Highest CPI Since 2023: Bearish Technical Signs Still Looming

Added: 2026-06-11

[00:00:19]Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the Close. My name is Drew Dosek and today guys the return to selling actually entered the markets pushing some of the major indices down near the lows of yesterday. That rip roaring rally is going to be tested in the coming days.

[00:00:33]Now today we had CPI data hit the markets this morning. That CPI data certainly was hot. Uh but the core CPI was actually a little bit less. It was at 02% increase even though that is still increasing. It was a little bit less. uh that did highlight the fact now core CPI for those that don't know does not have energy or food included in those calculations. And so what that's doing is it's highlighting the fact that the energy was really a lot of the cause of the increase. That was obvious with oil going up as much as we've seen most recently. But that little bit of a breather if you would say with a slightly less core CPI allowed the markets to at least push up higher from their lower start today. But guys, as I said, the selling pressure resumed. So, let's get into the charts. Let's break down what's going on in the markets. All right. So, you can see here the S&P 500 today down 1.58% closing on or just slightly beneath the top barrier of this parallel channel.

[00:01:30]That is a big development, guys, because we could be talking about trading back within this parallel channel after this incredible run. Now yesterday I was talking about how this in essence was simply a breakout and retest to the top of the parallel with a great push back up into this consolidation range. But today changes that script alto together because we are testing these highs. Now guys again with the CPI number it was the hottest since 2023. So let's go back on the chart in 2023 and see what happened during that time frame when inflation was a concern and when the yields were a concern. You can see it actually happened right here in July of 2023 and we did have a draw down in the markets by about 11% and then we started rocketing higher. But when we hit the low right here was when the yields a 10-year yield hit 5%. Now we're not anywhere near 5% right now and we're going to uh give you a a road map and how we could actually get back up there.

[00:02:28]But basically we're right in this range starting to roll over. But if you if you imagine this, we're up near the highs on the charts. We're far off the highs back here when we started to decline in 2023.

[00:02:40]So this unravel could be a little sharper, particularly if the yields continue marching up. Now, if the S&P 500 breaks down into this parallel channel, the next area of support is going to be at $710.31.

[00:02:54]So that's a steep decline yet still that we could face on the S&P 500. Next up, the NASDAQ composite with the IXIC closing back within this parallel channel. I'll remind you on the weekly time frame, go all the way back out on this IXIC. You can see we've cleanly been contained within this inclining parallel since April of 2016 all up until the most recent dates when we surged up above. And right now, this looks like a breakout retest much like I described on the S&P 500. At least on the weekly time frame, we have not yet closed back within this parallel channel. So, we're going to be watching that very, very closely come towards the end of this week. For now, near-term dayby-day calculations, we're watching this close within. So, if you're a bear on the NASDAQ, you want to see price tomorrow get underneath these lows, 25,45 points, and then close underneath that level. If we do so, that then solidifies a break into this parallel channel and then the upside resistance will be the top of the parallel channel right around 25,233 points. Uh, next up, the semis. And guys, again, I I stress this uh because it's the truth and particularly with this AI uh data center rally that we've had, we've got the semis being a leading indicator. Now, the semis today, much like what occurred on Friday, put in a daily close underneath this inclining trend line. You could argue that it may be right on the trend line here and then we would have consecutive two days of closing or if it was slightly underneath. But this one is one I'm going to count because clearly we did close underneath. So, tomorrow in order to have these uh this rally in the semis hit the brakes even further, watch for price to close underneath today's low candle. If it does that, that does increase probabilities for more downside and SMH coming down here for a nice support range of the $520 level on top of the previous inclining parallel channel in which it broke down from. And you know what, guys? I got to remind you of a couple things. You got to always look on the larger time frame when you're viewing bigger swings and moves and stocks because it's all written for you right here in the charts. It's just a matter of you finding and isolating down these key signals that are on the charts. And what are you talking about, Drew? Well, I'm talking about right here on the weekly time frame of the SMH. Look at this beautiful weekly topping tail right here in the charts. That is your red flag, guys. It raised itself right here on my chart, showing that, guys, this is not a very good sign for SMH. I know the the narrative over the last couple weeks, it seemed like SMH was just going to continue rocketing up to 1,000 on the SMH, but that's clearly not the case with a big weekly topping tail. Now, the only way to negate that is to get a weekly close back above 642 points. So, we'll see if that ends up being the case in the future. However, near-term, this should be downward pressure on the SMH, as I said, highlighting the fact to come and tag the top of that parallel channel. Flipping over to the IXI uh C again into the weekly time frame. I remind you guys this is a sleeper hold setup. And if you don't know what a sleeper hold setup is, I teach this exactly in mastering the overnight trade. The sleeper hold. This is a beautiful pattern on this chart highlighting the fact that we were due for a turn in course correction. That's exactly what h what is going on on the IXIC. I went ahead and cashed in on some beautiful puts just the other day with this massive decline that we saw in the markets. I also uh am watching the SSPY which also has a sleeper hold setup in it right here on the weekly time frame.

