Larry C. Johnson: Iran Strikes American Jet — Crisis Deepens - Front America

Añadido: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]kind of bought into the whole peace ticket and ending the Ukraine war, ending the forever wars. I mean, he was bringing on Tulsi Gabbard. It's I thought it was a good reason to be opt optimistic as the alternative was essentially more Washington, more war, but um yeah, I guess it doesn't matter who you vote for, but except Trumpy appears to be Yeah, the rhetoric it's um yeah, it's quite concerning. uh he just gave a um announcement saying that Iran has until Tuesday to make a deal and then and this is a direct quote otherwise quote I am blowing up everything.

[00:00:41]I mean it's read read the rest of it too. I mean the I mean the language that he used was just unbelievable. uh you know, I want to get the uh let me see if I could find it and get the get the quote exactly right. He said um uh Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day all wrapped up in one in Iran. There will be nothing like it. And then quote, "Open the [ __ ] straight, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah." President Donald J. Trump.

[00:01:22]I go I mean people I woke up to this this morning went what in the I this is crazy territory.

[00:01:31]This is madness of King George. Um the I mean it it's like it's like that uh the scene there was a movie with George Clooney years ago and and uh I forget the name of the actor who played this lawyer who was representing this young woman who had been violated by a pharmaceutical company and in the midst of the deposition the lawyer starts taking off all of his clothes and screaming and ranting. That's what Donald Trump just did here. He just he might as well have just taken off his clothes and run around the White House outside naked. Uh it is the the the time for the 25th Amendment to be enacted has come. The Trump's cabinet needs to they need to say, "Okay, let's let's get him into a nice white coat that the arms wrap around the back. He can give himself a big hug and walk him out of the White House."

[00:02:28]he has completely got off the off the rails. Well, I guess this was always a risk of the Trump presidency that this whole strategy was always the same. That is do maximum pressure and then get a deal. Well, his maximum pressure on Iran was uh war and uh now he doesn't know how to get out of this. And I think this is why the panic has set in because uh he he can't stay. I mean this is going to result in disaster and also he can't leave because without the straight of our moose uh the whole region would be reshaped to Iran's advantage and it would be the also the end of his presidency. So >> correct >> he he really got himself trapped in this and it should have been predictable I think. I mean there was no real justification for this war. It's a low chance of success and of course extremely high risk especially linked to the lack of an exit strategy. Uh, again, very similar to a lot of these Forever Wars. Um, but how do you see things going with the ramp up? I mean, I I can see that he's going to blow up everything. That's possible. He might even go for Car Island. I mean, Iran's retaliation goes against the Gulf States, not directly against the US. So, it might be a price he's willing to pay.

[00:03:46]It's a bit like with the Europeans, they're willing to fight to the last Ukrainian. He's he might be willing to do the same with the Gulf States.

[00:03:53]>> Yeah. Uh but uh but but over the past few days, what what do you make of this?

[00:03:59]Um the planes being shot down, the rescue missions uh yeah, what what is your take away from this? Because the guys were supposed to be unimpeded. It was supposed to have air dominance.

[00:04:10]That's what he told everyone.

[00:04:12]So let's differentiate between what Trump wants to do and what the US military can do and what the US military is willing to do. I think you know those are three different areas. Um the the the chess pieces prior to Friday morning uh in Iran were all lined up for a US ground operation.

[00:04:39]Um, it may have involved something such as they I guess they had to found uh an airfield, an unused airfield that was um, you know, about 200 miles in Iran, 100 miles plus inside the Iranian border that was near Natans. So that they would they would go in there, land, and then uh helicopters would be refueled at that site and then would continue on with special operations forces to hit Natans and try to take control of enriched uranium that they believe might be there. Uh and I I say that I'm just I'm making that judgment based upon what I'm seeing. I'm not, nobody's feeding me information on this, but I think as sort of preparation for that operation, that's where this F-15 gets shot down.

[00:05:38]Now, all of a sudden, boom, the entire plan starts to fall apart uh or it has it has to be delayed. Um, one of the, you know, one of the guys I worked with for years, uh, he he was the last colonel to command Hapsock at Air Force Special Operations Command, uh, that was located up at Herbert Airfield in the, you know, the armpit of Florida. Uh, and he was involved in Vietnam in what they call Seesaw, combat search and rescue missions. And you know, a lot of what happened in those a pilot would get shot down and when you you know, you'd send out two or three different air back then, two or three different helicopters and such to try to affect a rescue. And more often than not, some of the rescuers get shot down. And so instead of losing just one person, you end up losing uh you know, six, 10 more. Well, that's exactly what happened on Friday.

