Exclusive: NATO Military Chair & Fmr Ukraine FM — Is This The Turning Point?

Added: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]Hello and welcome to this special Counterpoint interview on Al Arabiya English. I'm Melinda Liu Singapore coming to you from Singapore from the International Institute for Strategic Studies Shangri-La Dialogue. The Shangri-La Dialogue is one of the world's most keenly watched and high-profile defense summits. It brings together heads of state, ministers, military officials, and security analysts from more than 40 countries.

[00:00:29]Now, one global conflict that is always at the top of the agenda at any defense summit and it has been at this one is going to be the war in Ukraine. So, I have the pleasure of joining me here on Al Arabiya English, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister and non-resident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, uh Pavlo Klimkin. Thank you for being with us.

[00:00:52]>> Thanks for having me. Pleasure.

[00:00:54]>> Uh let's start with the most recent developments that we've seen in recent days.

[00:01:01]Um a drone, allegedly a Russian drone, hit a residential building in Romania.

[00:01:07]Should Europe be bracing for more direct spillover from this conflict?

[00:01:12]>> Definitely.

[00:01:14]Because uh you can't consider it as a sort of collateral damage.

[00:01:19]If you use like Russia all these drones in a very targeted way with clear sense of escalation now.

[00:01:30]And what's going on is escalation because uh the Russians badly wanted to sort it out over our heads and over Europe with the US administration talking about encouraged spirit, whatever.

[00:01:51]Now, they failed.

[00:01:53]They clearly understand uh they're stuck around uh the front line.

[00:01:59]>> Mhm.

[00:02:00]>> And uh it's a kind of escalation. They want to use to raise the stakes now.

[00:02:08]Because of this escalation, uh all kind of uh let's call it uh accidents, but it's not just coming out of nowhere.

[00:02:20]Because we had Poland.

[00:02:23]We had other countries with Russian drones. And now it's directly targeted not just a field somewhere around, but uh somewhere something where people live.

[00:02:38]>> Mhm.

[00:02:39]>> And now it's about people's life.

[00:02:42]For the uh European Union and NATO, it's a kind of dilemma because uh escalation is uh tricky to accept.

[00:02:51]But uh not to react now is not an answer anymore. It's about clear weakness.

[00:02:58]>> It's interesting you say that because uh we have done an interview with the NATO chair of uh the Military Committee, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, and we'll be bringing that to our audiences following your interview. Um he has said, as has uh the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, that NATO, and I quote, "stands ready to defend every inch of allied territory."

[00:03:24]Is it?

[00:03:26]And at what point does Europe expect NATO to stop talking about defending its territory and actually defend it?

[00:03:37]>> We talk a lot about Article 5.

[00:03:40]>> Mhm.

[00:03:41]>> But unfortunately, we rarely mention Article 4.

[00:03:46]And Article 4 is about perception.

[00:03:51]It's about threat perception and it's about coming together and discuss urgently how to react. And it's not about now and here. It's about the clear idea that what they're what the Russians have been doing is systemic in the sense of targeting Europe and NATO. It's about critical infrastructure. It's about drones. It's basically about cognitive warfare. It's all there. But now on the top of that it's a sort of sorry for my citizens normal warfare coming into Europe and targeting people directly. Not to react to that is about NATO's credibility and EU's credibility. So to get together to enact Article 4 and to come up with a clear response towards the Russians is fundamental now.

[00:04:55]>> By that are you saying if they don't react in a tangible way they will have lost credibility?

[00:05:03]>> Definitely. It's not about escalating their response, but it's about clear and bold response and telling the Russians what they can do under any circumstances and clearly outlining a reaction now and next time. Clearly. Not kind of going confidentially through back channels, which is also important, but clearly saying now it's about how we going to react. And if it comes next time, it going to be about our reaction and it going to be about raising the stakes like you have been trying to raise the stakes.

[00:05:52]I mean, escalation is not just about uh hardware. Escalation is about psycho.

[00:06:00]It is about understanding whether you are credible and whether you are bold enough in your next step. There is a fundamental rule in geopolitics, if you have a leverage you have to show it.

[00:06:15]If you uh have shown your leverage just use it.

[00:06:20]Otherwise, you don't have one. So, if NATO and EU don't uh show their leverages now, I mean, at least showing their leverage it could be pretty pretty challenging for their credibility, I would say.