[00:06:34]So it is playing out beautifully. It usually takes about three upwards of seven weeks for a sleeper hold to play out on the weekly time frame, but it is sure enough paying anybody out that did go ahead see that signal and jump on it.

[00:06:47]Guys, I recommend you doing it. Check out our courses. Mastering the overnight trade will keep you on the right side of a trade. Uh right here, next up into the IWM, we have a nice decline today down 1%. Not getting near the lows like the other indices, but you can see here this level will be in contention potentially as early as tomorrow for a level of support at $280.40.

[00:07:09]Following that, we got the low pivot that occurred just the other day yesterday at $277.62 62 cents followed by the 50% area of this parallel channel. So, it's a lot of support right here for IWM. Makes sense why we still are staying a little bit elevated on this chart in the near term. Next up into the 10-year 10-year pushed up ever so slightly today. Nothing to be too greatly concerned about, but it is starting to put in consolidation again underneath this resistance trend line right about 4.561%.

[00:07:40]flip over to the weekly time frame to show you guys in essence the 10-year yield has really been forming a bull flag ever since this high pivot back in October of 2023. This is the high pivot I was mentioning and referencing when we did get up to 5%. Look at that beautiful decline on the 10-year yield that allowed the S&P 500 as rest of the markets to go ahead and rally. Now, if we continue pushing up to 5% and don't see that sharp decline, that will put a boatload of pressure on the markets. And so, you'll be hoping if you're a bull that you see potentially if we have to get up to five, we do so quickly and then come right back down. Otherwise, maintaining up here, it could be a breakout scenario with this bull flag that's been in development for almost three years, guys. So, this is really a remarkable step. And if you look back further on the monthly, there's no reason why we can't go higher on the 10-year yield, guys. It takes a long time of consolidation to break to go lower. Look at this long time of consolidation that we have going right now that potentially wants to break and push higher than 5%. You can almost guarantee the housing market would be in serious trouble if we start having rates push up above five touching six and 7% with these elevated housing costs that came about after 2020 with the COVID lows when rates were all the way down here. Houses are nearly two or 3x in value right now. So that's going to be hard for anybody to be pulling the trigger on moving unless of course it's it's forced moving through work or job relocation etc. All right, next up into gold. Check out the daily chart on gold.

[00:09:16]Plummeting down today, plunging through this support level, $4,98, which is the low pivot back here on March uh 23rd of this year. Now, the next support's not far away, just above $4,000. If you see here, this level is one of my favorite levels. Whenever we have price breakdown, create consolidation, then it breaks above, and then retest. It's right here in this zone, $4,30. Just be watching for that to potentially catch support as early as tomorrow. Uh, next up, silver. Silver also following. Gold down on the charts, down 2.76% today, breaking down, further confirming itself from this inclining trend line. Next levels of support, 6102, followed by 5811 and 5509. But guys, even if we get a bounce, which we're we're due for a small short-term bounce on both silver and gold, I'm going to be waiting for price to get down here in the lower 50% of this parallel right around the $55 down to $50 range to start picking up some more physical silver for my own. Uh next up into US oil. Uh we go today. We did have a slight push higher in US oil. But we did also test the lower range of this pennant than in which we have been contained over the past uh several weeks. If you notice though, the break point to go lower still remains on this inclining trend line. $8866.

