DEMS Prep NUCLEAR OPTION After VA Maps Struck Down

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]So, as you guys likely know, there was a ballot referendum here in Virginia to where voters went to the polls and voted on whether or not they wanted the maps here to be redrawn. This was a response to Trump's push to do these mid decade redistricting so that Republicans could gain a partisan advantage. You had Texas really kick this off. They redrew their map. Their map has basically been, you know, validated at this point. You've had other Republican states that have followed suit. You also just had the Supreme Court striking down aspects of the Voting Rights Act that are going to enable southern states in particular to eliminate those majority black districts and wipe out many of the Democrats that represent the deep south. So that's the landscape and the context in which Virginia voters go to the polls and they say, "Yes, we are going to two can play this game. We are going to also redraw our maps so that Virginia would become I think it was 11 to one where you'd likely have one Republican representative and 11 Democratic representatives. So this was working its way through the court system and you just had the Virginia Supreme Court again after all these millions of people voted and said yes, we want to do this.

[00:01:12]the Virginia Supreme Court come in and say, "No, we believe that this ballot referendum violated some procedures that were required in the original passage of a constitutional amendment that required this whole process." There's a reason why Virginiaians had to go to the ballot versus in other states where the legislature could just go in and redraw the maps. there was a procedure laid down in Virginia based on a constitutional amendment and the Supreme Court here said that you violated the process um not to get too much in the weeds here but basically the deal was you had to have voted on this before the next election starts and they're saying that since early voting has started that you were too late that you couldn't do this that this wasn't proper so obviously Emily Democrats are furious absolutely furious and really quite beside themselves because they're looking around the country at all these other states that are redrawing their maps to gain a partisan advantage for Republicans. California has been able to do a version of this, although actually not the most maximalist version. They may still go back to the drawing board and make it even more maximalist, but California has been able to, it appears like redraw their maps. But when Virginia Democrats come and say, "Okay, we're going to do this, too." Then the courts step in. Oh, no, no, no. You can't. You can't. And again coming right on the heels of this Voting Rights Act decision as well. I think it was particularly enraging. So the question now is whether Democrats are going to just accept this and say, "All right, well, I guess the Republicans get to redraw their maps, but we don't." Or if they're going to try to take some more uh extreme measures. And the New York Times has a report that indicates there is some brainstorming about what could be done here. the headline and this is uh this is significant reporting. This is the headline from the New York Times.

[00:02:59]A private call reveals Democrats desperation over tossing of map. And so what they are considering is uh a couple step process uh where effectively they would lower the retirement age for Supreme Court justices I think down to the mid50s.

[00:03:19]that would kick the entire seven uh justice court out. Like everybody would be tossed out because they're all older than that. And then you would put in justices that you believe will be supportive of your view of the world.

[00:03:34]And then they would go back in with a case challenging the original constitution amendment that required this whole process to begin with. So that then the legislature which is dominated by Democrats at this point could just redraw the maps without having to go to the voters. So that is what they're contemplating. Obviously this would be especially for Democrats a relatively radical move to change the retirement age and toss out all of Supreme Court justices so that you could put your people on the bench. But they point to something very similar that just happened in Utah where their Supreme Court also um tossed out a pro-Republican gerrymandering in that state and they decided to move forward with packing the court in Utah so that they could get ultimately what they wanted. And there were some other examples of Republican states in the past who have done similar things. So these are the lines, Emily, that Democrats are thinking along. I'm curious for your thoughts. Well, the Indiana results last week are really relevant here because what happened in that case is Republican voters, I mean, some people were very irked by the fact that you had around $10 million. I've seen $8 million estimate, $12 million estimate, uh, come into these state races in Indiana from national MAGA groups and try to oust as many people as possible who wouldn't go along with uh the Trump redistricting plan. And Indiana voters, Republican voters look around and they say, "We don't want to unilaterally disarm now that this has become like an arms race to see who can out gerrymander the other side." Um, which is exactly what Democrats in Virginia are saying now, too, which is don't just, what did you say at the beginning of this show? Lay in a chalk outline. Uh, lay in your chalk. Yes. Lay in the chalk outline of yourself. Don't do that. And it's the the pressure cooker uh is is getting to a wild point.

[00:05:25]I don't know that anybody I mean you could have seen this coming as soon as Texas and California happened, but I don't know if anybody was like fully prepared for what it was going to look like. Like what what is the joke? Did you think it what did you think gerrymandering was? Just vibes essays.

