Democrats DENIED by Virginia Supreme Court on Redistricting I EP 711

Ajouté : 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]The Virginia Supreme Court stands in the way of Democrats gerrymandering effort.

[00:00:04]They say it's not legal. We've got an update on where the midterm elections stand. Signal pollster Nick Weinstein tells us how this aggressive 2026 redistricting will affect the outcome of the midterms. We got a lot to break down. The jobs report is going to be a big discussion going forward. Welcome to the Sean Spicer Show. Let's get into it.

[00:00:29]All right, guys. I hope you had a great weekend to all the mothers out there. I hope you had a great Mother's Day. But boy, was Friday a big day. And I'm going to tell you this right now.

[00:00:40]If you want to understand what Friday's Virginia Supreme Court ruling means and the impact that it will have on the 2020 elections, sit back, buckle up, because I'm going to give you analysis that you will not get anywhere else. The mainstream media is frankly stupid. I'm just going to tell you that right now.

[00:01:07]They don't actually know what they're talking about. I'm going to give you real numbers, real numbers about the midterm. Nick Weinstein from Signal is here with us. He's going to give us the latest lay of the environment, what the polling says. But I'm going to tell you this right now. This was huge. What happened on Friday, the media has the midterms all wrong. Most of their so-called guests, these strategists, have never strategized with anybody, never mind on a congressional race or anything else. So, I'm just telling you when you hear these pundits and strategists on CNN or elsewhere, no one ever actually tells you what they strategize with or for with whom. They they they sort of register to vote and somehow CNN puts them on. I'm going to tell you because they are so dishonest when it comes to the impact of redistricting. And then they also will tell you that this gerrymandering is sort of some Republican plan. They don't talk about the disenfranchisement of political groups like Republicans in Massachusetts or Maryland who get completely screwed. Somehow this is only a one-way street for Republicans. It's unbelievable. On my local NBC station here uh in the Washington area, the the reporter this morning said Republicans are upset because Democrats broke the rules. They didn't break the rules, folks. They broke the law. They violated the law. And it's not some like little infraction like you were playing a soccer game. This is for real. The Virginia Supreme Court on Friday struck down this Democrat attempt to violate the law in Virginia. They had taken what was now a what was then a 65 map in favor of Democrats, which got to be honest is probably the fairest thing I've ever seen. Uh when it comes to Democrats, I mean, they have a majority of the congressional delegation. That's probably where the state is right now.

[00:02:55]Um, and they wanted to go 10-1. They wanted to take five congressional districts and start them in Fairfax County, Northern Virginia, and have them go down and weave like a little snake throughout the Commonwealth South, so that people in southern Virginia were represented by a leftist liberal in Fairfax County. That's not representation. And like I said, in four distinct ways, it violated Virginia law.

[00:03:20]It was funny because when they first did this little plan, everybody on the left got excited. This is Hakeem Jeff when it kicked off. Take a listen.

[00:03:28]>> The law is with us in Virginia. The facts are with us in Virginia and the people are with us in Virginia. There's no basis in law or fact for the Virginia Supreme Court under the Constitution that exists, particularly in the aftermath of a people approved referendum to do anything other than to allow it to move forward.

[00:03:55]>> I guess he was wrong because they didn't agree with him. And like I said, there were four distinct ways that they didn't they violated the Constitution and the law. Four distinct ways. They couldn't even count to 90. That's what the law says. has to happen between the legislature approving it for a second time and the voters being quote presented it. That didn't occur. The attorney general, Jay Jones, couldn't defend that cuz it wasn't true. Uh he he literally was dumbfounded when asked by CNN about this and he couldn't answer the question. Secondly, it wasn't compact. That's what the Constitution of Virginia requires. Third, the language that they used was supposed to be in plain English that voters understood the impact. They in quite opposite did the quite the exact opposite. They wrote the ballot measure and called it fair and temporary. That's an absolute lie in misleading voters. That was their goal is to confuse people to think somehow this was some temporary thing. Remember voters in Virginia just a few years ago voted overwhelmingly 63% to take redistricting out of the hands of politicians. They didn't want to talk about that. And and lastly, by the way, so you've got the number of days, you've got the language in the constitution, but the other thing is is that the law says that it has to happen in two sessions of the general assembly and then an intervening election has to occur. Well, last session they were in a special session. They called a one-day deal as before voters had act or while voters millions of voters in Virginia had already started voting. So that was a clear another violation. Well, Hakeem Jeff, who was so clear about that take on the ruling, had a much different tune this weekend. Take a listen.