[00:06:39]Um, now the Pentagon saying nobody else was killed. I I've personally I I think they're lying because there was there was one video that looked to be a C130 uh Hercules that that was hit in the air, caught on fire, and the fire would be could be explained because that C130 also carries a load of fuel that can be used to refuel helicopters.

[00:07:07]uh but it crashed and exploded. Um but what we do know is that the even according to the Pentagon that in addition to the F-15 uh an uh an an A10 Warthog, it was shot down. Pilot got out. Uh looks like an F they lost an F-16. They lost at least two Blackhawk helicopters or advanced they're called u pave hawks.

[00:07:36]um they lost two of those and then they admit they lost two C130s that were on the ground and stuck and so the Pentagon claims we blew them up. Well, you know, again, I think those two may have been even connected with that operation. But when you sit down at at to try to rescue one pilot, we lost at least five other air types of aircraft, airframes, fixed wing and rotary wing.

[00:08:03]Well, you know, it if you had that many losses, just one and they they were they were consumed. The US uh you know, the the command headquarters that McDill Air Force Base, the the SenCom headquarters, the the combined air operations center there, I think it's still up and functioning at Aloid Air Force Base in Cutler. um uh and and other locations were just you know all all hands on deck trying to find and locate that pilot because they didn't want him to be captured by Iran. Uh so that you know this is worried more about the the political optics you know that we can't oh we can't have Iran celebrating the capture of a US prisoner but in the course of it uh we lost let's say we lost close to uh half a billion dollars in aircraft yesterday something like that between all the different aircraft that went down uh just to save one guy you know this is the absurdity of it so if their if their plan is to put more aircraft into Iran now that they know that Iran's air defense is active. They have they have a loy loitering munition uh missile rocket, call it what you will, they launch it and then it's like a glider just sort of, you know, it's hovering around not until it hones in on a target and then boom. uh it's and it's not readily detected by the conventional means that the the aircraft US aircraft use to detect threats. So now they've got to take that into account. So Trump wants to launch a ground operation. Uh I'm not you know I don't know whether it is to take Car Island alone or take Car Island and then hit Natans or Busher one of the nuclear power plants with a special operations raid. maybe uh try to hit an underground missile factory in Keshan. You know, I don't know if it's one or all three, how ambitious ambitious it is, but he wants to do it.

[00:10:11]Um the military, I think right now, based upon the losses that they incurred on Friday are thinking back and saying, "I'm not sure we can do this." Because as part of their planning, they've got to assume, okay, we're going to lose 10% 20% of our airframes. Do we have enough seesar, you know, the combat search and rescue crews available to carry out that kind of mission if it unfolds? And I'd say the answer there would be no. I mean, it would be almost a nightmare of how many aircraft we'd have to put into the into the area. And that that again be vulnerable to getting getting more shot down.

[00:10:51]And then there's a question of are are the milit are the senior officers willing to do this? And I think there's growing doubts on that front. Uh the you know the early optimism and enthusiasm that was accompanied this mission when it when they when we launched the attack on February 28th that's gone.

[00:11:14]uh you know the uh the the sort of the excitement that fueled the particularly the younger guys um you know the the lieutenants and captains and the uh who are you know never really experienced anything like this. They're all jazzed up. Yeah, man. We're we get to go to war. And now all of a sudden the reality of war is starting to you know hit home.

[00:11:38]And uh we don't know we don't know how many were k again in this attempt to rescue this pilot. Uh I I I believe that there were probably at least six people killed and uh then several wounded maybe more than 10 wounded. So you know it's a pretty heavy price to pay for rescuing one pilot. And it gets back to the this this is now the debate goes back to the debate of are combat pilots you know the Tom Cruz Top Gun model. Does that even make sense anymore given the technological advances that have taken place and the capabilities to do remotely piloted aircraft where you don't actually need, you know, you could fly an F-35 remotely. You don't need a pilot in that. In fact, if you don't have a pilot in that, that plane can actually do more performance-wise without a pilot because a significant expense in these combat aircraft is to build in if life support systems because a a human body can all only stand so much geforce. I don't know at what level what the what the one point is where basically the shuts down the blood and the and and the body you just you can't live. You can't survive it. Whereas the aircraft without a human being, manic, you know, it can do a lot of maneuvering. And that's not just the US.

