New England Coastal & Marine Community: Seasonally Rare New England Storm Potential

[00:00:00]Meteorologist Matt Noise, one degree outside weather network. Could be a pretty decent storm coming up on our coastline in New England here as we get into Friday and Saturday. Actually, we all deal with it, but Danielle talked a lot about this already in our insights video that you can find at onedereeside.com or on our onederee outside weather app. She was in the studio in front of the green screen.

[00:00:16]I've been working a lot on our private forecast for municipalities and organizations. And one of the alarm bells we're raising is the potential for an impactful storm Friday night into Saturday at the coastline in particular.

[00:00:28]So, here's the rundown on it. Again, Danielle talked in the main video about the fact that we're probably looking at a real cold storm. Well, that does tend to raise the chance of thunder. And as we get closer to this one, it's a bit of a rare setup. Sometimes we find quote surprises. So, our job is to try and stay ahead of those surprises, right?

[00:00:44]Wouldn't surprise me at all then to find an uptick in thunder potential for Friday night as we get closer into this thing. Either way, it's windswept showers and downpours Friday evening and night. A pulse of wind that comes in Saturday, and the seas will build quickly as a result. Let's go to the atmospheric energy. This is something that yes, Danielle showed earlier as she was looking at that disturbance coming out of Hudson Bay, right up toward the top center of your screen, comes right out of the North Pole and drops down directly over New England. There is a ton of energy with this one. It comes right over us. And when you do this, you get weird things that happen in the atmosphere. And part of the reason for that is because you have really cold air that comes with it. Not just at the surface. Danielle was talking about the chance of seeing a little snow in the mountains, right? I'm talking about 18 20,000 feet up in the sky, temperatures of 20 and 25 degrees below zero. This is a really cold core that drops over New England. When you do that, you encourage rapid cloud growth. That's why I say thunder may become a part of this. You also encourage rapid storm development.

[00:01:46]So really, in this case, the surface low is not one that comes up from the south and west and strengthens over the ocean.

[00:01:52]In fact, this is one very rare for a setup, not unheard of, but rare that it drops down from Canada and there's just so much energy and cold aloft that it causes storm development to really come together along our coastline. So, my concern with that, not only is that shot of rain, and that's fine, and thunder, which is also fine, frankly, it's the wind aspect. So, this is not unprecedented even in what's going on right now. Look at Nova Scotia. Pretty decent wind core around that storm late Friday for us. But what I'm talking about is a storm wind core that develops right along the coastline going into the pre-dawn on Saturday. Take a look. This is right around dawn. Gusts of 40 miles per hour or greater are in yellow.

[00:02:31]You're starting to crank it up at the coast of Maine. Watch what we do. A northeast pulse of wind that comes in for us as we go through Saturday morning and midday and comes right down the eastern Mass Coast. Is this guaranteed to happen? No. Again, there'll be surprises with this system. It's a rare system for this deep into the warm season, but this is looking like a real potential for us. And then that wind kind of goes away as we get into Sunday.

[00:02:56]So look, it has a big effect on the seastate. I mean, Friday's wind is going to be about 3 to 8 miles an hour sustained. Look at the sustained wind on Saturday. 32 37 miles per hour with gusts that'll go higher than that. We'll take a look at the gusts in just a second. This is going to stir the seas, but the thing that I'm worried about for New England is it's going to stir them in a hurry. And that's why I'd like to spread the word on the fact that we're watching this. If it doesn't happen, hey, we'll let you know. We'll back off of it, right? But notice the Friday seas are 2 to three feet. Look at the Saturday seas. Bam. 6 to9 feet nearshore, 8 to 12 feet offshore. This is something where a lot of folks have the boat in the water. And again, it's a rare storm for this time of the year. It also, if it comes together the way it looks like it may, would be rare for ramping up the wind and seas very quickly on Saturday morning. and you'd go from essentially fine in the very early morning to what would be very turbulent later in the day. Here is the Saturday afternoon sustained wind near the coastline. Notice those six to eight footers that'll be building if this does come together the way it looks right now. There's a few days for us to say ah it's not going to be that way. But I just want you to know before you take any offshore trips or you decide that we're going to go out of the boat here on Saturday. just let's get the word out that look gust may actually go take a look at 50 or even a little bit higher than 50 miles per hour as this comes through. So again, you're looking at the thunder potential we'll keep an eye on.

[00:04:18]You're looking at the windswept shower potential. You're looking at the pulse of Saturday wind and how that certainly may turn up the seas very quickly on Saturday as well. We will continue to cover this at onoutside.com and our onederee outside weather app. Of course, you can always send reports to us through the send to us tab of the app as well. And this is a two-way street. We started a digital first weather offering to hear from you. So feel free to communicate with us along the way.

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