How Bad Is The Economic Impact On India? Maneesh Dangi Breaks It Down With NDTV Profit's Editors

本站添加: 2026-05-15

[00:00:11]Welcome. You're watching the editor's cut. I mean there is so much to unpack this week. Uh it's it started off with Prime Minister Modi's appeal. Yeah.

[00:00:21]>> People wondering how much they should panic what is happening and you've ended with the rupee at 96. So there is a gamut of things in the middle and I would say fewer um lights at the end of the tunnel than one would have hoped for.

[00:00:33]>> I think he's making sure that no one really travels outside because with a 96 forget you know the appeal anyone insane minds would say let me just stay put >> in and and travel within India. And there are so many places that you can go to to be fair. But having said that, it is the worst possible climax to the trading week with the 96 that we saw. In fact, towards the end of trade itself, right? 1 hour to go for the end of trade or less than that and you saw the 96 on the on the charts and there was a pretty big spike. So there's concern that and and we were speaking to currency traders and they were saying that from the global perspective the dollar was showing signs of strength in a situation where the sheump meet did not yield anything in the form of a move that could end perhaps the conflict in Iran.

[00:01:19]So I actually want to start with that uh and you know my take and wrap up for this week uh starts with a uh with a sheet trump meet and I've called it j Trump met she uh in typical because you know we Indians love to see everything in a Bollywood style but uh everyone who reads body language for a living would have been very excited by this because did you guys notice Trump's tone in Beijing on day one and isn't it much softer than it is in Washington an observation there is it telling you something about what that equation was in that meeting. Now, here's the problem and here is why after Trump has departed Beijing, you've seen everything go all right. Uh the aftermath of that meeting can go very right or very wrong. This is what I mean. Uh the fact that there's been an agreement or between uh the between the United States and China that there should be the opening of the trade of Hormos is a silver lining. But will it happen or not? We don't know. Plus, China's tough talk on Taiwan may not go down very well once Trump is back on Air Force One in back in Washington. So, one of two things can happen. You can either have an announcement over the weekend saying everything is sorted straight up hormone will now open ceasefire will extend or it can go into kinetic uh warfare once again plus will there be any reparte on Taiwan once Trump is back. The other big thing as as you know as far as I'm concerned is definitely that three rupee hike in petrol diesel.

[00:02:44]It's a drop in the ocean. I know politically there's already a human cry about it but it's a band-aid for a gaping wound in terms of the under recoveries that oil marketing companies are seeing and 90% of crude costs are still uh underreovered after this hike.

[00:03:02]The fact that the government is shielding the common man from steep hikes is an important political and economic move. But that three rupee hike is more of a trial balloon or is more coming. And then the other one of course folks is the carrot following the stick.

[00:03:18]If the 3 rupee hike is the stake, the gold uh import uh tightening is the stick, then is there a carrot where there could be some kind of tax easing, you want to incentivize people to put money in the markets, you want to incentivize foreign investors to come in, maybe uh some kind of loosening of taxation on bond issuances or even on equity. Yeah, I mean can't agree less you know with this because overall Tama from what you're saying as well what's happening is are we supposed to really >> Yeah. I was just wondering are you agreeing agreeing less I'll tell you why can't agree less >> can't agree less I >> I'll tell you why so you don't agree at all >> no so to okay so here you know just compare it to what happened in co >> initially everything seemed kind of all right and then there was that spurt which came in from prime minister Narendra Modi saying that you know what things are not looking good >> currently as well you're in a similar situation where initial conversations were that things are seeming all right.

[00:04:21]We're not in that bad a shape.

[00:04:22]>> Everyday life is not bothered.

[00:04:24]>> Exactly. And now suddenly that's come in where guys you have to change your routines. That's what you're talking about right now, right? Probably a work from home that could come in which is changing your routine. No travel probably that's changing it. So from all of this I think from everything that Tamana said as well. Yes, in terms of geopolitics there is a concern coming in there. You're talking about the West Asia conflict. You're talking about the maritime crisis. You have USChina relations as you mentioned as well and the Taiwan strait wherein you had the Beijing summit. You had the Taiwan militarilization that did come in. And from a global economic perspective, there is a fallout on the commodity surge, the rupee depreciation and a lot of corporates have been freezing hiring right now. So maybe there is no stoppage in terms of where anything else goes.