[00:05:38]No, it's this. It's it's this. and Indiana Republicans said, "Uh, listen, it's not that, you know, we're we need you to like bow to Donald Trump, but we're pissed because we know what's going to happen in other states now that Democrats have said we're going for it, too." Um, obviously Jerry mandering goes back many, many years. And, you know, there are Dem states that have been jerry mandered, Republican states that have been jerrymandered. This current wave obviously really started with Texas. And so as soon as Gavin Newsome took that bait, it was spreading nationwide. And Indiana Republicans said, "Well, you know, you can't just you can't just say in principle, we're not doing this anymore because the principle has already been tossed out the window. You have to live in the here and now." And Crystal, it's interesting because that sounds like it's exactly how Virginia Democrats are reacting, too. And you said you didn't want to get too much in the weeds, but I am curious.

[00:06:30]Um, I've heard some analyses that say Virginia Democrats were like maybe probably should have been prepared for this potential outcome and I have no idea whether or not that's true, but that it was rushed and sloppy. Is there anything to that? Is that part of this?

[00:06:47]>> I to be honest with you, I mean obviously they should have foreseen it since this did happen there. It was very the the attitude was very dismissive towards the idea that the Supreme Court would overturn this and you know it was a 4-3 decision. It was closely decided.

[00:07:01]Obviously the three dissenting justices felt very strongly in the opposite direction. But there was a sense of we've got to go for this. This is what the base wants. And but I think it also there was a bit of a half measure here because you didn't deal with the partisan makeup of the court before you went in and tried to redraw the maps. So in that sense, I think you could say perhaps there was a lack of planning.

[00:07:27]And look, I I find it really outrageous, quite frankly, that we had tens of millions of dollars spent on this thing and everybody going out, going to the polls, millions of people voting, and then after the fact, after everybody's voted, and by the way, after the court sees what the results of that vote are, that they come in, oh, well, no, we're you're not allowed to do that. And that is the sort of thing that will absolutely enrage and radicalize people.

[00:07:56]And I feel that. I mean, it is it is outrageous. You have all these other states, just thinking of it from a fairness perspective. All these other states, Texas can just go in and rewrite their maps, no problem. You've got Florida just came and they're going to rewrite their maps. But Virginia and and no input from the voters. But Virginia, you actually get input from voters in a pretty large turnout election for like this weird special election and that gets thrown out as unacceptable. You could see how that is extremely extremely frustrating for people. Let me put C5 up on the screen. There was a sense when the Virginia maps passed in this brief moment in time. When the Virginia maps had passed and you had not yet had the Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights Act where people are feeling like, okay, Democrats, they may not come out on top in the redistricting battles, but they're going to maybe at least be able to get it to a draw. You can see in this map that that is just nowhere near the case at this point. All of the red states in red here are ones where Republicans are going to be able to add one to, you know, to like three or four seats to their um, you know, based on their gerrymanders. Virginia is in yellow because it's been tossed out.

[00:09:09]So, obviously, no seats are going to change there outside of being able to win some seats, which I think is possible uh just in with the maps as they exist. California and one seat in Utah are the only places where Democrats have made up ground. And I'm not sure if that Utah one is going to hold because of the court packing that they're engaged in there. I'm not sure what the timeline is in terms of whether they'll be able to reverse that map that was drawn there. But in any case, you know, Republicans now are just romping in the mid district mid uh mid decade redistricting wars. It's not even close.

[00:09:44]And so, you know, when you look at Donald Trump, extremely unpopular, Republicans in every single special election, taking on water, losing seats that you never thought that they would lose, and then you see the way that these rules are being changed in a mostly one-sided direction to block the will of the people. Yeah, I think it's a very radicalizing thing. And uh we could put Hassan's tweet up here. is sort of channeling that energy. Quoting JFK I think uh in a way that maybe especially because of who Hassan is. This is C2 guys was per perhaps intentionally provocative especially because he didn't put the quote in quotes. So people who don't know any history thought maybe he said this himself. Anyway, Hassan says the Virginia Supreme Court denied the results of the redistricting referendum.

[00:10:32]Scotas gutted the voting rights act and Tennessee carved up the last dem district destroying black voter power in the state. Those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent revolution inevitable, which again is a a JFK quote. And as an analysis of where we are of reality, I don't think you can deny that. And Emily again, I think we already see the stirrings of that. I think when you see Luigi Manion being treated like a a hero, at least a lot of very normal people going, "Well, I don't like it, but I kind of get it." when you see the um you know the level of fury and the backlash against Trump with very little outlet to be able to have the will of the people actually expressed.

[00:11:14]Yeah. You're going to have people begin to do crazy things because they don't have a peaceful means to be able to change reality in their supposedly democratic country.

