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WAVE Weather Now Update 4/30/26 8:25PMAdded:
[music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Wave weather now. Hey everybody, it is Derby week and I am back. Ryan Hoke here with a Derby and Oaks forecast update.
We're going to look beyond that too into next week cuz the weather just doesn't stop at Derby, right? We're going to keep going past that there. We do have an alert day still for mid next week and we will go over some of these specifics, some particulars about that. We know a little bit more today, but we still don't know everything. All right, hopefully everybody had a fantastic Derby day. Cameron, our good friend, is in the room here this evening. Hello Cameron, good to see you.
Uh, we'll do another one of these tomorrow night about the same time by the way leading into Derby. We're making sure we're giving you an absolutely full service sort of regime here throughout Derby week cuz this is the two most important days of weather pretty much in Louisville for the year, both Oaks and Derby Friday and Saturday here. Folks are still just joining us here this evening with much calmer weather. We may not have as many folks in the room, but we'll still have a good conversation here. Of course, Shana is here from Jeffersonville. Hello Shana, good to see you in here this evening, good friend of ours here. And let's see, Cameron's asking will he be at the track tomorrow or Saturday? I will be there Saturday.
Tomorrow I am the designated survivor here at Wave and that designated survivor will be Carson on Saturday. So we get to trade off there and make sure that we keep the the everything running here at Wave throughout our Oaks and Derby coverage from the station. So we'll have a lot of technology out at the track as well to keep us all updated and update our weather app. The weather app will be updated through the day tomorrow and Saturday with those rain chance updates as we get them as we get the data in so that you can have that hand curated forecast for all your Oaks and Derby parties that you may be planning on having. All right, we've got the notification in on the Wave weather app.
That just hit my watch here. It should hit Wavey here in just a moment as well and we're going to get going here in just a moment's time. Hello to Carrie in Southeast Township, Indiana there in Orange County. Good to see you this evening. Look at that shot. These are the iconic twin spires of Churchill Downs here and they have quite the golden sunset behind them here. You just don't see a better shot than that this time of year. Thank goodness the weather's pretty calm, right? Joanne is here on YouTube. Hello Joanne, good to see you. Howdy to you as well here. I do want to go over the track conditions by the way cuz folks may be making some wagers for big races tomorrow and Saturday right now.
The track condition, the dirt is fast, the turf is firm most of the time by the way and you may see this during our Oaks and Derby coverage here tomorrow and Saturday with maybe a little factoid we can slip in there here. Most of the time the track is fast during the Kentucky Derby race looking back through the last 151 Kentucky Derby races. Hello Wavey.
Wavey of course has all of our Wave weather app alerts and will display those at the bottom of the screen here.
So now we know that everybody's got the notification, we can get off and rolling. But just so you know, the track right now, the dirt is fast, the turf is firm and that probably will not change between now and tomorrow.
Speaking of track conditions, that's often influenced or mostly influenced by rainfall or lack thereof and the rainfall has been sort of in the lack thereof category here for April. This will go down as one of the drier-ish Aprils that we've had in some time, but you'll see that at Louisville in today's drought monitor has improved a little bit and so has Southern Indiana because of all the gullywasher rain we got earlier this week. Now the drought monitor goes through Tuesday so it hasn't captured all of the rain that we got Wednesday morning. So this doesn't necessarily represent what is actually going on right now on the ground. There may be a slight improvement in some spots even more so than what you see here because of what happened Wednesday morning, but still regardless of that, Southern Kentucky's in a drought. That's not getting erased for some time here. You see that they are in kind of an extreme drought over toward they're in like Somerset, Kentucky just west of I-65 and then once again west of Bowling Green in that extreme drought right now. Yikes, even with all the rainfall, Bowling Green is still 8 in of rain behind for the year going from January 1st to now behind the average mark. Here in Louisville, we are still 4.35 in of rain behind average. This is typically our second wettest month of the year here, April, and we didn't live up to that. May is typically our wettest and if that doesn't live up to the standard either, then we will still continue with a drought or at least abnormally dry in a lot of spots. Again, Indiana in much better shape than Kentucky right now when it comes to the drought. We've got Angela Vanderburg in here this evening. Hello Angela, as well as Weather Geek 502 on YouTube, a frequent viewer. Good to see you in here this evening. Uh, let's talk temps.