[00:05:14]There is a concern and panic over there.

[00:05:17]Now what is this actually meaning for the markets? One they're partially probably pricing in a postwar normaly is what I'm seeing and probably they are facing near-term consequences of the high crude prices. Now the next question is what happens to rate hikes. Now rate hikes probably it is inevitable in the absence of any oil price relief that it will be there. the RBI will have to look at it maybe if not in the next meeting in the midterms and the markets are not pricing in the growth inhibitors as well. So anything that comes in as a negative surprise is something which the markets are not pricing in. So if you talk about the equity outflows that is something which is overwhelming the debt inflows and I'm sure Alex will be able to add perspective to that front as well and that's where the markets are sensing panic and if you have to talk about earnings I mean you can't say the last quarter was bad your first half of FI27 probably is going to be in focus because margins will be under pressure in spite of the price hikes that do come in. So the question now here is where should an investor go because valuations are not seeming that expensive but you don't have visibility on what's happening next.

[00:06:26]>> Yeah, they're not cheap either and in fact uh that's part of what I want to bring to the table. Right. I I I we I was asking the team to pull together some data on dollar returns from the global standpoint and to say that they look bleak at this stage if you look at the one-year performance of the Indian equity markets compared with practically all of the major markets that would be a significant understatement because you look at at this juncture with rupee having depreciated as much as it has it's down 16% the nifty50 in dollar terms whereas the Dow has gained 18% the S&P 500 is up 27% % but I do want to point out something else which is that equity investors in India have continued to pour money in and retail investors in particular through the mutual fund route so it is at the end of the week that you saw a data come through and they remain robust the equity inflows in fact those equity inflows coming through to the extent of 38,410 cr rupees and that is X of NFOs the flexiact cap funds which is the diversified funds have seen inflows of 10,150 cr rupes. Small and midcap funds inflows of over 6,500 cr rupes and a further 15,000 cr rupes has come through in the way of index funds and ETFs. Now and finally SIP is coming through at 31,115 cr rup. So here's the thing though you've had a situation where March and April have seen sizable inflows by mutual fund investors.

[00:07:58]they've bought into the idea of buying the dip. But the problem is that you could see a protracted period of underperformance and I'm worried that you could have a situation where uh there could be more cancellation of SIP.

[00:08:14]So because if you look under the hood even in the month of April >> the last row on the camera.

[00:08:20]>> Exactly. So if you look under the hood and you look at the SIP numbers the folio numbers there was cancellation of over 51 lakh and to a lesser extent. So new folios of about 50 lakh. So new folios less than folios can >> there it is. And you know I I did not know that uh and it did not strike me that two funds actually had to stop inflows into their overseas funds.

[00:08:44]>> They have that's exactly the point that I was also making. So Axis as well as Invesco.

[00:08:48]>> Okay. There's there's our guest editor coming in Manish Dangi waiting for him to get into our studios. You'll see it on that shot. And you know I'm I'm waiting to hear from him how he looks at his and Manish of course very astute market voice but also someone who understands the economy so very well.

[00:09:05]There we have it. Manish, we're waiting for you on the set. Come on over uh as we have you live on uh editors cut and what we've been talking about and what I'm keen to understand uh from Manish among other things is that this this sort of bare grip that we're under.

[00:09:21]Welcome welcome Manish. Great to have your entry on air like that. Welcome to the editor's cut. You know, so we were talking about this bare grip that we are under right now. 109 crude, 96 rupee and appeals on one end. How is this all going to add up? Welcome.

[00:09:38]>> What a welcome.

[00:09:40]>> Any TV profit style?

[00:09:43]>> Where is the profit?

[00:09:45]>> That you want to tell us that is the question today.

