Ethiopia’s Geopolitical Awakening

Ajouté : 2026-05-19

[00:00:02][music] >> Ladies and gentlemen, a very warm welcome to the program. Today on the show we're going to be talking about the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa within the context of the national interest and geopolitical position of Ethiopia. We will also touch upon Ethiopia's pursuit to have access to the sea in a win-win and mutually beneficial manner. And to break it all down, I'm so honored to be joined by Dr. Galaab Tadesse, defense and security specialist and director of Bridge Research and Innovation.

[00:00:41]This is Addis Dialogue and I am your host Shiferaw Lakew. Do stay with us.

[00:00:49]>> [music] >> Thank you so much for coming to EBC and for your time, of course. I really, really appreciate it, sir.

[00:01:00]Thank you for having me.

[00:01:01]>> I think we should begin our conversation with Ethiopia's pursuit to have access to the sea. So, in this regard, how do you assess Ethiopia's uh pursuit to have access to the sea in a mutually beneficial manner with its coastal neighbors?

[00:01:16]Uh that is interesting question.

[00:01:19]Uh Ethiopian access Ethiopian interest uh for access to the sea is not something new.

[00:01:25]Uh like since the Eritrean independence in 1993, uh Ethiopia has now become landlocked and Ethiopia's uh major uh port access was through Djibouti. So, uh the Ethiopian government since then has some interest to diversify uh the the access to the sea in economical term. Uh we remember like the government want to have um Port of Sudan to buy some shares etc. But so this is not something new. Currently the Ethiopian government a its motivation and it its interest goes beyond getting access to the sea only from commercial purposes. It requests now a naval base which can be used for other security issues. One thing if you mention you know Ethiopia's interest to for access to the sea, we have to also remember it is not just something you know like historical historical factors or something concrete which makes us Ethiopia's Ethiopia to be landlocked. Some historical injustices some historical governments some historical misjudgments were you know where important to mention factors for what you know what's happening now.

[00:03:07]Just to mention that. That's a wonderful idea. Let's also take some time and talk about important strategic corridors like about El Mandeb. How could improved access to strategic corridors such as the Bab El Mandeb Strait beef up trade and investment while advancing security collaboration between landlocked countries and coastal states in the Horn of Africa. Bab El Mandeb is one of we say the choke pointers of strategic waterways in the world. We have eight in the world Strait of Malacca around Singapore then the Red Sea the Swiss Canal and Panama Canal and Strait of Hormuz which is the big issue and topic now.

[00:03:55]And down in the south, Cape of Good Hope. And in the northern Africa, Strait of Gibraltar. So, these are important and Strait of Turkey, also. They are important choke points. And what makes them uh strategic is not only the economic aspect, because like Bab-el-Mandeb, you know, Suez Canal, around 12 to 15% global trade way, you know, is there. But it is very important to to remember this area, Strait of Suez Canal, Bab-el-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden. This is very important because of security vulnerabilities.

[00:04:41]Arms race, you know, um Illegal arms trade is there. You know, uh Al-Shabaab and Islamic State is, you know, at the border of the Somalian peninsula.

[00:04:55]There is illegal narcotic trade. There is illegal human trafficking.

[00:05:02]So, it is very important. And armed robbery is there. So, this area, for example, Persian Georgia or the European peacekeeping mission is there. Around 600 European peacekeepers are in the area for you know, fighting this armed robberies or piracy. Also, make sure the arms embargo on Al-Shabaab is there. So, for all these reasons, Ethiopia's interest in this area is very important, because it is the the nearest waterway for Ethiopia and almost all our import and export uh through this waterway. So, I believe Ethiopia's uh quest to access to the sea and strategic involvement in this area is very important. And we can we can see it in two ways. The first one is economically, Ethiopia can be uh in you know, involved in this uh area with uh by by developing port as uh it can be through uh Somalia or Eritrea or currently there is a we have uh we're using the the Djibouti port. So, uh also uh Mombasa port and uh Sudan Port of Sudan is there. So, we can exploit this. And uh It is a bottleneck only to use the Port of Djibouti. That's for fact. So, Ethiopia has to diversify its access to the sea to this very important strategic uh waterway. And Ethiopia uh in security-wise has uh experienced working for peace in Somalia since 2006 uh I don't know uh fighting the Islamic Courts as and later through uh helping the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia. So, it is Ethiopia's both economic and security interest uh to uh focus and strategically involved in this waterway ways and choke point of Bab el Mandeb.