[00:06:38]>> Mhm.

[00:06:39]Russia has signaled that it's preparing a sharp escalation in the war. It's warned of consistent and systemic missile attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. What do you read into that? Is that a genuine threat that this is a turning point or does it say to you that Russia is looking for a way to try and exert its leverage that perhaps it may not have?

[00:07:05]>> It's not what uh can come somewhere in the future. It's now.

[00:07:12]Just couple of days ago uh I came uh overnight to the Kyiv railway station from the city of Ivano-Frankivsk uh and there were strikes uh every couple of minutes.

[00:07:27]>> Mhm.

[00:07:28]>> It was one of the biggest strike on Kyiv. So, to talk about escalation, it's something which goes uh towards uh DC and European capitals. For us, this escalation is now. But first, Ukrainians are tough and resilient.

[00:07:53]I recall my own apartment over winter with plus seven. Plus seven is is is tough, I would say, you know, for but but just imagine how grandmas and grandpas sitting in in that in in this cold cold apartments, but still Ukrainians are pretty unique here.

[00:08:16]And second, yes, we've been fighting a kind of asymmetric fight, but we've been getting better in the sense of our striking capability, in the sense of our production, dispersed productions, and the Russians are fundamentally unable to target our dispersed productions.

[00:08:37]It's about new ways of combating, and it's about using AI. It's about using different kind of drones.

[00:08:44]On the Black Sea, who could have imagined four years ago that now we are in control of considerable part of Black Sea with the Russian Black Sea Fleet kind of stuck close to to the Russian coast. I mean, it was totally unimaginable. So, the whole idea of asymmetric deterrence is there.

[00:09:10]What we have shown is that if you fight for your existence, if you have a kind of horizontal society like us Ukrainians, people talking to each other, creating different sort of ecosystems, you you can win.

[00:09:32]Something fundamentally unimaginable.

[00:09:35]So, my point, we are not afraid of any escalation. And it's not about a sort of slogan.

[00:09:45]It's about our mentality. Yes, people are kind of tired of all this war. Yes, it's it's something which is which is inside you.

[00:09:57]But I've been browsing around the country a lot.

[00:10:03]I can tell you I never heard someone saying, "Look, now because we are tired, we have to give up." Or I never heard something, "No, I'm so afraid." Some people go to to a safe place during attacks. Some people don't.

[00:10:23]But no one saying he or she is afraid and in in this sense, I'm I'm I'm also personally very proud of of my fellow Ukrainians. So, any kind of threat now coming from Moscow is a sort of signal.

[00:10:41]We kind of failed to have a deal.

[00:10:46]All of the heads of Ukraine or all of over Europe. And now we we have to come up with something else. But the idea simply to come up with a sequence of threats is not what would work. Never ever.

[00:11:05]>> Well, then maybe that already answers my next question. Should Ukraine agree to freeze the conflict along its current front lines to allow for a long-term peace to be negotiated?

[00:11:21]>> Land is sacred for everybody.

[00:11:24]It's something which is in our DNA.

[00:11:27]With all our history, ancient history, medieval history.

[00:11:32]But what is at stake in this war?

[00:11:36]Is Russian control over Ukraine.

[00:11:39]Because the Russians believe we are not Ukrainians, we are kind of wrong Russians. No Ukrainian history, no Ukrainian language, no rational argument would work there. Because it's a mythology.

[00:11:54]At At this moment, we can't liberate all of our land.

[00:11:58]>> Mhm.

[00:11:59]>> It will stay as not just a political message, but inside inside everybody.

[00:12:09]But, it's not that we are not really for some sense of compromise. We understand current reality.

[00:12:17]But, we are not ready for giving up. It's We are not ready for a kind of capitulation which would give Russia control over Ukraine.

[00:12:29]Political control. Russia wants to limit our sovereignty. It's sovereignty what is at stake.

[00:12:36]Foreign policy, simply to deprive us of any freedom of decisions.

[00:12:43]Domestic policy, you can do this, you can do what. Territorial >> Mhm.

[00:12:49]>> sovereignty we have just discussed it.

[00:12:51]But, also our defense sovereignty.

[00:12:54]>> Mhm.