[00:09:48]>> You know it's in some days in life not not losing is the profit.

[00:09:53]>> That's true.

[00:09:54]>> Yeah.

[00:09:55]>> Today was not one of those days for a lot of people >> or maybe a year or two has not been the year where you make money.

[00:10:00]>> Yeah, that's true. What what are you making of what's happening right now Manish?

[00:10:05]>> No, we are in a difficult place. Uh it's been building out over last last few months, quarters, maybe 2 years. Basically, you know, the the the reality is that the Chad JPT moment for the world was a bad moment for us. This is where it all began. in a in some sense the profit recovery or the good earning cycle not being in place the reason is CH GPT but on top of it now you're having to deal with these geopolitical stress which is you know one would argue was totally unknown unknown on your show many times we've argued that we are living in a world with 100 wars all over the world and it'll continue because the hgeiman which is US is no more there and now there every country is fighting for some territory or product. So, so in some sense we are in a little messy world.

[00:11:00]So, >> but things will pass.

[00:11:02]>> Things will pass. The question is when will they right Manish? The question is that maybe 30 or 30 days back a lot of people were thinking hih this is transitory look uh this conflict is not going to go beyond the month of May. At this point, we're well over 75 days into the conflict and the the worry is that with the prime minister making the call to tighten the belt and say, "Look, be careful on what you're consuming."

[00:11:28]Everyone's saying, "Now, look, you got to be careful. This conflict is going to go on for a while."

[00:11:33]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. First of all, you look uh uh little than than what he really is.

[00:11:41]>> Really usually said that 5 kilos more on you, >> you know. So the audience must take note of the fat must take note of this.

[00:11:52]>> We should thank the directors like >> I look thinner or fatter.

[00:11:56]>> You think you look >> you are actually fatter than what you look on a baby.

[00:12:00]>> That is the magic of the screen ladies and gentlemen. said you actually you have effectively ruined Alex's weekend.

[00:12:08]>> But you look as beautiful as you do.

[00:12:10]>> There you go. See, he he he knows who to who to say the right things to >> who is the chief editor.

[00:12:18]>> Okay, that brings me to the point that if the prime minister is telling you in such soft voice, the real pain is much higher. Right.

[00:12:26]>> That is the >> His hint is an alarm. M >> do you think Manish it's more like a 2022 situation where we faced and that's what we started off with as well that the pain was similar >> where then the next two years were beautiful >> if you have to look for even for the markets right >> yes yes >> do you think we are in that kind of a phase where probably 26 will be painful >> maybe >> if you have to compare that 27 28 will be something where >> you know investors who probably start building something from now will be in for money.

[00:13:01]>> No, surely it's possible is first of all just for the context you know it is much worse than 2022 >> because the uh the war is next door the supply is an issue. Uh it was a little bit of a uh you know issue of Europe then could perhaps translate into oil shock but very quickly it subsided.

[00:13:23]>> No but 2022 she's comparing to co are you comparing? No, she's compar comparing Ukraine.

[00:13:29]>> COVID is 2020.

[00:13:31]>> Okay. Yeah. Compared to 2022, this is definitely >> much worse. Much worse. Of course, compared to CO, it is not as bad. Uh, of course, but it is somewhat it has some signs of 2013.

[00:13:43]>> Okay.

[00:13:43]>> You know, so a sustained high crude, a sustained current higher current account deficit and then that led to currency blowing up. You know if you guys you may have forgotten but 44 45 rupee to a dollar suddenly was 65 68 >> I remember the FC >> and then a 3% rate hike.

[00:14:02]>> Yeah >> you know.

[00:14:03]>> Yeah yeah yeah >> you know we cannot forget the losses that we had to bear that day.

[00:14:07]>> Is that the next logical step? You know we were talking today and this this $96 hit as just as the markets were closing.

[00:14:14]What happens now? The RBI needs to come in to defend. Uh the government needs to come in to defend. Can they defend what happens next? something is.

[00:14:23]>> So the only you have to figure dollars in the world right now see the easiest dollar for us is the the foreigners investing in equity that's not coming.