[00:05:32]>> A new generation of Americans have to show up, stand up, speak up, fight, get into good trouble to usher in an era of progress. We went from the progress of emancipation to the backlash of Jim Crow. the progress of the civil rights movement to the backlash of mass incarceration, the progress of electing Barack Obama to the backlash that has resulted in the elevation of Donald Trump, mega extremism, and this behavior that we're seeing coming out of the Supreme Court of the United States to throw the American South back into the Jim Crow era. So, it's going to take an all hands-on deck effort.

[00:06:09]>> Now, I again, I I don't even know what he's saying there. We're going back to Jim Crow. All this is out. I'm sorry because you can't have black districts.

[00:06:18]Like that's exactly the opposite of what you supposedly fight for. This is a problem of the Democratic party, not the Republican party. I've said this over and over again. Think about the black Republicans. Burgess Owens, John James, Wesley Hunt, Byron Donald's. They're not in majority black districts. They can win. But Democrats want to guarantee black Democrats a certain number of seats. Now, the thing that's so fascinating, and again, you will not hear this on anywhere else because they don't want the media and the Democrats don't want you to know this, but Justice Arthur Kelsey, who wrote the decision in that Virginia case, was elected to the Virginia Supreme Court by the Virginia Dem General Assembly in January of 15 by Democrats.

[00:07:03]You do realize this, right? So this guy gets nominated and passed through the general assembly of Democrats.

[00:07:12]It wasn't Republicans. This is a Democratic judge. If they are pissed at anyone, be pissed at your own guy. This was unbelievable.

[00:07:20]He was put on the appellet bench by Democratic Governor Mark Warner and confirmed to the Supreme Court by every legislative Democrat in the Assembly at that time. the House of Delegates, then all of them, all the Democrats voted for him. It's unbelievable. And you know what their reaction now, by the way, is they want to do two things. They're going to appeal to the Supreme Court.

[00:07:41]They have no basis for that. Number one.

[00:07:43]Number two, and this is a kicker. This is literally the kicker, by the way.

[00:07:49]They are proposing, according to the New York Times, the Democrats in Virginia are saying that they want to impose a mandatory retirement age of Virginia Supreme Court justices at age 54. 54?

[00:08:01]That's an odd age, isn't it? How would you possibly come up with that? Oh, guess what? The youngest member of the current Virginia Supreme Court is 54. So they literally want to randomly pick the age at which the youngest member of the Virginia Supreme Court says and throw them all out so they can appoint a new group who will rubber stamp what they want done.

[00:08:24]I I just the hypocrisy of these Democrats knows no bounds. But I'm going to tell you why this matters to all of us. Okay? And this is the key thing. You will not hear this anywhere else. But I'm actually going to use facts and another thing math that you're not going to have anywhere else. These guys are all of the assumption prior to Friday that they'd win the House of Representatives. Republicans have ostensibly a one seat majority. They were very clear all of this was going to benefit them. That's why they did it.

[00:08:55]California, Virginia, etc. It was unbelievable. This is what I want you to read. This is what Hakee Jeffrey said.

[00:09:03]We will win the House in 2026 and then aggressively pursue decisive electoral campaign finance and judicial reform.

[00:09:11]Democrats will protect the right of African-American communities to elect their candidate of choice through litigation and intense mobilization.

[00:09:19]I'm sorry. If you're black and you want to run for Congress, run. The Democratic Party wants to help you. Help them.

[00:09:26]Nothing's stopping you. What are you going to do? I don't understand that.

[00:09:30]Judicial reform. Oh, again that means packing the court. They don't want to say that. Campaign finance. What? What?

[00:09:36]You don't like how the problem is when they don't get their way? This is the difference. They literally want to just change the rules.

[00:09:44]And you see the reaction out of Republicans right now because according to the RNC spokesman Alli Trullio, Democrats are panicking because of decades of unconstitutional racebased germandering and finally being exposed.

[00:09:59]As I've told you guys, this whole system benefited Democrats. That's it. They didn't care about anybody else. And right now, you've got the Congressional Black Caucus, the CBC, freaking out.

[00:10:08]They're facing an existential crisis.

[00:10:11]Think about how much power the Congressional Black Caucus has within the House of Representatives. They are a mountain.

[00:10:19]Everything has to get checked off by them. And the giant in that mountain on that mountain is Jim Klyber of South Carolina. His district is about to go bye-bye. These guys were on the ascent.

[00:10:30]Remember, Clever's the guy who resurrected Joe Biden and now he's in trouble because they're about to get rid of that Charleston based South Carolina seat potentially.

[00:10:40]This is a big deal. You've got a potentially 19 of their entire caucus.

[00:10:45]That's about onethird that could get wiped out. This is going to be a big deal for the Democrats.

[00:10:52]Suddenly the old guard is going to get ushered out and a bunch of new progressive left-wing nut jobs are going to get ushered in. This is a big deal for the caucus there on the Dem side.

