AMOC at risk: Could the critical Atlantic current collapse?

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:07]This is Climate Watch. I'm Jaoyang.

[00:00:09]Welcome to the show.

[00:00:17]You may still remember the Hollywood blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow, where a sudden collapse of the ocean's currents plunges the world into an ice age. While the movie dramatically exaggerated the speed and scale of those changes, the ocean circulation system at the center of the story known as the Atlantic meridian overturning circulation or AMO is very real. It acts like the planet's vital climate conveyor belt, moving immense heat from the tropics up to the northern hemisphere.

[00:00:48]But as the planet warms, growing evidence suggests this critical Atlantic current is weakening. A recent study published in Science Advances warns that AOK is on course to slow by more than 50% by the end of the century, potentially leading to an eventual collapse. This follows research showing that AMO has already been a weakening at four different locations in the Atlantic over the past 20 years. So, how worried should we be? What would a major slowdown of AMO mean for a climate? And how close are we to a potential tipping point? Joining us now is Paul Beckwith.

[00:01:26]He is a climate system scientist based in Ottawa and a popular content creator on YouTube. Paul, it's great to have you with us.

[00:01:34]>> Well, thank you for having me.

[00:01:36]>> So, first of all, can you explain in simple terms like what AOK actually is and how it impacts our planet's climate system?

[00:01:44]>> Yes. So, AMO um the Atlantic meridinal overturning circulation.

[00:01:50]It basically describes the movement of the ocean currents in the in the Atlantic mostly in the north south direction which is what Merido is looking at. And then so you have the think of the Gulf Stream off the US moving northeast across the Atlantic. So it's warm, it's salty. As it goes further northward to higher latitudes, the water cools down and so you have colder salty water which is very dense.

[00:02:20]So that water sinks at certain points up in the in the far north um and then it goes down and becomes uh comprises the deep water which then moves its way back southward. So the AMO is part of what is more generally called the thermmoaline circulation the THC or the the entire ocean circulation system um which is driven by temperature and salt content basically. So it's a way that the oceans um transport heat and salt. Um and you know the earth tries to you know the poles are very cold because of the the geometry of of the sun on the earth etc. The poles are very cold. So the the ocean currents try to bring heat from the temperate regions near the equator to the polar regions to try to balance things out a bit. So it's a very very key component of the climate system. Um and it for example the heat carried northeast across the Atlantic Ocean uh is very important for providing heat to to northern Europe. You know areas of high latitude in Europe are much warmer now than they would be if the AOCH didn't exist. So it's very important for global you know for a whole climate system essentially and there's a very landmark paper in 1991 by the famous climatologist US climatologist Wally broker and the paper is called the great ocean conveyor so he described it clearly then one of the leading experts on the Amok is Stefan Ramsdorf at the Potam Institute he's been studying the AMO for for 35 years.

[00:04:12]>> Yes. Tell us more about the the main physical factors that control or destabilize this circulation system.

[00:04:20]>> Yes. So the main uh controls are the the temperature uh because um warm water has a lower density. It's not as heavy. Uh so it tends to float on the surface versus colder water which is denser and and and sinks below. Um and salinity is also a key factor in the density. So saltier water uh is heavier, more dense versus fresher water. Um and uh so the main controls are the temperature and the salinity. Thus the thermo haline, thermo for temperature, haling for salt content. um the Gulf Stream um there's also very a lot of factors like it's a wind driven current essentially as well um and um so changes in in the freshwater inputs um in the far north are the reason for the am weakening. So we're getting lots of melt from Greenland and that fresh water enters that region and makes it fresher. we're getting um you know because the water is warming from from climate change the it's it's a lot lighter and it's it's got less tendency to sink down to form the deep water and also um you know as we get more rainfall rainfall patterns change uh that freshens the water we're getting more rainfall in the far northern regions and uh so all of these factors we're getting more river runoff um from from uh you know high arctic regions. So more and more fresh water makes the water lighter and less likely to sink down. And then that so that slows the amock and there's a very strong reinforcing feedback because you know as the am slows down there's less transport of that salty warm water to the north. So it becomes fresher and fresher and then the whole system can basically slow down severely or even shut down which would basically be really uh have really detrimental effects to to people. The the climate system would completely refigure and and change if that was to occur.