Currently we are in the 50s and lower 60s. Today got up to 62 in Louisville.
If you like today's high temperature, you'll like tomorrow. It will be just as cool and just as nice, really. We will have a small shower chance in the morning and that shower chance is going to be powered by a cold front to our north and west. You see it there near Chicago.
You see those showers along the line?
Nothing severe, nothing expected to be severe. We just don't have the moisture in the air for that nor the heat energy for that matter. So we will see some of these little showers poking through our area as we head toward tomorrow morning with that cold front. So here's your Oaks forecast hour by hour for our Friday. You see that 20% rain chance 7:00, 8:00, 9:00 a.m. It's possible we could see a 30% for just like an hour or so, but we don't have that in there cuz it would just be so hard to pinpoint that. I think really 20% will be mostly what we see. By midday this is basically gone and the rain chance is completely out of here by the Oaks race which again we keep having to say it because some folks may not watch the live streams or the news right up until maybe the Oaks race itself. The Oaks post time has changed this year.
8:40 p.m. is when it will be much later than it has been in the recent past. So keep that in mind. Tell your friends, Wave and NBC the place to be for that post time at 8:40 p.m. for the Oaks.
So that rain chance goes down during the day on Oaks. By Derby day it goes back up again, but this time not in the morning, it's in the afternoon. This is a different setup we'll see. We'll still be cool, but this will be more of an afternoon shower chance of 20% light sprinkles, light showers possible here.
They'll be activated by the heating of the day even though it'll be cool, the sun hitting the atmosphere and making it somewhat unstable, just a little bit, maybe just enough to kick up a few of those isolated showers. Again, isolated, 20%. These are very small shower chances, very small wording here. You might be able to get away without a poncho during Derby day. I think most folks will, which is good. I think we'll be in pretty good shape here.
But Derby day morning this isn't going to be fun. I'm planning to wear long johns underneath my pants Derby day morning as I'll be out there at the track, you know, pretty early in the morning there and temperatures during that low temperature time of day even earlier around say 7:00 a.m. will be around 39 to 40 degrees on Derby morning.
You'll see [music] on today's Hokey Weather Fact that we've only had 13 other times where the Derby day morning low has been 40 degrees or lower.
One of those I believe was 2017. That's the last time we've done that. And then of course you go back to 1989, we did it then as well. And then of course 11 other times other than the two that I've mentioned that are notables uh the recent past here. So 40 or lower on Derby morning, uh it's not very common around here.
It's all because of this a trough of cool air that's over Hudson Bay, Canada, that's going to be getting reinforced by that cold front tomorrow morning, and we'll really feel the effects of said front by Derby morning as the cool air really has some time to percolate and sit over us here. The problem is there's going to be what we call in meteorology a little vort moving through. It's basically like a little spin or disturbance in the atmosphere um in the 500 millibar level, around 32,000 ft or so. That will be pivoting through, and as it does so, it won't have a whole lot of moisture to work with. That's why this rain chance really can't get much higher than 20%. It has like a theoretical limit here, just because there's not a ton of moisture, but there is enough to squeeze out a few light showers, perhaps uh Derby day afternoon.
Again, 20% rain chance, powered by the sun, powered by uh this little vort or area of low pressure moving through, if you will, here. And um it'll be a cool day with some sun to begin with, and then a bit more cloud cover and some, you know, a breeze, basically, uh during that afternoon time frame here.
This is what you need to know overall.
High temperature 59° on Derby day, post time 6:57. There's that 20% rain chance.
This is it hour by hour here. We'll still be in the lower 50s by noon time.
If you're outside, even if you're not going to Churchill Downs, cuz I know a lot of folks don't. It's It's just basically you're going to a Derby party uh somewhere in Louisville or your hometown here uh or maybe you're just out and about. Maybe you don't have anything to do with the Derby here on Saturday. Regardless, you'll need to dress warmly for the early part of the day. And then the latter part of the day, you might be able to take, you know, that layer off or two that you've got. Dress in layers, that's a good idea here. But you'll still need to have long sleeves and long pants through most of the afternoon, most likely, as we only get to 59°, and you know, 59° is cool for Derby day here. I'll leave this up for a minute and get to some of your questions here.