[00:12:55]>> Uh in 2022, they wanted to limit our defense capacity with just couple of thousands of people, no weapons, to make us totally defenseless.

[00:13:08]And we said, "No way."

[00:13:11]>> [snorts] >> So, what is at stake is not just this line with all kind of our commitments to that. What is at stake is our Ukraine.

[00:13:22]>> But, if the conflict is so protracted, the front lines may move slightly one way or the other, but you've said that Ukraine at this stage can't re-liberate all of the land that Russia has been able to take. So, what? Do we stay in this current situation indefinitely?

[00:13:42]>> No.

[00:13:43]I believe we will come to a sort of ceasefire.

[00:13:50]I can't speculate when it would come. I would laugh as as everyone in Ukraine to come at rather sooner than than later.

[00:14:04]But, where I have my doubt is a kind of what I would call peace agreement with Russia.

[00:14:14]Because we are galaxies, universes apart in what we want.

[00:14:22]We want our country as democratic and European reality. To join the European Union, to play our positive part. We don't want to define what the Russians want to do somewhere in Siberia. It's up to them.

[00:14:40]But, they want to define what we can can do in the future. And it's the whole asymmetry if they want to control us.

[00:14:50]Some people believe and it's a kind of Russian narrative, it's all about sort of uh efforts to come towards towards NATO.

[00:15:00]And in 2014, when they started occupying Crimea, we were also legally non-block country.

[00:15:11]So, it's for no way well. The whole stake here and the only issue which should be sorted out is where Ukraine belongs to and how we going to sort it out. So, only in this case, and it's also about European security, we can have the fundamental answer to this war.

[00:15:34]>> You say where does Ukraine belong? Who does it belong to? I guess that leads me then to a proposition, perhaps a suggestion by the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, that Ukraine could have symbolic EU accession, saying you could formally join but without the privileges of membership.

[00:15:58]Is that an opportunity or is that a trap?

[00:16:00]>> No, you are You [laughter] started teasing the hubs of German Chancellor.

[00:16:04]He's talking about a kind of phased approach.

[00:16:08]He's saying, "Look, we need to deliver on all the conditions. It takes time."

[00:16:14]And she's right.

[00:16:15]>> Yeah.

[00:16:16]>> I believe a kind of discount, let's call it discount, sorry for my cynicism here, is bad for us and bad for for the European Union.

[00:16:27]>> Why? Why is not symbolic membership better than no membership at all?

[00:16:31]>> real membership, because I did the European Union for kind of 25 years.

[00:16:38]He's talking not about kind of symbolic membership. He's talking about a sort of transitional reality where we can become part of different European institutions, but with our right to impact the decisions within the European Union limited for some time. Really transitional solution. Not I mean, Moscow would be so happy if such such an idea, >> [laughter] >> I mean, would be realized in some moment in time.

[00:17:17]>> So, what's this?

[00:17:17]>> you are interested in?

[00:17:19]>> What is not not possible? Never ever.

[00:17:23]Easy kind of idea where we can't have our security delivery for us and for the European Union. And everybody in Europe clearly understand a sort of security engagement, security partnership. And security solidarity is not possible without a full membership. And secondly, we have talked about credibility.

[00:17:54]Now, it's a kind of geo- geopolitical pressure on the European Union. European Union has to deliver on our membership.

[00:18:06]If the European Union says, "Okay, fine.

[00:18:09]It's a sort of transitional idea, and we don't know for how long it going to uh it going to stay."

[00:18:17]It's about European credibility. It's It's a very big point. Some people want to find a sort of oversimplified solution. I don't believe in uh oversimplified solution.

[00:18:30]>> Mhm.

[00:18:32]France's President Emmanuel Macron says that he's preparing to perhaps resume dialogue with uh Vladimir Putin. It would effectively end the EU's freeze on on Russian diplomacy.

[00:18:46]How do you assess that? Do you think it's time to reopen the diplomatic channels between the EU and Russia?

[00:18:55]>> For us, uh it's not uh kind of talking to uh to the Kremlin what is at stake.

[00:19:04]What is critical here is to talk from a position of strength.

[00:19:10]Just recall all kind of history of uh EU engagements with Russia.

[00:19:17]Whenever the EU started talking from a position of weakness, it failed.

