What A Super El Niño Means For Jamaica | TVJ Smile Jamaica

Added: 2026-05-22

[00:00:07]Welcome back guys. Well, scientists are warning that a super not just a El Nino a super El Nino is building and that it could have significant consequences for Jamaica and the wider Caribbean from hurricane season to our water supply and our agriculture. I told him I love him but every time he comes on this set it means something serious is happening.

[00:00:31]Director at the Meteorological Service of Jamaica Evan Thompson is here and he's going to tell us more. Good morning everyone.

[00:00:38]>> Delia. [laughter] It's not bad news to see me you know. No, it's just the news that you carry.

[00:00:44]Um we say the term El Nino frequently now but still you know it's new to some.

[00:00:49]So when we say El Nino what do we mean?

[00:00:51]>> Okay. Well, El Nino that's it's actually a Spanish term. El Nino means the boy the boy child. Um and so this is a phenomenon that was noticed round about the time of Christmas many many years ago um and when it happened because of Christmas and celebration of the boy child at that time it was named El Nino but what it actually showed was that the the temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean which is near to Central America but over on the Pacific side those waters were found to be anomalously or unusually high. You know um they were higher than the normal the average that would take place and whenever that took place they noticed that there were other things that happened right across the globe with some changes in climate patterns um and all of that would upend the you know the kind of weather conditions that people experienced. So the El Nino was determined at that time. We have a problem with it in that it's not very regular. It's not something that happens like every two years at this time of the year but it just happens from time to time and it's kind of difficult to predict it long in advance. Sometimes you can predict predict it somewhat in advance because that's what is happening now.

[00:02:06]That we are seeing that an El Nino is developing and they're watching the oceans, watching the Pacific Ocean in particular to see how strong it actually is going to be.

[00:02:16]>> All right. So So we're here in the Caribbean and when we hear um you know an El Nino is developing, why should we as Caribbean people take it seriously?

[00:02:27]Particularly in a Jamaica, why is it so so important to us? Because the El Nino tends to change weather patterns across the globe, not just in the Eastern Pacific where it is actually originating, but it show it changes the way the winds operate in the upper atmosphere, how the the climate patterns develop across the area. So some areas, some parts of the the the continent of of North America will see um lots of rainfall, heavy rains, flooding occurring, more evidences more incidents of flooding Mhm. and you'll they'll also be seeing in some other areas that they have very dry conditions and drought. In the Caribbean and for Jamaica, what we tend to see from an El Nino is that it dries things out a bit. Um we would normally see less rainfall occurring in our general area and it also has a way of impacting even the hurricane season because, you know, with the with hurricane you need some kind of mixing of the winds in the upper atmosphere, but it can't be too strong. You can't have the shear that's taking place that could take place. And El Nino tends to create that sharing in the atmosphere that prevents the further development of tropical cyclones. Ah. So you see less of the hurricanes developing, but but also drier conditions.

[00:03:44]>> [clears throat] >> conditions. So we're talking about um it's it's the weather patterns, but but but realistically for us we're talking about food security That's right.

[00:03:52]>> threats, coral bleaching and other things.

[00:03:54]>> Exactly because along with the drier conditions they're also expecting from an El Nino that temperatures will be higher than normal. I don't know but these past couple of nights have, you know, Very wet.

[00:04:06]If you don't have air conditioning in your bedroom, you have a little challenge. You have to sleep with a sheet and that kind of a thing. So what we are seeing is that the temperatures are already rising here, not directly related to the El Nino but with an El Nino you're likely to see temperatures higher than normal. And this is going into the summer. So that is something worth I mean it's it's May and it's already this warm. And I'm thinking what's going to happen June, July? It's Yeah, yeah, yeah. And August is when the temperatures normally start to soar. So what will we experience? We need to prepare ourselves for that. We really need to Most Jamaicans are going to think, well, as you already explained it in terms of the hurricane season cuz coming on the you know, the back end of May, late side. I know a lot of people are really very concerned. Prepare though, still prepare. It's important. Hurricane season starts June 1. June 1. That's just in a couple of a little while, you That doesn't change. That doesn't change. So we still have to prepare for that but um drier conditions mean it's it's guys Yeah.

[00:05:06]>> It's going to impact fishing. It's going to impact And it will impact when you turn on your pipe where the water comes out of the >> me it's all right. Yeah, because you know, they of course, you know, our water authorities are going to have to take some action.

[00:05:19]>> Correct. Try to conserve what is in our storage areas and you know, to release it little by little, you know, if we actually start to see that drying because when we normally get our highest amounts of rainfall is September, October, mainly in October.

