California Election Day: What the data says so far

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[00:00:00]So, here's a look at the last polling conducted ahead of election day. It shows Mayor Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt effectively tied at 30% with council member Nthia Ramen not far behind with 23%. 5% were undecided. This polling is from California Post and Mclofflin Associates. It was conducted early last week.

[00:00:21]>> All right, let's show you how the uh California governor's race is shaping up. The polling was done by Inside California Politics in Emerson College last week on Wednesday and Thursday.

[00:00:31]Basera 28%, Styer 23%, Hilton at 23% as well. We've got Chad Biano at 12% and Katie Porter at 5%.

[00:00:42]>> All right, so those are the poll stands right now. Brooke is joining us now with so far turn voter turnout uh has been especially low compared to general elections. I guess this is can be expected. Yeah, typically what we see as far as the difference between general elections. But of course, you know, this is not what the candidates want to see regardless. You know, statewide 18% of ballots have been returned. LA County 14% same with Los Angeles the city also 14%.

[00:01:08]>> All right. So, you've been digging into what voters are thinking or what what we're >> trying [laughter] uh and what we what might what we might expect here during this election cycle and you've been talking to former city council member uh Mike Bonan.

[00:01:21]>> Yeah. You know, I was fascinated to talk to him because, you know, he's out of it kind of obviously, right? And but, you know, he was right there. He was in it.

[00:01:29]And so, he knows I I think he thinks he has a great idea of what voters are looking for, right? What candidates need to do to try and make the point that they can best serve the city of Los Angeles. Uh, so I asked him overall, you know, what do you think about the mayoral race in general? And he basically said, look, it's anyone's game. Still >> overall thoughts on the mayor's race is I think it's sort of a a jump ball. Uh when the votes are done being counted, it could be any two out of Mayor Bass, Nikki Ramen, and Spencer Pratt. And whatever we see tonight is probably not going to be what we see when the votes are done being counted.

[00:02:07]>> Like four years ago on primary night, Rick Caruso was up seven points. When they finished counting, Mayor Bass was up seven points. So, conservative voters vote early, older voters vote early. So, tonight is probably going to be a good showing for uh Spencer Pratt because Republicans have been voting strongly and for Mayor Bass because seniors have been voting strongly.

[00:02:30]>> So, in other words, it's still anyone's game, >> right? [laughter] >> That's right. Uh, okay. So, I know you were already looking at how return ballots because there have been quite a few breakdown by party and by racial demographic.

[00:02:41]>> Yeah. Hold on. I have my phone pulled up right here. Okay. Yeah. No. So, I was looking at uh Political Data, Inc., right? So, they are a tracker. They basically get the information from the county, from the state, and we've just been talking about citywide 14% of the ballots return. And let me show you how that breaks down a little bit. Uh 15% Democratic ballots, 17% Republican, nine nonparty other. But most interesting is that we were looking at how things break down by racial demographic. Right. And the turnout so far is incredibly low.

[00:03:13]Incredibly low. looking at um 17% for Asian voters, 9% Latino, 12% black. And I also talked to the former councilman about that.

[00:03:25]>> White voters tend to dominate these elections. I mean, the electorate does not look like the population of California. So, you know, right now in the city of LA, 61% of the people who voted so far are are white out of 40% of the population. So it's disproportionate and that will impact the results.

[00:03:45]>> Yeah. And it was interesting because he had no prediction on how it would impact the results. He said that there was no clear in in his mind there was no clear person who is you know overwhelmingly going to win the Latino vote. And I thought that was interesting. He said, you know, look, you know, Mayor Bass has strong black voter support. Spencer Pratt has strong conservative voter support. and he felt like while the Latino vote is absolutely going to be decisive, he just doesn't know to whom.

[00:04:12]>> And also interesting, I talked to the president of the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project and that's an organization. They're what they do, their mission is to empower Latino voters, right? And she said without Latino voters, Mayor Bass doesn't hit the top two. So, it's interesting the perspectives and and the differences is there. So >> even depending on which poll you ask, they say different things, >> girl. Okay. Right. Between the day, it changes. It does. No. So we'll see. And I'll have more of that uh coming up later on this morning.

[00:04:43]>> Really does come out come to turnout, right?

[00:04:45]>> It come It comes down to turnout. That's really what it is. It comes down to turnout over and over. I also talked to the former councilman about just changes in campaigns these days and kind of what we see now. And he was just talking about the importance of social media these days, the importance of YouTube ads. Oh yeah. Look at what happened with Spencer Pratt, right?

[00:05:03]>> That's that's how he rose to where he is right now because of those AI generated ads.

[00:05:08]>> He also said that, you know, he talked about like, you know, in years past there was always this strong push for male voters and he said that he's seen a massive difference in who the ads are targeting now and that that's kind of gone to the wayside a little bit. I thought that was fascinating.

[00:05:20]>> Wow.

[00:05:21]>> All right. Thank you. Mhm. Thank you.