[00:11:04]And I just want another fun fact when these guys talk about the CBC, the Congressional Black Caucus and how they represent blacks in the South and it's important and blah blah blah, just remember they've never allowed Republicans to join. They call themselves the Congressional Black Caucus, but they don't want they don't allow Republicans to join it. And this goes back decades.

[00:11:29]It's so funny how they talk about representation and importance of color and things like that. And yet, when Republicans of color get elected, well, that doesn't count. We don't want them in our caucus. We don't care that they got elected to majority white districts cuz that's the thing. So, as I said, the Virginia Democrats are going to appeal this to the Supreme Court.

[00:11:53]Remember, our attorney general here in Virginia is a guy named Jay Jones. The same guy who threatened his political opponent, wanted to kill him and his kids.

[00:12:03]Well, apparently, aside from that small personality defect, he also isn't a great speller. And as one bad speller to another, I'm going to give you a piece of advice. Attorney General Jay Jones here in Virginia before you submit a brief to the Supreme Court. You spell check because you didn't spell Virginia right. You didn't spell senator right.

[00:12:27]And you can't even spell attorney right.

[00:12:30]You make a mockery of the job. You spell check. I've done that, you know, to help me with my problems spelling and and grammar. But this is an embarrassment.

[00:12:41]This is who these guys want. But let me just bottom line this for everybody why this matters. The momentum has suddenly shifted.

[00:12:53]In the last 10 days, Republicans went from being on their heels and being defensive to being on the offense and feeling the wind at their back.

[00:13:05]The Virginia, the Voting Rights Act being partially struck out at the Supreme Court has meant us talking about picking up seats in Louisiana and Alabama, potentially in South Carolina and Tennessee.

[00:13:19]I think we'll net three to four out of that. Florida, separate from the Voting Rights Act decision of the Supreme Court, will pick up four. And now Virginia takes those four that were in the Dem column and puts them back in the Republican column.

[00:13:32]The Cook Political Report over the weekend moved 11 races from the Democrats towards the Republicans. 11.

[00:13:41]Now, here's my math. And again, I got to tell you this because this is crucial.

[00:13:47]You got to understand this because this is where the media won't talk tell you what's really going on.

[00:13:54]Sit down, focus for the next two minutes before I bring in Nick Weinstein to talk about the polling though, because this is important.

[00:14:02]When you count up the seats in the House of Representatives and say which one are the Republicans favored to win, which ones are the Democrats and where are the toss-ups by my math? And again, there's a bunch of these guys that are out there. There's the crystal ball, there's the Cook Political Report, there's the inside elections.

[00:14:21]I've got us right now. And I'll give you the the things. The crystal ball has us Republicans at 211, Democrats at 208, toss up at 16. Inside elections has Republicans at 217, Democrats at 207 and 11 toss-ups. The Cook Political Report has Republicans at 209, Democrats at 208, toss up at 218.

[00:14:45]Why does this matter? Well, look at the math. You need 218 to get to the majority. And under the lowest scenario, which is the Cook Political Report, Republicans have 209.

[00:14:56]You take inside elections, they're at 217. Republicans under that scenario need just one seat of the toss-ups to get the majority.

[00:15:05]The media keeps saying that Democrats are favored.

[00:15:09]Yes, I'll give you that. The political headwinds are difficult. The environment favors them. There's no question about it. But you still have to run the races, folks. You actually have to go through the motions. And here's the reality.

[00:15:20]Worst case scenario, Republicans need um nine seats.

[00:15:28]Nine.

[00:15:30]That's it. Best case scenario, they need one. If you look at the inside elections under the Sabido, they need seven. The crystal ball. The point is for all these folks, the Democrats would have to run the table to take back the House. That's just not reality. And I'm just telling you because the media isn't going to share this anywhere else with you.

[00:15:54]That's the key thing. Now, I want to bring in Nick Weinstein of Signal Polling. These guys have been excellent to find out what the political landscape is and where those headwinds are blowing. Before I get to that, though, I got to tell you, we've got a great week.

[00:16:06]Tricks on the right are coming uh up with us tomorrow. Brandon Gil, Congressman from Texas, who's a master when it comes to these congressional hearings. He's going to join us on Wednesday. And we've got a great panel coming your way on Thursday. By the way, there are still tickets available.

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[00:19:54]some exclusions do apply. Without further ad uh ado, I want to bring in our great guest, Nick Weinstein, uh the principal and pollster at Signal Polling and Analytics.

[00:20:06]Nick, good to see you again. A big Friday for those of us uh I can see from the smile on your face, you uh you agree with me. Talk about the impact that this redistricting had on the prospects of Republicans holding the House.

