Political polling data often contains significant limitations, including outdated collection methods and small sample sizes, which can lead to inaccurate predictions. Voters have agency and will not automatically transfer their support to other parties simply because a third option is available; they will vote for the candidate or party they genuinely prefer. This principle challenges the assumption that smaller parties' voters will simply shift to larger parties, which is a common misconception in political analysis.
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Deep Dive
Restore Britain Has The Media RattledAdded:
Nate, have you seen have you noticed that the legacy corporate mainstream media has suddenly seemed to realize that Restore exists? Have you seen this?
Have you heard about this?
>> I have. It's fascinating development, isn't it?
>> Yeah. They've suddenly obviously decided or the cabal of evil editors and owners that run these things. they've suddenly decided made the calculation that oh it's probably best at this point to actually recognize RER and restore uh for for a couple of different reasons from a couple of different angles. Some are like just attacking Restore.
Some seem to be almost almost backing them up because they're sort of fared derangement syndrome as such >> or some of them are sort of pro Andy Burnham some of them aren't. So, but either way, noticing that restore is actually a thing. So, again, go through that process, don't you? At first they ignore you, >> then they like ridicule you, then they attack you.
>> Okay.
>> Yeah. Then we win. So, we're into sort of the the ridiculing stroke attacking phase now. And it won't stop, will it?
It'll only get more and more and more.
It'll only ramp up more and more and more. Um, so, okay. Um, first article I sent you I think was from the mail man online. Was it that one? Yeah. Knife edge makerfield by election could be handed to Labour's Andy Burnham by Nigel Farage rival running against reform says polling guru John Curtis.
Um, yeah they noticed. They noticed. And uh, in fact the other one of the other articles I sent you or the two other ones were from uh, The Express. both sort of along the same line saying the same thing again that John Curtis for anyone doesn't know you you probably recognize him Nate he's like this old egghehead professor dude and his polling and his political predictions are usually very good to be fair he like you know he's he's one of their go-to men on on election nights because um he usually does call it just how it is okay so even John Curtis Professor John Curtis has noticed and all the Uh all the data they're going by on this is the stuff that says that Labor and Reform are polling up at around 40% a piece roughly and that restore is at about 7%. They're just going with that as the as the data. Now, I think we've already done a segment, haven't we? Here, on state politics.
State politics.
>> Uh, saying that that that data is probably like quite badly out.
>> Yeah. Yeah, we did. I think that released like two days ago at the time of recording this. Yeah. I mean, >> it was bad data. Um, because actually the date on the data I think was prior to when they began canvasing anyway, so it's old data.
>> Um, someone in the comments said that. I haven't actually verified that. So, that's an alleged. go look it up.
>> Um, but it was like 369 phrasing uh, pool, you know, of of of, you know, people asking like it's not it's not a broad spectrum. Like it's it's a really tiny data set to pull from. You can't that's nothing.
>> Yeah, >> that's quite literally like a block. Um, it's like a housing block, isn't it? I mean, that's nothing. It's not a >> It's not It's not broad. So ter terrible data set.
>> Yeah.
>> And then obviously doesn't go hand inhand with what other people have been seeing. Boots on the ground.
>> Yeah. The boots on the ground look like if if they're to be believed and you know who knows until the final day.
Proof's in the pudding on the final day.
That's the only real result, isn't it?
But um that maybe restore uh looking at more like 24 25%.
>> Right. Which puts them absolutely in the race to win. I mean absolutely in the race. It it is it is a three-h horse race nonetheless. All right. All these articles go with the fact that it's 7%.
At the moment. Yeah. And as you say, 360 or 370 whatever their polling size was.
That's small. Every morning on my breakfast show, I do a poll and it's always like a thousand odd votes. 1,200 votes. One time it was 2,200 votes. Just one.
>> We did one two weeks ago on our Sunday live show asking what people wanted us to call the uh the Sunday live stream and it was more than that. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. So, so okay, because they're going with the data that it's restore is at 7%. The angle they're all taking is that that could swing it to Burnham to King Bum first.
