The heat is on and is set to get worse, according to the WMO | DW News

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[00:00:01]Is the climate apocalypse here? Or can we still climb out of our hole? Well, we've got to stop digging first, then take a cold, hard look at the data, which is what we're going to do in a moment with an expert instead of letting the headlines drag us down. I know what you're used to reading. I write it. I'm a journalist. But I can also ask the questions you'd like to ask because it's going to take a lot of constructive thinking to put our planet back on track, especially if we're facing a climate apocalypse. Now, my team and I have been trolling through the comments sections on YouTube to put some of your questions to climate scientist Rob Jackson, a professor of Earth system science at Stanford University. Now, a new report is out by the UN's World Meteorological Organization. And it reads a little like a doomsday screenplay full of cataclysmic weather events that break one record after the next. But peppered among all the pessimism are a little ray of hope or a few rays of hope. We'll get to them later. First, the doom and gloom. Rob, expect a super El Nino later this year and for as early as next year to break the global temperature record. Have I summed up the report?

[00:01:18]I think so. It's not certain yet. It's not completely clear that a super El Nino will come. Um, we hope not because the last one occurred in 1997 and 98 and it wre sort of global havoc on our climate and economic systems.

[00:01:33]>> I remember covering that. It was um it was a harsh time. I was a rural radio reporter in outback Australia. The station manager wanted me to stop saying the word drought because advertising revenues were drying up. Farmers weren't buying new tractors. It was a super El Nino and and one of the most intense climate events in recorded history. How would a repeat of that affect us now?

[00:01:59]>> I think it would affect us similarly. At that time it the super El Nino killed one sixth of all coral reefs globally or at least caused them to bleach. So it was extremely devastating to ocean life.

[00:02:11]Um here in my home of California, we had record flooding and mudslides. Um, and yet there were droughts across Southeast Asia and pete fires that that filled the atmosphere with with carbon dioxide, disease outbreaks in Africa and South America. So I would expect the super Elnino to have uh consistently, you know, damaging consequences if it happens next year.

[00:02:33]>> And would it be worse than the one that we had back in 9798?

[00:02:38]>> I don't think we know yet, but it could be. The earth is hotter in general now than it was uh you know 25 30 years ago.

[00:02:45]So it might be. Yes. We'll see.

[00:02:47]>> So could it also be a a fact that the cycle itself is getting worse when it comes to these el ninos? That's something that a lot of people have been asking.

[00:03:00]>> I think many people in the scientific community are asking that. The problem is needing to answer that question now compared to waiting over a few more decades to see that what happens with that cycle. So I can't say with confidence now that the El Nino cycle is worsening or strengthening even but but it it may be but they don't happen very often you know every 3 to 5 years um in some cases a little longer in other other periods. So, it's really hard to say with confidence, but what's happening in the Pacific now suggests a very strong El Nino. Could be a super El Nino. I hope not. Okay. Dr. Leon Hermanson, he's the lead author of the report that I'm referring to. He said there's an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record breaking year. How do you see that?

[00:03:54]Well, I think the professor is linking uh the occurrence of El Nino with a breaking of temperature records. If you remember 2024, which was the first year where where the world was above the the 1.5C threshold for the for the year on average, that was a followup to an El Nino year that happened in 2023 and into 2024. So, when El Nino events happen, we tend to break global temperature records. And when super Elnino events happen, we tend to shatter them.

[00:04:24]>> Now, the rise in temperatures that are laid out in the Paris agreement, the 1 and a half degrees C and 2° refer to long-term warming sustained over an extended period typically assessed over 20 years. individual years I was reading with annual global mean temperatures exceeding these levels do not mean that the long-term temperature goals of the Paris agreement are out of reach. I is that one of these rays of light or or or glimmers of light that I was referring to at the beginning of this.

[00:05:02]It it is I would say it um when we when we talk about a 1.5 or two degree C threshold in the scientific world we're really talking about a decadal average or even a a two decadal average. So 2023 through 2025 was the first time we had three years that averaged over that 3year period the earth's temperature was 1.5 C hotter than normal. and um you know to have the really the really complete effects and understand the consequences that would have to happen for a longer period of time. But we're you know we're on the brink we're on the edge of of the 1.5c threshold if we're not already there and passing it.

[00:05:40]>> So what can we do about it? How do we dig ourselves out of this hole or how do we stop digging in the first place?