[00:07:19]Wonderful. I think we should also take some time and talk about the economic benefits and economic pursuits that Ethiopia should uh follow. Which cooperative economic models can potentially advance Ethiopia's national interest specifically when it comes to deepening regional integration as well as enhancing geopolitical stability, geopolitical economic integration in general. What are some of your thoughts in this regard?

[00:07:48]I cannot give you like a specific economic theory because I'm not an economist, but I can I can say something about security, but it's still related with the economic integration. So, uh most important you know strategy I believe a model I believe is uh cooperation and integrate you know integrated security is very important for Ethiopia to get this national interest in this region and regarding the sea access. This means uh we have to um plan and strategize a win-win strategy for both you know littoral state who have access to the sea and landlocked states in the region, namely like Ethiopia, the largest one, Uganda, and South Sudan.

[00:08:42]Currently, Uganda is using Tanzania and port of Mombasa of Kenya.

[00:08:48]Sudan South Sudan also use port of Sudan in the north and also Mombasa. Uh unfortunately, currently Sudan is not in a situation to accommodate you know for South Sudan or for Ethiopia. Even South Sudan was unable to export their oil through the pipeline through the port of Sudan, which is unfortunate. And maybe we'll discuss it later. So, and Ethiopia currently land 5% through Djibouti. But I believe uh we can diversify and strengthen our sea access including uh a base for our naval.

[00:09:35]Uh for example, uh Ethiopia is now uh able to generate clean hydropower. So, hydropower exchange for in um port use, sharing uh the the the facility of the port, building the port together. It can be with Eritrea, it can be with uh Djibouti, another port that Ethiopia can use uh exclusively, also Somalia or the de facto state Somaliland. So, that's also a possibility. So, we can share um port development is we can export our electricity and in return they they they can uh give us the access.

[00:10:18]Also, now Ethiopia is uh producing uh wheat and uh you know, agricultural products. So, that is uh an important uh strategy, I believe. Also, we can we can have uh a security arrangement. For example, Ethiopia can can um you know, contribute for naval security and even internal security because Ethiopia has experience in in in Somalia, for example. So, in exchange of that, Ethiopia will get an access and a naval base, but it means we have uh an agreement to protect uh you know, uh the naval area or uh some some other uh security guarantee for that state.

[00:11:05]So, this will be a win-win for both, but most importantly, this should be in a framework of like now Ethiopia is now the biggest state in the region. So, now they are going to conquer us, take us our land, and uh you know, not with uh with this connotation. So, it must be with um you know, uh with a motive and with an understanding of the Horn of Africa belongs to everyone and equally will be benefiting. So, this is what I believe that can be a way forward.

[00:11:40]>> Let's also talk about some of the roles to be played by regional blocks such as IGAD, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development. What are some of the roles that you see IGAD can play in building trust, in fostering regional integration, and also in helping mediation efforts across the Horn of Africa?

[00:11:59]Excellent question. Regarding to Ethiopia's sea of sea access, there was the the big tension happened between Ethiopian government and Mogadishu. So, the first mediator and initiator of the Ankara peace agreement that later the Ethiopian government and the Somali the Somalian government agreed was initiated by IGAD and the first meeting was even in Nairobi. So, IGAD is playing its role. Then later Turkey, a friend of both Ethiopia and Somalia, they concluded in Ankara. So, also another important mediation role we can mention about IGAD is the Pretoria agreement between Ethiopian federal government and TPLF.

[00:12:48]IGAD was one of the important actors in arranging and finalizing the Pretoria agreement.

[00:12:56]Also, IGAD arranged a mediation between the factions of Shanee OLA and some of the fighters mediated through IGAD.

[00:13:10]Also, they have been working in Amhara region with Fano. So, IGAD is playing even in the recent conflicts. Also, we have to remember the CPA, Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005 between Sudan and South Sudan. So, they they they are the one who make peaceful cessation of, uh, South Sudan.

[00:13:35]Uh, also, currently, they have been working with, uh, the quartet, which is Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Uganda, uh, for a peaceful solution and mediation for, uh, Sudan. So, I want to mention IGAD is a very important, uh, regional block, uh, which can mediate any tension, and even, uh, which can handle the issue of Ethiopian, uh, access to the sea coast, because IGAD has its, uh, peace and security division, which is headquartered in Addis Ababa. Also, IGAD has its, uh, uh, maritime security program, which is very important, which is aimed as to accommodate the maritime issues of the regional state, uh, eight member states.

