Countdown to Hurricane Season | Forecasting with Friends

Added: 2026-05-17

[00:00:00]I have a few minutes here to talk about the countdown to hurricane season and it's just so everybody can be prepared.

[00:00:07]You know, we always talk about what's the forecast? What are we going to see?

[00:00:11]You know, is it going to be above average, below average? It takes one storm for it to be a busy and potentially dangerous hurricane season. That's something you got to keep in mind. So, Colorado State University already gave us their prediction. 13 named storms, six six hurricanes rather and two of those being major. That was very similar to what we saw last year and that is technically below seasonal.

[00:00:38]Now, NOAA is actually going to be releasing their outlook for the 2026 hurricane season next Thursday. So, on HTX at 10, we're going to be bringing it to you live and then obviously we'll be doing the overview talking about what they think um and you know, it is going to be interesting to see. We're actually going to be transitioning into what we call a super El Nino meaning El Nino conditions are going to be uh very prevalent by around the time of the peak of hurricane season. So, um easy for me to remember because my daughter was born on the peak of hurricane season, September 10th. So, you know, as we get closer to the end and that's usually when we see a lot of things ramping up across the Atlantic. But with El Nino, what we do is the trade winds are weaker in the Pacific. So, that means warmer water, higher moisture content. So, the Pacific hurricane season, which actually starts on Friday tends to be much busier. We see more activity. There's not a ton of wind shear.

[00:01:35]On the flip side of that, in the Atlantic and Caribbean, there is more wind shear. And basically, wind shear is like the arch nemesis of tropical systems. Wind shear tears apart the tops of hurricanes and when they're lopsided, they can't get their act together and strengthen.

[00:01:52]Now, something that hurricanes do like and can form easily is with warm water temperatures.

[00:01:59]And that's what we've been seeing in the Gulf. So, that's kind of why my ears are perked a little bit. It's like, "Okay.

[00:02:04]Well, you would need wind shear at the exact time that a tropical system would be forming because if not, it'd be over the warm waters and that's just adds fuel to the fire." So, as a meteorologist, that's what I'm looking at on these El Niño expectations.

[00:02:17]Obviously, we would love for it to be a super strong El Niño and we don't see a lot of activity, but it is something that we are watching for you closely as always.