[00:19:24]So, the EU has to talk to Russia. It's my point, but has to talk from a position of strength. Now, the Americans kind of really involved on other dimensions.

[00:19:40]Secondly, Europeans understanding the whole reality, also with the Russian stock around the frontline, has been changing. Whether it could be the best moment to start talking to Putin, if solidarity is there, if a clear mandate and really strong position is there, if Europe secure, I mean, is ready to secure that such talks won't be used as a sort of manipulation, I mean, European countries against each other, it would be a good way for Europe to get its credibility, but also to show that the European Union is ready to become a player. Now, if you ask people here whether European Union is a real player, many people would tell you, "Maybe it's a good reality. Maybe it's a positive one. We like the European Union, but whether European Union is a real geopolitical player? Not really."

[00:20:55]I believe it's an amazing chance for the European Union to raise the stakes, to show its credibility. And it's all coming together. European security architecture. Our membership in the European Union as part of that.

[00:21:13]And talking to Russia from a point of of strength. If the EU, I mean Europe because it's also about the Brits, it's also about Norwegians.

[00:21:25]It's also about Canadians maybe. I mean Europe is I mean let's call it wider Europe.

[00:21:33]It could be it could be big chance for Europe. And Europe must I mean I really mean must use it now.

[00:21:41]>> Mhm.

[00:21:43]We're out of time so I think that's a good point to to leave it on. This is a critical point for Europe.

[00:21:48]>> It's indeed a critical juncture for Europe. You're right.

[00:21:52]>> Let's see if they take your take your advice.

[00:21:56]>> They have to.

[00:21:58]>> Pavlo Klimkin, it's been such a pleasure to have you here on Al Arabiya English.

[00:22:02]Thank you for your time.

[00:22:03]>> Pleasure.

[00:22:03]>> Thank you.

[00:22:07]Hello and welcome to this special interview here on Counterpoints coming to you from the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. I'm Melinda Nucifora on Al Arabiya English and we're pleased to welcome back to Counterpoints Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, the chair of the NATO Military Committee. So thanks for being here.

[00:22:27]>> Thank you to you.

[00:22:28]>> Uh very quickly I know that this is a very busy summit for you.

[00:22:34]One of the most influential defense summits in the world so we won't take up too much of your time. Let's start with the current situation in Europe regarding the war in Ukraine.

[00:22:45]We've seen spillover into Romania and alleged Russian drone attack or strike in Romania. NATO has said that it's ready to defend every inch of allied territory.

[00:22:58]Is there a threshold or what is that threshold from when NATO stops saying it will defend its allies and when it feels the need to take action?

[00:23:07]>> Well, NATO is already taking action.

[00:23:10]It's reinforcing the eastern flank. We are considering to put some more effort there just to face this kind of this kind of event.

[00:23:22]This is an accident, of course. It is an It is not an action against us. It's not an attack. So, we also need to be able to manage I mean escalation and de-escalation. And this is the case. But, NATO is acting already. It's not just talking. We are doing action there. We are enforcing and we are expecting to do to be even more effective.

[00:23:44]>> Do you mentioned the eastern flank there? Would you anticipate needing to move more assets to the eastern flank?

[00:23:51]>> Yes, we will. We will. We will organize that and we'll coordinate that under secure authority. So, everything will be linked from the Baltic up to the North Black Sea. And that's basically it. And we are keeping on enforcing that and studying what are the best counter UAS asset we can use and we are employing them.

[00:24:13]>> The Secretary of Defense Pete Hoekstra made a keynote address here at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Saturday.

[00:24:23]It seemed like he had a pointed remark to European allies saying, "Those who believe they can keep taking a free ride on the generosity of American taxpayers, those days are over." How do you think NATO and its allies will interpret those comments?

[00:24:38]>> We are We are not in that case. We are doing our homework. So, we are not I mean living on anybody else's shoulder.

[00:24:50]We took a great great commitment in The Hague last year and we are expecting to have deliveries and that's will be a good point in the Ankara summit. So, we as a military uh expecting from Ankara confirm and delivery to the to what has been promised and committed in in the Hague last year.

[00:25:11]>> Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, thank you so much for taking a brief moment out of the busy uh summit here in Singapore to speak with Counter Points.

[00:25:19]Thanks so much, sir.

[00:25:20]>> [music] [music]