[00:14:33]>> The other easy dollar is uh is that if we ourselves don't need much dollar because the crude is low but that's not a situation.

[00:14:40]>> So then we are a little bit of in a fix.

[00:14:41]So now we need expensive dollar and that expensive dollar is a is a bond dollar or FCNRB scheme related dollar that if RBI were to come and tell that look you know guys bring in dollar and I'll take care of the currency movement in 3 years time you'll be able to uh whatever you earn in INR is what you'll earn let's say in dollar >> you know so that actually will attract lot of money >> money >> so basically historically just a second historically every time we have had BOP crisis and last we had was 2013 13. You know, we had to come out with something very attractive uh for these uh >> what is the lowhanging fruit? I'm just going to say what everyone's thinking.

[00:15:20]Long-term capital gains tax.

[00:15:22]>> No way. It won't make a difference. No, no, no. Capital gain tax matter if there is a little bit of capital gain possible. No, no. Right now, we a little bit of a fix. We need see we are losing three 4 billion dollar every week. This is a very large number.

[00:15:37]We hope that uh you know what Modi G hush hushed in our year that no things will be fine but you should do these seven things but this is a moral suism right now but you know within within a day gold import duty was increased >> in 2 days time you know public servants are being told that 2 days you work from home >> in just about a week you are being going to be told that now work from on zoom >> you really think so >> no no no because every corporate has to has to be we all are citizens Right? If the prime minister is actually asking all of us to do something, you know, we must demonstrate, right?

[00:16:13]>> So his his his call for your duty is this only that work from home right now.

[00:16:18]>> By the way, media comes under essential services. So we'll still have to come.

[00:16:22]But yes, I get the broader message as far as >> you will not call me here in in >> No, unfortunately you won't have the the privilege.

[00:16:30]>> The metro is right outside Manish. You must come.

[00:16:33]>> It's not a like situation. No, it won't be. It won't be. All I'm saying, all I'm saying, we all need to play ball.

[00:16:39]>> Yeah, >> we all need to play ball. Okay, we are not sensationalizing the point that Mr. Modi has told all of us that be a little austere about it.

[00:16:47]>> Why can't we why can't we all do it? We It's a time to save a little bit of fuel, save a little bit of a gas.

[00:16:53]>> My my my very sincere question, suppose everyone is austere and does all of the things that prime minister has asked, will it really make a dent in the extent of problem we have? Because 109 crude and 63 $63 is not changing. No. Uh is $96 not changing?

[00:17:12]>> No. So 96 doesn't matter. 96 is just a way we are expressing a a level of stress like you know. So 96 is one way to make things expensive. So WBI was 8% yesterday. The wholesale inflation is 8%.

[00:17:28]>> You and I are experiencing consumer inflation which is 4%. So there's a division between what manufacturer is experiencing a factory gate 8%.

[00:17:37]>> But a consumer gate or shop get 4%. So someone is bearing this right now.

[00:17:43]>> Right? So basically 96 is a way to translate the global stress into Indian inflation.

[00:17:50]>> It can if it is 100 there's more inflation. That is one way. So who is going to bear this stress of$undred $110? You could have household bear it by way of inflation.

[00:18:01]>> Inflation. Yeah. You could have corporate bear it by way of margin.

[00:18:05]>> You could have government bear it by way of higher fiscal deficit. OMC's margins compress.

[00:18:11]>> They they have actually reduced the excise duty and the oil. So one of the actors has to bear >> likely to be a mix of all.

[00:18:18]>> Likely to be mix of all.

[00:18:20]>> Why did you call me? You have the answer.

[00:18:22]>> To hear you praise us. Manish obviously should know that.

[00:18:26]>> But okay. So just as we're facing problems other other countries everyone is facing.

[00:18:30]>> Yeah. So I mean you mentioned the wholesale price index but in the US >> US is not facing problem.

