Iran: From Blockade to Ground Invasion & Russia's New War Strategy | Stas Krapivnik

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Welcome back everybody to neutrality studies. My name is Pascalota and I'm joined today again by Stannis Lafra Pifnik from Moscow Stas. Welcome back.

[00:00:09]>> Thank you. Always a pleasure.

[00:00:11]>> Great having you back. You're always giving us good updates and uh we need to talk about uh Iran again. Of course, now in the context of the now four, five days old US blockade uh that is happening. Um, can you maybe give me your interpretation of why the US decided to blockade a straight which it wants to unblock from the from the Iranian uh from Iranian control. What's the rationale behind there?

[00:00:40]>> Okay. So uh during the negotiations uh and I was uh talking with uh professor Mandi who I'm friends with uh what he was telling me you know they they basically went uh on all the points uh and and made a found agreements common ground and all the points uh there was discussion on uh removing Iran's nuclear material to a third party to Russia for storage in Russia. uh that that's not a new issue that by the way that that proposal's been uh up several times before uh or you know going back to uh strict uh strict regulations which the Iranians uh had agreed upon when Obama uh concluded right concluded there the the uh the with him that Trump promptly ripped up uh when they got to the streets of Harmoose uh that's the problem because the US kind of wants to own the straits of Harus. See, there there's four choke points uh ma major choke points in the world for trade. Uh Panama, the Red Sea, straight to Harmus, the Red Sea from both ends of course uh as as or just the whole body of the Red Sea straight to Harmus. Uh and the uh the straight the waters that go past between Indonesia and Malaysia, go past Singapore, but those you can actually go around, right?

[00:02:04]Because they're still islands. this it takes a it's longer but you can go around further down Indonesia and swing around by Java. So that's the hardest thing to control because there's plenty of ways to get around it. It's just a little bit more expensive. But the other three points are a choke points. Uh now the Red Sea is not a reality for the Americans uh because on the one side is the Sewish Canal which uh the Egyptians aren't exactly too thrilled to surrender for obvious reasons. though that the the israelis claimed that as part of greater Israel um that one day that's that's going to have to be uh resolved as an issue. Uh on the other side is the the Houthis and well that the US has already tried to control those straits uh once twice before that didn't quite work out either. But with this case, they were insisting on uh sovereignty over the Straits of Har basically uh for Iran just to give up sovereignty and and step back from its own territory. Now, believe you me uh if the Americans get that, they'll be charging tolls.

[00:03:08]>> Yeah.

[00:03:08]>> Uh as well. That's I mean that's 100% guaranteed and probably a lot more than $2 million. Um so we have that the and that that was of course a stopping point. uh that they could get go further on and then the American team left and what uh uh Vandi was telling me was uh not I mean ju just to understand the difference too the Iranian team when they went down there uh he was part of that team they went to Kamani Kamani said you know I trust you negotiate you got full authority negotiate the American team uh two Zionist agents and and Vance uh said Wood Whit and Kushner because God what would you do without two uh New York real estate mogul uh who answered it out in Yahoo for God's sakes uh but that's not enough obviously the Vance uh called Trump 12 times during those negotiations okay obviously uh okay at least you could say you know Trump is his boss okay so you could go with that but then he also kept calling Netanyahu.

[00:04:24]>> Yeah.

[00:04:25]>> From what Mandi was telling me uh and giving reports to Netanyahu asking getting his instructions.

[00:04:34]So let that sink in. The vice president of the United States is negotiating a end to a a war that America started while we were at it and is getting his in marching orders from the prime minister of a quote client country.

[00:04:51]>> Yeah.

[00:04:52]>> Uh I mean yeah >> was Marani was telling me the same on my show. It's quite incredible but apparently this is just how it works.

[00:04:59]It's like constant triangulation right between the between the capitals.

[00:05:05]Yeah, I mean it's marching orders from Kif, of course, >> but but it's worse than that because um Netanyahu, this is like a uh an exercise in uh shaming or an exercise in uh in uh u well shaming as that's the best way put it. uh he blurted it out that yeah I you know that Vance was calling me and I I was you know I was there basically it's got two of his own agents there to begin with uh absolute assets of uh of Netanyahu and he's uh giving marching work and he's bragging about this right he he is he is putting them in their place right and and he's showing he's showing the world when he's doing that that that the Americans are below his feet. Uh you know that he he's he's the boss, >> which goes very well with the rest that they've been doing. I mean, there was the the German chancellor the other day that that had a tiny little bit of critique about uh Israel uh uh in the I think it was his indiscriminate bombings in in Lebanon or something like that.

[00:06:17]Then the uh the uh foreign minister of Iran immediately immediately lashed out and said like we're not taking any orders from any kind of German if you forgot who what you did to us 80 years ago and so on. It's quite insane. I mean they're really putting these other whites in their place beneath way beneath them. And so they did the same with the with the negotiations in Thran.

[00:06:38]Of course, >> of course, this is, you know, this this is all going in the end backfire massively on the Israelis. Um, never mind, you know, when when the traditional uh Jews are saying, you know, um what was one of the guys that said u uh Hitler made me afraid of being a Jew. Uh Israel's made me ashamed of being a Jew.

[00:07:07]Uh that's you know the the split is massive now from uh it it was before in religious grounds. Now it's just on something much worse and and the support uh for Israel is just collapsing everywhere because I mean they're looking at people that are have totally gone off the reservation. They they have lost all sight of of the of the uh shoreline and are out there in in the deep and are getting more psychotic by the day.

[00:07:36]Yep.