[00:20:20]>> Well, obviously it's it's huge, right?

[00:20:22]We're talking about the difference between a 91 map to a potential 65 map.

[00:20:27]And I mean, it's it's a win for democracy, too, right? Because um the Democrats forced this redistricting across the finish line in a way that I think everybody who was an impartial observer knew was at best, you know, really, really questionable, at worst, as the Virginia Supreme Court has ruled, you know, not legal. So now, you know, Virginiaians are going to vote on fair maps. And I think ultimately there's a couple seats that are going to be pretty tough in this political climate for Republicans to hold. But uh the reality is that uh the outlook for Republicans keeping control of the House looks a heck of a lot better after the Virginia Supreme Court ruling, especially as these other states in the South now spurred by the audacious, you know, Democratic decision to try to do this.

[00:21:11]And with the Kelly decision, uh the Supreme Court ordering them to redistrict to eliminate these, uh, you know, racially gerrymandered districts, uh, the outlook's a lot better than it was the last time we were together.

[00:21:22]That's for sure.

[00:21:23]>> Yeah. The thing that's interesting to me is that if you hear the Democrats, they especially the black Democrats, there they seem to believe that voters will, you know, revolt against this. Uh I I don't I've never seen in my 30 years that that someone really cared about redistricting as an issue. It seems like inside baseball. Is this something that you expect or have seen show up in any kind of surveys?

[00:21:49]>> No. I mean, this is inside baseball. I mean, obviously voters that are, you know, left leaning in and uh aggressively anti-Trump, you know, this is just another arrow in the quiver for those folks to motivate them, but they're already angry about a thousand other things, and they'll find a thousand more things to be angry about between now and November. But I think this is a non-factor politically. Um, I think the only place where we see this showing up is actually, ironically, in Republican primary elections. And if you look at the results in in Indiana, a place where, you know, President Trump intervened because their legislature refused to uh go after uh take a look at redistricting, um they paid the the consequence there. But as a general election issue, it's still the economy.

[00:22:32]The economy, the economy.

[00:22:33]>> Okay. One of the things before we move on to to like Iran and the economy um is Hakee Jeff and some of the CBC, the Congressional Black Caucus members have really talked about how they're going to go out there and fight this. Um do you think that black voters might be motivated to go out and vote in the midterms in a way that they wouldn't have prior to these decisions?

[00:23:01]I just find that somewhat hard to believe, right? I think um if you're an average American, black, white, or Hispanic, you're waking up every day worried about, you know, putting food on the table, putting gas in your car, not you know, the ethnicity of the person that represents you in Congress. And I think, you know, what is most telling to me is that these debates over, you know, these uh historically majority minority districts, I mean, the the debate that we're having in in Tennessee, the representative isn't even African-American. It's a just happens to be a Democrat. So, this is like an internal, I think, uh, party issue for folks that are in the activist class on both the right and the left. But, I don't think your average black voters waking up in the morning saying, "Man, I wish my representative were black." I think they're waking up and they're saying, "I wish Washington would do something to make things a little bit easier for me to put food on the table."

[00:23:53]>> I I do think it's worth noting you you mentioned that Tennessee Memphis district, right? A guy name is Steve Cohen, who's as white as you can get, represents a district that was drawn for blacks.

[00:24:04]>> Yeah. Well, in in the first race, the first statewide race that I ever ran was Daniel Cameron's race for attorney general in Kentucky, the first elected African-American statewide in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. And we were winning in that Republican primary counties where I guarantee you not a single black voter cast a ballot in the Republican primary. And that's the beauty of America, right? And you know, you look at a state like South Carolina where there's been all this hyperbole that you know, if we redistrict the congressional maps, you know, it'll be another hundred years before um a black member of Congress comes out of South Carolina. But they forget that Tim Scott is a sitting United States senator that represents the entire uh state of South Carolina. We're in a post-racial society right now and it's the Democrats that are kicking and screaming to try to take us back to the age of Jim Crow and segregation.

[00:24:49]>> By the way, there is something to a bit of irony about this Tennessee issue, right? Which is that Steve Cohen is a white Democrat representing the area and he may lose his seat and he might be replaced by a black Republican.

[00:25:03]>> Right. Right. Yeah.

[00:25:04]>> I mean, the the irony of that could not have been crazier.

[00:25:09]>> Yeah. And I think over the years, I think five times black Republicans have run against Steve Cohen and have lost because this isn't about race. It's about the partisanship of Steve Cohen.

[00:25:18]>> Well, and also if it's a majority minority district, I know he's the outlier, but it is interesting that no one seems to complain that he represents that.

[00:25:26]>> Right. Right. Yeah.