[00:11:24]>> Yeah. I mean it's a totally anodine accurate eloquent quote actually. So it's perfectly applicable in this situation. It's probably you're probably right coming from Hassan and the capitalist blood in the streets quote in the past people like connect the dots and like oh this guy is he's must be calling for violent revolution which was obviously not what was happening in that case whatsoever and uh Crystal it's the disconnect between I think this is this is real one of the things that you referenced how professor Robert Pap who we've had on many times to talk about Iran one of the points he made um was in the daily last week right he had that interview in the daily about his his work he's currently working on a book he's been researching for a long time uh what what he describes as quote populist violence. Uh and we could get into that as a descriptor, but basically he's he's saying that you have a situation right now where people feel like they are the the political political class is not listening to them. And if you look at polling over time, people do feel like they lack agency. They feel more powerless in the political process. And that is really dangerous because if you have an unpopular war uh by waged by a president who said he was elected not to get into quote new wars, put all of his hawkishness on Iran aside. That's what a lot of average normal Americans heard when he said he didn't want to start new wars, that he wouldn't start new wars.

[00:12:44]War is very unpopular. That is unlike George W. Bush campaigning cynically, shamefully on not nation building and then going to nation build because obviously 9/11 happened between point A and point B and that situation which changed public support for the war at least at first. So you have that happening. Um and people from the right I would just say think about uh what you felt like when President Biden's immigration policy was out of step with where public opinion was. Uh that those things do matter. Uh we we don't have a direct election for a reason. I think it's for a good reason. I believe in the Republican system. Uh we don't have rule by referendum for a reason. Um and you and I could debate how that's gone in California. But the point is, you know, yes, it's true that you have the quote cooling saucer of the Senate and you have the the lowercase R Republican process playing out in the United States. But you have wild mismatches. I mean, we're not just talking about one tough decision that the president is making. We're talking about wild mismatches across the board uh between what people say they want and what's actually happen happening not only in Washington but now in their state houses too. Uh which is a really really bad sign especially because of the proximity.

[00:13:55]>> So there's uh some of this debate been playing out on CNN. Kind of a fun exchange here between Scott Jennings and a Democratic strategist. Let's go ahead and take a listen to the C4. Let's listen to a little of this.

[00:14:06]>> The political map like y'all are cheating. Okay, just accept it. That's your Let me Let me just finish. Let me finish. You're cheating and cuz you politically you're not favorable right now. And so this is the only way you would actually win the House is by drawing maps.

[00:14:20]>> Partisan redistricting is a fact of life. And now >> this isn't partisan >> in on the campaign. It sure is. On the racial redistric on the campaign, >> you literally are taking Memphis, which is a city that with black voters and you split it in three stretching 3,000 miles.

[00:14:35]>> Who's the current Democratic congressman there? What What What is it? A black congressman? Just because black people are allowed to elect people that don't look like them.

[00:14:42]>> Exactly. And that is the point I wanted you to make because just because you're not gonna have a black congressman, why is it that a Republican can't do just as well representing black voters as a Democrat? Why does your raceing why does your race determine your politics?

[00:14:55]>> It doesn't. It does. No, just be you're making my point actually. The assumption is black people No, no, no. The assumption is black people will only elect black people. No, black people are smart enough to let me finish. black people actually black people will elect uh people who will actually represent them, who have their best interest at heart. And what Republicans have done in Tennessee is dismantle the power for black people to have their voice. They did the same thing in in Texas because they said they thought Latinos were going to swing for Republicans. There are black people that are represented.

[00:15:28]I'm I'm black and I got a Republican president right now. Black people don't elect black people based on race. They elect people that are aligned with their moral, their beliefs in justice. And Biden just took that away from them in Tennessee and in other states.

[00:15:41]>> I I just disagree that the only person, the only kind of a politician who can elect black people in Congress must be a Democrat. This is just an artificial Democratic party. Black voters are still fully franchised and can go vote for whoever they want. That's not what I'm saying.

[00:15:56]>> So they're talking there, Emily, about Steve Cohen, who is the white representative for a majority black district in Tennessee. that map has already been redrawn going through the legislature in Tennessee over, you know, much protesting. And so, actually, Ryan, I didn't realize this. Ryan has told the story on the show before that Steve Cohen actually tried to um tried to join the Congressional Black Caucus because he's like, "Yeah, I'm not black, but my constituents are, and isn't that what this should be about?" Which I'm with him on. I agree with him. They should have let him in the Congressional Black Caucus. But in any case, I thought that was pretty funny for uh Scott Jennings to be taking that side and and it in my opinion, it did prove the point of the Democratic strategist there of like no, this is not about just like electing black people. This is about black people having a voice to vote who they want to vote for and they do not want to vote for your Republican friends.