[00:06:38]>> Okay. So human activity does have a huge impact on this system. Yes, human activity has a big impact because we're, you know, we're definitely warming, we're getting lots of warming of ocean water at the surface. Uh we're getting lots of uh so-called uh marine heat waves that we never had before. Um, and part of that is to do with fewer low-level clouds over the ocean because there's less sulfur in the uh shipping fuels and the sulfur th those particles act as cloud condensation nuclei generating low-level clouds. We're having fewer cloud. So the actual albido or reflectance um over the oceans and over the whole planet in fact has declined significantly. So the the the uh earth radiation imbalance is increasing and we're getting that more warming. Um we're also getting more more precipitation in the form of rain uh further north as as you know we get this polar amplification. The Arctic regions warming four, five, six times faster than the rest of the planet depending on what latitude you're at. So all of these things are combining to um stratify the ocean more. It's more layered. You get a warm freshwater cap on top of colder water. So, it reduces vertical mixing in the ocean. Um, which is very bad because, uh, you know, the ocean is a huge sink for carbon. The oceans absorb about 26% of human emissions every year.

[00:08:17]Um, and those numbers can be reduced with stratification. And this and of course all of these things are bad for overturning um the overturning circulation system.

[00:08:28]>> Yes. So now scientists have warned that with enough warming the AMO could weaken dramatically or even collapse and that often brings to mind the day after tomorrow where the world freezes over in a matter of days. But how accurate is that Hollywood scenario scientifically speaking?

[00:08:48]>> Yes. I I actually loved that movie when it when it came out. I watched it multiple times. The the premise of the movie is that the AOK collapses and that's a very real possibility. But of course, the movie um you know to capture audiences and be a Hollywood blockbuster, things have to happen, you know, very quickly. So the biggest error in the movie is the time scales. um you know an AOCH shutdown it wouldn't happen overnight or in a you know in a few days it would take um you know months you know to years to to fully uh play out.

[00:09:26]Um and also in the movie there were some of these super storms and freezing events that happened almost instantaneously and that's not real that's not how the the weather system works. uh but you know the movie does get across some very important concepts about the idea that the Amok can actually collapse and it would change society significantly. So that part part is true but the details are you know done for for Hollywood purposes.

[00:09:55]>> Okay. So I understand this is a more gradual process but if the AMOG were to undergo a major weakening or even a collapse, what could the consequences look like for the global climate system?

[00:10:09]>> Yes. So um so this is the key question.

[00:10:12]And so first of all, you know, the the time e even an amoch collapse that played out over over months to years. Um that's that's a that's a very small time in the whole scheme of of of uh you know, paleocclimate and human existence on the planet. So you know it's not but it's not going to be happening in a couple days, but the consequences are extremely severe. So basically you can think of uh you know a total reorganization of the climate. So some of the things that we think would happen with a shutdown uh the northern hemisphere um above 60° north would experience temperatures up to 7° Celsius colder than they are now uh especially in winter time. So many places, you know, Europe would go into a deep freeze in winters. Um, and it would also be a lot cooler in summers. The southern hemisphere, uh, would, you know, uh, going, uh, south of 60° south to Antarctica, the temperatures there would warm on average about 6° Celsius.

[00:11:25]Um, which because there'd be much less heat going into the northern hemisphere, it has to go somewhere. it wouldn't stay at the equator. It would go into the southern hemisphere.