Uh good evening, everybody. Uh drought update. We just did a drought update at the very beginning. You'll see this video on YouTube. Um not much change. Again, Louisville, southern Indiana has slight improvement.
Kentucky got worse in some places, believe it or not, but it didn't encompass the whole um rain that we had this week, cuz we had some rain Wednesday morning after that sampling took place for the drought outlook there. Uh lots of rain next week. We do have some pretty decent rain chances next week we're going to talk about here in just a minute. Brian said this morning he's less worried about drought with the amount of rain coming next week. Yes, but with that said, it's not a guarantee that we'll see a ton a ton a ton of rain, right? The system this this outlook is still evolving. But yes, there is potential for some pretty decent rain that will help.
That will help. That's a good thing.
Uh let's see what else we have here.
That's about it. You guys are quiet tonight. Weather's quiet, and so are you guys, all right? Well, let's get into it here with uh a a quick promotional thing. You know, this is Wave Weather Now. It's our 24/7 weather live stream. If you're watching us on social media, this isn't the 24/7 part of it. To get the 24/7 live stream, you have to go to our Wave Weather app or the Wave Now app and tap on the second live stream, which is Wave Weather Now. If you're on the weather app, it's just tap to see live, you know, tap for live video. That's easy.
Uh watch live, I think is exactly what it's called. But every few minutes, we run that Derby week outlook. Has all of our hourly forecast, the rain chances as we put them in the system, it gets updated on Wave Weather Now. So, that makes it easy to keep up with your Derby festivity planning here. So, let's go beyond Derby.
This is not fun. This is Sunday morning.
Even cooler than Derby morning is Sunday morning with pretty decent frost potential in some sheltered rural spots outside the city. I think most of Louisville is immune from this, aside from maybe extreme east and southwest Louisville may get a little bit of frost potential here. And that is something that you know, we we can deal with this time of year. That's why we always say, "Plant your vegetable garden after Mother's Day." or "Plant your vegetable garden after Derby." I'm going to be doing it this coming Sunday after this little uh potential here. You see Wavey at the bottom of the screen with the uh climate report for the day, giving us the highs, lows, rainfall, etc. for each of the climate sites in the uh Louisville county warning area for the National Weather Service, Lexington, Frankfort, Bowling Green, Louisville, and Bowman Field there.
Bradley Clark's asking, "Any severe threats Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week?" That's a fantastic way to segue into what we're getting ready to talk about. We do have a few storms that'll try to move through on Monday. I don't think those will be a big deal.
The bigger deal is what happens with this alert day, and it says Wednesday.
So, we have the alert day on Wednesday for now. Some of the data today came in a lot earlier with this, basically a Tuesday night situation.
We'll see if that sticks. We're going to give it another day before we start moving alert days around, but for now, we're going to say at least potentially early Wednesday morning, this could be the setup here. Watching a cold front pressing through with the potential for strong to severe storms. Is this a guarantee? No. This is basically just flagging this period, Wednesday and potentially Tuesday, for severe storms with this front moving through. This can change. The severe weather threat may also not hit our counties. We'll see. It's hard to say this distance out if that will exactly happen, but what we know is from pattern recognition. And the reason we flagged this is we know this type of pattern can produce severe weather with a front moving through like this and two parts of the jet stream coming together over us, phasing, if you will, giving us the wind shear that's needed for severe weather. So, if the wind shear is there, which isn't super hard to come by this time of year, what about the heat energy and the moisture for severe weather?
That may be tougher. And here's why.
This is the raw output from the European model here. Notice 4:00 p.m. Tuesday, it's already got some rain moving through, and it's not severe. So, it comes through with an early day round of rain, almost like what we just had happen here with an early day wave of rain, and then sort of a disruption to the late evening round of storms. You see that red doesn't really build back in that cape, that instability, that, you know, sort of energy, that fuel for thunderstorms. It's not allowed to build in very much because of that prior round of rain. Now, this is just one idea of what may happen early next week, Tuesday into early Wednesday.
We'll see if that transpires. This will change a few times between now and then, but seeing that idea on the maps leads me to believe that the severe weather risk in this particular run of the data would be confined to areas sort of south of us and west of us, and then east the next day, as you see here, as it tries to ramp back up over the mid-Atlantic states. Could we get gapped like that?