[00:07:37]>> Uh they're getting meaner, eviler, and more psychotic every single day. And they're flaunting it. They're absolutely flaunting it.

[00:07:45]>> Yeah. Um, may I ask you though now the I read this news um of TAS, the TAS news agency that says um that the Russian security council is warning that these negotiations could be masking a uh a planned strike I mean boots on the ground against Iran because the US is still amassing troops uh not too far off from Iran. Do you did you hear anything about this? And and do you think the US is preparing something now in the cover of these of these negotiations?

[00:08:18]>> Um what's that term? Captain obvious.

[00:08:22]>> Yeah, but but the ground invasion I mean preparing a ground invasion would be quite an insane thing to do. Um we talked about this before, but it it's not getting any ser.

[00:08:34]>> Yeah. Um it's not getting say look the sest thing at this point. The s thing would have been never to start this, but obviously we've gone past that for the last month and a half and we continue to sail down river further and further from reality. The sest thing we have that Trump could do now is allow this blockade to continue and peter itself out. It's it's very hard to understand any of what this blockade has done because on the American side, oh, we've controlled everything. The Iranian side, yeah, our ships are still going. Um, so I I cannot imagine exactly American ships coming up to Iranian coast where Iranian ships are are hugging the coast heading into Pakistani waters and trying to stop them. They're a very short missile flight from be becoming a reef.

[00:09:19]Um, if if they do that first first of all let's begin with the fact that the US Navy can't do this for very long. Uh, the US Navy is stretched to a breaking point. uh its mission uh has continued to be the same mission it was during the Cold War with less than half the ships they had before. Uh a lot of the ships are broken and most of the aircraft carriers are broken. Uh they're underst staffed because they can't get enough people in. They're overstressed. I mean just uh the Ford itself 11 months at sea with two very very short stops uh for re supply and fix the people are are broken and they're worn out. Uh and this is the entire US Navy. If you talk to people like uh for example talking to Cameron McGregor, he's a former Navy officer and like even back when he left few years back, it was already basically broken.

[00:10:13]Uh and it's just gotten worse. He's the people he's in his classmates academy that he's in contact with say it's just it's getting horrible. People are leaving. Uh you can't keep people in. Uh and a lot of the people that are in are not fully trained. Uh and you're not fully So you it's huge issues. It's absolutely huge issues and they if they continue this mission they'll just drive themselves uh into the ground permanently.

[00:10:41]>> Right.

[00:10:42]>> So the pro you know the best thing would do because what they're trying to do is okay so Iran's not letting everybody out then we won't let Iran out. That way nobody gets any order which of course just exasperates even further uh the world uh crisis.

[00:10:59]It kills American PR because even I I mean you've got America's vassels. I'm not going to call them anything but vassels. Uh you got the Europe uh the EU vassels uh of America was trying to spend all this on Iran's fault even though that it was their owner that struck first or their two owners that struck first. Uh and Iran responded.

[00:11:22]Haven't warned that it would do that.

[00:11:23]But now you can't even spin it that way because oh it's the Americans. Uh so it's it's a major PR hit. Uh Iran apparently has already had a short conversation with Saudi Arabia that uh if you either back us or that little uh pumping those little pumping stations in the the Red Sea, they're not going to exist either. Uh and you're not going to get any oil out period. Uh which would collapse the uh the Saudi uh economy. So you're you're in a in a very bad place now.

[00:11:57]If the, like I said, if the Americans would would do this right at this point, they keep the blockade in and it just peters out over a couple of weeks and then Trump declares victory for the MAGA that's left because most of the mega left, uh, the people that voted for peace, the people that voted for what the Vance position was earlier, you know, take care of the issues inside and there are mammoth issues inside the country. It's just collapsing. It's it's rotted out. It's collapsing. There's issue education is third world medicine is third world you know people can't afford housing uh the young people can't afford a life period it's it's a total collapse of society that's what they should be construed that's what they voted for all those people have left people that are left in mega are groupies they're fanatics they're groupies you know they're the people that bought Trump coins uh they're the people like yeah who are backing Trump but screaming at the Pope oh yeah because the pope suggested that oh maybe we should have peace you know like yeah where's that in Christianity for them you know that these are these are people that are blind faith will do what believe anything that Trump uh spits out and will thank him for it so if Trump for that base which is still a very small base compared what he had uh but if he told him tomorrow victory you know get on an aircraft carrier and declare victory like George Bush Jr did they'd believe it they'd accept it Either way, he's screwed when it comes to the elections at this point. The US is in a deep recession. It may be in a depression by the time this is over. So, it but that would be the best case scenario.

[00:13:37]>> Hey, very brief intermission because I was recently banned from YouTube. And although I'm back, this can happen anytime again. So, please consider subscribing not only here but to my mailing list on Substack. That's pascalota.substack.com.

[00:13:50]The link's going to be in the description below. And now, back to the video.

[00:13:54]So the the question to me really is what are they currently planning? I mean that's something more is going to come is obvious but what it will be because now we have again we have tasks that that that reports that Russia security council is is expecting a ground invasion. On the other hand we have this kind of you know sane people thinking about what is possible. they would they would argue as you do like let's let the this blockade kind of thing taper out or whatn not. One thing that would be very very reasonable for me to what what comes next is something that happened in the first and the second world war when Britain uh um blockaded its enemies but because you cannot control the shorelines all of them what you do is you introduce the idea of naviserts to tell third states that they need to apply in your office in your embassy for the right to go anywhere. Um, so you know, the United States could do that very easily. Say like, "Okay, anyone who wants to pass through the straight of Formoose, you need an you need to apply with us in Washington to go through there. And if you don't do that, then we're going to blacklist you and we might board you or whatn not or we might just sanction sanction those ships."

