Immigration ‘Not Really’ The Problem In Youth Jobs Crisis, Alan Milburn Warns

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]We found no evidence that there is a link between levels of migration and higher levels of needs. Okay. It is true of course that over these last few years over these last 10 or 15 years um migration levels have been high and very often the workers who were coming in particularly in the low skilled sectors of the economy hospitality maybe retail hospitality more more particular you know they've been coming into sectors that traditionally young people have been in so sure that's been happening I'd like to sort of couch it in a slightly different way if I can which is I think Migration is now an opportunity to help solve the need problem.

[00:00:44]We're on a downward trend of migration levels. Down, not up. I don't know how long that's going to last, but it seems to be pretty consistent. All the economists tell me that it will keep falling and we could have a minus net level of migration figure before too long. That may well bounce back, but we're probably not going to get back to anywhere like we were in previous times around a million. And frankly, to be honest, too many employers have been on easy street.

[00:01:13]They've been able to import labor from overseas rather than grow labor and skills at home. And now they've all got problem. Talk to any employer. Talk to employees in hospitality at the bottom end of the labor market. talk to um employers in technology at the top end of the labor market and they will all complain about the same thing which is a shortage of skilled labor. So where are they going to recruit from?

[00:01:39]There's a pool of labor. Is it straightforward? Is it easy? No. Is the pastoral burden for an employer higher?

[00:01:46]Yes, it is. And that means back to some of these questions about national insurance contributions and and and we got to accept that the pastoral burden for employers will be higher and therefore the support that employees will need particularly small and mediumsized enterprises will be higher too. So so I think you know you just got to get this sort of couched in the right way because honestly it's one of those issues it's a blame game issue. We just sort of blame immigration as the problem. It not really it isn't. Um so so so I think that is the right way to to frame it. This problem as I said you know in my my speech it goes back decades you know and it's all it's been one of those issues that you know people have seen it but they've not really looked at it. You can't have a consistent meat rate of 10% for 25 years. It's only fallen once below 10% during the pandemic. Okay. So this is a structural thing and it's obviously a really difficult thing to deal with, you know. So the easiest thing is to do the blame game. Everybody wants to blame everybody, you know, blame the smartphones, blame the parents, blame the benefit system, you know, blame the employers, blame the politicians. Sure, blame the politicians, fine, you know, but that doesn't get you anywhere. Yeah, it really doesn't. You got to understand what the hell is going on, why it's getting worse, not better. You got to take a systemswide view of it. And what is unique about what we try to do here is we've tried to look at it through a systems lens both on the supply side and the demand side and that will point us to getting answers that are sustainable.

[00:03:18]I was saying at the end of my speech that the last thing that you need is a new policy and a new program. You if you look at these things they've all some of them are perfectly good. New deal I was part of it is a perfectly good thing.

[00:03:29]Kickstart introduced by the conservative group perfectly good thing. Where is it today?

[00:03:35]Nowhere.

[00:03:36]These things are temporary. One of my advisers said to me in the course of the of a conversation, he said, "Isn't it a bit crazy that once in a generation politics decides that this is a really big issue and then we invent from scratch a brand new policy and a brand new program?" Well, what is needed is a sustained strategy and proper architecture. And that is what we're going to do. Well, I think employers are going to be offering jobs to young Brits for migrants for a very simple reason that there's a bigger pool now of unemployed, not in education and employing employment Brits than there are migrants coming in. So, honestly, the equation has changed and I view this as a really big opportunity, but it's not straightforward. Okay, it's easy to say, "Oh, well, we'll just replace the apple with the apple." It isn't. This is apple and pears. You know, you're bringing in a migrant worker. They're often experienced. They're often a bit older. There were new figures released showing that there are now over 1 million young people in our country not in education, employment, or training.

[00:04:44]It's actually more than a statistic.

[00:04:47]It's a warning. a warning that far too many young people are reaching adulthood only to find the door to opportunity closed. They're neat. It's an ugly term, but it's a term with ugly consequences, too. Aspirations thwarted, confidence drained, futures narrowed before they've properly begun. Parents are more worried than ever about their kids. grandparents too about their youngsters prospects for a job, a home, a decent future. For decades in Britain, the foundation of our unwritten social contract has been that each generation would be able to do better than the last. That great British promise for this generation is being broken. The 1 million young people who are neat are its leading casualties.

[00:05:39]They've been hit by a perfect storm. A generation ago, almost two in three of this age cohort were in work. Today, it's barely 50%. For under 18s in education, the number also holding down a job has harved during that time. Now, there's been much focus about the impact on youth employment of recent policies like the youth minimum wage and the rise in national insurance contributions.

[00:06:06]Employers repeatedly raised this with me as an issue and it is true. The changes have had an impact. It's always a risk for an employer to take on a young person precisely because they're unproven. So public policy wants more young people in work. It has to minimize risks and maximize opportun incentives for employers. But no one should pretend that the structural change that has been taking place in the youth labor market has only recently been triggered. Over the last few decades, Britain has had a jobs boom, but one that has largely passed young people by. Entry-level jobs have long been in sharp decline.

[00:06:50]Compared to the start of the century, there are 1.6 million fewer low and mediumskilled jobs in the economy.

[00:06:56]Vacancies in hospitality have harved in the last four years. Saturday jobs have long since been in freef fall.

[00:07:03]Apprenticeship starts amongst young people have fallen by 35% over the last decade. The first rung of the ladder in careers has thinned. For too many young people, it is now simply out of reach.

[00:07:17]That places them in a hopeless catch 22 position where employers ask for work experience, but opportunities for young people to gain it have either narrowed or have gone. And by the way, that is before the impact of the AI revolution to come on jobs and workplaces.