California Mag Ban Challenge Duncan v. Bonta May Get Accepted After All

本站添加: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]Hey everybody, how's it going? My name is Will and welcome to Copper Jacket TV.

[00:00:03]Hopefully everybody out there is doing well. So yesterday I made a video talking about how Duncan vibont and several other extremely important cases before the Supreme Court got conference last Friday and once again nothing. They were neither accepted nor denied.

[00:00:18]Instead, they were punted off to the next conference again. And compared to my previous Supreme Court videos, yesterday's video was a lot more doom and gloom. And that's because in my mind at least based off what happened with Snow and Ocean State from last year, I fully expected to see Duncan and and all of these others get denied by the court after months and months of relist and no other action. As a matter of fact, near the end of my video, I even made the prediction that uh we'd end up seeing these cases denied before the court went on summer recess. Well, as it turns out, I may have been completely wrong. And to be honest, I couldn't be any happier if I am. So today, we're going to talk about how Duncan and Vera Montes may actually get accepted by the Supreme Court after all, which would end semi-auto and mags nationwide. So stay tuned.

[00:01:18]Now, real quick. If you believe the Supreme Court needs to get out their asses and start treating the Second Amendment with the respect that it deserves, smash that thumbs up button and subscribe. It is the best way to support this channel and this type of content. So, thank you to everybody who likes and subscribes. So, let's go and talk about what's going on here. So, last night I'm relaxing. I'm watching some playoff hockey and I'm doom scrolling on X like I I typically do.

[00:01:41]And I came across a post from my buddy Kostas Morris who is the director of legal research and education for the Second Amendment Foundation. And his post starts with the caption, "I hesitate to get anyone's hopes up after last year's snoping." Well, obviously that piqued my interest. And he goes on to talk about a Scotas blog article that actually mentions Duncan, Vera Montes, Gators, Nagrv, Lamont, uh, and Grant V.

[00:02:06]Higgins by name. These are the cases that we talk about on this channel pretty much every single week and they are some of the most consequential second amendment cases to ever go before the Supreme Court challenging magazine bans and semi-autobans. So I decided to do my own research and found the complete article to see what they were saying. And when I finished it, I had a completely different outlook that I had uh in yesterday's doom and gloom video.

[00:02:33]Now before I show you what the Scotas blog article said that changed my mind.

[00:02:36]First, if you want to read the full article yourself, I'll go ahead and I'll link that down below. And secondly, the Scotas blog is written by lawyers, professors, and journalists whose sole focus is the Supreme Court. So, you could say that they are the preeminent go-to for Supreme Court information. So, here's a look at the article right here.

[00:02:55]This is by Adam Feldman. It's titled, "What cases might the court grant next?"

[00:03:01]And it says, "Looking across the petitions currently tracked on SCOTA's blogs uh designated petitions page, we can currently see some patterns about what types of cases the court might be interested in hearing in the 2026 2027 term. First, the relist numbers, that is cases considered at multiple conferences, which can mean the court is seriously considering taking these up."

[00:03:24]And just keep in mind that's something that I've always viewed as completely opposite are unusually high this term.

[00:03:31]Of the realistic cases, several have been re relisted eight or more times. A level of sustained conference attention that historically correlates strongly with an eventual grant. Again, based on uh you know what we saw with uh Snope last year, we've all kind of thought the exact opposite, right? Smith v. Scott about whether police officers use of force to restrain a suspect violated the fourth amendment leads at 17 relist a figure that almost never appears for petitions that are eventually denied.

[00:04:05]Second, the amount of second amendment cases is larger and more coordinated than anything we've seen since the post brewin term in which the court found that one had a right to carry a concealed firearm. uh began working through its downstream cases. Five petitions from different circuits involving both magazine capacity restrictions and quote assault style rifle bans are pending simultaneously.

[00:04:35]Now, if we skip the next paragraph, which has nothing to do with the Second Amendment, it says, "What follows works through these petitions, those carrying the strongest likelihood of being granted, and a separate look at the earlier stage petitions where the data is thinner, to try and get an understanding of what might be heard next term." Now, continues on to say, "The broadest story on the current docket is the accumulation of Second Amendment petitions. All pressing variations of the same question left open after the 2022 case of NYSRPAV Breuan. What categories of commonly owned firearms and accessories fall within the Second Amendment's protections? The strongest vehicle in this cluster based on the current data is Duncan v. Bont on whether states can ban large capacity magazines. Duncan has been relisted 11 times at the time of this article. uh has a confirmed onbunk disscent in the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit below, presents a genuine circuit split on magazine capacity restrictions, and is represented by Aaron Murphy of Clement and Murphy. The petition also carries a takings clause hook challenging the requirement that owners dis uh dispose the owners dispose themselves of lawfully acquired magazines without compensation. Five amicus briefs were filed at the cert stage across every dimension of the model weights. Duncan is a strong contender for cert. Now they don't stop there. They continue on with their next great contender which is Veramonte's V Cook County which presents the quote assault style rifle question directly whether the second amendment and 14th amendments protect the right to possess AR-15 platform rifles in common use. David Thompson of Cooper and Kirk represents the petitioner. The case has been relisted 11 times again at the time of this article and Scott's blog has featured it a case to watch. The US Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit issued the opinion below as a pure curium on June 2nd of 2025 with no disscent which while not a negative signal means the case lacks the additional cert indicator uh that a written descent would provide. What gives the petition its force is the acknowledged 4 to7 circuit split on assault weapon bans and the weight of the relist count. Now the article goes on to say Grant V. Higgins presents the same assault style rifle question from the US Court of Appeals for the sec second circuit also represented by Thompson and Cooper and Kirk and relisted six times at the time of this article. The two cases are direct companions. If the court grants Vermont, it will almost certainly hold grant pending the outcome in the former case or cons uh consolidate them. The large capacity magazine side of the cluster has two additional petitions, Gators and Nagr, which combines the, you know, quote, assault rifle and LCM questions, uh, in a single second circuit petition relisted six times. Now, this is the part that really got me here where it says the court is unlikely to grant all of these cases. Based on the relist clustering, the most plausible scenario is that the court grants one of the rifle cases and one of the magazine cases though which it selects is not something that the available data can resolve. So I think most people including myself truly feel especially after snow from last year that realists beyond a certain point are not good.

[00:08:16]They seem to signify that the court is just holding on until the end before they can deny or GVR the case. But the people who do nothing but watch the Supreme Court seem to disagree. They're saying that Duncan still has a chance of being accepted. And based on the fact that council uh for Duncan is of high quality and that there are splits and dissents, uh it's still likely to be accepted, which would be incredible. And the same for Vermont. They seem to think that both cases are at the top of the pecking order. And if they are accepted, then these other cases are more than likely going to be held pending the outcome of those two. So based on that Scotas blog article, there is still a chance to end MAG bands and semi-autobs nationwide. And I am praying that they are right. Uh there's honestly there's never been a time where I would love or I'd be happy to be more wrong. So anyway, after yesterday's video, I just wanted to make sure that I shared this so that people have the most complete and full picture possible. Obviously, nobody but the justices themselves actually truly know what's happening behind the scenes. So, we still have to wait, but I'll I'll take whatever good news we can get. And keep in mind, the next conference date isn't until May 14th. That's on a Thursday. And we won't know anything until after the weekend what they've decided to do with these cases until following May 18th. But uh the time should go pretty quick. So anyway, I wanted to let you all know about that. I want to thank you all very much for watching. I really do appreciate it. And if you enjoyed this video and you want to support the channel, please consider subscribing and hitting that thumbs up button. Really does help us out here a ton. So anyway, thank you all again. Have a great day.