[00:15:06]That would be relatively easy to do and straightforward. Um, but this administration is not is is not one that goes for the for the for the doable, I believe. So, do you think that a ground invasion is actually on the cards?

[00:15:20]>> Well, for what you're saying with the uh before get on the ground invasion, what you're saying about uh you know, registered with our office, that that'll work to a degree. Look uh you know, the US blockade on Cuba. Yeah, everything's great until the Russian tanker arrived with a a frigot and an attack submarine as escort. And what did the US do? Got the hell out of the way. There's another one coming and it's going to have the same escort. and they're going to get the hell out of the way because if they don't, it's war. It's war with a nuclear superpower uh that can uh with an army that can destroy the American army.

[00:15:52]That's it may hit hard for some people that to hear that, but that's the reality of it. Uh and yeah, what are you going to do when the Chinese arrive with the same thing with a convoy of tankers and three or four destroyers? Do you want to start a war with China now? I in the US. Well, it's sometime in the future, but it's not ready for that.

[00:16:13]>> Yeah, but you can fragment with with a with a move like this, you could fragment the fleets, right? You can create you can create chips that can only go from China to to to Iran and and and nothing else. And for the Russians, I mean, you kind of inconvenience everybody. But that would be something you >> You're inconvenience. But here's an idea. You know what what happens? First of all, what happens if China takes in say 10 tankers and then re sells resells the extra oil to Southeast Asia? What happens if Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam decide to go, hey, why don't we for form a coalition and send in our convoy of tankers with our warships? Is the US ready to fight a coalition of countries in Southeast Asia? I mean, when you start looking at this, this can expand out very very quickly. People people are not dumb.

[00:16:57]They sit there, they pay attention. Ah, okay. They step back when military force arrives. Now, having said that, ground invasion, you know, if you want to give the gift that keeps on giving, it'll keep on giving every time there's an American soldier that gets killed, it'll be a gift that keeps on giving to Iran.

[00:17:14]I mean, this is this is basically Trump can take a nail gun to his temple and just start nailing his his head in. That that would be that level of stupidity.

[00:17:25]Uh will they do that? Well, you know, just they just may do that. Uh there there I think the the White House has gotten insane enough. Um I was uh interviewing a a friend of mine, Robert Barnes, uh and he's uh constitutional lawyer in the US. By the way, he's his big uh his his big client right now to defend is the Amish because apparently uh federal, state, and local governments are going after the Amish. Again, who goes after the Amish? Well, apparently they they're now the target.

[00:18:00]second half of the interview, uh, we're talking about, uh, his direct contacts in the White House, the present White House, and they're telling them that, you know, Trump's gone off the deep end.

[00:18:11]He's totally off the deep end. Vance is, uh, running like a rat and a wheel, uh, trying to keep all of this go from going to nuclear war. Uh, that, you know, he's he's the rational one, try Vance is basically given up on his, uh, presidential run because Trump sunk him.

[00:18:27]Uh but he's trying to keep the the he's trying to keep it all from uh you know going nuclear and and kind of I guess wants to have his kids grow up uh and not in a bunker. Uh so this this is the point we're at. Um should the 25th amendment be used? More than likely yes.

[00:18:45]Uh we're we're getting there if we're not there already.

[00:18:49]>> Right. So um there was this argument also made by Trita Parcy you know the um the chief of the um the think tank responsible statecraft uh um I think and he he his argument was that actually now that there is a ceasefire in place and if no side starts shooting again I mean the this actually puts the United States into the stronger seat um because under the the war scenario where they were fighting each other the the while Iran had to sustain a lot of damage since they since they were standing every single day that it continued like developed the war in their favor. Now that everything is standing still and the United States has time again to replenish and rearm and uh and everything, the the balance of forces is has actually tilted the other way around and Iran is actually structurally in the in the weaker seat, especially because if it started shooting again without being shot at, it would probably make uh Russia and China quite angry and the and be again the seen as the source of instability. uh how do you what do you make out of that argument and how do you think that the ceasefire the the diplomacy and politics of the ceasefire is actually developing for Iran?

[00:20:09]>> Well, we obviously saw from the Russian side that warning is an acknowledgement of reality. Uh so that that's if you if you read it a little bit sideways, that warning is a backup uh to the Iranians.

[00:20:23]You know, we we understand that the Americans are probably getting ready to attack you again. Um, so don't don't be surprised and we're not going to be surprised or shocked. Not quite as as sure of the Chinese because this is a playing on Chinese weaknesses. Uh, the Americans are. But as far as rearming, sure, if this holds for the next uh two and a half to three years, the Americans will be rearmed maybe. I mean, we we're talking infantismally small rates of production. Uh, the Patriot is a is a prime example. the Patriot. Uh first of all, all of these missiles are handbuilt because that maximizes their cost. That maximizes the profit because the US military normally runs off of a a system called cost plus, which is an asinine system. So if you if the item cost $100, uh say cost plus is cost plus 10% 10% profit as an example. So if the item cost $100, you charge $110 and you get $10 profit.