We would still have some stronger storms, by the way, but it just wouldn't be the rock-'em sock-'em robot sort of uh severe weather. We'll see. That is very possible. That the funny part about weather patterns like this is they're never the exact same, but they often rhyme. And if our last system is any sort of explanation to us here, you know, the maximum severe being out west, the um potential for morning rain or at least early afternoon rain that disrupts things from from being as severe, it could happen again. We'll see. You know, that severe weather event for us still had tornadoes and wind damage, and it was bad in a lot of places with power outages, too. So, this is not to discount that. It's just to say, "What about a severe weather outbreak?" Well, cool your jets on that. Don't think we're in that territory right now. And if you look at the AI data, this is for Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday at the top, Wednesday at the bottom here. In fact, I'll take this full screen so you can see it uh with a bit better definition here on your screen, and I'll circle a few things here, if I can read them.
>> [laughter] >> Always a small screen to try to take care of this here. Uh this is again Tuesday, and it has the maximum severe weather risk out to our west here. I circled that in magenta.
It really doesn't have Louisville in there. In fact, funny enough, just like the Euro, has this little tiny gap right here. Funny how that works, right?
Huh.
We'll see. SPC, by the way, has nothing yet, because it's too early and too uncertain. Uh you'll see that the analog data from the St. Louis University here has, you know, that maximum severe threat out to our west again for Tuesday, Oklahoma, Arkansas. And then by Wednesday, tries to spread it across parts of the deep south, perhaps. And oh, look at here. Funny enough, um the uh you know, the AI data here, this machine learning uh program, MLP here, also has that across the deep south with like a 5% risk, that lowest level, trying to move into Kentucky and our counties within Kentucky.
So, food for thought. No guarantees here, but uh again, we flagged that alert day because of pattern recognition, just to tell you that, "Hey, we see something might be interesting."
AI data yesterday saw this even less than it does today. It's kind of funny that it's starting to key in on it after our alert day. You know, it took about a day for it to start to spin up on this system, whereas we could see by pattern recognition that, you know, "Hey, this is something we might have to watch here." So, very much it is a pattern to watch, as they say, this Tuesday/Wednesday situation. Let's get to a few questions, then I'll go on to sort of the cool side of that system, and then we'll wrap this up. We're not going to be on here super super long this evening uh just because the weather's so calm and it's so nice outside.
Uh let's see here. Andre, my buddy from high school here, I have a question for you. I have a Special Olympics track and field meet next weekend. Is it going to be cold or rainy? We'll talk about that here in a second. There is the potential for a little rain. The cold part, maybe not so much, but that's still subject to change.
Uh how much of May is trending below normal temps? watching from Jamestown, Kentucky near Lake Cumberland. You know, I think the first half of May could certainly be kind of a cooler one. I think we'll see a lot of those 60s and 70s, not so many 80s. Maybe we'll try to recover back into the 80s for at least the second half of May. Brian Good was whispering in my ear today looking at some super long-range data he likes to look at that we may still have this kind of pattern where cool air is trying to intrude even into early June times.
We'll see.
Hard to say, hard to read the tea leaves on that. We're going from this you know, La Niña that we had over the winter into an El Niño, at least maybe a moderate one, as we head toward the summer. I know you saw all those super El Niño things, but we'll see what actually happens there. It may just be a normal El Niño.
You know how social media is, you take the one little chance for something and you go blow it out of proportion. Maybe there's a strong El Niño, we'll see. If that happens, that would actually lead to a drier scenario for us, perhaps.
Basically, we've seen that over the past, you know, late summers with El Niños that are moderate to strong, that can be a little bit drier than average for us and thus a little hotter than average. We'll see. It's iffy, all right?
Sherry says, "Thanks for keeping us in the loop." You're very welcome. Bradley Clark says, "Is it supposed to be any more severe threats for May after Tuesday, Wednesday?" And to be frank, I haven't looked past that because we are still trying to resolve Tuesday, Wednesday and to be able to figure out what happens after that, we got to get this one down first, right? I will say our severe weather maximum time of year is April through June. So, you know, this is we're kind of right in the middle of it. And to be brutally honest with you, despite the severe weather we had earlier this week, it could have been a lot worse. I mean, we had a lot worse this time last year. Remember April 2nd of last year? Yikes. This year has not been as bad despite having some tornadoes and definitely some damage and power outages. We've done a lot worse in the past. This is I I hate to say it, but this is close to average, all right, for severe weather.