[00:16:48]>> Well, this is where Republicans can get I mean, I've I've seen some speculation about dummy mandering happening and I don't think that's entirely out of the question. Republicans are now really really excited that uh their chances to hold on to the House have just gotten stronger. And I mean I don't know. I went and looked at the generic congressional vote on RCP. So the RCP average where it was in 2018 versus where it is now. Uh Dems have they're it's at plus 5.6 uh right now. It was at plus 5.8 for Democrats at the same point in the 2018 cycle. So it's very very close to where it was then. And as we've been talking about, we're sort of at the tip of the iceberg in terms of what we're going to see with price increases in all likelihood between now and November. So, they can do this all they want. I actually don't know that it's always going to be splendid for them that it's going to uh salvage. I certainly don't think it's going to salvage the House of Representatives. They may staunch some of the bleeding. they may be able to prevent a total blue tsunami like what happened in 2018 and thrust Nancy Pelosi back into uh the speakerhip, but I don't know that it's actually going to be like a huge huge wave. And the uh Cook political analysis of this is not doesn't suggest that it's going to be like a big wave for Republicans right now either, Crystal, because they still have to win support from voters. You still have to get people to vote for you. and when you're even struggling with your own party in higher numbers, uh voter motivation, excitement for turnout. Uh someone else made a really good point too that this could uh I think it was in playbook this morning that this could energize black voters in particular if you need in a midterm cycle, low propensity voters, uh people who might otherwise just not turn out because they're not super excited about candidates, so they have other stuff to do. Um that's a lot of Trump voters. So, you already have that problem and then you could potentially be uh invigorating uh black voters uh to like get out and actually go vote. That's going to be a real problem for Republicans in November, too. There this is I don't think any of this has necessarily been a guarantee of higher success for Republicans. Maybe a bit. I mean, maybe a few seats, but nothing to be dramatic.

[00:18:58]>> I think overall, based on the landscape now, it's definitely going to help Republicans. I don't think it will save Republicans, but just to give everybody a sense of the magnitude here, and these are all rough estimates based on what we know of what the maps are and where the maps are going, blah blah blah. But one analyst I saw projected that this would mean that Democrats have to win the popular vote by four points. Four points in order to take the majority in the House. And look, in past eras, maybe four points wouldn't be a lot. But now in a time when you have very strong partisan polarization and these things usually hang hang on a knife's edge, four points is a landslide. You know, Trump obviously won by less than four points and he certainly considers that to be a landslide uh in terms of the the popular vote. So that is the level of a tilted playing field that we're talking about. And then you also do think about specific instances like I think in Mississippi I think the state population is like it's like 40% black something like that. They have one right now majority minority district and very likely that's going to be a race. So then you have 40% of your state that is and I'm being a little bit brought because obviously there are black people who vote for Republicans but it's also pretty over it's like 90% vote for Democrats, right? And so that part of the population is just not going to be represented, you know, and this isn't about an identity thing. This is about their political views and having any sort of voice for them in DC, that's going to be erased. And when we talk about a crisis of democracy, I think that's a problem. You know, I think this whole thing is a disastrous race to the bottom. Like it would be great in my opinion if we passed national anti-jerrymandering laws, but certainly this outcome that we're having now where the redistricting battles are being won so out out you know so lopsidedly for Republicans is going to create uh you know a significant significant strain.

[00:20:56]But yeah, I think I think you're right.

[00:20:57]I think Democrats probably still favored to win the House. You know, when I look at the the odds, the poly market and the Kawashi and whatever, they're still very much favored to win the House, but when you have this tilted of a system, it does make it very difficult. And, you know, it's another it's another blow to the idea that we have even a representative democracy.

[00:21:16]>> Well, some good news for Democrats. Um the 2018 popular vote margin in the House was 7% 7.1% and again I think the conditions are only going to get more favorable for Democrats down the line. So it's it's possible they still get a a decent sized blue wave. I actually think the Senate is very very much in play. I'm sure you do too, Gristle. But Nebraska, Maine, >> they can't jerrymander states. So >> yeah, >> given the rural power in the Senate, there's already a Republican advantage there. But yeah. Well, but Democrats in like rural states have fielded much better candidates uh this time around, which is very interesting. Like really learning from the mistakes, I would argue of 2018. You have a Platner instead of a a Gideon type candidate in Maine. You have Dan Osbbor in Nebraska.

[00:22:02]Sure. Brown, I think, is very very competitive in Ohio. I think Texas is probably out of uh the question, but North Carolina looking really good for Democrats. And that's the ball game right there. and um Pelola in Alaska too is a very good candidate there and the polling has her up as well. So um so yeah, I think I think that's very possible. So we will see how that all goes.

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