[00:11:35]As a result, the tropical rain belts uh which are often known as the ITCZ, intertropical convergent zone, um that band of rain, uh near the equator would shift to the south. Think of that band as basically at the midpoint. The heat the heat northward of it and the heat southward of it is kind of balanced. So if you're if you're putting a lot less heat to the north and there's a lot more to the south, the the whole band would shift southward. So the regions that rely on that rainfall for crop growing, etc. would be out of luck as that rainfall belt shifted southward. The jet streams would completely reconfigure um if the ocean current systems completely refigured, which is re reconfigured, which is what we're talking about. So I I often talk about weather wilding, weather whiplashing, um weather weirding. Um you know the whiplashing going from one state to another state rapidly and you know the extreme weather effects around the planet would just greatly accelerate.

[00:12:44]And one of the biggest factors that would affect humanity is our ability to grow food. Because if you think about the major crop growing regions around the planet, they rely on a certain climate, a certain rainfall and heat um temperature regime throughout the year, you know, for planting and harvesting, etc. But if those uh if that those optimal climate conditions shifted somewhere else, we can't suddenly start growing food to where they've shifted because the soils haven't developed in those regions. So we're basically, you know, if the AOCH shut off, we're looking at global famine for sure. Um, we're looking at global food shortages.

[00:13:24]We're looking at difficulty for people to get proper water and everything else.

[00:13:29]So, so this is a there there'd be societal chaos. uh you know people often talk about you know uh talk about collapse of civilization and stuff but I think you know when people in the west talk about collapse of civilization I think that for the most part they exclude China because they don't understand China right China to many people in the west is just like a black hole or something and there's propaganda that's very you know anti-China in many places and people just don't understand I mean I I try to argue that China is doing more to try to address climate change than all the other countries in the world combined by the clean energy you know the solar the wind the batteries and all this technology. So, so basically, um, I think places need to start preparing and thinking about what will happen if the AOK will collapse because the the risk is extremely high that that it's going to collapse a lot earlier than than people can imagine even or even know about or even aware about.

[00:14:34]>> Yes. Aware of.

[00:14:35]>> Yes, that is true. And the whole planet will feel the impact. But Iceland has actually designated a potential AMO collapse as a national security concern.

[00:14:46]So does the North Atlantic region face a more direct and more severe threat compared to the rest of the world?

[00:14:54]>> I I think Iceland is very smart to do this. Um they have a lot of uh and and they're extremely worried about it because they're they're in basically the bullseye of of an AOK collapse, right?

[00:15:05]They're they're they're right there. If the AMO shuts off, they have immediate direct effects as does actually the United Kingdom, Ireland, Scandinavian countries, Greenland, parts of the coastal um coastal North America as well through through greatly increased sea level rise because if the Gulf Stream changes, you know, stops going northeast bringing all that heat, well, that hot water gets pushed up closer against the coastlines of the US and we can get over a meter sea level very quickly you know there with an AOC collapse um it's uh so you know we talk about um the the direct effects are hitting those countries I've mentioned but of course the globe faces the you know second order third order effects like the the glo global threats to to food supply etc are huge right but these aren't direct effects these are more you know secondary or tertiary uh effects of an am collapse I mean nobody gets away scot-free. Um, you know, but the UK, for example, with an AOK collapse, the sea ice in the winter would probably extend from the Arctic right down to to northern northern parts of the UK.

[00:16:18]>> So, everybody is going to be be affected.

[00:16:22]>> Okay? And and this this weakening can be irreversible, right? Because some studies suggest that once the AMO weakens past a certain point, it may not recover for centuries even if warming were reversed. So why is there such a tipping point?

[00:16:38]>> Yeah. So it's a highly nonlinear system.

[00:16:42]So it's got it exhibits a threshold behavior. So, if you you're okay and then you cross a tipping point or threshold, I like to talk to people. I I like to tell people start leaning back on your chair and then take the force off and you correct. But if you lean back to a certain point, right, the tipping point of your chair, it's either you fall off backwards off your chair or you go back to sitting on the chair, you know, in a stable configuration. And if you fall off your chair, you can't just move the chair up with yourself, right?