[00:21:23]If you can make the item cost or at least on paper cost $500, then you get a $50 profit. If it only cost $100, you maximize the cost of the I the item not by automated production, but by doing it by hand. Look, it's every one of them is a master at his skill and he's got to put the plug in each plug separately and so on. And you can inflate the cost infant to uh in infinitely on that and you maximize your profits. But that of course has big problems because you know you you kind of have a a high-end on production that you really can't expand easily. You cannot set up a second line of production like an auto be just doesn't exist. Um and and you have to hire you have to get more and more people uh and the space has to be larger larger. So you you get certain constraints. Uh the military-industrial complex uh promised Trump to double and triple their production. Okay. Let's say they double production of Patriot missiles. So right now they're producing somewhere between 35 and 40 Patriot missiles per month. Okay. So we double it to 80 to 100. Okay. How long does that hold up? That that's a day. That's maybe two days. And that's what you produce in a month. So you cannot the the volume that's demanded and we're not even talking about Ukraine and the EU at this point. uh the volume that's demanded just uh I'd say on the Iranian side to to stop the Iranian incoming missiles you you can't produce enough obviously uh um attack miss uh uh offensive missiles you know the high uh the high accuracy missiles the new missiles they're producing they're supposed to replace the attacks they're all gone uh there was a very small batch of them basically they tested them but they're gone right They have to be built. The attackums are a very limited quantity too uh to begin with. Uh there's there was less than a thousand attacks uh before this conflict started. Uh a lot of them were being shipped. The US I think built like two two and a half thousand attacks. A thousand were sold uh to places like uh South Korea and uh Taiwan. And then uh another 400 or so went to Ukraine uh and and have been used up and the and then they were using additional attacks on Iran. Uh but they have a very short range. They're like 350 kilometers. So they're relatively short range. I mean you can fire them from uh Baharin or Qatar into Iran, but you're not going to go very deep into Iran. Obviously Ron's giant. Uh so there's that problem. Uh okay. Okay. So, tomahawks, tomahawks are produced some like around also about 10 months. Uh obviously, and again, it's handmade, you know, hand assembled. Uh so you no matter what you do, you have major issues. Sure. Could you expand this?

[00:24:18]Yes, you could build new factories, uh automated factories to to produce them, but you're having two, three years to build a factory like that. It's not something you just flip your fingers, uh and snap your fingers and it it appears flip the lights on and there you go. I mean, this this takes a long time, like it or not, that it takes a long time that they uh which continues to amaze me on the American that the Americans knowing their issues with patriots, seeing their issues with with patriots in Ukraine, how they're just gobbling them up and, you know, their very limited uh ability to actually intercept. You'd think by now, I mean, it's it's been four years, you think by now they would have had a factory at least in the works. No, there's nothing been started. Uh they never uh put the money in uh for the investments. So there there's very limited what they can do in a month or two months. They can scrap together whatever reserves they have left. Uh they can uh buy out their allies uh and and get their missiles that they've sold them previously. Uh and they've already started uh to three weeks ago they were pulling missiles out of South Korea uh out of uh Japan. So, in the middle of the night, of course, like the thieves in the night, they're pulling everything out.

[00:25:35]But again, okay, so now what? You've bought yourself maybe a week or two, two weeks more.

[00:25:41]Unless you think you can suddenly conquer or destroy the Iranian government in another week or two weeks of battle, you're back to square one where again, you don't have the missile capacity to intercept. Again, Iran continues to uh strike. Again, you look like a fool.

[00:25:59]I don't know. Shouldn't Shouldn't all of these shouldn't all of this be indicators that the United States at the moment actually doesn't have what it takes to do a ground invasion? Doesn't have what it takes in order to to continue the war? I mean, not enough not enough uh missiles and so on to fire, not enough replenishment, not enough not enough men, not enough air superiority. I mean, they told they told the world that they had Iran was open skies and whatnot. and they've their stuff has been brought down time and time again. So all of these would tell us that the United States lacks the ability to actually uh continue. So this would indicate to me that they would that they should have all the incentive to maintain the ceasefire if not go to a full peace agreement at least maintain the ceasefire because if it goes back to uh shooting at each other the United States is at at the shorter end of the stick for the first time in a long time. And maybe let's just add to this. I don't know if you've heard about this or not that was was informed this morning by by uh Rhina Rup you know that apparently a very very important US drone of the type MQ4C Triton went missing uh near or over Iran. Uh and this is this is a surveillance surveillance drone. I cannot confirm whether that that is actually the case or not but I've heard about it um um or this has been reported on in several several media outlets. Um, have you heard about it and and do you know what we can deduce from that instance?

[00:27:29]>> I I haven't heard about it yet. Uh, but then again, I was it taking my three hours of sleep between >> two in the morning show and uh yeah, so I I I still got to go and and go through uh the news. That's that's a that's the big problem with 24-hour news cycles.

[00:27:49]The human body and brain isn't built for that.

[00:27:51]>> Yeah. You know the the problem at the moment is also that this kind of news we cannot be sure whether this is the tears say I mean it's circulating that this Navy MQ4C Triton uh disappeared and and people are now speculating whether the Iranians managed to divert it because they managed to do so once in 2013 with another drone that diverted like pretend to give it like >> a Reaper. Yeah. with a with a clampage on it >> and get it to land in Iran and then basically you know reverse engineer the whole thing. So and this MQ4 MC4 MQ4C would be an even bigger uh feast because it is a surveillance drone with latest surveillance technology and so on and so forth. Um but again like all of this shouldn't this actually give send all of the signals to Washington that what they need to do is to prevent um prevent again the the hostilities from resuming um or what do how do you read it?

[00:28:51]>> Oh uh Pascal if we were dealing with absolutely rational players of course of course if we were dealing with rational players this whole war wouldn't have started. Uh but we're not dealing a with rational players in Washington and b as we've seen in these negotiations. The people people behind the uh the wheel of the bus are not Americans. They're Israelis.

