the most asymmetric bet in history

[00:00:00]Hello everyone and welcome back to the world's best investing podcast. As many of you know, I'm an early investor in AMD, $4.2 per share. That's when I got in. Same with Palanteer, $7 per share.

[00:00:10]Roughly, these two investment ideas are different, slightly different expressions of the same core investment thesis, which is more compute, will eventually translate into more intelligence. And the moment the correlation, the actual causal chain between intelligence and profits is clear and scales, which is what we're seeing now with AI, that's going to translate into big businesses that grow exponentially. That's what we're seeing with AMD's free cash flow per share and Palanteer's free cash flow per share, which is growing exponentially. The question is, of course, what's next?

[00:00:39]What's coming next? My next gig of thesis for the next 10 years is effectively the immune system. compute applied to understanding biology, being able to read and write the biological code to radically extend human health spans. Three curves are coming together simultaneously that now make this a reality. This is no longer science fiction. This is happening now. Firstly, the ability to read biology is rising exponentially all the way from the proteomic level down to the epigenetic and genetic levels. So really understanding the core factory, the core process in the body that enables us to exist and function that's happening already. The cost of that is going to zero. Effectively the cost of sequencing an entire human genome in the year 2000 was $und00 million. In February 2026, it just came in at $100. So you bet in five minutes time probably you're going to get paid to have your genetic code sequenced. It's going to the Unity economics now enable this thing to scale. Secondly, that produces a lot of data. So even if we wanted to just three years ago, we couldn't have possibly made sense of all of that data. It would have yielded some insights, but not the kind of predictive AIdriven medicine that I think is going to transform the economy and human life itself. This is made possible by AI. Remember that I think it was this winter, I almost forgot now, it was very cool to come out as a technical person and say, "Hey, AI doesn't work anymore." And the truth is that AI is now that the AI scaling laws are not only persisting, they're accelerating. And so our ability to make sense of complex and vast biological data sets is rising exponentially. And then thirdly, our ability to write the biological code and therefore make edits as an AI could predictively suggest. So in a predictive fashion. So an AI basically tells you, hey, you should do this to avoid um your biology deteriorating in this way. Our ability to do that is now quite good. You've heard about peptides. You've heard about epigenetic tuning with Yamanaka factors.

[00:02:39]You've heard about genetic editing, which is a big deal. And you actually see new hypothetical genetic editing um u methods that are being triled and so forth. All of that is rising exponentially. So these three curves collapse together basically produce what I think Ray Kurtzfile has been saying for I think a decade plus now that we're about to reach longevity escape velocity. Now my view is that a foundation for that is actually the immune system because generally per my understanding of biology and of course I'm not a licensed professional. So please whatever I say do not interpret it as medical advice. It's not meant to be such not meant to be interpreted as such. So always consult a licensed physician. But the point is my view of biology is that human biology when there's a pathogen that shouldn't be there like a virus bacteria or something of the sort other toxins the biology goes south and what you start to see is proteomic dysfunction. So the proteium I've said this many times but it's just a giant Lego puzzle. We've all played Lego when we were kids and basically Legos of a specific shape will bind onto other Legos with the inverse shape. The prote is very much like that. So cells use energy to print proteins and then the proteins go and do things in the body because of its specific function.