[00:17:17]You have to get off and straighten the chair like like the the the when you're going in one direction in this process, you can't reverse a direction. Like same thing if you're in a canoe and you're tipping it, you know, a lot I'm in Canada. Let me talk about canoes, right?

[00:17:33]If you're tipping a canoe, you know, you can correct and then you reach a certain point where it's, you know, it's very unstable. Um and then you can either tip the canoe and end up in the water or you can correct back. But when you get near that tipping point, um there is something called a critical slowing down. So the system loses its resilience and becomes kind of rigid. So basically it's like hysteresis. You know many engineers talk about hysteresis in materials depending on the magnetic and electric fields. Um and and if you go one way, if you increase a current, you can tip and then you can't come back. So basically the path that you follow, if you tip and and you suddenly take the the forces off and and try to go back and restore where you had, you're actually in a different state. So these these these systems like the AMO, they have bstability or even multi-stability.

[00:18:28]So bstability would just be an on state which is the existing state of the AMO and then an off state where it's no longer off and then there's you some some models and people argue it's multi-stable. You can have like a state where where it's weak or it's somewhere in between the two. Um and uh you know that but but basically the these systems and and if you go you know the ocean um it takes a lot of time for you know heat to move in the ocean and for and for fresh water to move in the ocean. So fresh water is accumulating in huge amounts in the far north and the water's warm. The am tips off to an off state.

[00:19:09]It takes a long time for that fresh water to spread and dissipate and become salty again. It takes a long time for the heat to leave. So the amoch would basically be off uh for you know hundreds of years perhaps even a thousand years. Um we know this from behavior of the am shutting off in during the in the paleo records something called Dansgard Osher oscillations and heinrich events as we were leaving the last ice age. So, we've seen this behavior from from from records, sediment records and isotope records. We know that it's happened in the past, and it looks like we're heading to that sort of thing again, unfortunately.

[00:19:50]>> Okay. But I think we've only had continuous monitoring of of this AMO since 2004, right? So, is 20 years of data enough to distinguish a permanent weakening from the natural multi variability?

[00:20:07]uh not not by itself because you know is it a permanent weakening because of forces or is it natural multi-deal variability right 20 years isn't enough I mean the data is actually we we have mored um boys mored instruments in the ocean at various latitudes to measure the water flow past them those are direct mored arrays uh the the most u important one is probably the 26 degree north so-called rapid array. Um, and uh, you know, you can measure 17 spur drops of flow. You know, a spur drop is is a is a million cubic meters a second of water flow, massive volume flow rates.

[00:20:51]You can measure the heat, 1.2 pedawatts of heat. A pedawatt 10 the 15 watts. Um, so we've got that data and those morrays only went in in 2004. We we can go back a about five years before then to something called the Argo floats. Uh which are floats that are they're autonomous floats that around the ocean.

[00:21:12]There's about 4,000 of them now. They move with the ocean currents. They measure temperature and salinity. But again, that's that. So this is direct instrumentation measurements, but we have a lot of indirect measurements um as well. We have um paleo data. Okay.

[00:21:30]So, we have paleo data, which is data from sediments and oxygen isotopes, and they show that the AMO is the weakest that it's been in 1,600 years. We also have models and ensembles of models where you force the system or you take the forcing off. So, that tells us a lot of information. Um, we also have indirect proxies.

[00:21:55]um you know other other methods of indirect measurement like for example sea level rise data off off uh off uh the the east coast of North America because when the AMO changes we know how how that will affect sea level. We have a lot of data from ice cores in the um in in in Greenland. We also have data from the ice cores in Antarctica that you know the Greenland cores go back to the last warm period. um you know they're good for they're but the the stuff the the ice cores in Antarctica go back 800,000 years more some of them even to 1.2 two um million years u whereas Greenland's you know the last 100,000 years or so. So we can combine all of this data and we can actually figure out what's happened before. You know the newer technologies are allowing us to get really good accurate data but we've had it's not that we didn't have any data before. It's just from multiple sources, but it's painting a picture of the AOK and that picture is becoming clearer as we get more and more observational data.