[00:29:13]You know, Israel's agreed to this quote ceasefire with Lebanon. Uh that's not really a ceasefire and it's just a Lebanese government pathetically su betraying its own people. Uh pathetically surrendering a third of its own country. Uh, basically it's a Quezling government. Uh, if nobody understands what Queensland where the word Quezland comes from, look up World War II history, Norway. Uh, the the chancellor of Norway who was a was a Nazi after the German occupation uh was his family name was Quezingling. So he got he got famous, you know, whether he liked it or not. Don't betray your own people, in other words. Uh but yeah, so they they betrayed their own country and Hezbollah is continuing to fight. Uh nobody stopped that. Uh so what the Israelis do next, you know, I don't know. Uh but Lebanon uh is part of the uh of this deal. Uh it's a it's a breaking point for this deal if the Israelis continue uh doing what they've been doing, which is genocide. Uh and and interesting enough, by the way, the Israelis instead of playing one one portion of Lebanon off of another portion as they've always done, uh usually allying with the Christians against the Sun the Shiites and leaving the Sunnis alone. They've started just massacring everybody across the board. They they don't care this time around. They're uh they're going for uh and it's not occupation. It's annexation minus the population. It's genocide and annexation of territory.

[00:30:45]>> Yeah. So, >> and of course But that's that's guard seat.

[00:30:50]>> Yeah. And and Israel can of course at any point in time like ruin this uh ruin any kind of process that the United States might want to go to. On the other hand, uh you know the ceasefire has a hard stop. It's a 15-day ceasefire and that will end in about a week from now.

[00:31:05]Um and Iran at any point in time can say like 15 days are over. We are starting shooting again. So it is a sunset clause on the uh on on not shooting. So um uh overall this puts tremendous pressure on Washington doesn't it? So in in Moscow though what do you hear about what the assessment is of this of the impact of this war now on the United States? I mean there must be people in Moscow quite excited about the United States getting bogged down in such a such a such an affair.

[00:31:37]>> Oh of course I mean that's beyond a doubt. That doesn't mean that we that Moscow wants to sacrifice Iran. It doesn't. and it's supporting Iran quite actively as much as actively as you can when you're fighting 50 other countries.

[00:31:49]Uh yesterday there was a list of uh of drone manufacturers uh that came out. Um I would hope that they heard the message that they're going to be targeted um but probably not >> drone manufacturers >> in Europe in Europe that are directly manufacturing drones for Ukraine. Uh unfortunately I think until strikes start uh into Europe uh they're not going to hear anything. uh these people are tonedeaf. I mean just you to understand how insane uh the European the European leadership and the people that support them which is the majority of the population really are uh how out to launch these people are. Um they were doing a thought exercise uh well kind of thought exercise planning exercise uh on preparing to take mass uh casualties uh combat casualties. Uh so they were checking their hospitals uh and things like that evacuation routes to be able to handle uh casualties uh from a big war with Russia and they were planning on taking a uh accepting a thousand wounded a day.

[00:32:58]Like, are you insane?

[00:33:01]Right now, Ukraine has taken about 2,000 wounded per day, and Russia's fighting with an ar with with one arm and one leg tied behind its back with another 350,000 troops that haven't been pulled in sitting on the on the sideline plus the rest of the military along the borders. uh you know if you're talking a full war with Russia uh from the European Union from European army which would just be NATO minus the US uh you're talking about mass mobilization off the Russian side obviously mass mobilization on the European side you're talking about 30 40 million people fighting you you'll be taking tens of thousands of wounded per hour and these people really have no basis insanity uh when they're when they're looking at this and yet that's what they keep talking about And with Hungary go becoming basically a vassal state back to Vanderline, you you're looking at war in Europe at 100%. Okay. Nothing's 100%.

[00:33:58]99 plus.

[00:33:59]>> Yeah. But you see, the sick thing is that now now starting the game of trying to bait the Russians into attacking these uh missile and drone facilities in the EU uh is actually part of the game, right? just the way that trying to bait Russia into attacking Ukraine was part and parcel of the game of of of the game. The moment Russia stepped over these Ukrainian I mean officially like went into into this Ukrainian territory with like with on 24th of February 2022 was the day when they opened the big and good champagne bottles over there in Brussels. So in the in the same way then now baiting Russia into actually attacking these production facilities in the in the rear while all the all the all the way um claiming that they're not part of the war. We're not part of the war. We're not part of the war. We're just supporting Ukraine with all of these with all of this equipment and then having the equipment destroyed will give them everything they need to like, look, we've been right. The Russians are attacking us. We told you all the way that they would attack us and now they're attacking us and now we all need to fight. All 450 million of us need to go and fight the Russians. I mean, that's exactly the sick name of the game. So, what what would Russia do against this one?

[00:35:16]>> Well, first of all, at this point, Russia has no choice. Uh what we're looking at is uh they their strategies obviously is to uh they're looking at to double their drone production onto the Russian battlefield, overwhelm Russian defenses and just strike everything inside of Russia. U and they're the while the Russian defenses are ahead of the game. You can't stop 100% of anything when you put enough uh you put enough targets into the uh into the area. And while the Russians are still ahead of the game and can more or less handle most of what's coming through, uh if they continue to uh rev up uh their production, uh no, Russia cannot rev up uh uh anti-aircraft systems as fast as the West can rev up production of drones. So this puts it to a point of either Russia survives or Europe dies.

[00:36:12]Oh, that's that's quite literally that's quite literally the choice. I personally vote for Russia uh all things considered and so does 150 million other people. Uh so the government will have backings.

