Diplomatic stalemates often persist when neither party has appetite for renewed conflict, creating a fragile equilibrium where ceasefires remain on 'life support'—barely functioning but technically in place—until external pressure or breakthroughs force resolution; this is exemplified by the US-Iran situation where both sides benefit from the stalemate while avoiding kinetic military action, with negotiations complicated by strategic communication tactics like public rejections on social media and appeals to third-party mediators.
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Trump: US-Iran Ceasefire On Life Support - BlueAdded:
We begin tonight with the Iran war and the very public diplomacy being carried out over social media. Just hours after Iran sent its counter proposals to a US plan for potential peace talks, President Trump rejected the proposals.
Writing on social media, he said he did not like it, calling it totally unacceptable. And speaking just an hour ago, he warned that the ceasefire was on life support. Iran is reported to have suggested separating negotiations on ending hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz from more complex issues like Tehran's nuclear program. Sources in Iran, quoted by the semi-official news agency Tasnim, said Mr. Trump's reaction does not matter at all and that Iran would only draft plans for the rights of the Iranian nation, not to please the US president. Correspondents say the response from Mr. Trump could be a negotiating position or an outright rejection. It's difficult to know. The price of oil has risen again over the uncertainty. Meanwhile, the month-old ceasefire is largely holding, but it's been fraying in recent days with clashes at sea and more drone attacks in the Gulf.
The only thing we have demanded is Iran's legitimate rights. I leave the judgment to you and to our people. Is Iran's demand to end the war in the region, to stop maritime piracy, naval blockade against Iranian ships and to release the assets belonging to the Iranian people that have been unjustly held for years in foreign banks due to US pressure. These are excessive demands. As for the continuation of our course. We have demonstrated our approach clearly, regardless of any interference that may come from various directions. We remain focused on Iran's national interests.
We will act But for the time being, the ceasefire remains in place. Yeah, it's it unbelievably weak. How do we say? I would call it the weakest right now.
After reading that piece of garbage they sent us, I didn't even finish reading it. I said, "I'm not going to waste my time reading it."
I would say it's one of the weakest right now. It's on a life support. They understand these are all medical people.
Dr. Oz, life support is not a good thing. Do you agree? Bad prognostic.
>> I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support.
President Trump, well, for more on this, I'm joined now on the line from New York by ARISE special correspondent James Blue. Uh thanks for joining us, James.
What's the latest that you're hearing?
Well, you know, I hear that it is on life support, but the key there is that it is on life support. I think President Trump is really, really not wanting to escalate and to return to full kinetic action against Iran. That's especially true this week when he's traveling to China. He's going to meet President Xi, and I think he would like to have a Iran war as much off the table as possible.
He realizes that going into these talks with President Xi in China, he presents a much weaker hand coming having not been able to move past the stalemate. I do think he wants it to end, but I also think that the Americans and the Iranians certainly both benefit from the stalemate.
And I think it will continue until there's pressure from either side to just figure out a way to get through and either to capitulate or to resume some fighting.
So, I mean, at the risk of making you repeat yourself, what's your assessment of where this response from Donald Trump leaves everything? Because he says Iran's counter-proposals to end the war are totally unacceptable. Is it difficult to know whether this is outright rejection or is it a typical Trump bargaining position and there's still some wiggle room there?
I think there is absolute wiggle room.
You didn't hear him say the talks are over, we're not going to talk. You didn't hear him say we're walking away from the table, we're taking our cards and playing elsewhere. He simply said they presented something that was garbage and this this ceasefire is on life support. Yet it continues and that is the most important thing. It continues and the Iranians want it to continue. The Americans want it to continue and the real dance is what can be contained.
What is the sort of low level of conflict that both Iran and the US can endure in order for this to continue.
That is what we need to answer and the next few days will tell us.
And I mean, it's interesting that Mr. Trump had been sounding optimistic in recent days.
But from the Iranian perspective, I mean, the the country's semi-official news agency Tasnim is quoting officials in Tehran as saying that Mr. Trump's reaction does not matter at all and that Iran would only draft plans for the rights of the Iranian nation not to please the US president. What's your assessment of that reaction?
Well, I think what Iran is doing is that they're really trying to play beyond the Trump game. What many people do is they respond to President Trump, they respond to his social media tweets, and they get into a tit-for-tat. Iran is taking a different road, and they're not doing that, and they basically are trying to appeal to others inside the United States, hoping that there can be some additional pressure put on President Trump so that he can figure out a way to get back to the negotiating table. I think it's very, very important to know neither side has said, "We're giving up.
We're going to walk away. We're not in this." And as a result, things are still going, and I think they will go for a while because everyone recognizes there is no appetite for continued war, no appetite for the sort of casualties, and they've already outlined some of the things that are going to happen should Iran agree. So, I think this is a stalemate where neither side wants to go back to the kinetic fighting, but it's just being very hard to figure out the path to get them to continue the ceasefire for additional 30 days so they can actually get to the issues that matter, which are the nuclear materials, and whether Iran can actually keep and actually enrich its own uranium.
Well, nevertheless, from what we're seeing today and what we're hearing, I mean, it sounds like highly unlikely that the two governments would be able to come to a deal where both would be able to walk away reasonably content.
So, I mean, you're you're not a I guess you've got some kind of crystal ball cuz you you hang around the White House and things like that. I mean, what happens next?
Will they continue to move forward with further diplomatic movements, or are we likely to see US military action from that statement from President Trump.
I think we won't see any military US action while President Trump is in China. In fact, what I think will likely happen is that President Trump in meeting with she will figure out some way to get a US request to the Iranians through President Xi. I think Iran is probably closest to China than any other country save Russia. And the fact that Trump is going to visit China is an opportunity for both Iran and for China. China wants to increase its standing in the world.
It wants some type of chip from the American president and it may be in resolving this conflict Iran with Iran.
That may be where they actually get a chip. Let's just sort of see, but I think it's very, very unlikely for a kinetic military fighting to happen while the president is in China. It just doesn't make sense. There's no need for it. And I think the Iranians are also pinning hope that President Xi can do something to push this forward to their benefit.
And let me just say that later in the program we have a former US diplomat who who used to be a China analyst at the US State Department coming in to talk to us on this program. So that would be interesting to have their analysis, but we appreciate your assessment. James, I know you've got to run. So thank you for the time. James Blue is our eye special correspondent who was talking to me on the line there from New York.
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