[00:12:58]That applies to the Russians and Chinese.

[00:13:01]So, but you know, here we got this system. It's still it's an anacronism of the 20th century. If you go down, we're going to come save you. And it's an honorable thing. And listen, the the PJs, the parachute, uh the the you know, the the the Air Force, the par rescuers, they they are terrific. Uh they are the incredible lot the pilots that are flying you know particular I think there was a lot of task force 160 pilots engaged of this uh you know a lot of very brave capable people being asked to do something incredibly stupid something u good can come out of this though I mean when the US had this success against Venezuela it fueled this hubris which led to the attack on on Iran Maybe you know some humbling is good before the US starts a war with Russia or China which you know might end the world. So um that being said of course uh this is already spiraling very quickly out of control and as you said optimism is largely gone which means either one can adjust to these realities or one can I guess restuck um you know the chairs on the Titanic and then it appears that that that might be something being done. Uh I'm not sure how you read this uh current purging of US generals. I saw a hearing with Pete Texf where he was asked how many do you know how many you fired and he didn't know apparently it was eight and then he was asked why what was the reason for it and he more or less uh yeah didn't answer this so what what do you make of this because uh it is it's an interesting time to begin to yeah purge your military leadership I'm not sure if it's related to a ground war or what Yeah, actually I I I don't think it is.

[00:14:59]Um I've been fortunate to have a a conversation with a friend of mine who's a he was a a retired uh he was a senior officer uh in in the joint special operations command arena. And um so uh you know what what what he what he shared with me and let me just uh just read this. He says um that that uh George Randy George the general who's the chief of staff of the army and Hodney uh were glorified administrative clerks nothing else. They're not war fighters at all. Zero real influence in Iran. Both are big-time militaryindustrial corporation supporters. Both are Obama Biden appointees. both are responsible for force development and new weapons fielding since the Ukraine and and and Azeri wars complete failure over four years. The best they could do is say it is possible to shorten off the shelf and new technology for drone warfare in three years. Well, he said, but but basically uh none none of these guys that were fired, the chaplain uh Hodney uh and Randy George, they're not at all in the chain of command for operational decisions relative to the war in Iran.

[00:16:24]They're they're not in a position to be asked to deploy forces to support an operation.

[00:16:31]Now, that doesn't mean that they uh they did not voice a a strong disapproval.

[00:16:39]You know, that that's all that's possible. But I I I would feel more comfortable reaching that judgment if since they resigned or have given up their jobs that one of them would have come out and spoken out. Um instead, I think more more of what we're seeing with this is it's a political purge. uh Hex Seth and Trump, they're going after minorities, you know, they're going after black women, black men. I mean, it's it really comes off as a racist tent. They're there's they're assuming that these people had these positions for because of DEI.

[00:17:12]Maybe they did, maybe they didn't. But what what this this this continues a trend that started really in earnest under Barack Obama of politicization of the senior military ranks that you want people that are loyal to the president.

[00:17:34]But you know when they take a they their oath is sworn to uphold, protect and defend the Constitution, not the political career of Barack Obama, Joe Biden or Donald Trump, but instead that's what it's become that uh you know, we saw it we saw it back under under uh Obama when they when they went after General Stanley Mcristel. And the irony there is Mcristel is just a he's sort of a died in the wool Democrat.

[00:18:03]very supportive of the the kind of policies that Obama was pursuing. But, you know, he got got accused of having said something unkind about Obama. So, this is when you start changing military leadership because uh you know, number one, the military leaders shouldn't be out in public making any kind of public statement about policy. They're their job is to come up with and lay out military strategy and advise the president on what the appropriate courses of action are. But if given an order to do something that they feel is wrong, immoral, illegal, resign. Resign in protest. You can do that. Uh but but none have done that over the years. And so so what we've got is sort of the creation of a Ptorian guard where you get rid of the old guard that was loyal to Joe Biden and you bring in new guys who are going to be loyal to Donald Trump. And I don't I don't want anybody in leadership who's loyal to one guy or the other. I want someone who's going to uphold the the the damn Constitution.

[00:19:10]And that's what so what we're seeing on going on here is more of a political purge. I think it's not directly connected to the war.