[00:23:02]>> Yeah. And also in terms of the future trends, uh the scientists are using climate models to project the future, but those projections can vary widely.

[00:23:12]So why is it so difficult to pin down in our simulations? And based on the evidence we already have, is there any emerging consensus on just how close we are to its collapse?

[00:23:27]>> Yeah. So, so the models um you know in general, so there's a recent paper I think we can talk about um you know in a minute that that's that just came out that's talking about it. It it it's actually model and observations and it has very dire news compared to the rest of the models. But the rest of the models basically there's a lot of variability because the amox density driven process and the density of the water of course it depends on um the temperatures um the mixing of the water.

[00:24:00]temperatures through the water column, it depends on the salt um at the surface and salt through the water column. And when we get, you know, if we get more ice melt off Greenland and it's fresher water and if we get more rainfall in that region, it's fresher water. If we got more river runoff, it's all fresher water, which makes the water lighter and less likely to sink down to the abyss.

[00:24:24]Um but then uh you know when you get sea ice formation uh about about half of the salt is is trapped in the ice and it eventually trickles out of the ice in in through brine pockets in the ice over four or five years. But basically when the ice is formed uh that uses you know a lot of the salt is rejected half of the salt is rejected and stays in the water that doesn't freeze under the ice. So that increases the saltiness, the salinity of that water, making it heavier, more likely to uh descend down. So what I'm saying is there's lots of different parameters the models are trying to look at. Um the grid size of the models is different. The complexity of the models is different. The runtimes of the models uh you know they're starting to incorporate more and more AI. So they are getting better over time. Um and uh but there is a lot of variability in in the models.

[00:25:23]>> Yeah. And some recent studies are suggesting that uh it may actually collapse earlier than we thought. And I think just now you mentioned the recent study uh I believe you were referring to this uh study in science advances that suggests uh the AMA could slow by more than 50% by the end of the century. and that is significantly more than many climate models had previously projected.

[00:25:49]Uh so can you walk us through his key findings?

[00:25:52]>> Yes. So um so the the key thing about this model is it uses the latest physics that we know like from from the on oceanography and behavior of the water and how the density is changing. It's um it uses uh it incorporates a lot more observations than the previous models.

[00:26:13]Um and it's um yeah, I mean it's showing it's arguing the probability of an AMO collapse by 2100 is 51% with an 8% variability. So it could be almost 60% or you know 43% or so. Um the basic the the models um so in when you have a collection of models and ensemble of models there are some models that are much more pessimistic than other models and it turns out that the more pessimistic models in those ensembles are are are being more and more um it's becoming there's more and more likely uh they're more and more likely to be accurate models of of of what's really happening. So this latest model is it's just more sophisticated um in terms of you know the grid size and the computing power behind it and the incorporation of observations and they're using some new techniques something called ridge regression on you know to to weigh the different models in the ensemble and you know there's something called CMIP 6 models which stands for climate model intercomparison project the sixth uh version so it's the most sophisticated models and the data will go going to the next uh sort of intergovernmental panel on climate change reports etc. So Stefan Ramsdorf I mentioned him as being one of the world lead you know he's one of the most knowledgeable scientists on AMO he's been looking at it for 35 years u and uh you know he's extremely worried with these new results >> are there any observable warning signs that can indicate whether the AOC is approaching a collapse or tipping point?

[00:27:55]Yes, there there are there are many. Um, so first thing to mention, remind people the amoch is the weakest in 1600 years.

[00:28:04]Okay, so this is from the paleo data and uh we know how it behaved coming out of the last ice age with these so-called Dangard Osher oscillations and Hinrich events where the AOCH shut off and restarted you know hundreds of years or thousand years later after it shut off.