[00:36:25]What they don't understand though is this will of course very quickly expand uh and this will very quickly expand uh in both directions. uh and what they're going to be facing with a a a con a subcontinent uh that has a uh very um h has a shortage of gas, has a shortage of oil, has a shortage of food is about to get much much worse because once this expands and counter strikes and strikes and counter strikes and they'll go very quickly at that point and now you're looking at uh what's the next thing Russia's going to strike once this continues expanding and that becomes the energy infrastructure in Europe. Europe that becomes uh the leadership in Europe. Um I wouldn't suggest sticking around in in the Europe parliament or NATO headquarters for very long. Uh Russians fly very fast and strike very deep. Uh and I I'm saying that quite literally in my you know that this this becomes an issue of if this is a full war decapitate the leadership instantly from of the Europeans. And Russia can do that uh without ever going nuclear.

[00:37:28]Russia can decapitate fully. Uh, I don't think they even realiz this. I mean, Ryan Metal, I wouldn't be working there once things really start going because that's another area that's it's just going to be destroyed. But it is, as long as they're if they're now the Americans are neutral, they're buying equipment from the Americans, they at least have a a a back stop that they can get equipment. Anything inside of Europe is in striking range by by Russia. Uh and while things like drone manufacturing, you can bigger small drones uh or small arms manufacturing, you can uh farm out to the various small manufacturing plants and you can hide them in warehouse and place like that.

[00:38:07]You can't do that when you're trying to build heavy equipment. Let's just begin with that. You need obviously large manufacturing facilities. You're putting together tanks, if you're putting together armored vehicles, you can't hide that. Those are ma massive targets that are hard going to be hard to hide.

[00:38:22]But again, the energy infrastructure in Europe, um, when you're reliant on LG, that's a very narrow infrastructure that can easily be destroyed. And then, uh, all the LG tankers can arrive that you want, but they they got no place to unload. You have no storage facilities because I know Russia can take out any storage gas storage facility in Germany.

[00:38:44]Uh, it'll bore down deep enough for all of it to to go one one big bang. when you're when you're looking at that, it's suicide, but you're dealing with people that are not rational yet. Uh Russia will have to act off of its own rational uh views on survival. And when you never mind, it's a nuclear state that you're trying to threaten with extinction. That usually means you get a nuclear response. And Europe just won't survive a nuclear response. Europe is a small cage with a lot of people in it. uh any strike inside of Europe will cover massive amounts of territory uh population wise.

[00:39:23]>> Yeah. You know, >> in in any kind of rational world, the Europeans would want to wind that kind of threat, that kind of of fear immediately down, right? And deescalate and and and get to a point we have agreement with the Russians. But unfortunately, we are not in a rational moment. We are in in some form like, you know, cultural revolution type of moment. If you compare what the Chinese did about 50, 60 years ago, right?

[00:39:46]Sometimes these these large groups they go berserk and they hurt themselves and Europe is at the moment in one of those.

[00:39:53]So the question to me is can Russia somehow wind down the Ukraine war and take away that toy because by now the Europeans are using it as a toy in order to do a proxy war. I mean of course through the Americans as well uh to channel their proxy war against Russia.

[00:40:08]And we've we've heard the the German chancellor recently saying that he will work he will do his best and and find all of the military-aged Ukrainians in Germany and send them back so that you know they can go and die for the uh for the the the this stupid stupid project.

[00:40:25]But that's what they're doing like more people into the into the meat grinder.

[00:40:29]Um it's absolutely inhumane. It's it's it's absolutely horrible. But the the counter strategy from Russia could be to try to wind down the Ukraine war and take the take the war fighting toy away.

[00:40:40]Um are we looking at an spring or summer offensive that could that could potentially achieve that? And if so like would it include Galatia?

[00:40:50]>> Um well Russia's already started that spring offensive in in several directions. Problem is is uh drones are predominant everywhere. uh anti- drone technologies are are advancing but uh they're just not in that stage where they can actually change things uh very meaningfully. Uh there there's a lot of anti- drone technologies. Uh there's anti- drone drones that you can uh that the Russian military has that you can uh just line up with a drone that's flying, shoot it, and the AI in it will just target it. It's a kinetic hit, so the your drone will just knock out the other drone out of the sky. Uh there's uh automated machine gun uh posts uh that track and and destroy drones. There's lasers uh the Chinese manufacturer been using on uh test field testing using on the battlefield. They're very effective uh and lots of other things. But again, drones, attack drones, uh that the FPV drones, they're very cheap and easy to manufacture. Uh that you can set up a drone manufacturer with the right uh chipsets. Uh and there's Chinese companies that are selling uh something like two or three billion dollars worth of uh chips uh to Ukraine. Now, this goes against the uh the official uh line from the government, but it's still happening. That's going to be one of those issues that is going to get brought up uh between and and he uh to shut that down. Uh but the point is is you can still manufacture these drones relatively cheap uh and in mass uh faster and the Russian army can advance through that drone wall. And it's advancing. It's advancing in every direction again because the ground's gotten hardened back uh hardened up. It's dried up.

[00:42:35]advance it back on you. Uh, Zillinsky right now is promising the super count a new super offensive in 27. For that, of course, he needs manpower and yes, you're right. But Germany is just going to be the first start. Look, the uh the troubles in Ireland which may lead still to a revolution. Uh it seems to be boiling in that direction very quickly.

[00:42:58]A very large part of that is because of the Ukrainians. Uh Ireland has taken in per capita more Ukrainians than anybody else short of Russia. Of course in Russia they don't get special treatment.