[00:19:19]>> Okay. Well, I guess that's uh good, I guess, to some extent. Well, uh so well, you mentioned uh yeah, the problem with the United States uh well directly with Iran that is he can't he can't um you know leave without the straight of moose open. He can't open it by force. So Trump is left with now threatening to destroy the country, bring it back to the stone age unless or blow up everything in his words unless they do as they want. Uh but as the foreign minister of Iran said uh you know humbling or disciplining America, it's uh it's something they won't have an opportunity to do again. Uh they can rebuild the bridges and everything. Um but also I think the leading concern for them is that uh if this can be seen as success for the US then the US will be back to finish the job later. Uh so but so the US is in a dire strait. Uh of course the Iranians are suffering greatly too. But what do we know about uh the Israelis here though because there's it's very tight control and information coming out. they put a lot of restrictions and the western countries at least their media very obediently follow this. Uh so but still sometimes we see some pictures coming out and uh you know they're not untouched either. So >> yeah they're take they're taking serious damage. Yeah.

[00:20:42]>> Yeah.

[00:20:42]>> Well, what do we know?

[00:20:45]Um we we know that uh Iran has been targeting now their oil refinery.

[00:20:53]Uh they've essentially shut down the port at Hifa um and Tel Aviv. Uh they have hit um targets in and around Deona, the nuclear uh reactor, the site where the most most folks believe are the they keep their nuclear weapons. Uh so um and then I just got a before we came on air I just got a another heads up from somebody who follows this that apparently an Iranian missile just hit a a major building in Hifa and that building has collapsed and apparently there were some key Israeli military political figures in that building. So, um, Israel's going out of its way to try to pretend that nothing's happening.

[00:21:46]But what information does come out, you're beginning to see uh you know videos where they go into the subways in Tel Aviv and people people have actually set up little tents on the subway platforms because they're spending so much time uh in these uh in these bomb shelters that uh they don't have time, you know, to to live above ground very easily. So, and it's uh I Is Israel by virtue of its size, it's it's a very small country and and and and population-wise, it doesn't have a lot.

[00:22:23]Um they've uh they've now run into grave difficulty with their offensive in southern Lebanon. The Hezbollah is inflicting tremendous losses on it, both in terms of machinery as well as personnel.

[00:22:40]and Hezbollah now has FPV uh drones that are being that are fiber optic. So they, you know, they can't they're not subject to the normal detection and interference of conventional drones. They haven't they didn't have that back in 2006. So on top of, you know, RPGs and other other systems. Uh, and you know, it wouldn't surprise me that they've got some advanced US equipment courtesy of the Ukrainians. You know, the the weapons that have been stolen out of the large s of the US have made its way into the hands of Hezbollah.

[00:23:20]>> Yeah. Um I think the their troop levels in uh Israel is really barely heal for them because they're not um there's no lack of political will it seems and they get a lot of weapons which they need but it's mobilizing the required troops.

[00:23:35]I've seen some comments from the head of IDF as well saying that the yeah that the IDF could collapse on itself >> if they don't resolve the manpower issue. So given this, it's a bit strange they choose now to discuss the re well occupying Lebanon given that this will require a lot of troops. Uh yeah, but but beyond this though, I' I've also heard now that um well there's claims by um Joe Kent at least that Israel is uh deliberately attacking and killing the people who will negotiate on the Iranian side with the United States.

[00:24:12]>> Correct. This is um >> well I'm just wondering to what how do you make sense of this because if the the more the US is humiliated in this war the again the longer goes on the more the US will be humiliated this will have a backlash within the US I mean that is the people rising up saying why do we allow the Israelis to pull us into these wars and uh and uh it just seems like this isn't really in Israel's interest to to put the US in such a vulnerable position.

[00:24:45]So, and also the US could get be chased out of the region unless it gets a proper deal. So, how do you make sense of this?

[00:24:52]>> Yeah. Well, um there there was no no thought given to a strategy and then coming up with a plan to implement said strategy. Uh it's it's it's more like it's it's feelings, it's emotion.

[00:25:10]uh Israel is guided by this extremist Zionist mentality right now. Now BB Netanyahu is not a you know he's really not a believer. He's just he's just going along with it because it's politically convenient at this time. But the people like the Bengavir and the bezelmotric they are true believers on this and they believe in in fact what they're trying to do is create the conditions that were in which the it will put the the the Jewish people in danger of being exterminated so that the Messiah will return.