[00:25:27]>> Or that you might get a you might get a you know an issue like as I mentioned uh suddenly having a black Republican doesn't count as as well. And I noted this earlier. I mean, it's funny how much they care about this until a black Republican does well. Um, you know, the CBC doesn't seem to acknowledge that in any way, shape, or form, >> right? Yeah. 100%.

[00:25:47]>> All right, let let's move on to Iran real quick. The president heading to China this week. Um, and I think obviously Iran's going to be top of mind. They China gets a lot of its fuel from there. Um, what what impact is Iran writ large? Cuz the other thing is, again, not to throw in another issue here, but like the president seems to have gotten really pissed about Iran's latest deal. I got to think that bombing is back on the agenda. Um, what what is the current state of how Iran is impacting voter views, attitudes, and potentially the 2026 uh election?

[00:26:25]>> Well, it's still it's still it comes back to the economy, right? And the problem with Iran isn't that we're in Iran or that we're confronting Iran.

[00:26:33]Iran is still deeply unpopular with the American people. And I think people recognize that the regime is a negative to international security. The problem is that the price at the pumps and the price of goods and services have only gone up even more than they were before because of the downstream, you know, economic impacts of what's happening in the Gulf. And that's the real, I think, challenge for President Trump is that, you know, Americans are looking at Republicans and they're looking at Trump and they're saying, "Hey, like we need an off-ramp here. We need some relief um at the grocery store. We need some relief at the gas pumps. But you know the danger if President Trump makes a deal with Iran is that if he leaves them the loaded gun of you know we can reseize control of the straight of Warmuz at any time you know that puts all the power with the Iranian regime to you know as we get closer to the election or at the next election season to start to you know um make noise about you know closing the straight and then suddenly sending sky prices skyrocketing again. And I think that's kind of the tough position that he's in right now is um the American people desperately want relief on the economy, but he's not really able to give it to them without giving the Iranian regime a loaded gun.

[00:27:44]So, >> well, so let's let's de dive dive deep into that for a second. Chris Wright was the energy who's the energy secretary was asked about this on um a bunch of the Sunday shows yesterday. If for example the president suspended um the the national gas tax and I'm I'm not in necessarily in favor of this because I be hard to put it back on but if he could do something like that that would drop the price of the pump like like that right away. Right. So there's a export ban that he could put in place.

[00:28:12]There's the but from a polling perspective a purely >> political partisan like it would that be a good political move for him to do something that at least got the price down?

[00:28:24]>> Yeah. Look, I and I think to an extent too, we've got to remember like this is not election season right now, right?

[00:28:29]So, I almost want to be us have us be thinking forward to like where where gas prices is going to be when the majority of voters start to go to vote in the fall, right? But yeah, I think if President Trump can go to voters and can say to voters as they're making up their mind for the midterms, hey, look, gas prices are not as bad as they um were over the summer. They're now similar to where they were before the Iran conflict started. That's obviously going to help uh make the economic case, but I think we've just got to be laser focused that voters are making their decision in November. They're not making it now. So, let's not pull out all the stops now.

[00:29:05]>> Okay, let's break that down just a second because I've I've argued that, you know, when you go into the summer, >> like the these decisions are like a bake slowly in, right? Yeah. So you might cast your ballot, >> let's call it October, November because you know, okay, few more and more people are voting earlier than November.

[00:29:25]>> Absolutely.

[00:29:25]>> But you make up your mind probably earlier than that. And and in your as a pollster, if you're advising these candidates, >> hey, this is when you really need to focus your ads, your message, whatever.

[00:29:36]What's that sweet spot? Is it is it August? Is it the beginning of September? Is it as late as late September? Like you just mentioned, you'd rather wait. So, what is that sweet spot in your mind that a candidate should say, "This is when I want the prices to be lowest. This is when I want my message to get out there."

[00:29:55]>> I think it just varies so much state by state because every state's voting differently now. And, you know, in some states, early voting, I mean, look, we look at Virginia, 45 days of early voting is what ultimately uh derailed their whole redistricting. So, it depends a little bit. And look, I every single thing that Republicans in Congress should be doing between now and November is focusing on affordability, focusing on bringing down the cost of goods and services. Um, I would say they should work on that all the way through the summer and and into the fall. But if there's, you know, a maybe a sugar rush where we're going to, you know, flip the switch and suddenly we can drop, you know, the gas tax, but there's a chance that in the longer term those prices are going to continue to climb. I wouldn't want to be flipping any switches until, you know, around Labor Day or after Labor Day. If there's a, you know, one time, you know, one shot, this is going to drive prices down, but it's not going to be super sustainable. I I would wait till after Labor Day.