[00:18:35]>> No but they have the PPI that has gone up to 6% >> doesn't matter. See the country problem see US isn't facing problem at a country level because it produces its own oil >> right there is a term of trade adjustment that the oil producers are benefiting at the cost of the ones who are consumers. We as a country are facing problem because we are actually debiting uh our account and crediting UAE and Russian account. So as a country we are now we have to internally divide that hundred billion dollar bill has to be sent you have to be sent some bills you know and government has to be sent corporate have to be sent as you said correctly all of them we all will have to co-share it all of us to so austerity that he's talking of every time like I do not turn up here I will not go and have coffee downstairs and to that extent the coffee wallas actually volume will drop all of this actually is everything see this there's no free lunch here Now Mr. Modi is actually telling that no we are in a little bit of a stress right now. Let's shape up little bit. Now this has some cost. So the growth will get knocked off by 1 one and a half%. Currency has gotten knocked off already to a certain extent. Interest rates have risen from 6 20 30 to 7%.

[00:19:50]>> WPI is 8% therefore margin get knocked off. All of us are bearing some price.

[00:19:54]>> Do you think that the prices currently reflect that? Sorry Hel you want.

[00:19:58]>> No continue. Do do you think that prices reflect that in that generally you say when this kind of fear is there it should reflect in the prices. Do you see fear in the market right now?

[00:20:07]>> Uh who which price >> in in equity markets?

[00:20:10]>> Currency showing >> in equity markets.

[00:20:11]>> Currency. See the thing is listen you can have in the end if let's say if the currency blow up by another 10 buck okay the equity is a nominal real asset actually not sorry n not nominal real asset. earnings are going to in dollar terms are dropping.

[00:20:32]>> The equity indices are dropping every day in dollar terms but we can preserve in iron terms by letting the currency go. So that is what is happening. So from a foreigner standpoint, India is a clumsy asset right now because in dollar terms he's not made any return in last 4 5 years right but we can be happy that nifty choice you know because we are actually all investors in in INR terms >> now government has to ensure that you don't have option B to invest abroad which is why LRS constraints will come >> government will have to ensure that you don't travel to Vietnam so therefore the travel restrictions will Um government will ensure that you don't buy gold.

[00:21:13]Modi said they don't buy gold so much for one year because we are buying $70 billion of gold correct every year. So we need to spend less on gold. So all of we can preserve the thing is that even though it compares well with 2013 our internal macro is far better than 2013.

[00:21:29]External macro is as bad I have to admit but internal why we are not in a fragile five economy today is only because our fiscal is all right. Inflation has behaved well. government has actually has had a decent policy so far. So which is why we are not blowing up. We're not one of those fragile five countries.

[00:21:45]>> So basically little bit of austerity is something that will give us that levy to stay where we are right now.

[00:21:51]>> Yes. Yes.

[00:21:52]>> And and to add to that >> and hopefully hopefully this saga ends >> probably >> hopefully in 90 days the saga ends.

[00:21:59]>> To add to that you know an interesting point that you made is that our chat GPT moment is something which has not worked in our favor as well when you started off. I want to talk to you about that.

[00:22:07]How are you looking at it? Because people are talking about AI coming in as a benefit to a lot of corporates as well where you'll save money. But I think the way it's panning out right now is where it will be a phase where we will be constantly investing and maybe in the next 2 to 3 years or four years down the line is where we will actually start getting the benefits out of it.

[00:22:30]>> In that kind of a scenario as well, do you think that is something which is also pushing dollars out of the country?

[00:22:36]>> No. investing no spending. So every time you use a clawed $20 subscription, correct?

[00:22:43]>> You know, you're paying to someone out there.

[00:22:45]>> Correct.

[00:22:45]>> That's not investment. You may consider this as investment, but as a country, we are spending.

[00:22:50]>> It's spending.

[00:22:51]>> It's exactly like oil. So basically now to process data, we paying someone out there in New York or wherever it is.