[00:25:53]I mean it is this it is this insane ridiculous theological crap but they really believe it. So they're they are trying their best to manufacture Armageddon in order that the Messiah will come to save them and then and then saving them will destroy all the Amalecch, finish the destruction of the evil Gentiles. Get rid of those Christians and Muslims. That's really what it's all about in their mind. Uh so we can't dismiss and or dismiss that as a as a factor. We can't uh ignore it and pretend that it doesn't matter. It absolutely does matter. But then then you confront the reality and as you pointed out uh the Israeli military it's a reserve army and it really was modeled uh after u if you will a little bit a little after the Soviet army in some aspects because the Soviets never had a concept of a strong non-commissioned officer core. And when we're talking non-commissioned officers, we're talking basically sergeants, you know, whether it's a staff sergeant, sergeant major, you know, senior senior enlisted personnel who've been in the army for, you know, 10 years or more.

[00:27:16]And uh, you know, they by virtue of being had that longevity, they learned a thing or two about how to survive both bureaucratically and in combat if necessary. Um but and and what happens in when new officers come, you come in, you got a lieutenant who shows up who's like 22 years old, okay? Got just got out of West Point, graduated college, don't know anything. Uh and then you know that that's where they start to get indoctrinated and they're usually with company like in the US Army with a staff sergeant who's 30 years old. So, this 22-year-old is accompanied by a 32-year-old man and is able and if if that young officer is smart, they'll listen to what the 30-year-old has to say. Well, in the Israeli army, you get a 22year-old captain and a 22year-old staff sergeant. I mean, you get people that at their ages, they haven't even really had the experience. It's more like a political promotion. And so that's what the Isra the Israeli army lacks that that's why they are so poorly disciplined. That's why they are terrible with their tactics in the field because they're led by people that don't know what the hell they're doing. And we've seen this over and over and over throughout the years. Now they're talk of trying to they had activated 300,000 reservists for the war in Gaza. And they haven't won that. They haven't defeated Hamas after now two and a half years.

[00:28:48]And now they're talking about the need to call up an additional 400,000 reservists. I don't think they have that many people that actually do it. I mean, the the total population of uh Israel right now is reportedly around 10 million. It may have been reduced with people, you know, leaving the country.

[00:29:06]But even with 10 million, when you're talking roughly calling up 10% of your total population, I mean that that that's almost the entirety of men between men and women between the ages of 18 and and 40. Uh they just, you know, it doesn't work cuz, you know, that's supposed to be sort of the heart and soul of your workforce, too. So, if they're getting pulled out, you know, who's left there to try to carry on what minimal economic activity is is occurring.

[00:29:36]Well, as the well US has trapped itself, the Israelis are exhausting themselves.

[00:29:44]Uh what do we know about the direction Iran is taking that is uh the you know the second coming now and the overall strategy of the Iranians. uh because well on one hand it looks like one of the things uh which are really notable is how Iran is just following the US up this escalation ladder that is whatever the US does Iran shows it can do the same and uh I guess this is the biggest deterrent that is it's very predictable and one of the reasons I think Trump hasn't yet you know burned down all of Iran as he now threatens to do on Tuesday ex is exactly because they can do the same against America's allies.

[00:30:27]>> Yeah.

[00:30:28]>> But uh but what do you see being their wider strategy? Is it just like how is it just to force the US to leave without uh without the straight of Hermus or how do you see this?

[00:30:41]>> Yeah. No, I I think Iran's now ultimate strategy and one I believe that both the Russians and Chinese endorse is breaking the US control and influence in the in the Persian Gulf that so many of the Gulf Arabs, particularly the Amiradis, Qataris, Kuwaitis, Saudis, um and Bahinis, they they've been dependent upon the United States. uh and they've and the US and in turn has been dependent upon them you know so especially with the Saudis and the Emiratis buying a large number of U they have a fairly significant uh control over a number of US treasury bills uh that Trump was always seeing them as sort of uh because they're accepting payment for oil in dollars and so uh the this Persian Gulf oil became an important source for money flowing into the US coffers trying to help keep our economy afloat. Um but you know Trump uh one Iran's strategy I think is twofold.

[00:31:55]show these countries that there is a serious physical economic cost to being friends with the United States and allowing the United States to conduct military operations from your territory.

[00:32:09]The Saudis, Kuwaiti to Kuwaitis in particular, Bahrain, uh they've paid a heavy price on that. Emirates as well.