[00:14:27]Uh, one important thing is the maritime issue, and the issue of sea is very important for IGAD, because 60% of IGAD member states border is sea, Red Sea, Bab el Mandeb, Gulf of Aden, and Indian Ocean. So, yeah, so this is very important for IGAD, and their their their aim is to facilitate any issues for, uh, landlocked, uh, states, Uganda, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. Also, for coastal states to provide them with, uh, security matters, uh, illegal fishing, uh, robbery, uh, armed robbery on the sea, uh, facilitating, uh, sea trade routes, etc. So, it is, I believe, the number one, uh, player should be IGAD, and I'm happy that you raised IGAD, because, uh, even Ethiopia when it talks to uh, it talks about as an Ethiopian citizens or government when we talk about our national interest, we have to believe, we have to make it in the framework of regional blocks which is all member states are represented there. It it is not for interest of any single member state. It is for all members. So through IGAD, we can achieve any national interest. And IGAD has been doing great in mediation efforts including one point I didn't mention before was how IGAD transformed Soma- Somalia from a failed state to now strong federal government.

[00:16:08]Even now IGAD changed its office from like supporting uh from supporting office in Somalia to an special uh envoy or an official IGAD representative office in Mogadishu just like other member states. So IGAD is you know ushered uh state building in South Sudan, state building in in Somalia. So I believe uh IGAD is playing an important role in the region.

[00:16:42]Interesting. Interesting. How can cross-border infrastructure and shared initiatives avert potential conflict risks in the Horn of Africa while at the same time advancing shared national interests?

[00:16:58]>> Thank you.

[00:16:59]I want to answer your question with the framework of IGAD also.

[00:17:03]Uh a very good uh infrastructure example uh in the IGAD region is uh the Lamu uh Kenya, South Sudan, and Ethiopia corridor which is an excellent uh initiative for regional integration, also um import and export trade.

[00:17:23]Uh obviously, there is African free trade you know agreement is already there. So, um I believe uh the mentality in the region should be I know, we have to create a regional integration, economic integration through common uh trade zones, trade roads, etc. to make it impossible to fight and to make it I don't know uh unworthy for any conflict and tension.

[00:17:57]So, if the regional states incorporated in trade, why why there will be almost no fight because nobody will be uh uh benefited. It is important to note that this region is an exception in African even in African continental uh term because you cannot find uh you know states fighting each other in other another part of Africa. Uh almost uh all um interstate wars uh wars between states are concentrated in the Horn of Africa.

[00:18:32]And it is the most even unsettled uh part of Africa. So, we have to uh treat it very carefully and very seriously uh and opposite to this uh you know interstate war and being volatile, you know, for example, the the people of the state uh the the region are living cross-border. The Somalis live in in Ethiopia, in Kenya, in Somalia, and in Djibouti. The Afar live in Djibouti, in in in Ethiopia, and in Eritrea. Uh and uh the people in South Sudan and Sudan common uh in Gambella. So, uh we have to see in these things and we have to think about infrastructures, for example, very important example is currently all because of this straight of almost the oil crisis.

[00:19:27]We have oil in Sudan, we have oil in in Kenya, we have oil in South Sudan and we are not importing from them. So, the regional states with the the umbrella of IGAD have to think about how pipeline oil pipelines coming from this region.

[00:19:46]Otherwise, you know, depending on really external actors for our economic etc. is completely wrong.

[00:19:55]So, I believe we have to make it impossible to fight by creating regional economic integration and IGAD has been doing this well, for example, Kenya-Moyale trade and they have frameworks and strategics strategies of free movement for cattle, you know, in pastoral area and free movement of people. This, I believe, creates integrated economy, which makes it conflict and tension almost negligible, which which is beneficial for everyone in the region. Dr. and ideas. I really really appreciate it, sir.

[00:20:42]Thank you.

[00:20:43]With that, we come to the end of today's deep dive into the geopolitics in the Horn of Africa. A huge thank you to my guest today for his perspectives and ideas and ladies and gentlemen, thank you as well for tuning in. Until next time, take care.

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