Arnab On Why 2026 Assembly Results Are India’s Most Significant Elections Since 2024

本站添加: 2026-04-28

[00:00:00]I just want to begin by saying that the result on the on the 4th of May will be the most important result since the national election mandate since the middle of 2024. This is the most single most significant political event since the Lok Sabha elections. I'm not underplaying other state elections. No, I'm not underplaying other state elections. Now, my second point is that this is the most important election for one party and that is the BJP.

[00:00:40]I'm not underplaying other parties. But I'm saying tonight that for the BJP, for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for the BJP president, for Amit Sha and for all the BJP chief minister and other candidates, this is the most important election since the Lok Sabha elections and I can qualify that. But before that, I just wanted to make this point absolutely clear. Ladies and gentlemen, there are multiple reasons for this.

[00:01:10]The first point is this. Let's consider these four states. Why this is important for the BJP.

[00:01:18]Let's start with Assam. In Assam almost as per hima 40% Muslim vote. If the BJP can win a se a state where it is believed to there is believed to be as per the chief minister himself a 40% Muslim vote. Then what can be more significant than that? But again ladies and gentlemen remember what I said. This is the most important important elections in 2024 because in the middle of 2024 there were all these naysayers who said BJP is over.

[00:01:56]Modi has lost his aura of invincibility.

[00:01:59]There was an Indian Express editorial saying verdict 2024 is not just a government but also an opposition for a government but also an opposition.

[00:02:08]Balance has been restored wrote people like Prattab Bhanua.

[00:02:14]Then there were editorials which said needing help to stay in power. Modi has lost his aura of invincibility.

[00:02:21]All these people are changing their opinion now. But there were all these people who were saying that uh suffocating shadow has lifted almost as if the BJP was over. Is it really? Was it really? Where are those people today who said BJP was over in the middle of 2024? They were so happy. So completely happy. What happened after that? The BJP won 48 seats in the Hana assembly polls. The BJP won Maharashtra, Delhi, Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh emerged as a single largest party, second largest party even in Jabu and Kashmir. And in the meantime, if you go by the premise that any party to provide an alternative at a national level needs to have 150 seats. Many people thought the that Congress was already there. And I know all this Lutian's brigade, all these turn codes, all these people who swing with whichever way they feel the wind is you know blowing. Where are those people? They said Congress is back. It's a matter of time before Congress takes over Delhi. What happened after that? Ladies and gentlemen, Congress ruled three states then. They th r rule three states today. Himachel, Telangana and with a thin margin and with great difficulty Karnataka. The importance of these results therefore is if you look at the map of India 2024 2026. Now imagine to that if Bengal were to be added and Assam stays and if through an alliance they can make some kind of an entry in Tamil Nadu the map of India significantly changes.

[00:04:01]Ive told you about Assam. Now Bengal is super important because if you look back at history the BJP did not exist as a party when the left took over in Bengal late 60s7s this is the first ever opportunity for the BJP to enter if you look at the graph of the BJP it is truly meteoric from zero to where they were in the last elections and therefore Bengal is so significant it is the first election where the whole power shift happens No left, no Congress, no thrumbul congress if BJP comes in this time. Now I want to talk about Tamil Nadu. They've taken a practical decision of being a number two player to the IDMK. They've sidelined Anamalai to make the ADMK happy. Now I don't know the way Vijay will go how many seats Vijay will take.

[00:04:52]Many people believe that Vijay is taking a big chunk but without a doubt BJP is making a quiet entry. It may take 5 to 10 years to expand this but they are making a quiet but significant entry in Tamil Nadu. And finally look at Kerala.

[00:05:07]Kerala is the same position that the BJP was in in the late '9s and early 2000s.

[00:05:13]A party between 10 to 20% share. That's exactly the challenge the BJP faces today that the uh the BJP faced in Assam earlier when it was a fight was between the AGP Assam Ghana Parishad and the Congress party. than the BJP from 5 10 15 20% consolidated Hindu vote. Nobody thought the BJP would be in power in Assam 15 years back and look at the condition there today. It could be a similar situation in Kerala. Mark my words, the BJP is making a gradual entry. Therefore, I once again want to wrap up by saying that this election is significant. It is the most significant for the BJP and it is decisively the most important election since the Lok Sabha elections. If the BJP wins Assam and can win Bengal and can gain vote share in Kerala and gain in the form of an alliance in Tamil Nadu then trust me this is the strongest ever BJP since 2014. And who would have believed that after 12 years of Narendra Modi as prime minister, it would still be peing not past its peak.