[00:30:50]>> Okay. So because that's what I've always found to be the interesting I get that there's a little bit of a ban there a spectrum of when but you know to I I think somewhere around that time is got to be key right so there they're done with maybe a summer vacation but is there enough time for that to bake in I remember I always tell people in 1992 George HW Bush was right that the economy was getting better but people hadn't felt it yet so there's a difference I mean you you referenced the flipping the switch so if you could drop gas prices real quick 50%, right? Don't you need a little bit more time for that to bake into people's psyche?

[00:31:25]>> I think you may. I also think that the average voter that's still undecided about what party they're supporting even now is a voter that tunes into politics very very late in the cycle. And I also think gas prices are just a little bit different than a lot of other economic indicators in the sense that, you know, the average thing that's actually causing financial pressure for voters, ironically, isn't gas prices. They spend a lot more money at the grocery store every week. Wages, housing, you know, health care costs are all way bigger financial stressors on the average American family than gas prices. but they see the gas prices every single day when they drive down Main Street because they're prominently posted outside of every gas station, right? So, I think if there was an economic indicator where you could flip a switch and it would be resonate almost immediately and people would start to pick up on it, it gas prices would be the place because it's the only place where your average American is seeing the price of a commodity every single day, day in and day out, right?

[00:32:24]>> I agree with you. I mean, I I like I joke with people all the time. I've got two gas stations at the top of my street and I literally will keep an eye on how they're doing, which one's cheaper. But that kind of answers my next question, I think, which is if the administration had one thing to focus on that they could really put all their effort into getting something down to address this affordability issue. In your opinion, is it gas prices or would it be like food and commodities or something like that?

[00:32:50]Well, the number one stressor that we see in our surveys when we ask people about, you know, um economic stress is at the grocery store um it's food um in food prices. And now I think if you ask economists, they would say that's downstream of gas prices and that higher gas prices means higher cost for, you know, agriculture to go out there and to harvest this stuff in the field. And the cost to transport it, you know, to the grocery store is a major driver of that food cost. But people were telling us that prices at the grocery store are a major major point of concern. So I would say uh look at the grocery store, look at gas prices, and then we need to just find a way to be better about talking about economic issues as Republicans.

[00:33:29]You know, I think the two takeaways from President Trump's one big beautiful bill that really resonated with folks was the no taxes on tips and taxes on overtime because people recognize, well, I am in a tipped wage job and now I'm not being taxed on it. I work a lot of overtime.

[00:33:43]I'm not being taxed on it. But, you know, marginal changes to people's tax rate, that's really really hard for really plugged in people like myself to understand what the economic impact is to my um, you know, budget until I start doing my taxes at the end of the year, let alone the average voter. So, making individual economic arguments about how President Trump's policies are, you know, putting more money in the pockets of average voters is is the game between now and November.

[00:34:10]So that's I I kind of am intrigued by this because I think that you're right that there's a lot of things that they've done, i.e. those two things that you just mentioned specifically, the no tax on tips and tax on overtime. Then you've got no tax on social security, the American car, right? But is this >> is is it your opinion that some of this is just pure messaging that they're not spending enough time hammering it home?

[00:34:35]Because I feel like the the policies are there. It's just that we're not maybe selling them enough or advertising them enough.

[00:34:42]>> Yeah, I think that's I think that's 100% right. And we even saw this with some of the uh the other tax reform bills that Republicans have pushed in the past. And you know, we got to tax season and people were saying, "Well, my return is smaller than it was the year before."

[00:34:54]But it's because we've withheld less money from your paycheck and you were taxed less over the course of the year.

[00:34:59]So, I think we just got to recognize as communicators that the average person is not as economically sophisticated as maybe, you know, um, us policy makers are. And I certainly don't consider myself economically sophisticated at all. And I couldn't tell you, you know, how different the amount of federal taxes I paid last year was compared to the years before because, you know, your wages change and economic conditions change. So, we've got to do a much better job as Republicans if we're going to do something, you know, big like tax reform of explaining to people, what does this actually mean for you? Uh because the average voter is not going to give us credit at the end of the year. They're going to say, "Oh, well, my tax returns seem smaller, but maybe I have about the same amount of money in my in my uh in my bank account as I had before, but things are more expensive."

[00:35:45]And they kind of shrug their shoulders.

[00:35:46]And, you know, Republicans and President Trump don't get any of the credit.

[00:35:49]Whereas, Democrats are really good. if they're going to give you an economic benefit, they're going to cut you a check and send it to you in the mail and you're going to get that check signed by, you know, Democratic administration and that the average voter is going to recognize, well, that was money that that I got from the government. Whereas, you know, we could cut your taxes by 50%. And for a lot of people, they just kind of shrug their shoulders and say, oh, okay.