[00:10:40]Sounds like tensions and conflicts are going to increase in the near term.

[00:10:44]However, the US administration is saying they are still shuttling ships through the straight of Hormuz upwards of around 200 or so has mostly uh been said today.

[00:10:53]U but that that what didn't all happen today. That's been over the course of the last several weeks. Um, with this news coming out, we still have oil pushing up. It's almost like oil doesn't necessarily care anymore. Rising of conflicts, there's some ships that are getting through, not all. Oil's pushing up just barely. It's almost just kind of sluggish right down here at the bottom of this trend line. Should conflicts erupt and more uh devastation occur, I almost guarantee US oil is going to break straight through this declining trend line at 98.67 67 and then go up and start attacking the 10748 level that you see here on the charts. Uh next up into Nat Gas. Nat Gas did a great job today saving itself once again on this inclining trend line. But what it's doing, folks, now we had a lot of volatility today, but what it's doing near-term, it's moved down and put in three days of sideways price action.

[00:11:43]That's near-term bearish consolidation.

[00:11:46]Now, NAT gas can whip you up and down.

[00:11:48]No doubt about it. It is the widowmaker for charts for a reason. But right now, it's looking like it's tempting to want to break this trend line if it doesn't continue to save itself tomorrow. If we do break next support 303, followed by this level here at $2.90. Upward resistance will be on this inclining parallel right around $3.33.

[00:12:08]Uh next up into Bitcoin as we go, guys.

[00:12:11]And look what Bitcoin's doing today. Not too much. Basically sideways in price action. Most importantly, sideways after this nice plunge that we've seen. You can see price got rejected from getting back in that parallel. We tried to attempt to do so again today and got rejected again, putting in bearish consolidation, implying if we don't get inside this parallel anytime soon, we're going to be coming lower next support, $57,856, followed by my head and shoulders target, guys, $37,508.

[00:12:41]But I guarantee once and if we get under $50,000, there will be a lot of buyers that will step up to the play all the way down should price get down here to this head and shoulders measured move target. Next up, guys, got to talk about Nvidia. Nvidia is again the biggest company in the um stock market. It's a one to be followed. No doubt about it.

[00:13:00]Notice how price action is testing the low range of yesterday's candle. Matter of fact, we're closing right there in that range. Nice drop today of two of 3.73% on Nvidia. I highlight too this head and shoulders pattern is active. It hasn't even been retraced, guys. Uh we've just simply broken and come straight down on the charts. Look at the RSI and Nvidia getting closer towards this lower uh threshold at 30. Not quite there yet.

[00:13:27]Tells me we still could have selling pressure. As I said, minor support 19750 followed by a solid level of support down here at $191.88.

[00:13:36]either one of these, I'm anticipating price to potentially attempt to reattack the baseline of this head and shoulders pattern right around $211. We'll see if we get that in the coming days when price tags these levels. Uh next up, another loser on the day. Look at SMCI, guys. This stock today, they came out with news that they uh they're having a $7 billion offering on the table for their stocks. Now, SMCI had around 600 million shares. So that equivalates out to about 200 million shares that they're going to be unloading into the marketplace. That's a massive amount of shares considering there's about 500 million before this announcement out available to the public. So now SMCI is unloading about a third of what they hold back to raise money and capital for their AI data center buildouts. And this was not a pretty picture for the stock market on SMCI today. 27.98% decline barreling through all of these trading days. Look at all of that price action that that fought to get up here on the chart. How quickly it can become erased straight down on the chart.

[00:14:43]Closing here at $2927.

[00:14:46]As I said, they're looking to unload 200 million shares. Guys, what was the volume today? 186 million. But what's their average volume? 48.9 million. So, if only SMCI was the seller in any given day with average volume, it's going to take about four days for them to unload all of these shares. Now, there was a lot of other investors getting out of SMCI today, upticking this average volume, but just be careful with SMCI with this news out. It's going to take several days for their company to unload these 200 million shares. You likely could be seeing price on SMCI come down here and test the $25 level, the bottom range of this declining parallel channel in the near future.