[00:43:08]They they come into Russia they can get citizens citizenship go find a job uh just like everybody else and just fit into society. In Europe they get privileged status. Uh so Ireland which is suffering economically as it is uh it's taken per capita per 100,000 citizens it's taken in 18 Ukrainians per 100,000. Germany 13 per 100,000. So Ireland with a much smaller populations expect to absorb a large amount of Ukrainian quote refugees a lot of whom are very expensive automobiles. They get housing. Their kids are first in line for schools. They get pocket money.

[00:43:48]Meanwhile, the Irish are getting the street. Uh and anger is obviously uh exploding now. It's gone to the boiling point. Uh there's issues with other uh of course there's issue with other uh quote refugees that have been flooded into Ireland. That's pissing people out.

[00:44:04]But uh from what I've talked to several Irish uh that I'm friends with who one of them's a journalist, another one's an activist. You know that the number one thing is now Ukrainians and and they're chauvinistic inside of Ireland. The I which just pisses the Irish off. You know if you're a guest act like a guest you're not the owner. you're not co-equal. Uh so to lower those and that's but by the way before food prices kind of skyrocket on the next three months when the first bad harvest come in uh much reduced. This is with g with uh petrol prices already skyrocketing.

[00:44:41]You know winters not beyond the mountains. Uh we may be in mid-spring but winter's not beyond the mountains.

[00:44:47]This is the point where you're supposed to start getting reserves of gas for winter. There aren't any. Uh so brings into question how the hell you'd survive period on just what you have let alone you know build up any reserves. Uh and people are getting angry and the best way to lower that tension is to get rid of at least one of the irritants. And one of those irritants happens to be Ukrainian men. And what better way to get rid of them than to physically get rid of them. Uh toss them on the battlefield. Uh they'll die off on the battlefield and they and they buy you time uh to prepare for the big war. uh that that's what we're looking at. And I think that's going to be a big trend throughout the European countries is grabbing the Ukrainians and sending them off uh to the battlefield. And again, quite a few Ukrainians are now rushing toward Russia uh through Bel through Barus because they've they figured that out. They're they're going to get they're the sacrificial lamb and they are going to get herded in in massive quantities shepherded off to go die. Uh what they ran away from. So you know that's the situation uh and yeah I think you know Germany is saying the uh the silent part out loud but I think all the European states are now looking at doing this u for various reasons internal reasons and uh reasons uh for supporting this uh this uh psychotic war effort.

[00:46:12]So I don't you know this isn't going to end in one year at this point unless there's some major breakthrough like uh EMP technologies that can take down the drones as uh they're flying uh without using a nuclear warhead to create a big enough EMP burst. Uh and then there's there's development in those fields too.

[00:46:31]So unless something radical arrives on the battlefield uh sometime soon uh to negate the drones, this will be a continued slow push forward. Um, and as long as uh Europe starts shoving men into the into the ranks and you know and and the Ukrainians, by the way, if you look at it, they're now shoving women into the ranks faster than we ever before. Uh, the number of percentage of women in the arms forces of Ukraine has grown to 13 and a half% on the battlefield itself. It went from 5% to 7 and a half% just over the last year. Uh, and they're just now there's they're still kind of pushing them in without doing press gangs, but that's down the road. Also, this is the last Ukrainian for God's sakes. Uh they they don't I mean the leadership this is money making for leadership. This is profits.

[00:47:18]>> Quite literally profits.

[00:47:20]>> It's it's it's extremely sick and it's it's of course this entire cynicism of the EU to say like, oh no, we're doing it for the Ukrainians and now we're rounding them up and sending them into certain death. Uh but that that's that's what they're doing and that's what they will do with their own populations. I mean these people have no they have no limits and as Alexander Alex Christopher who keeps saying they also have no reverse gear. So and but that means for Russia there's really no other there's no other strategy at the moment than to somehow have a a war economy and a war uh uh war capacities that just are able to keep grinding this down. Right. It's like what what else are you going to do?

[00:48:02]because apparently yeah it's not possible physically to to overwhelm all of that and stop it down. So on both sides we now have the machinery that is already after four years trained in dealing with each other.

[00:48:16]>> Well you know I know the Europeans like to uh in the west loves to talk about Russia is on a war economy. Russians not in a war economy. Russia is spending uh about six 7% of GDP on this uh war economy be closer to 30 to 40% of GDP.

[00:48:33]uh if Russia goes onto a war economy, if we uh emulate anything that was close to the great patriotic war, World War II, where everybody's either into the battlefield uh into the direct support of battlefield or into the factories, Europe is going to get destroyed uh just conventionally. Russia can put on their arms uh 30 million soldiers quite literally. uh I mean women and children uh off to the factories and we start a mass manufacturing. It would take a little while for it to wrap uh re w rev up obviously but it it is possible when when the country there is no declaration of war war once war is declared we're talking about a whole different uh matrix of thought. We're talking a whole different matrix of abilities of the government to perform.

[00:49:21]I mean that's when the government goes oh we liked your pickup. We needed the battlefront. Here's your voucher. go get some money before it when the war is over. Off goes the pickup. You know, that's when you have full mobilization of all the assets in the country. Uh and Russia's resources are compared to Europe quite limitless. uh Europe is in a much much worse place than it was in World War II when it comes to energy security uh and ability to produce partially because unlike uh World War II where the Russian ability to strike deep into uh the European Reich which was I'm sorry the new European order you know the checks were happily producing tanks for the Germans uh so were the French in the north and so on uh the ability to strike deep in was very limited uh the ability to strike deep in instantly now is is absolutely open. It exists. And worse for uh the Europeans in this case is everything's on a sheet of uh of of paper basically. Everything's visible.