[00:36:08]>> I know the Door Dash stunt that the president did the other day with that woman bringing the McDonald's kind of got some ridicule, but I actually liked it. I thought that it was bringing home this notion of people who are actually benefiting from the policies. Do you think that's kind of the thing that we need to do more of? Is is that what we're talking about here?

[00:36:28]>> Yeah, I think it's getting people like that woman from Door Dash, getting folks that are regular everyday Americans working in this economy to be the third party um you know, advocates of how the policy is is helping them. Because let's be honest, I mean, President Trump's approval ratings are pretty consistent.

[00:36:46]There's a segment of people that no matter what President Trump says on every on any given day, could be sky is blue, they're going to, you know, stomp their feet and disagree with him. And in general, just people are really um you know, I think dissatisfied with Washington DC. They don't put a lot of trust in the Republicans. They don't put a lot of trust in the Democrats either.

[00:37:05]Uh but the one place where there is sort of still trust in institutions is on Main Street in small businesses and you know folks that live in the community.

[00:37:14]Your everyday average American worker is the best advocate for these policies because a lot of people feel like they've been burned by Washington, have been burned by, you know, big business, have been burned by both parties in the past and they just kind of tune everything out. So finding voters and finding institutions that have trust in and making them the the centerpiece of of this debate is is a is great politics and great policy.

[00:37:40]>> Is there a demographic, Nick, that we need to really worry about? We hear about young men um who are becoming disenfranchised with or or disengaged or whatever the dword is. Um, we hear about black men, Hispanics, folks that were part of the winning 2024 coalition that might be interesting or is it not so much that they're really that big of a deal in a midterm election?

[00:38:04]>> I think there's a little bit of both, right? I the the midterm coalition for Republicans has just changed a lot since President Trump has kind of taken over as the leader of the party. We used to be the Republican party used to be the party of like high turnout, high political engagement voters. And that's kind of changed and we're we're now a big segment of the, you know, Trump Republican electorate is far less politically engaged and far less likely to vote in the midterm than, you know, maybe the Republican party of 2010, 2012, and certainly before that. Um, so it's uh I'm concerned about low information, like low political engagement voters across the demographic spectrum. They tend to be younger. As we as our voters get older, they seem to get more politically engaged. But the other thing that concerns me and it's not so much a demographic issue, it's an information flow issue. And where are these voters getting their news from?

[00:38:53]And it's overwhelmingly uh from social media. I think we saw I think it was voters under 25 or voters under 35 in our most recent uh national voter trends survey. 44% of them one of their primary sources of news was Tik Tok. And look, there's just not a lot of conservative voices on Tik Tok. there's not a lot of Republican uh influencers um that are communicating day in and day out with young people. And I think that was like one of the big strengths of the most recent Trump presidential uh campaign is he found a way to get folks um that were maybe not political but were in that ecos and talking to those voters was able to get them to become advocates for the campaign and they delivered a message to a segment of voters that otherwise aren't seeing political news. So is that an issue that they need to do more double down on like going on Theo Vaughn and the Neelk boys and stuff like in other words go to where they are or is there an issue that we need to juice like so is it hey we need to find something they get young voters or the base guys like I think save America is a big one with the base right but is there is it is it something we need to do to juice them or is it that we need to meet them where they're at or both? I think it's a combination of both, right? Like I think it would be great and I I am sure that we will see a big push for Republicans to try to go on these uh programs with these established voices and to be communicating in those mediums. But I also think, you know, a lot of news now is being consumed in these short, you know, 15 and six second clips. And I just, you know, and this is not necessarily just a Republican party problem, but we don't have a lot of communicators in the Republican party that are really comfortable communicating with voters in like Tik Tok or on Instagram and these six-second and 15-second, you know, blurbs. And I think uh redoubling our efforts certainly, you know, at a place like the RNC and with the national party more globally to say like, hey, how do we find voices in the Republican party that are comfortable communicating that way?

[00:40:51]Because look, we're we're not going to go to uh to the Senate and put Mitch McConnell, you know, in sixsecond short form videos and have any kind of success there. But how do we find a way to to, you know, reccalibrate our communications to recognize the fact that, you know, our politicians every day go on Fox News every day, go on these cable news outlets and do these long form interviews. And that's great for the segment of people that watch it, but you know, the the next generation of voters, they're not seeing any of that.

[00:41:18]and it's not really um translating and there's an an echo chamber that's being dominated by left of center voices and um you know an algorithm that's you know got some uh some thumbs on the scale too. So >> I I I I listen I'm with I've been preaching this for a while which is they've got to start going stop going to just out legacy outlet the average viewer that watches cable news is close to 70.

[00:41:43]>> Yeah.