[00:32:17]Um so that's number one. Uh number two, maintain control of the straight of Hormuz so that you will economically squeeze those countries to the point that they're going to have to make a deal with Iran. Not just Iran, but also now Oman because Iran is also shrewdly uh working with Oman to say, "Okay, hey, let's let's basically create uh you know uh a cover charge. You you want to come into the Persian Gulf, got to pay a cover charge. uh you want to sell anything in and out. But to that end, Iran right now says we're not going to let anything go out that's going to benefit the United States or Europe. You know, any anybody that's aligned with Israel and supporting Israel's attack on us, they're not getting a dime out of here. And including the governments, uh there is there serious concerns about food supply in the United Arab Emirates.

[00:33:15]um it may the situation may not be as dire because so many people that lived there previously have left. So you've got a substantial reduction in the number of people needing to be fed in the Emirates. Uh same applies to Qatar and and uh and Kuwait. Kuwait and Bahrain, you know, any expatriots living there that they've bailed out the US bases that used to be in Bahrain destroyed. They're in the process, Iran is in the process of destroying what remains of the presence in in Kuwait. Uh same same in Saudi Arabia. uh the the the uh Prince SAD air base has been repeatedly struck and a number of aircraft the the pictures are emerging showing uh CH47s is a that's the big helicopter that's got like two big propell propellers at either end uh at least one of those has been destroyed if not more uh in Kuwait on the ground so u Iran's strategy is to take control of the Gulf, take control of the oil, liquid, natural gas, anything else and the fertilizer coming out of that that because of the world's need for that, they'll be able to get a control over who gets in, who gets out.

[00:34:38]And uh candidly, there's nothing the United States could do about that. and China, you know, some think that China because China has investments in the UAE and in some of these countries that's true, but what has happened now with the Ron has shifted the game so that people that want to come out, they got to pay for the fee is in yuan, not in dollars. So, it's it's actually strengthening the Chinese financial sector. And we just saw yesterday, day before yesterday, that the the Deutsch Deutsch Deutseland U bank uh has now started to offer Chinese bonds in lie of US treasuries.

[00:35:27]So, China is now beginning to forge some economic relationships with the West that actually are detrimental as far as the United States is concerned. So I think that's what Iran is seeing as part of this strategy that cut off get get the United States out of the Persian Gulf, shift the Gulf to where it's going to benefit uh China and Russia and is that part Iran sees itself as a critical future partner with both Iran and Russia in in economic growth.

[00:36:04]So I I think that's uh sort of the the broader strategy here.

[00:36:10]Yeah, the economic war I think that's the here a bit overlooked and uh an interesting component of this whole thing because in most wars there's always a strong economic incentive that is uh we always see uh when the US goes to war the oil companies you know the stock value goes up the weapons manufacturers go up we see also um economic benefits that is for example the war with uh the proxy war against Russia Um, as the war goes on, uh, the the Europeans, of course, become even more dependent on the US. They're willing to sign horrible trade deals.

[00:36:46]They buy the weapons from the US. The Ukrainians can be stripped of their natural resources. There's a lot that can be done, right, >> to pursue economic benefits in the time of war. But with the Iranians though, they appear to have really gone directly at the throat here. that is uh yeah going after the economic benefit of this whole war not just by yeah shutting down the straight of moose but now as we see uh selling the oil in once this is already being done >> it's uh yeah it's it's it's quite extraordinary and there's not much that can be done to I mean except for completely destroying Iran and hoping that you know mass brutality will uh compel it to yeah take the knee and uh do whatever America says. But it's very hard to imagine this as well. Uh so yeah, it begs the question of how where exactly is this going because on Tuesday Trump will either need to back down in a very humiliating way or he will burn down the entire Middle East. So it's hard to say which one it will be. Well, we do, you know, uh there is room for confusion on that because we know in the past, you know, where Trump made similarly uh dire threats against Hamas if you don't release the hostages by Saturday, there will be all hell's going to be brought down on you. And you know, nothing happened. Uh, so I'm I'm hoping that this is actually the the out course of action, the outcome here, that he's just, you know, blowing smoke, blowing steam.

[00:38:30]uh if he does decide to uh go after try to destroy Iran's oil ability to export oil uh he is then compounding the economic pain that the US citizens are already suffering. The uh you know the the the price of gas going up is accelerating not decelerating. you know, a week ago, like here in Florida, uh, so on February 27th, we were paying $2.54 a gallon.