[00:22:58]>> Okay. So to that extent even though at NDTV or my firm may be better off today because our accounting taxation audit everything is being done by all these chat bots but at a country level we are worse off because because we using the claude to displace a man who otherwise could have actually come and done his job. So, so basically at a aggregate level think of it like that you know think of it as a country we are worse off >> because of chat GPT because we are not we don't have the front just a second we are not we don't have a frontier lab >> but as users of chad GPT you and I are substantially better off so you know how paradox it sound that how can charge GPT be bad for India >> even when it is so good for me so charge GPT is creating a substantial consumer surplus in all our lives >> right we can get rights solutions without calling our doctor, without calling our accountant.

[00:23:57]>> But somehow paradoxically it is worse for the country at at least at a first order level. Eventually most probably I have been arguing that India also will be great beneficiary of all of this. But right now as it stands we are net losers.

[00:24:09]>> Sure. So >> at the point at the point when we start building our businesses and growing because of it that's when we become beneficiaries as well.

[00:24:18]>> Yeah. when when when on the infra layer there comes a lot of global demand to build build applications.

[00:24:25]>> Okay.

[00:24:26]>> Okay. That time hopefully our you know these tech guys will actually come forward and say that we'll deploy for you.

[00:24:33]>> Hopefully. I like the word hopefully.

[00:24:35]>> No no we will. No no I I am not pessimistic on India tech.

[00:24:38]>> You're not pessimistic.

[00:24:39]>> No no I I just do not buy this idea of you know this clumsy idea that India has completely lost the No. It is a frontier lab. It is a frontier tech. You can't you we don't have capacity. We are a relatively poorer country. We don't have capacity to build frontier models but we are absolutely phenomenal in in actually building the application layer on top of it which we will do >> but this is not our time right now.

[00:25:09]>> We will build all of this for the world.

[00:25:11]>> Yeah. Okay. So, so ju just the numbers that I've heard coming from Manish Dangi, I heard 110 in context of the rupee. All of this was possibly at no I no I'm only making that if if it were to be $110. No, I'm not saying 90 days for the war could end for the war and I heard one and a half% hit to GDP. I also heard in some other reference though 3% rise in interest rates all in different references. Are any of these possible situations?

[00:25:42]>> Do not say anything on camera.

[00:25:45]Like such bombastic comments is I've done I'm chat defeating all your comments. This is the executive summary of all of your comments. Don't worry Manish, no one.

[00:25:56]>> Okay. My point is that I don't think I Okay, just to contextualize step by step. I don't think um currency is is going to bleed meaningfully from here.

[00:26:08]Okay.

[00:26:08]>> Okay. That's number one. So right now I'm nullifying your >> 10 rupee comment.

[00:26:13]>> 10 rupee comment.

[00:26:16]>> I don't think uh Indian macro deserves a 3% lift in interest rates. I think the solution to India macro uh and the trouble that we are in is is a capital solution.

[00:26:29]We don't have to slow the growth dramatically. I think RBI and the Mandarins there understand that we need to bring dollars in in some form or other.

[00:26:40]>> Okay. Relying on crude to drop to save some money or FIA equity to come in is it's a fool's paradise right now. We need to get some bond solution out which is through FCNR which is coming in a month's time. anytime >> it's going to come and a large amount of 30450$50 billion dollar will come >> because of this and this will sell to a certain extent currency so beware of shorting INR right now is how I just the opposite of what you suggested >> beware of shorting INR but I'm also simultaneously telling that there's no freelance here >> the austerity the FCNR all of that has some price tag you're paying some of it will come in form of higher say CPI some of it will come in actually maybe the bond sort of uh rising a little bit more >> but I don't think the solution this time is like 2013 where you'll have to have a knee 3% rate hike I don't think you're going to head to rate hike right now but either chutam will do lots of things to ensure that things get solved but growth will take a little bit of a hit so don't think that no margins you know don't ask the next guy in the next show that margin this is part for the course the one and only Manish Dangi. No one can summarize it like him. Can give Chad GPT a run for his money. Thank you so much for coming in on the editors. Today has been a fantastic show. That's all the time we have. Uh so thank you for joining us. Tell us what you want to see on this show next guys and what you want us to discuss. We'll see you back here same time next week.