[00:28:20]Um there's uh one of the most significant um worrying factors is there's been a decline in the observed freshwater transport at 34 degrees south in the South Atlantic. So the South Atlantic salinity has been uh you know has been increasing. So there's when when it crosses the equator and comes up uh northward into the North Atlantic um the water is there's less there there's less the characteristics of the water flow are different than they were before and this is thought to precede an AMO collapse by 1 to two decades. This is very recent research from 2026 also 2024. There's also a cold blob in the North Atlantic south of Greenland. So if the Gulf Stream actually changes position and doesn't go through this region south of Greenland, then the temperature anomaly will be negative. So it'll be a cold blob or global warming hole some people have called it. Um and that's an indication of the changing nature of the Gulf Stream the which is the AOCH which is a big part of the thermohalene circulation.

[00:29:29]There's um the Gulf Stream is also being noticed to be changing its position of flow off for example the you know on Cape Hatteris in the outer banks of North Carolina the Gulf Stream is runs fairly close to the coastline and the nature of it has been changing um it's in a different position it's shifted position which is something we would expect uh with an AMO collapse I've mentioned you know if the Gulf Stream is carrying water not not where it's presently going now. But if it's carrying less water northeast towards Europe, then there's more water from the Gulf Stream piling up along the US coast uh which would greatly warm the water off the US coast and could increase sea level r sea level by up to a meter if the AOC shut it shuts off. But we're seeing um huge rise in sea level off that particular region. Um, and also the statistics, uh, you can look at the statistics of the AOK flow rates and they're starting to be more variable.

[00:30:35]There's more excursions higher and lower. And also there's something called the critical slowing down which the response time or recovery rate when it deviates from from the stable pos the the the norm if you like is taking longer. And it's something in in math known as autocorrelation lag minus one.

[00:30:55]And this is meaning this is showing when you have I mentioned the canoe tipping.

[00:31:00]I mentioned the chair tipping. When you get to those tipping points um the system loses flexibility, the recovery rate decreases and the variability or excursions uh increase. So all these things are showing that the you know the am is slowing down. So when you combine all this evidence, it creates a pretty clear picture I think.

[00:31:22]>> So even with uncertainty about timing, does the risk level alone justify stronger policy action? And what exactly can be done?

[00:31:33]>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean there's only one answer to to one honest answer to that question, you know. I mean risk is the probability of occurrence times the consequences. So it's looking like the probability of occurrence is increasing.

[00:31:48]you know the risk the overall probability could still be quite small in any given year but it's increasing due to many factors but the consequences I've described you know the consequences are for example human ability to grow food to feed everybody on the planet right I mean you know an average temperature rise of plus 6° in the southern hemisphere and minus7 degree temperature drop Celsius in the northern hemisphere you know everything shifting rainfall patterns, jet streams, we're we're living on a different world essentially. So, you know, how how are we going to, you know, when climate shifts and we can no longer grow food where the soils are, you know, what do we do, right? So, anyway, the consequences are enormous, right? The con the consequences are, you know, huge for society, for humans and society on this planet. So, when you multiply a small number by a huge number, the risk, you know, that gives you the risk. So the risk is is really high.

[00:32:49]>> Yeah. And I know some scientists are even exploring some more radical geoengineering ideas like uh a proposal to damn the bearing straight between Alaska and Russia. I mean can you explain the logic behind this?

[00:33:04]>> Yeah, I mean this this of course you know is I would say is is is absolute nonsense. I mean, I love bold, you know, ideas, but this idea, I mean, the idea is that the um the salinity in the North Atlantic is about 36 PSU PSU, practical salinity units, it's weird. It's like it's part parts per thousand really. So, to convert 36 parts per thousand to 36, it's it's 3.6%, you know, parts per 100 is percentage. Um, in the Pacific, it's slightly it's slightly less salty. It's it's 34 PSU in the Pacific versus 36 in the Atlantic. So the idea is that some of the Pacific water going through the Bearing Straight and then eventually into the Atlantic uh bring some fresh water there which uh can can uh you know increase the probability of an AOK shut off right with the fresh water. So if you if you prevent that fresh water getting into the Arctic and crossing you know but I mean it's a ridiculous idea really. I mean, sure, bold ideas are needed. I mean, I I let me throw out a couple equally ridiculous bold ideas.

