The Shift Coming to Europe's Heat Wave...

[00:00:00]The heat shifting more to the north.

[00:00:02]Thank you for joining me on Mr. Weather Man Europe. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields. It is Friday, the 19th of June, 2026 and we're seeing that heat shifting around. With that, we have a pattern change going on, a slight one, but that jet stream lifting up to the north. That means different areas will be baking.

[00:00:19]But with that said, while we have some hot pockets, others are a little bit cooler than average and we're watching out for the risk of thunderstorms. So, it is busy out there. Thank you for taking the time to subscribe to this weather community. It's awesome seeing the comments, all the countries connecting. Fantastic. Let's get a look at what we've got going on here. That pattern change. Early in June, we had that moisture really riding right through here. We still do, at least for some of us, but what's happening is as we continue deeper to the month, all of that action lifting to the north. Almost all of it. And with that, high pressure really building in and you see it here in the short term over the next few days. This as we head through today, again, watching some of that moisture.

[00:00:58]This is the storm track that jet stream, if you will. And watch how it's predominantly right here. Let me back away and get the heck out of the way.

[00:01:04]And you see as we work our way forward into next week, we get a little bump in that, lifting to the north. Now, some of us, Scotland, for example, parts of maybe Norway, we're going to still be running below average, but lifting up to the north, that means the heat builds more so. Portugal, Spain, back through France, watching over toward Hungary, over toward Czechia, it's really going to be building in. Back toward London, the heat building in. So, some new spots seeing that heat kind of shifting into your direction. So, let's cover that and what we could expect. This over the next 7 days. So, taking us through the weekend, deep into the next working week and you see these areas with some of these reds and whites, that's where we're seeing above average temperatures.

[00:01:44]And we'll see that over the next 7 days for most spots in Europe. Back toward parts of Norway, Sweden, Finland, northern sections. And even as we swing back toward near say Albania, Greece, watching over toward Turkey, a little bit below average. So, some of us, not a big difference, others a huge difference with these temperatures. And getting a look at kind of what we can expect as we go forward. Heating through the weekend for many of us, and then kind of peaking early next week. Let's take a look at that. Here's our time frame. This here is by Tuesday. Look at some of these numbers on Tuesday.

[00:02:16]Ireland, yeah, we're going to bump up in the temps. So, we have even even today in some spots. Uh it's not super substantial for the most part. I'll be watching your comments. Let me know. We get back toward London. There we go, 35° once we get into Tuesday. Scotland, though, kind of running at at about average. We swing over toward uh Amsterdam, Brussels, watching uh over toward Frankfurt. Uh some steamier weather, even lifting up toward uh Denmark, running above average with some of those temperatures. This is where we are way above average summer. We expect it hot, but we've got that heat wave. No doubt about it. I've been watching your comments coming out of Portugal, Spain.

[00:02:52]Uh watching over toward uh France, Italy. Look at some of these numbers, pressing 40°.

[00:02:59]Not just on Tuesday, but even over the next couple of days, through the weekend, all the way into at least uh the mid portion of the upcoming working week. And that'll include parts of Switzerland, Austria. Northern sections, though, not quite as much. Again, you see some of the uh blues around. So, always keeping it in perspective as you as you get to the north. We still have some of those cool pockets around, but running above average. Estonia, south through uh Belarus, uh Ukraine those above average temperatures. Germany, Poland, especially if you're more to the south, that's where we have those temperatures running above average. The heat is on, no doubt, for many. Now, you can see here, here's the 7-day temperature uh kind of anomaly. So, this is how we're above average or below average. And let me swing you around Europe. And you see how we're kind of close to average. Uh Scotland south as you get back toward Ireland. Maybe a little bit above, but this pocket right here, kind of coming out of Wales, back toward uh England, get over toward London. We're looking at some of those numbers, 5 6 7° above average. It is going to be so very hot. Pulling forward here, uh Portugal, Spain, we know it's hot this time of year, but these numbers, even some of these eights in here, that's eight 8° above average right through there.