[00:05:34]>> October. And the problem is that El Nino is likely to be peaking as we go through October toward the end of the year. Ooh.

[00:05:42]And that means with reduced rainfall you're going to have less water during that rainfall season and that means less in storage to take us through the dry period which starts in December into March. So, that is the big concern, you know, where water is concerned. If we don't have enough in the storage and in the aquifers that is under the ground and flowing in our rivers at the time that the rainfall season takes place, then when we go through the dry >> Because as we're discussing, Evan, in my mind I'm like, "Okay, it's going to be happening over the summer and we're used to it that many of the summer." But if you're saying summer and then And then >> And then and then >> What we're seeing now is that it's become it's starting to develop. We're just about moving out of neutral conditions. The temperatures in the Pacific are getting warmer than normal already, but it hasn't really reached to what they will say an El Niño is here.

[00:06:32]But they expect that by June we're going to hear the El Niño is here and then it will build and build and build going through to the end of the year and into next year. It's expected to go through the January, February and March. It's just expected that it will develop >> Evan, I thought you were going to tell me that we're in I THOUGHT YOU WERE GOING to tell me that we're in the middle of the El Niño now, that's why it's so hot. No, all the models are saying it will develop and there is a little bit more confidence as we go forward that the models are correct and that we will see that increase in in the development of that El Niño. And as long as the sea surface temperatures rise to a half a degree above normal on average that's when they say there is an El Niño and that's a minimal El Niño, but when it gets to 1 degree above the norm, then they say it's a moderate and you know, it builds until what they're calling a super El Niño is where the temperature might be 2 degrees above normal and that could really mean severe challenges for some. Lots of flooding in some areas, bush fires with in some areas and the droughts and and you know, as you mentioned food security and you know that that means rising prices and we have already seen that with gas.

[00:07:47]>> and and that is why you see to be forewarned is to be forearmed and I feel like you know it's May and and if we are already understanding that this El Nino is coming.

[00:07:58]>> Yes. And and it's development maybe it may not be super it might be super and super is so guys best ways we can think of you know how we going to get water to be stored start practicing how are we going to you know manage how we use water the greenhouses that Minister Green has been talking about we have to get them up and start storing the food now. That's right and you know these days we have to think more than one hazard occurring at a time so now we would normally be preparing for a hurricane season. Yes we must prepare for the hurricane season it's really just one hurricane that can cause a big issue and we saw that last year.

[00:08:34]>> that. One more could cause devastation again but along with the chance of a hurricane you have the El Nino presenting so many other challenges and you know you you have to prepare for numerous hazards whenever we you know because of where we are in the in the region.

[00:08:51]>> Correct it's a lot it's a lot Evan and we have to put ourselves our Ministry of Health will tell you in terms of temperatures too when when things like these happen.

[00:08:59]Then you have the vector borne diseases and all those kinds of things. Heat stroke or or people are most vulnerable the children that are outside is a holy but things we need listen. Guy what Children go back to school in September and the El Nino may be at its peak and then you're talking about the temperatures what is going to happen in the schools we have to start to think you know if it really does become a super El Nino as they call it or a major you know a it it makes sense for us to start to think about how we're going to face those challenges.

[00:09:29]>> How are we going to face the challenge schools if you don't have water tank or anything about a water tank now because as you say you know if no water you're talking about hygiene That's right.

[00:09:38]>> as well. And how do we protect It's a lot. And I feel that one of the things that's great about what you guys do at the Meteorological um service of Ja- is is the predictability That's right.

[00:09:51]>> puts us on our toes ahead of time. And we're getting better with that. Not just Jamaica, but I mean globally. And so we benefit from that um increased use of technology. Um likely artificial intelligence is being brought into the mix as well. So we're getting better predictions of these things, and it's becoming more and more um the level of confidence is increasing. So I think you can rest assured that we will have an El Niño.

[00:10:15]How strong it will be, we we kind of watching, but it seems that it will be a strong one. So it may be a strong one.

[00:10:21]To be forewarned again is to be forearmed. And we don't have to wait until it's upon us to say, "What are we going to do? What are we going to do?"

[00:10:27]We know it We know it's coming. So let's start preparing. Thank you. Yeah. Always good to This one was a good one cuz we we get we get advanced notice, right?

[00:10:37]>> [laughter] >> Evan Thompson, director at the Meteorological Service Jamaica.

[00:10:42]Um we're going to take a quick break.

[00:10:43]The second edition of news is next.

[00:10:49]>> [music]