[00:03:52]All of that is just data and it's code and our ability to map that and understand it and then write back into that code is now about to come out of nowhere and become something that scales and that can be done quite cheaply. So the immune system is very much a part of that. The immune system is just a proteomic codebase within that larger codebase. So our ability to modulate it, reboot it, direct it towards specific pathogens, all of that is actually right now very good. And there's a lot of companies building drugs and solutions which are being triled, which to me on a first principles basis make a lot of sense. And so today I prepared an indepth presentation to explain an ecosystem that I see forming in the immune system side of things. It doesn't mean that I will limit myself to the immune system side of this bio accelerationist revolution, but it does mean I think it's going to be a foundational pillar. It's hard to predict whether a specific drug will will work or not. So actually what I'm doing here is focusing on platforms as we will see now. And remember it's about these three curves. It's reading the biological code, understanding it and writing. So today I bring you a presentation which brings together three companies basically uh Nilus biotechnology which is a company that does proteomic assay so it understands it increasingly understands what's happening at the proteomic level when it has the chance to access an organism. Um then secondly immunity bio which has produced an in 15 super agonist interlucan 15 is a you would say it's a it's a liant that binds onto receptors on macrofasages and other immune cells and instructs them to reboot become toxic again and kill the bad guys and then MIC therapeutics has built a solution based on INKTS which stands for invariant natural killer tea cells and this is just an alternative way perhaps even complimentary to um immunity community bios into lucin 15 to reboot and weaponize the immune system. This is a basket I'm looking at. there is some meaningful odds that this basket ends up being a multi-t trillion dollar market cap in aggregate worth basket in 1015 years time because there's a bunch of factors that I think are going to make this quite urgent in the short term you know in terms of we're going to need to reboot many immune systems worldwide in the coming few years and then long term it's foundational whichever way you look at it because if we're going to extend human lifespans you need a rejuvenated immune system and a weaponized one against specific bad guys. So this is a basket I'm looking at now. It's not the definitive one. As many of you know, I am long immunity bio and actually today I did buy more shares, but the rest is you know this is something I'm building on the go. It's um the first part of my life as a public investor has been about making picks in public and that has to a large degree involved building mental models in public. But with biology, we're starting with building a mental model in public first and some, you know, a small investment in immunity bio, which is a micro one, but the asymmetric potential of it is so vast to me that uh I'm willing to to play that and go to zero. So, it's a different riskreward scenario to anything I've done previously like Palanteer, AMD, Himolingo, stuff like that. This is different, but I do think that over the coming decades, this is going to become a predominant chunk of the economy. So today the hotness in the economy is it compute AI network stuff like that. I think a lot of that is going to get um not commoditized but I think it's going to be relatively quite a bit smaller than the biology chunk of the economy which is now starting to to um to gear up for scale. So let's go. I prepared the presentation for you. All right. So I think we are entering an immune system super cycle which is about reading what's happening in the body. That includes detecting speci specific pathogens, understanding what immune cells are working, which ones are not, reboosting the immune system and then weaponizing it. In my view, chronic disease, I mean, not in my view, certifiably, it does evolve involve immune dysfunction and failure. So, this is something that um science has proven it makes a lot of sense, right? Because if you don't have an immune system, you can't defend yourself against the things that want to harm you or are maybe just, you know, they they harm you because of whatever evolutionary reason. But the point is cancers, infections, autoimmunity, aging, a lot of that um immune decline is just central to it. So is 15 tends to restart the engine. I'm just going by the latest research shared by immunity bio. Okay? So I'm not making any specific claims about any drug or anything but it seems broadly according to them that IL15 does durably reboot immune systems and it does tend to extend the life of patients that are dealing with final conditions that we previously believed were to be incurable. So, you know, they still are to some extent, but the point is 15 binds onto receptors on macrofasages mechanistically on a first principles basis, tells them to reboot, tells them to go cytotoxic again, which means they should go on a killing spree. And then when macrofasages become active again and proliferate and stuff like that that seems to kickstart a flywheel whereby they produce IL15 agonists themselves and that goes out into other immune cells um and tells them to activate too. So this is a flywheel of sorts and to me the reason I like this company is it seems foundational. So, as I was saying, it's hard to predict exactly what molecule will become a blockbuster drug if you're looking at endpoint solutions, but if you're looking at a platform, something that's fundamental, horizontal in in the hierarchy of the body, which is the immune system, is 15 seems to me like a very viable way to go. There will be others, but I think this will be a primary one just because interucan 15 is the primary mechanism the body uses to reboot, coordinate, orchestrate, and um kill the bad guys. Now, Nilla's biotechnology, and by the way, I have deep dives in all of these companies in the blog for free, so you can check them out. I go into a lot of detail, and we'll be doing that in the videos, but Nilus basically reads the code. So, I've I've talked many times about the protein being a a Lego puzzle and all that. And the point is, if you can read exactly what's happening in the body, one of the things you read is exactly what pathogens are there that shouldn't be there, and you do so at the proteomic level. Meaning if for example you're able to reboot the immune system and you can jack up T- cell and natural killer cell counts and their activity, those cells would hypothetically be naive.