[00:05:49]Well, I think there's always a lot that we can do and I like many people try to remain optimistic and um and do what we can. Um I mean the most obvious thing is to is to spurn less fossil fuels. Um carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas. I spend a lot of my time studying methane emissions, which is the second most important greenhouse gas, but it's a lot stronger, a lot more potent than CO2, and it lasts less time in the atmosphere. So, it's only lasts about 10 years, takes a decade to clean itself from the atmosphere. So, I I work on reducing methane emissions. It's the only greenhouse gas where reductions today can help us reduce climate change in the next 10 or 20 years because it's super potent and short-lived.

[00:06:37]And is there progress being made on that front?

[00:06:41]>> There's some. We have the global methane pledge which was signed in has been signed by about 150 countries three or four years ago. It's not clear yet that we're truly making global progress to reduce methane emissions, but um there are good things happening there and I'm hopeful that uh that we may still be able to to reach that that pledge by 2030.

[00:07:04]>> So who's at fault? Who's holding us back when it comes to methane?

[00:07:10]>> Well, there are many people, companies, countries, sectors that are difficult to reduce emissions. One thing that makes methane hard is that most uh most methane emissions from human activities.

[00:07:24]And I should say that twothirds of all the methane entering the air now comes from things that we do as people. And the biggest one source is agriculture and especially cows, cowbs. And it's much harder to um talk about um fixing a climate crisis in the food sector when there are parts of the world where people don't have enough to eat than in the energy sector where many of these um reductions in in in methane leaks will will pay for themselves because companies can sell the gas that is leaking to the atmosphere. So it's a combination of um uh uh agriculture and um and energy based emissions that we need to tackle quickly. What are some hands-on examples that you can say a solution something that would bring us forward?

[00:08:12]>> Well, I think the most exciting um solution that's happening now is our ability to see large methane plumes from space. There are satellites now that effectively act like zoomin cameras. You know, they can find a point source in an oil and gas field in Texas or in Azerbaijan.

[00:08:30]um they can find a landfill or a wastewater treatment plant that's leaking more than it should. So we call these super emitters and there are satellites now that are looking around the earth all the time and we're finding these super emitters. In some cases 1% one in 100 facilities leak 50% of all the methane that's entering the air from that sector. So if we can find these and quench them quickly, that would be the best bang for our buck right now.

[00:08:56]>> Back to the UN climate report. One thing that stood out to me was Arctic temperatures. Can you go into a bit more detail there? Is that something that should have us worried?

[00:09:09]>> It should have us worried. And I think the report said that that they expect Arctic temperatures to be nearly 3° C above average over the next 5year period. Um, and it's concerning because the Arctic contains thousands of years of plant growth frozen in um, essentially Pete. And if you thaw that that carbon, um, there's there can be almost as much carbon in Pete around the world as there is in the atmosphere in total. So when that pete thaws, if it goes to the atmosphere, it goes as carbon dioxide or methane and it will um, accelerate warming in a much faster way than we can cope with.

[00:09:48]There's there's not evidence that that's happening yet, but it's very concerning if and when it starts.

[00:09:53]>> And what's going to happen to Arctic sea ice? I believe the report is also saying that there are going to be further reductions.

[00:10:03]What happens then?

[00:10:06]>> Yeah. Well, I mean, it's it's intuitive that temperatures get warmer and warmer and you expect the sea ice to shrink, especially in summer when it's its smallest. And it's pretty obvious what happens um intuitively, right? You go from a bright white surface that reflects sunlight back into the atmosphere and you replace that with a dark ocean surface that absorbs sunlight and warm things up. So there's a a positive reinforcement. More warming means less ice, which means more warming, which means less ice. And the Arctic has has warmed far faster than any other region on Earth. And it's dangerous what's happening up there. At the same time, are we going to see more superstorms when it comes to big chills?

[00:10:45]Uh the opposite basically of what you're talking about.

[00:10:50]>> I think we are already seeing uh more weather disasters. I don't know the the data for everywhere, but in here in the United States, the data are quite clear that we have um you know, 40 years ago, we had about $3 billion weather disasters a year, and now we have about 25 on average. And those are costing us an extra hundred billion dollars every year. That's being paid by taxpayers like me. And that's, you know, consistent with what we expect as temperatures warm and more water is evaporated into the air. rain and snow storms tend to to get bigger. Um so the evidence is already clear that weather disasters are increasing in frequency and intensity now.

[00:11:30]>> And uh apart from hot and cold, what about uh wet and dry?