[00:04:09]Portugal, 6 to 7. Uh you can see all of these spots really on the uh warm side, the hot side, I should say. And again, because it is prolonged, if you have any breathing issues, um if you happen to be sick uh through a heat wave, we know it's it's tough, right? If you don't have any uh kind of air to kind of cool down, uh these prolonged heat waves become a big issue. Watching France, where some numbers even popping out about 11 12° above average. I mentioned parts of Germany, uh Spain, uh excuse me, Germany, Poland, swinging to the south, uh Austria, Switzerland, these numbers uh 5 6 right through here, uh across much of the Alps running about anywhere from 3 to 5° above average. So, you get the idea. Some of these numbers are way above average. We get back toward Slovakia, Hungary. Watching over toward Croatia, uh 3 4 5°. A little bit more in some locations, uh Belarus back through uh Ukraine. But the more south we get, say we get toward uh Greece, and then back through Turkey, that's where the numbers running close to average or even below average in some areas. Swinging to the north, still running above average in many locations, but the more north you are or across across the coast back toward Norway, that's where temperatures are even running a little bit below average. But some of that warmth has shifted uh back to the north. We've seen that as that storm track bumps up just a little bit.

[00:05:31]Now, let's track that, and let's track some of those thunderstorms on the way.

[00:05:35]That could be quite aggressive. Here's what we got going on. Let me show you the big picture first. We've got some of those scattered thunderstorms. I want to zoom down because down the road, they're going to be even stronger, if not severe. But there is that moisture kind of riding in through here. But then that storm track shifts a little bit more to the north. That's what I was showing you earlier, right? So, a bit more to the north and that allows that deep kind of heat to lift more to the north. Not quite for everyone, but for a lot of us and that enhances the heat as well where we have it. And then we're watching out for some of those bigger thunderstorms that will be popping. Again, kind of few and far between with some of those storms, but they could be quite aggressive. So, let's get into all of that. Here are some of the showers as we get into a later today. Watching out for some of the rain around. Of course, if you got the rain, it's cool outside, right? And we're seeing that shifting toward Norway, Sweden by the time we get into a tomorrow. Here's Germany, Poland.

[00:06:25]Could get brushed by a couple thunderstorms. Watching over toward Belgium, Luxembourg. Here is a Czechia, the Netherlands are mainly dry on Sunday. Still some of those showers.

[00:06:34]Norway points to the north. Watching over toward Finland. And here's the next shot of rain. Instead of being here like this first one today, it's more to the north. That is that little shift, but a big difference with that coming out of Iceland. You could see again that moisture pulling across. Lifting to the north and that allows that heat to kind of surge up from the south and that's why different spots are getting into this heat wave as we go over the next several days. Now, watching out for some storms. Here's Portugal, Spain. Spain in particular near Andorra. And again, back toward Switzerland. Even Austria, some thunderstorms. One or two Kosovo, North Macedonia. Turkey, we're seeing some of those showers and thunderstorms that will be possible as we work our way into our Saturday. Most locations are dry.

[00:07:16]Ukraine back toward a Czechia. Small chance of a shower. One or two popping up in France. The heat, the big story.

[00:07:22]But as we work our way into the next working week, we get a better chance of storms. Serbia swinging all the way back through Italy, Spain, even Portugal.

[00:07:30]It's not for all of us, but you see right here, some of these could pack a punch with gusty downburst winds. If any storms do develop where you are, there's a lot of heat energy. So, we could get some gusty downburst winds out of some of these thunderstorms. Again, not widespread, but where we get those, North Macedonia, swinging back toward Croatia, Bosnia, watching parts of Italy. Some of the storms could be on the strong side. I'll be watching your comments as we watch out for that. So, with the storm track lifted to the north, Scotland will still for 5-day rain totals taking us into about a mid week, Tuesday and Wednesday of uh next week. Maybe about 25 mm of rain. Could get a little bit more in a few locations. Uh Dublin, maybe we get 10-15 mm of rain. London, though, uh we're not looking at nearly as much rain. Just getting scraped by a couple showers. The Netherlands, Belgium, watching Germany, Poland. Uh you can see Norway, though, up toward parts of Sweden. That's where we could have some spots upwards of 100 mm of some of the rain. Now, this in here is kind of the thunderstorm action, right? We don't have any big storm system moving in, no big blob of rain.

[00:08:35]But, we'll watch out for some downpours.

[00:08:37]And if you get some downpours or repeat downpours, we could have some spots over 75 mm of rain. And I mentioned those gusty downburst winds that will be a problem. Romania, we could get some of those uh stronger storms as well. Or at least a couple pop-up showers and storms as we work our way forward. So, that heat surging to the north, not for all of us, but a lot of us. Not just today, but through the weekend into early next week. That pattern is really locked in through the weekend and then potentially into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

[00:09:06]Overall, we're drier with those isolated storms. And monitoring that July pattern, watching that carefully. We may kind of bounce around with the numbers in July. And with that said, I do expect a super hot end of the summer as we get the influence of El Nino. We'll cover that together in upcoming videos. So, be uh be safe with some of the heat. I'll be going through your comments throughout the weekend. Have a really good and safe weekend ahead.