Your NZ forecast through to King's Birthday Monday

Added: 2026-05-25

[00:00:09]C. Hello. It's Monday the 25th of May.

[00:00:11]I'm Philip Duncan and thanks for joining me. We've still got a lot of high pressure around the country at the moment. Firmly in place over New Zealand, although it is very slowly going to move eastwards as we head in towards the long weekend. At the moment though, the low pressure zones there are one there's one north of New Zealand with all the thunderstorms here that is not directly affecting us other than helping to encourage a few showers around the eastern side of Northland and Cormandal Peninsula. Mostly dry and sunny in many other regions as you go southwards. Although from the uh Canterbury area southwards, you do have more cloud again coming in from all of this system that's out to the west. And there is low pressure here over South Australia. And that's the one that's heading very slowly towards New Zealand for uh the long weekend. So to make sense of it, you can see here a lot of high pressure around New Zealand. All that cloud in between these two high pressure zones. Uh but around the northern part of the country, a very slight easterly wind coming through.

[00:01:06]Maybe a little stronger the further north you go. And that's due to the low pressure system up here interacting with high pressure. But light winds around many parts of New Zealand today thanks to all the high pressure that's around.

[00:01:17]And that's also producing some low cloud and morning fog here and there. So in the forecast on Tuesday, we've got high pressure building again from the west to southwest. Uh the rest of the high pressure is up here to the north extending out eastwards. So those showers mostly clear from the top of the North Island. They're just a few around the far north. And now we've got more of a west to southwest change coming in.

[00:01:41]That'll bring in a couple of showers around places like Tatanaki and Wanganooi down towards Manowatu and maybe some other areas here and there with that southerntherly flow. The coldest of the weather obviously where the polar boundary is coming in around Southland. Your temperatures take a drop overnight tonight and going into tomorrow. You've got some wet weather around it. very small bit of low pressure off the coast of southwesterland producing a wee bit of west coast rain and there'll be some patchy rain or showers that will move in with that southerntherly change and that's ahead of the high pressure zone.

[00:02:12]So Wednesday the high pressure system expands further across the country. Uh we've still got some west coast wet weather moving up the western side of the south island and one or two showers maybe from northern Hawks Bay to East Cape Corandal Peninsula northern parts of Oakland. Again, it's like what we saw over the weekends with some very large dry areas, but the risk of a shower is there. Otherwise, most places are pretty dry and the winds aren't very strong in most areas. Maybe the strongest wind might be just here in the very southeast corner of the South Island. By Thursday, not a great deal of change. Still got some west coast showers in the North Island, but the east coast ones disappear because of that west to southwesterly wind that is moving through. High pressure builds over on the western side of the South Island.

[00:02:57]That dries the skies out for most areas.

[00:02:59]But you can still see a few blue dots here. That's indicating a bit of cloud and maybe still a shower or two, one or two coming over into the east coast, but most of the South Island showers will be down around Stewart Island and coastal parts of Southland. It's still mostly dry. The further inland you go, it'll be completely dry. On Friday, high pressure moves in over the South Island. So, light winds, fog patches, frosty areas, the sort of forecast we've been getting used to lately. And in the North Island, again, a little return to to Northern Hawks Bay and East Cape getting a few showers caught up in that southerntherly wind that is moving in ahead of the high pressure zone that's crossing New Zealand. Dry with light winds in many other places and that means fog patches are also quite likely as we go towards the end of the week. On Saturday, the high is over the top of the North Island or at least just starting to move off the eastern side of it. Northeasterly winds come in mainly dry but you can see maybe the risk of a shower around Bay of Plenty Corandal Peninsula and from Oakland northwards there might also be an isolated shower or two otherwise it's dry dry for most of the South Island but you can see this subtropical wind developing and that's ahead of the low that's finally moving out of Australia very slowm moving because of the slowmoving nature of that high pressure zone. So on Sunday, the high finally slips off the country and we've got some chances of rain coming in to northern New Zealand. It's too far out to completely lock in because of the timing of that high. If it slows down a bit or expands a wee bit, that could push that rain or keep it further uh pushed out to see from us. But here on Sunday, the risk of some heavy downpours, maybe a thunderstorm or two because of the subtropical air flow that is now coming in. So, as we go through the long weekend, it's looking like it's going to get warmer in most places as those north to northwesterly winds develop or northeasterly at the top of the country, nor westerers and central areas and perhaps more so in the South Island. And as we go into Monday, King's birthday Monday, we've got the chance of some slowmoving areas of heavy rain or thunderstorms and showers as it moves on through. the low is quite large and that breaks up the rainbands and so you end up with some you know narrow areas of heavy rain or thunderstorms or showers that are sort of lined one after the other and then you can have dry spells all around it. So we'll need a couple more days to kind of confirm that and at the same time that's coming in now to the top of the South Island. So it's northern and sort of northwestern parts of the North Island, northern western parts of the South Island. Those are the areas most likely to see some rain as we go into the King's birthday day. And we've also got uh that low pressure zone moving in towards the South Island. So, there is a chance of some rain finally moving in to areas that perhaps need it.

[00:05:42]But this rain map only goes to Sunday.

[00:05:44]So, it only shows the beginning of some of that wet weather arriving. So, we'll still need a few more days to lock in exactly how much is coming. But, as you can see, many places are pretty dry this week. Even the areas with showers are in that, you know, 0 to 5 millimeter chance. So, you might not get a shower even if you have the risk of one. It's fairly isolated as we go through the week in a number of regions. So, that is all from me for today. Back again tomorrow, Tuesday, as we fine-tune the King's Birthday weekend weather. I'll see you then.