[00:41:43]>> I mean that's that's just not where the the future is right. Two more quick questions for you. A report came out Friday, aside from the Virginia ruling that crime, this is according to Axio, crime falls almost everywhere. Baltimore County, Maryland down 83%.

[00:41:58]Suffach County, New York down 72%.

[00:42:00]Omaha, Nebraska down 71%. Aurora, Colorado, 67% down. Newark, New Jersey, 66% down. Washington DC 64.7. Is this an issue that's worth talking about or is it just, hey, you're already in a blue area anyway. You're not going to get any credit. Don't bother.

[00:42:18]>> No, look, I think this is a critical part of building the Republican coalition going forward, especially as cities like New York, you know, embrace, you know, Donnie that, you know, I think policies are going to, you know, have a really negative effect on the NYPD's ability to fight crime and other cities like, you know, Washington DC has a competitive mayoral election going on right now between a candidate that I think styles themselves as sort of mom donny light and a more, you know, establishment Democratic candidate.

[00:42:45]Republicans have to stake out this position as the trusted uh party of adults on crime. And we've got to continue to beat that drum and celebrate the successes. Unfortunately, because crime is down so much, sort of similar to immigration, we're a little bit of a victim of our own success here. This isn't the issue that's top of mind for voters. But we've got to beat the drum and where we can show that the Democrats are out of touch with like common sense policies like if you're a violent criminal and you commit another violent crime, you should be held in jail before your trial. You know, basic common sense stuff like that, that stuff still resonates. And if Republicans can position themselves as the party of common sense, uh they're going to make further inroads in, you know, urban communities and suburban communities.

[00:43:26]>> Okay, last yes or no. Do you think that we should be doing uh a lot more to find out uh about UFOs and alien life?

[00:43:36]>> Uh sure. Yes. Uh look, I I I think uh we we see this in our polling all the time.

[00:43:42]People are more conspiratorial than ever. I think the problem with the UFO debate is we could put out all the UFO documents tomorrow and people wouldn't believe that those were all documents, right? So, we're in a a no-win situation here. Unless someone can, you know, produce someone out of Area 51 for us, I think people are going to still have questions. So, >> I like that idea. Nick Weinstein from Signal Polling, thanks for being with us. I'm going to follow up on that.

[00:44:02]>> Thanks, Sean. See you.

[00:44:05]>> All right, that was a great conversation with Nick. I got to tell you one other thing that I want to share with you before we leave. It gave me a chuckle over the weekend. Alexandria Okasiocortez was in a conversation with David Axelro, the former Obama adviser.

[00:44:19]Um, and she was asked about whether or not some of these suggestions that she consider running for the Senate or the presidency are top of mind to her because the Washington Post had criticized her for some of her positions, saying if for someone who wants to advance up the ranks, these are not the positions that one takes, especially when it talks to critiquing uh billionaires. And this is how she responded. Take a listen.

[00:44:44]>> You know, it's funny because um in this op-ed that uh Jeff Bezos paid for in the Washington Post, um um there was this line that you had mentioned earlier about well as a potential 2028 contender XYZ. And in the context of that, it's it was very clear this was a veiled threat, right? So the elite saying if you want this job, you just stepped out of line and we want you to know where the real power is. And it's in the it's in the modern-day barrens who own the post and own the algorithms and we're going to we'll make an example out of you. And what's funny about that is that they assume that my ambition is positional.

[00:45:41]They assume that my ambition is a title or a seat.

[00:45:46]And my ambition is way bigger than that.

[00:45:51]Um, my ambition is to change this country.

[00:45:55]>> All right, there you go. My ambition is way bigger than that. I'm going to change the country. I mean, I I gotta tell you, I laugh when I hear this. She is so cocky. My ambition is because this I don't just want to be president. I want to be like Zar and ruler. Um it's it's egotistical.

[00:46:14]It's kind of stupid, too, because it's also like, how are you going to make change if you're not in one of those positions? Remember, she'd be still in her 30s if she ran for president. But this just tells you the hutzbah of a woman like this. I know. We should tap into all that experience she has as a bartender. I think it's smart. Anyway, I appreciate uh her sharing that with us because that's our moment of the zen as we head into this week. President's going to be going to China. We'll talk a lot about that going forward. We got a big big uh week on tap as I mentioned a lot about what that trip means, what he should what the deliverables are. And as I mentioned, if you're interested in coming to Washington DC to attend the Trump Kennedy Center event on Friday to celebrate the discussion of Trump 2.0, my brand new New York Times bestseller, uh go to shanpicer.com. Those tickets are there. I appreciate you being with us. Thanks for everything. We'll see you back here tomorrow on the Sean Spicer Show.

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