[00:10:11]They don't really know what they should be heading towards. The body has mechanisms for that. But if we're dealing with a fundamentally broken immune system, you can actually engineer these cells to target specific bad guys.

[00:10:22]But first, you need to understand what are the bad guys in the body that shouldn't be there. And for example, how do you bind onto them proteomically? So you can actually engineer T- cells, natural natural killer cells, even inkt cells which I covered in the mink deep dive and instruct them to go and target something that has a specific proteomic signature. The way you do that is you engineer a receptor on the surface of these cells which has the inverse shape to whatever shape you may find in the surface of one of the bad guys. And so just blinds like Lego and then the T- cell, natural killer cell, INKT cell, whatever other immune system uh cell you want to engineer proceeds to kill that.

[00:11:01]So you locate the dysfunction with this thing and you sequence the targets and that's how um you're able to point the weapon with Nilus' read. So you read with Nilus and then maybe you want to engineer a natural killer cell which immunity bio happens to do using the immunity bio platform. And then we'll see now exactly how this extends to mink therapeutics and stuff. But the point is you can kill specific things and while you reboot the immune system to me this is you know you look at platforms in the past like trains, electricity, the internet. The immune system to me is going to be one of them because to you as a human none of these platforms mean anything if if your immune system goes to zero. And that's something that um I think it's going to be increasingly prevalent for a number of factors. And um you know put it this way if people are going to live longer this is going to be a choke point basically and it's going to be important. So make therapeutics invariant natural killer tea cells are important and I cover them in the deep dive because te- cells are part of the adaptive immune system. They generate specific antibodies because they recognize the bad guys read them memorize them learn to produce specific antibodies which means you know they learn to target specific proteomic signatures that um are specific to the bad guys. Natural killer cells are somewhat more blunt and indiscriminate.

[00:12:18]So they kill things as soon as they think something is bad. But the point is in in chronic illness, these two branches of the immune system often go to near zero or practically zero. So they get tired and it's hard to reboot them. Sometimes you can't actually reboot them in extreme cases as we've seen with some notorious patients over the past year. And it would seem that INKTs are actually a way to do that because fundamentally invariant natural killer tea cells go after a completely different language scape. So T- cells specifically react to the peptide MHC major hystocompatibility complex meaning they they recognize peptides that shouldn't be there and then create the antibodies to bind onto those peptides.

[00:13:02]So the T- cell then goes and does its thing. However, if that system is dead, no matter how much you reboot it or whatever, the patient's not going to do well. But in very natural killer, tea cells go after lipids. Lipids are primary components of both human um molecules, cells, whatever, and then the pathogens too. And what happens is that lipids are actually much more foundational and core to the structure of for example a pathogen. So it doesn't evolve, it doesn't mutate as fast. And so these are very hard to change for the pathogen in question. Meaning for example a tumor likes to hide the um uh the MHC complex that I was talking about which is basically like an elevator that brings up to the surface of the cell peptides of whatever thing shouldn't actually be in the cell. So it helps tea cells recognize when a T when a cell is compromised uh you know if infected by a pathogen or if it's a tumor cell or whatever. Tumor cells like to hide the MHC complex. So then T- cells can't really work because the MHC complex doesn't present the peptides and T- cells can't work. However, lipids are different. Lipids are foundational to the structure of the bad guys and they don't really change as fast. So INKTs are a third branch of the immune system that in my view are fundamentally undervalued. This is why I believe tentatively ink um main therapeutics is evolving into a platform which could be revolutionary because here's the thing tea cells recognize specific things, right? So when you do allergenic tea cells, which means you take tea cells out of someone's body, engineer them, and then put them into someone else's body, if the T- cell recognizes a peptide that it it doesn't identify a self, which it may do because we vary in terms of peptides, perhaps slightly from human to human, but enough for a T- cell to recognize. That's where the T- cell toxicity comes in. And so you've heard about CARTT therapy side effects being too much. Apparently, INKTs do not present that toxicity profile. And so actually one of my followers whom I followed back so I thought he was brilliant pointed out the other good thing about INKTS is not only lower toxicity but the lower toxicity itself enables higher scale at lower cost because it's just not that big a deal to inject someone with INKTS on a first principles basis. Right? I'm not making any medical claims. I'm just studying this on a first principles basis. So this is complimentary because if you can identify the bad guys with Nila's biotech, you can reboot the immune system generally to whatever degree with 15. Maybe on top of that you can use immunity bios platform to do car which is basically like CARTT but engineering the surface of whatever's on a natural killer cell to kill a specific bad thing. You can also do a DNA vaccine which is just another way of presenting antigen so protein fragments to the tea cells. So after they've been rebooted with IL15, they go and kill the bad guy.