>> Um >> it's it's a terrible argument. Like the argument is predicated on restore stepping down and the people that would be voting that that 7% of restore voters would just instantly flip to reform it.
No, that's not how it works.
>> That's not how it works, right? You again that that's the position of luxury politics, the politics of old um you know the last couple of decades.
It's parties believing that they are that they own your vote and that you just will vote for them. No, no, no.
>> And and and the mainstream media is absolutely just wetting themselves now that they've realized that the public have realized they can just simply vote for what they want.
>> You know, because again, the the entire argument is predicated on the belief wrongly that restore voters will just vote for reform.
>> No. Why? Why? Why would they vote for why would they vote for beef mints when they can have filet minan?
>> Why would you do it?
>> You just wouldn't, would you? It's it's a complete waste of of, you know, a very important thing, your vote. You have to earn someone's vote.
>> Also, what I do find interesting >> and worthy of note, >> why why is the mainstream media backing up Nigel Farage largely?
>> Well, that's interesting, isn't it? If he's not if he's not containment, >> why are they suddenly backing him up in this?
>> Why does the mainstream media want Nigel Farage to win?
>> Because that's what all of this pretty much points to because not just these articles, you know, we've had days of articles now.
>> It's been it's been a whole coordinated effort.
Well, that that third link I sent you is again from the Express. I think it says look poll. Should restore Britain stand aside for reform in make a field bi-election from Katie Harris.
>> No, Katie.
>> Yeah. No, Katie. No. Yeah. No. Yeah. Go [ __ ] yourself. Um, yeah. No one No one owes No, they don't reform aren't owed government. people don't owe reform any seats like so okay there's there's all those sorts of arguments and um I just think that uh there's a whole number of reasons there's a whole number of reasons why the establishment from re from far on down from far through to the most establishment mouthpieces why they why they are genuinely I think genuinely rattled or scared by Restore because Restore like any party isn't perfect. But what it does represent, what it does seem to speak for is kind of normal people who want their country back a bit.
>> Yeah. People that have just seen the the the diabolical trajectory we're on.
It's leading toward it will will lead towards a sectarian nightmare and uh our demographic replacement in our one and only ancestral homeland and we become a hated and marginalized minority in our in our own land. And they don't want that and they're not scared anymore of like you know radio 4 calling you a racist or the BBC calling you a racist. Don't care about that anymore. We want our country back a little bit. So they're terrified of it.
It's sort of some sort of real incent it's like actual populism, right? Like an actual populism on some in some in some senses and they don't like that.
They're terrified of that. So So okay, I think I just hope that they and reform get it through their heads that Restore aren't going anywhere. We don't owe them anything. Yeah. Even if Resto's share of the vote is shown to have stolen it off of reform effectively, so what? So be it. Yeah, that's politics.
Yeah, that's the way the cookie crumbles. Oh well, if reform wanted to win it, they need to have won it on their own merits. And the other thing you said about how like all the votes that Restore might get, potentially get um are just stolen straight out of reform's pocket. No, I don't think so. I think there's loads I think loads of restore voters are people that for the last few years, even last few decades, just simply haven't voted at all. I think many of them will be disaffected to Labor voters.
Yeah, it doesn't necessarily follow at all. I would have thought I would put money on that they're just reform voters.
No, I don't think so. We'll see how it goes. If the polling and the various things I'm hearing about what's going on on the ground in real life in Makerfield, it may well be that Restore are looking at 25% of the vote. Perhaps more.
Perhaps more. It's not completely unreasonable. It's not completely insane that they could come second or even win it. If they come second or even a close third, that's a very, very good result for Restore. We'll see. We'll see. That's the nature of politics, isn't it? It is pretty It is pretty brutal that it comes down to to one thing, one night, one day of voting. But there it is. We shall see. We shall see on the 18th, shall we?
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