PROF. SIR JOHN CURTICE explains what you should expect from the local elections | ITV Peston

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:02]John, um, we showed, uh, before the interview a a fall in Zach Palansky's personal rating.

[00:00:11]>> Um, do you think that's real? Do you think that's going on? And do you think it'll have an impact tomorrow on on actually what the Greens >> Okay, two points to make. The first is that's one poll. Okay, so always exactly which is why I'm asking you. Okay, the same poll showed support for the Greens down by one point which statisticians will say so what >> and the truth is that um in the end the popularity of a party is dependent on the effective communicative abilities of their leader but the popularity of a party is not simply a product of the popularity of leader I mean after all Karma has been perpetually less popular than his party okay but that didn't stop him winning the general election In 2024, Chem Bedon is now more popular than her party, [laughter] but her increased popularity has so far not succeeded in bringing the Conservative Party's support up. So, yes, leaders matter, but the popularity of leader doesn't necessarily determine the overall standing of the party.

[00:01:07]>> And just on the one part of the world where Labor is absolutely terrified of the Greens, which is London.

[00:01:14]>> Um, how well do you think the Greens will do?

[00:01:16]>> The truth is two things could end up being true of London. one that Labour end up with their lowest ever share of the vote. That's what some of the polls are saying, even worse than uh in 1968 and 2006 when they got 28%. But at the same time, they would still be the largest party in London. Because what the polling is suggesting in London is that while the Greens are challenging Labor, yes, they are still about four or five points behind and under our electoral system, being first is crucial. So I think the Greens will do damage to Labor in London, but I be at the moment the polling does not suggest we're going to find a London bur being run by the Greens after Thursday. Peppa, it is evil pole. So let's talk elections.

[00:01:56]>> Yeah. Well, lots more to talk about and we're going to start by looking at Wales. Now Labor has dominated in Wales for more than a century. It's dominated more than any or for longer than any party has dominated in any democracy.

[00:02:10]I'm told even more than the South Terian People's Party in Northern Italy.

[00:02:15]Something I'm sure in fact I'm sure John will enjoy. But John, this is ITV Wales's Yugov MRP.

[00:02:23]>> Look at how the red line for Labor has dropped off. How big a collapse do you think this is really going to be in Labor's heartlands? Well, I mean the polling frankly is consistently in Wales showing for some time now that Labor have lost support very heavily indeed on a scale greater than true across the UK as a whole. The truth is Labor have a double problem in Wales. Number one is the unpopularity of the current UK Labor government, not least amongst those who voted for it uh it two years ago. But on top of that, discontent, unhappiness with the record of the Welsh devolved Labor government. And those two things together have created a perfect storm from which essentially well is what's then been going on basically labor are losing ground very very heavily to plight.

[00:03:07]>> Yeah.

[00:03:07]>> And at the same time the conservatives are losing ground very heavily to reform. So effectively the leftright battle that used to be between conservative and labor is now displaced by a battle between plight and reform.

[00:03:17]>> Well let's look at that how tight it is between pied in the green there and reform in blue. Is it possible that ply wins a majority in Wales and what is and what's the significance of that if you end up with a nationalist party in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland?

[00:03:30]>> Okay, two points to make. Very very unlikely that anybody will get an overall majority. Wales is now going to have a completely proportional system.

[00:03:37]Uh but the second thing to say is that the the polls are sufficiently close. We can't be sure who was going to come first, but it doesn't look likely that the composition of the new Senate will have enough people who are willing to elect a reform first minister, even if there are slightly more reform MSS than implied MS's for anything other than Reaperworth to be elected as the next first minister of Wales. And yes, uh, given that in Scotland, John Sminny is likely to get re be remain first minister. Michelle O'Neal of course is the first minister in Belfast. This would mean that all three devolved administrations are being run by nationalist first ministers. That wasn't the idea of the original devolution project, which was to maintain the integrity of the United Kingdom.

[00:04:22]>> Well, let's take a look at Scotland.

[00:04:23]Now, as you say, the SNP are expected to win, although I think probably just shy of majority. We had Nicholas Sturgeon on a couple of weeks ago talking to us about that. But tell us explain to us why reform are doing so well not just in in Wales but also in Scotland.

[00:04:37]>> Well, it depends what you mean by so well. Okay. Now remember reform are running at 26% across the polls across the UK as a whole and you've seen that uh also reflected in Wales. Wales voted for Brexit. The country as a whole voted for Brexit. Scotland did not vote for Brexit. Remember reform supporters are very very heavily the people who voted for Brexit in 2016. And so in Scotland, if you take particularly uh the list vote or indeed the position vote, they're running at about 18%. So yes, there is a constituency of people that the reform can appeal to in Scotland, people who voted for Brexit, people who are concerned about immigration, people um who are skeptical about equalities policies. These are all the very distinctive characteristics of reform voters, but there are fewer of them in Scotland and therefore they're they're proving to be less popular. That said, reform are almost undoubtedly going to have a decisive influence on the result of this election because the reason why the SMP are ahead is not because the S&P are particularly popular. about 35% compares with 48% back in 2021 at the last election. But the because what reform we've done is to take votes away from Labor, from the Conservatives, and to some degree the Democrats and has hardly taken a single person who voted for the S&P in 2024. The S&P at least still have that block of people who voted for them two years ago. It was a losing number two years ago, but thanks to the decline of their opponents, it's now looking like a winning number. In other words, the S&P are not winning this election. Their opponents are losing it.