[00:11:39]>> Yeah. Um wet and dry are as if not more important as as as cold and hot for our plants in agriculture for the interaction with wildfires. I mean, hot summer temperatures suck the moisture out of out of plants in the land and make things more likely to dry. They become tinder burn uh tinder dry to burn. So, some of our worst fire years are when we have unusually hot uh temperatures and they desiccate, they dry things.

[00:12:09]>> Is there a possibility that climate change will rise again to the top of public awareness? I mean, it was not that long ago. Um I I remember going to the World Economic Forum in Davos and it being at the top of the global risks uh reports that they uh issued for a couple of years at least. Uh the pandemic I know caused a standstill and climate protests then other events took over the like Trump's second term and uh quite a lot of political havoc wars. Uh but could we see public awareness change when it comes to climate change again?

[00:12:46]Well, I hope so. We certainly lost some of the focus and attention on climate.

[00:12:50]There's a lot going on in the world.

[00:12:51]The, you know, the war in Ukraine, what's happening in Iran and other places. These these these events are important. So, it's not surprising that that attention wanders, if you will. Um, what I hope people would remember is that um a climate solution is a clean energy solution. That helps us in the future, but it also helps us today in the sense that pollution from fossil fuels around the world kill one in every five people who die. And that's 10 million people dying senselessly today when clean energy is already available.

[00:13:22]So I would hope that listeners can make the connection between climate solutions are clean energy solutions. They will save lives today, not at some distant time in the future.

[00:13:33]>> Robert, are there any good aspects to climate change?

[00:13:39]Well, there are things. Yes, I would say um uh extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in some conditions helps crops grow more. Uh forests grow a little bit faster, but also does other things to those plants. It changes the the stoeometry, the uh the amount of nutrients. So, for crops, they grow faster, but they have less nutrients per per gram or or pound of mass. So it's um it's difficult. If you lived in Siberia or northern Canada, maybe warming might be beneficial for you as a farmer there.

[00:14:11]So it's not I can't say that every person everywhere is harmed by climate change, but on average um large-scale change is expensive for us to deal with individually and as societies. And most importantly, I think the poor suffer the most. Rich people will be able to cope the most. I live in a rich country. Um, but we have poor people here in the US and around the world. It's the poor that I worry about the most. They don't have the resources to adapt to climate change and they will pay the highest price literally and figuratively.

[00:14:43]>> Another thing I wanted to quiz you on um something that people are talking about online is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation system. AMO orc a massive system of ocean currents that acts as a global conveyor belt.

[00:14:59]transports warm surface water from the tropics toward the North Atlantic and sends cold, deep water south.

[00:15:06]It's a vital regulator of the Earth's climate. But how long can we depend on that?

[00:15:14]I think we don't know. First of all, I am not an ocean scientist, so I'm not in a position to, you know, to make statements about what will happen with with with AOK. Um I don't think anyone knows if and when it will um shut off or or slow. If it does, it will change things radically. That is why um you know people living in Norway and Sweden and Northern Europe are so much warmer than their compatriots across the Atlantic in Canada and northern North America where it's much colder for the same latitudes.

[00:15:44]Um and you know will it stop? Um and when will it stop? I don't know and I don't think we really know. But it will be it will change things immensely if it happens.

[00:15:56]>> One more thing I was reading in the comments section of an interview that you gave on YouTube. U one user wrote, "It's easier to turn a forest into a desert than a desert into a forest."

[00:16:08]What gives you hope that we can turn things around before we've reached the point of no return? I mean, some people do argue we've already reached the point of no return.

[00:16:18]>> Yeah. Well, my hope I mean I I grew up in a time when um clean air and clean water were bipartisan, you know, cross party priorities and I think I fundamentally believe that everyone on earth wants cleaner air and cleaner water for their kids. They want a better world for their kids. We don't agree on the path to get there. So, I would love to see that consensus come back. Um people realize the health benefits um of clean air and clean water. Um, climate solutions mean cleaner air and cleaner water. So, my hope is to um remind people that climate solutions will improve our lives today and and um I hope we act more quickly than we have been. We've certainly lost momentum in the last few years and and much of the blame for that falls in in my country, the United States. But never never give up hope. We can always make things better than they might otherwise be.

[00:17:12]Climate scientist Rob Jackson, thanks for breaking down the report and thanks for your hope.

[00:17:18]>> Thanks, Ben. Thank you for having me.

[00:17:20]I'm Ben Fisoulen. Let me know if you still feel overburdened by the climate crisis or if you've also got reason for hope. Thanks for watching.