:09]That's not going to go away anytime soon. You still have at the hyper local level the Seattle City Council hiking, you know, permit fees for development.

[00:08:16]So, that's still there.

[00:08:18]But, man, if I'm a developer, if I'm an investor, if I'm actively looking for a home, I'm feeling pretty good right now or at least the promise of something good. If I'm selling, I'm feeling awful.

[00:08:31]I like I'm I'm I'm worried.

[00:08:34]And I'm willing to bet you'll see a course correction of the course correction, meaning there's going to be some people who take their homes off the market and just stay in them for an extra year to ride this out.

[00:08:48]And again, we're talking about Western Washington. I have no idea what's going on on the east side of the state. I imagine they're dealing with their own corrections, especially as people are moving into Idaho.