Maybe maybe just a touch below average, we'll see. Hard to qualify and quantify that just because you know, we've got 34 counties that we serve here.
All right, so enough about the severe weather chance for next week. We've gone over that in as much detail as we can right now. There is this extreme low temp risk starting on May 8th. This is heading into Mother's Day weekend.
That's not this weekend, but two weekends from now. It encompasses much of the Great Lakes region and the Ohio Valley and parts of the lower Ohio Valley, including here in Louisville.
It's a medium risk of extremely low temperatures for this time of year. This doesn't mean snow. It just means that for this time of year, compared to climatology, you know, an extremely low temperature for this time of year is possible. This would be a primarily like Thursday, Friday of next week that we'd be most, you know, keen on looking at this, maybe into early Saturday and then we may start to recover by Mother's Day itself. Speaking of Mother's Day, this is our current outlook here. You see 75°, 20% shower chance. We'll see how that shower chance works out here.
Bradley saying, "Love Ryan and the Wave Storm Tracking Team answering your questions, trying to make people feel comfortable any time of weather." We appreciate that, Bradley. You guys are awesome for watching. We really do appreciate your viewership here. We know there's a lot of different things you could be watching on YouTube or Facebook or, you know, wherever you may find your live streams here that we put this out on, but we appreciate you watching us.
We are local meteorologists based here in Louisville, putting our heart and soul into this, our forecast, our graphics, our products that we put out to give you guys the latest on what you need to know and to keep you safe because my family lives here, too. Got to keep them safe, got to keep you safe. That is our job. All right, we're going to wrap things up here with the 10-day earliest alert. If you've got any more questions, concerns, comments, put them in here cuz this is what they call last call here at the Wave Weather Bar, as it were. I'll call it the isobar.
Um weather joke, really bad one. You see the alert day there for Wednesday.
Again, that could migrate itself to Tuesday. We're starting that process of of ramping up Tuesday's storm chance here. May have to migrate it over. We'll see how that goes.
Otherwise, after that, we've got that that cool air for Thursday and Friday of next week. Holy smoke. Showers, temperatures in the lower 60s, overnight lows in the 40s. It is conceivable you may need to run your furnace in the first week of May.
>> [snorts] >> Which I haven't done in a while. My furnace right now is in heat mode. My air system's in heat mode, which is kind of crazy heading into Derby. You know, we can have some cool ones, but boy, we've used so much air conditioning this year. Now we're going back to heat. I was looking at my electric bill. It came in today from LG&E. It was interesting to see the amount of electricity used was higher this April compared to last April and the amount of gas was also a little bit lower. So, overall, it's been warmer, but we've still had to use the furnace here at times in the month of April. I was like looking at that cuz it kind of tells you the weather story by how, me just personally, anecdotally, how I've had to heat or cool my house based on that, which is kind of fun here. You see alert days for both Tuesday and Wednesday. I think it would be one of those.
We'll see. It It could also be a bridge situation where it'd be like late Tuesday, early Wednesday where you see kind of like half of those days kind of assembled with alert days. We'll see how that goes. We need to give it the overnight data. We want to see the 0Z data late this evening for the European model, especially, before we start changing things around here, all right?
Let's see. As long as we're talking as we're not talking about 30s and 40s. I had to bring out the winter coat today. Yeah, those 30s and 40s Saturday morning and Sunday morning are no joke here.
You'll have to wear a coat if you're heading out and about in the mornings.
Then by the afternoons, you know, on Saturday, still cool in the upper 50s. By Sunday, it'll feel pretty good. We'll be at 68 in the afternoon. If you have any sort of outdoor plans that you're trying to decide on a day on for this weekend, Sunday is your day. So, keep that in mind.
Something that's that's fun just to compare years again. I love comparing, you know, this year to last year is you know, a friend of mine, hello friend. My friend typically has a Derby party and she likes to have her swimming pool open for Derby every year at her place. And the problem is is that, you know, it's typically a little early in the year for that, but last year she was able to have it open and it was a lot of fun. This year, no swimming pool. Not with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s. So, again, I like comparing years over years there.