[00:15:50]But anyways, this would be at the very least complimentary because you're working on an alternative path. It's not the peptide MHC complex, it's lipids. So you're recognizing a completely different signature scape and also it's a third alternative to reboot the immune system because apparently INKTs do something similar to macrofasages when IL15 agonists bind to the receptor in that they coordinate an immune reboot and it seems to be lasting and widespread meaning that inkts also help to reboot um T- cells natural killer cells dendritic cells which are found in mucosal membrane so like lung lung lungs for example and what they do is they present the antigens that I talked about to tea cells. So this is all highly complimentary and this is the sort of thing that you know biology typically has been very high risk because you're dealing with things with you know you have an obscure biotech company working on a specific narrow solution. This is actually a platform. We're not talking about any specific illness. We're talking about something that scales to the whole body because the immune system has properties beyond just killing bad guys. It has anti-inflammatory tissue restorative properties which are actually quite they're an interesting property of INKTS because INKTs can kill the bad guys but they can also simultaneously de uh reduce inflammation in the tissue and just produce conditions that are favorable to tissue repair. So this is to me the term is not a disease it's the entire protein and this is very big because you know if you go back to consumer preferences yes the internet is important yes AI is important yes holidays are important but if your immune system goes to zero none of that matters and so I think this is going to be a much much bigger business. So the summary of this is you know we talked about these three curves which is reading processing the information we read and then writing code back and this is very much it about processing information that's going to be networks based so there's going to be a network or a collection of them that harvest most of the biometric data proteomic epigenetic genetic cellular level organ level all of that there's going to be a bunch of networks that process and store most of that information and they're just going to dump that into an AI that's going to be able to correlate and it's going to be able to tell us what we should do to optimize our health. But the point is this basket here is interesting and it's worth watching for two reasons. One, hypothetically, they could turn into good investments. I do believe immunity bio is um you know it's it's the combination of a world-class founder with a massive town with something that's very hard to replicate with something I believe there's going to be a massive and urgent demand for in at the very least in the coming two to three years. So I like that. But the other two companies in my opinion are tentatively moving towards inflection points that could be 12 18 months away.

[00:18:38]So I think that now is actually biotech prime time because as I said we're moving from this highly explosive environment in which people are working on obscure vertical end solutions to a point where we're going to see platforms emerge and it's going to be really important because it's about extended human health stats. All right guys, so that's it for today. Thank you very much for joining me. I've updated my course with a biology module. All right, guys.

[00:19:02]Thank you very much for joining me today. I've updated my course with a biology module which contains a first principles framework to understand all of this. I continue to do deep dives on these companies and I will do so probably faster and faster over time, but I want to provide everyone with the first principles framework to understand biology. That's another thing I'm doing in the course right now. It's included in everyone's original purchase. So if you happen to buy the course already, it's included for you available in English and Spanish. And if you don't want to do that, you can just read my upcoming deep dives. I have recussion pharmaceuticals dropping this week. You can read my immunity biio deep dive.

[00:19:37]Nilus biotechnology. Mech therapeutics.

[00:19:40]HMS of course I think is going to be a big player in this space could become actually is right now the biggest D2C healthcare platform at the moment. So the whole Costco for biomarkers thing is very much materializing on that side. So um you know biology going big and hard into this. Over the past 5 years what's changed my life is going big into AI compute networks. I think this is the next big wild west type wealth creation event. And uh I'm working very hard to do that well. So thank you very much for joining me today. As always if you enjoy this video can you please like and subscribe and share this with one friend whom you think will enjoy it because these deep dives and updates are for free and so the only way this grows is with your help. So thank you very much in advance. Take care and see you guys next time.