[00:39:11]As of a week ago, it was paying $364 a gallon. So, it had gone up a $110.

[00:39:19]And then yesterday, when I went to fill up again, it's gone up another 30 cents.

[00:39:25]So, it's is now actually up to six six uh $3.90 95.

[00:39:32]It's going to break $4 very soon. And you know, I know there are some places in the world people say, "Oh, that's cheap." But I I'm telling you, this is Florida, which is used to relatively inexpensive gas. That's happening across the country. In fact, there are some places here in Florida, they ran out of gas. There was no more to be had. So the the unhappiness among the Americans over the economic costs that are accompanying this war and what they don't understand is let's assume that under you know the magical thinking in this world that the Iranians on Tuesday say okay we give up uh this the straits wide open anything can come in and out uh we're sorry okay the the damage that's been done to the production facilities in the United Arab Emirates, in Saudi Arabia, in Kuwait, in in Bahrain are significant.

[00:40:29]So, it's not just a matter of going back on and turning on a faucet and the oil starts flowing. Uh there's going to have to be some significant repairs and that could take months or in in the case of uh like the aluminum smelter uh years uh just years to to get some of that back online. So, and then even if you the flow of oil starts th those ships right now, the ships that are on the sea, um the they're charging $140 a barrel for that oil that's out there on the sea right now. The oil future for Brent is lower. It's like a dollar a dollar 111 uh or I mean a hundred uh $111 per barrel.

[00:41:18]But that because they're betting in the future that this price surge is going to end. So that $140 uh a barrel right now it it's it's going to probably it's going to probably go up to 200. And so this the cascading effects of this kind of boost and the fuel is enormous. Uh and then uh you know then we start getting into the complications of what has this war done to international air travel. So there are a number of airlines that may very well go bankrupt because number one they're faced with higher fuel costs.

[00:41:57]They're going to have to pay uh uh they're going to have to boost the prices of tickets for passengers.

[00:42:04]They the Qatar Air that used to fly regularly in and out of Doha not doing that right now. Similarly for Emirati Air uh got and that is a great airline I got to tell you. I've I've flown on that before. It's fly business class is luxurious but you know they're not doing too much and so it's put an end to those kinds of flights. uh the European airlines that used to fly to China, now how the hell do they get there? Because they can't fly, they don't fly across Russia because of sanctions. Um so what it what this has opened up to is a whole another economic window for for China. Chinese airline, man, they fly direct to Europe. You want to get you want to get to Paris or Rome?

[00:42:50]Yeah. Go out of Beijing, Shanghai because they fly directly across the so Russia. They don't have to worry about sanctions. Uh so they can now the Chinese now can fly places that US and European airlines can. So we haven't even seen that shake out. That's why I say there are so many so many layers and levels in the economics of this that the you know even financial analysts really aren't paying much attention to it yet.

[00:43:20]Uh so uh that's the I I I don't know if Iran understood that at the outset when they closed down the straight of Hormuz but if they didn't then I'm pretty sure now they've got a pretty good grasp on it.

[00:43:35]>> Yeah. Well, once to shut down the Middle East and as well as having no transit through Russia, there's not that many ways uh the European flights can get to Asia. I mean, you can go through Turkey, that little thin corridor, but it's uh still it's it's pretty narrow. And um yeah, I know British Airways they they said that it was unfair the competition the competitiveness of China because uh they had a >> let me let me cry crocodile tears. I I thought that as well Crimea River. I mean, nobody told you to stop flying through Russian ter. You're the one who put the sanctions on, you know. And >> but again, if you fly Chinese airways, then you can fly from Beijing to London.

[00:44:18]But the British can't operate the same flights because they have to go all the way around Russia. It's much more expensive. That's it's longer time.

[00:44:26]That's more fuel cost. And uh yeah, overall they can't compete with the Chinese. And it's just it has a lot of levels to it. But just as a last question, the what you see is being the wider ramifications here because uh the well for example the Europeans, they seem very much locked into the to the sanctions. They won't walk away from it.

[00:44:48]But I saw now that um in an interview the former prime minister of Italy, Romano, he was also the former EU commission president. I actually had an opportunity to meet him once in Kazakhstan. Interesting. like one of the good leaders in Europe before you know this class of horrible political leaders took over.