[00:50:23]There's no place you can hide a large factory. Everything's known. Any concentrations are going to be known.

[00:50:28]Satellites are constantly watching. Uh absolutely constantly watching. So again, in a sane world, they would be deescalating very quickly, just like the European leadership was deescalating as fast as they could when uh medium-range nuclear missiles became the big thing back in the 70s and 80s. That terrified them. It properly terrified them because it told them, you know, if there's a nuclear war, it's not the US and uh and the Soviet Union. Uh the first is going to be you and you're going to get exterminated. And that terrified them as it should have and they were one of the biggest pushes toward the resolution of the Cold War. But that's when adults ran the shop. Now you have adult bodies and and and you know I I don't want to get crude in saying this, but they're basically people. Uh I mean mentally mentally deficient absolutely mentally deficient individuals. Most importantly, it was the Europe used to be run by people who actually like Europe. Now it's run by people now it's it's run by people literally who used to work for Black Rockck and who understand that retirement in Miami is much much nicer and more interesting than being stuck somewhere in gray old Berlin right and where it's understood that you know having having you know being on the other side of the pond is actually nicer. So like you know they look at Europe in the same sense that they look at Ukraine as something to use and if it doesn't work if it breaks then well well you did your best and you have now your retirement and you're going to be a decorated blah blah something in one of the think tanks and well that's better than being in in in that in that in that crappy place there on the other side of the of >> people are insanely like integrated in the transatlantic network.

[00:52:20]They think in those terms and you see where Analena Berbok now is, right? The former foreign minister of of Germany, right? She leveled up and she's now in New York.

[00:52:29]>> Yeah. I I I'll take it even further.

[00:52:31]They just It's not that they don't like Europe. I think they hate their own citizens.

[00:52:37]>> Yeah. Yeah. The despise they have. I mean, if you look at at Ursula's recent comment about the best energy, uh the the cheapest energy is the one you don't use. It's like can you really say that?

[00:52:49]Did you really just say that we are the problem that we need energy and we need to be cheaper by not using energy? They she said that and they think like this.

[00:52:57]They hate their own people. Why they take care of it in doubles, right?

[00:53:02]>> Yeah. I mean, you listen to these elites, they flat out they hate their own people. You know, you can say whatever you want about Hitler and it was and I'm not defending Hitler, but in his own skewed manner, he loved the German people, including the Austrian as one big German.

[00:53:18]>> You know, you just you just you just quoted Morty from Rick and Morty. He said even Hitler liked Germany or something like that. It was like, no.

[00:53:26]Yeah.

[00:53:28]No, no defense for Hitler at all. But the current the current the current leadership of Europe the biggest problem I think Russia has is that that leadership thinks Europe is is dispensable and that's >> exactly >> you cannot fear these people anymore that's Karaganov I mean even Karaganov like has to kind of come to terms like how to deal with people who do not actually like the places they're running >> right and and the amazing part is is the sheep are still sheep the vast majority of sheep are still asleep they're going even though they're now being herded straight over to the meat processing plant and they're still going look there's still some more green grass to eat along the way they the the majority of Europeans are absolute sheep they're blind they're deaf and they are suffering from a normaly syndrome oh everything was fine yesterday everything's fine today so everything's going to be fine tomorrow and they're not noticing that again they're getting closer and closer to the meat processing plant time to wake up >> yeah but you know they keep saying look the meat process ing plant is coming.

[00:54:30]It's coming. And now that you're very close to it, look, it's here and here in you go. See, I told you you would be in there. It's I mean with in their sick twisted world, it even makes sense. It even >> um >> Yeah. I When do we start screaming soil and green as people?

[00:54:48]>> Sorry.

[00:54:49]>> When do we start screaming soil and green as people?

[00:54:52]>> I don't know the reference. Sorry.

[00:54:54]>> Oh jeez. Okay. You need to re uh watch the movie. So it's a a H movie from the 60s where they have uh the world is mass overpop populated like >> 100 billion people you know mass overpop populated and the government can't figure out how to feed people so people keep coming out and protests uh they keep disappearing they're being rounded up uh and what turns and and then this new product appears soil and green uh to mass feed the people and then Charles H he gets in there he finds out what soil and green is made from and he's running out at the end of the movie screaming soil and green is people because they're just the people that are rounding up they're processing his food for the rest of society so you know they're eating their own uh and that uh you know again so when do in Europe do we start screaming soil and green as people maybe the day is not too far away but um it's going to it's going to be sad good stas thank you very much we covered Iran we covered Russia and the and the sad state we are in. I I wish that at some point we could talk about things going right. I mean going going good. Um people who want to find you, they should uh find you on your YouTube channel and on X and on your Substack.

[00:56:11]>> Yes.

[00:56:12]>> Uh X is uh Stannis Kimnik. We couldn't get the whole name in. So we Russians like long names. That's how we get the education system up. You start have to write your own name. It's so freaking long.

[00:56:27]Um, on X, uh, that that's on X. On YouTube, it's Mr. Slavic Man, Slavic with a K.

[00:56:36]Um, uh, let's see, on Substack, it's Zme Garinich. Um, which is a three-headed uh dragon in Russian mythology. Um, and all the simpler names were taken, too. I will I will try to put the links to all of those into the description box below if I don't forget. Stanislav Kra Kipnik, thank you very much for your time today.

[00:57:01]Thank you.