[00:06:09]>> John, can I just ask you on reform? Just one thing, which is Pipper's paper keeps dredging up what some would see as sort of scandals about Nigel Barrow. Just the latest one was a sort of 5 million >> quid present from a sort of crypto billionaire. Why does none of this mud seem to stick to >> Well, let's take the stories about what said in a playground in Dulich, okay? Uh back in the 1960s.

[00:06:33]um think then of the typical person who votes for reform. The typical person who votes for reform is not particularly concerned about political correctness.

[00:06:41]They are relatively old and they will remember as frankly I can that in the 1960s in school playgrounds the kind of language that's being talked about was not uncommon and to that extent therefore you're not telling reformed voters something that cuts across their image of what Nigel Farage is about and frankly what they themselves believe in unless and until journalists find something that actually cuts across what those who vote reform uh value Nigel Farage before then frankly these stories are going to get >> but John don't these people think somehow the country is unfair and therefore getting a 5 million quid bung surely they think is unfair don't they >> well I mean there then there was then an argument about the fact that Nigel Farage got this money before he decided to reenter the election campaign two weeks into election campaign >> he's being investigated by standards >> yeah and there is now there is now a technical argument uh uh going on but you know I think nobody is surprised at learning that Nigel Fra is quite good at attracting money there's another story going around at the moment about the fact that he's the highest earner inside the House of Commons. That >> yeah, two million quid so far since he became an MP, I believe. But let's take it.

[00:07:48]>> Well, you know, he's he's obviously very good at raising money, Pipper. Maybe you and I have got a lesson to learn.

[00:07:52]>> Maybe so, but we're not MPs at the same time. But anyway, this chart here shows us vote shares in general elections since 1945, working back up to 2006. And you can see how it's been dominated by two parties and the Lib Dems's coming in uh in more recent years, but how that's fragmented. Look at the polls, the top line there in 2026. Now, with first pass the post, um this is going to make your job a nightmare, isn't it? Do you think I mean, do you think it's inevitable we're going to end up with a system of proportional representation?

[00:08:21]>> Well, uh the answer to that question is no. Although it is true that public opinion on the issue has changed quite substantially. British social attitudes I have some responsibility for. Uh has been wanting a question for a long time that until relatively recently clearly felt more people felt we should keep the current system than change it. After the 2024 election the supporters of every single party including supporters of the Conservative party were saying actually maybe we should change the system. So public opinion has shifted. But the truth is until we have a government at Westminster that thinks it's in its interest to change the electoral system or is reliant on uh smaller parties for to remain in office and those smaller parties saying that's the price. We are not going to change our electoral system. But yes, uh our politics is fragmented. We are in unprecedented circumstances. And it's the extent to which that is true and how it plays out in different parts of England, Scotland and Wales that we're looking to look for the evidence for on Thursday. So yes, a tougher job, but arguably a much more interesting job than those boring old days when there were just two big parties to worry about.

[00:09:27]>> I mean, John, should Laya be more worried than she apparently is?

[00:09:30]>> I I think I think the New Democrat should be worried. The obvious question to ask is that back in the 1980s, the then Liberal SDP Alliance said it wanted to crack the mode of British politics.

[00:09:42]And the truth is at the moment it is not despite the fact that we've got a deeply unpopular Labor government, a Conservative party whose reputation was trashed by its perceived record in the last Westminster Parliament. The two parties that are now posing a much bigger challenge to the traditional two-party system uh are not Liberal Democrats. It is Greens and Reform. And to that extent at least, Liberal Democrats seem to be at serious risk of being left behind.

[00:10:07]>> I mean, >> we shall see.

[00:10:09]>> Okay, >> we shall see.

[00:10:10]>> Okay, John. Sadly, we're almost out of time, but um I mean obviously if you talk to Labour MPs, they say Starmmer plays unbelievably badly, but is there anybody that you can see who's a potential leader who would poll way better than Star?

[00:10:25]>> Well, we can look at the current popularity of those people who are thought to be potential contenders and amongst that group, Andy Burton, who of course is not currently eligible, is clearly the most popular. uh thereafter it's probably Angela Raina and some of the characters that mentioned like like Sabina Mammud frankly poll very very badly but of course at the end of the day the other question you have to ask yourself if you're a Labour MP is who do I think could actually do the job because at the end of the day it's not the current popularity that matters it's the ability of whoever become who became who be Karma's successor to a to do the job of prime minister effect effectively then b crucially and this is obviously the thing that they criticize star for to be able to communicate effectively with the wider electorate. A sense of direction for this government.