Who is the thermostat changer in your house, you or your spouse? asks Shonda.
It is me. It's a smart thermostat and I'm like the smart home guy in my house, so I I change the thermostat, but of course, my spouse has the ability and the power to go up to that thing and manually change it and they have the app, too, so.
But it's just we have departments in my house and my department happens to be all the smart home stuff, except for the appliances. The kitchen appliances, that that is on my spouse's phone, not on my phone, just because my spouse likes to cook a lot more than I do, so.
The appliance apps go on that phone and not so much mine.
Bradley says, "I'll leave you alone with the questions. Have a good night." I appreciate it, Bradley.
Let's see here. "Last year I was swimming in my pond already," says Carrie in Southeast Township, Indiana there in Orange County. "This year I was only went in once a couple weeks ago."
Yeah, I mean, we we've gotten to what, 89 so far this year? I mean, we've been super warm. It was crazy. March was crazy warm. April was crazy warm, too.
But now that May is starting to come around, weather's like, "How about some troughs in the east? How about cooling you down?" That's kind of where we're at right now. So, boo for Derby, right, on that cool air, but it's better than being hot. I'll say that cuz we've been through some hot Derbys and that's no fun when you're wearing something like this and you're doing this all day, waving your suit jacket around trying to keep cool.
Let's see. Shonda says, "That was funny." I appreciate you, Shonda, and your your excellent questions that may be only slightly related to weather here at times, which is what we like to do.
It's not all just about weather, it can be fun stuff, too, on these live streams, as you'll often see with me and Kevin. Sometimes we like to clown around a little bit.
Just when the weather's good, we have the ability to do that and that can be a lot of fun. Fun for you guys, too.
Last question, but are we getting a live tomorrow? Yes, tomorrow is Oaks Day. I am here. I'm actually my shift is late tomorrow. I'm working the 11:00 p.m.
newscast, but I think I'll be able to be on here at about the same time, sometime around 8:30-ish, 8:35.
I plan on doing a live tomorrow. That timing, again, around 8:30. That could float a little bit. We'll see how things go. It's interesting with this 8:40 post time.
I'm just now saying this out loud and realizing this out loud. This again, this is our first time going through this with a later Oaks post time.
Um How about a live closer to 9:15 tomorrow? I'm just now thinking of that.
We'll also be in our Galas coverage, too. Hmm.
I haven't thought about this cuz usually I just do all of these at like 8:30, so cuz the Oaks post time is at 8:40. I'm not doing this in the middle of the Kentucky Oaks. That's not happening.
Cuz nobody's going to want to watch it and I'm not going to want to do it because I want to see the Oaks race, right?
Um We'll see what we can do here. Um and and the presence of this room being open, too, is also a limiting factor.
So, stand by on that. It It could be you'll get the notification. Just have the Wave Weather app. It could be as early as 9:15.
We'll see if we can make that happen.
We'll be in our galas special on TV. I they may need this room for that. So, I don't know. If that's the case, um we'll see what we can do.
We'll be in the middle of our Oaks coverage, by the way, um tomorrow all the way until about uh 7:30, 8:00.
So, I may try to squeeze it in. If not, you know, around 9:15, I may try to do a pre-11:00 one around 10-ish, if possible. And just know that it will likely be late tomorrow. And there's a small chance if during our Oaks coverage, if this room isn't being used, um I might be able to do it earlier, but let's plan on this being late. If you're an If you're a night owl, this will be for you. Hopefully around 9:05, 9:15 tomorrow. Could be later. And if we're super lucky, it might be earlier. So, we'll figure that out tomorrow. I have to kind of shoehorn these live hits in in between our news and um their needs for this this room that I'm in here. And of course, uh all the Oaks coverage that may also transpire from this room. I think they do have some live hits uh in front of this big wall behind me. So, we'll get that figured out. Um thank you for asking that question there. Are you um on uh YouTube? Cuz I did not think about that until just now cuz this is our first year doing Oaks coverage all the way through the 9:00 hour here on TV. So, we'll see how that goes. All right, guys. I'm Wave 3 Meteorologist Ryan Hoke. Thank you so much for joining me this evening, and I will see you at some point tomorrow evening back here on Wave Weather Now when I get a chance.
Have a good night, everybody, and have a good night.
>> [music] [music] [music]
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