[00:34:13]Okay, just for fun. Okay. Um, you know what? What? We could we could uh nuke the desert. That would kick up dust into the atmosphere, block some sunlight, and cool the planet.

[00:34:25]>> You know, we could blow the top off of an active volcano and cause it to erupt.

[00:34:31]And when a volcano erupts, it puts sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere.

[00:34:35]And that cools the planet up to a degree or or two degrees even for 3 to 5 years.

[00:34:42]Right? So those sort of things to cool the planet that happens you know whenever a large volcano goes off that puts sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere we get a cooling. So those things are those any more ridiculous than um you know building a dam across the bearing straight? I don't think so. you know, the the thing that I think would really work is uh you know, is putting trying to increase the sink of the ocean for carbon. Um you know, sprinkle iron dust in the ocean, cause phytolanton blooms and absorb huge amounts of carbon, but you then you have to deal with ocean acidification. Anyway, there's lots of people can throw out lots of different ideas and people are getting desperate.

[00:35:20]So, some of the ideas are getting more and more uh you know, crazy sounding, right?

[00:35:25]>> Okay. So you doesn't believe in any of these geoengineering ideas solar.

[00:35:30]>> Well, no. I'm a I'm a So so what can we do, right? That's the big question. If if the AMO's going to shut off and once it does, you know, we're it we're we're stuck in that state. I I I've been talking for years about the three-legged bar stool is what I call it. Okay. Leg one is to slash fossil fuels and but we're not seeing that happen at all. leg two is um carbon dioxide removal and methane removal from the atmosphere. Um and I'm not talking about net zero because we're at 431 parts per million. Net zero, if we zeroed our emissions, we would just stabilize at very high CO2 levels in the atmosphere and that's too high. We're still going to have all this extreme weather and problems and we could still get an am shut off. So what I'm talking about is, you know, our human emissions are about 30 gigatons of of CO2 uh per year. Um so in order what we really need to do is draw down the CO2 levels back to something like 350 or 300 which we know are lead to a stable climate. And I think the most promising way to do this is um is is is to try to increase the amount of of CO2 that the ocean absorbs.

[00:36:51]So we need to understand where it you know and a slowing am going to reduce the amount of carbon captured by the ocean. But there are, you know, I've mentioned the Gulf Stream a lot spinning off. When you have water moving on the surface very fast, it draws water at the side towards it and you create eddies.

[00:37:10]Eddies that are counterclockwise and clockwise, small, you know, they're on the order of 100 kilometers or so in size. the eddies that move um clockwise in the northern hemisphere. If you take your fingers, the right-hand rule, move your fingers in a circle, your thumb points downward. That's a clockwise eddy in the northern hemisphere. There's something called ecman flow which moves water downwards. Um so if we created phytolanton blooms in those eddies then that those bloom th that carbon organic carbon would be drawn downwards and so there's a lot of work from eddies in the ocean. We don't understand enough about it. But I want to draw your attention to this paper um in science advances. Um it's by uh by all these Chinese academics. It's called oceanic uptake of CO2 enhanced by meoscale eddies. And I think it's a very key and important paper. I think I think that we have huge potential I believe for drawing down vast amounts of CO2 in the eddies of the oceans around the world. So we need to we need to look at that carefully. So that gave me a lot of hope when I was learning more about it uh recently.

[00:38:27]>> Yes, Paul Beckwith, thank you so much for joining us today.

[00:38:31]>> Well, thank you for having me.

[00:38:32]>> And that wraps up this edition of Climate Watch. You can find more episodes on your favorite podcast platforms. Just search for Climate Watch and hit subscribe. Don't forget to leave us a quick review or share it with a friend. You can also email us at [email protected] with your questions or feedback. And stay updated on the latest climate stories with our Substack newsletter, Climate Choices. I'm Jawing. Thank you so much for listening. See you next time.