[00:15:28]Yes, we've got a gap fill coming up around 2770. However, I still am going to be looking for more selling pressure likely to come on that stock, particularly if the rest of the market starts selling too. It's going to go down even further with their 200 million share offering. Uh next up, we've got uh NE. NE another nice down day in the markets today surpassing the lows that we saw here on Tuesday uh just yesterday. So we did end up down 6.97% starting to get a little bit oversold in the near term. Notice how we've got this gap fill coming up right around $29.

[00:16:02]Depending upon how many days it takes to get there we could be uh hitting that level at the exact same time that price intersects with this inclining trend line. in which case this should deliver a great near-term bounce potential up on the chart. So, be watching that. That would be a third hit of this inclining trend line and likely would generate a a good 5 to 10% bounce should and when price get down into that level. Be monitoring that gap fill and this inclining trend line connected from the pivots April 10th connected over there through May 13th. Uh next up we've got Hood. Hood was one of the winners today as we see here up 3.09%.

[00:16:39]it continues to attack the top portion of this declining parallel channel. All creating bullish consolidation in this range. Now, what's positive about this chart is this candle here on uh Tuesday the 9th as well as the candle here on uh June 5th. Both of which developed some decent wicks on the bottom implying price was trying to fight and get above that parallel. Well, we did that today, but then the selling in the market did not allow Hood to close above the top range of this parallel. So, be monitoring this tomorrow. Hood is trying to break out. It might not be able to do so in this market environment, but the breakout level for Hood is at 8740. You need a daily close above that. Then a continued push the following day, securing itself above this declining parallel in which then the next uh uh resistance in attack location would be here at $97.91.

[00:17:29]Next up, another winner on the day and this was LIIT. Notice that it did close up 3.83% today. got as high as pushing back in the top 50% of this parallel channel, but could not hold that by the end of the day. So, I see light with a couple trend lines that are really defining price action. You can see here price when it moved up put in a bull flag, then broke out of this declining trend line uh notated from these two high pivots from April 9th as well as this high pivot here on April 21st. Then watch that trend line all the way down.

[00:18:01]Every time LIIT's had a dip, we've come very close to this trend line and or pierced it and then received a bounce did so as early as yesterday. So very clearly this declining trend line is something to monitor on LIT. That would tell us the next support tomorrow.

[00:18:17]Likely will be here at $773.85 should we have a continued sell tomorrow. Now I also bring this trend line into your attention from a high pivot back here on March 2nd. Notice how that helped provide a major support level here for yesterday's price action and likely will still cause some pausing and selling once we come down to that level. That level's at $78,380.

[00:18:43]But notice how you're starting to stack up support one on top of the other and what could be for a good intraday day trade on LIT should we see more selling pressure hit it tomorrow. Uh next up into Oracle. Now, we're into Oracle today, guys, because Oracle's got earnings. And so, I want to see the price action that's going on today. Now, first thing, right after the bell, we went way high and way low, but now it looks like the bulls are are losing the battle right here as the bears push price lower. Now, trading post market at $193.50 support here at 19241 followed by 17876.

[00:19:17]Let's flip over to the after hours and see where everything went. We can see, as I said, we went much higher up here to 212 and we even went much lower at 18431. Let's get the 10-minute to see where we're at. So, you can see this level here that I highlighted at uh 19 whoop $192.35 is doing its best to try and hold price action right now. Yes, we pierced it, but we got right back above quickly. We pierced it again and we're right back above it. So, if we start settling in here, I would almost anticipate with this downward move, we're likely coming down further tomorrow down to the 178.880 level for that next level of major support on the chart of Oracle.

[00:19:57]Guys, a lot of red on the screen today.

[00:20:00]Uh, this is certainly a change in character from the last couple weeks when everything was green. I even had comments from you guys saying, "I bet Drew's getting tired of saying brand new all-time highs again." And hey, now the script has changed. Guys, thank you so much for watching. Don't forget to uh like and subscribe the video. Send this out to your friends and family so they too can learn technical analysis on the charts. Guys, we'll be back here tomorrow. Looking forward to wrap up the markets with you then. Until then, have a fantastic day, folks, and we'll see you on the charts.