Tamil Nadu Exit Poll | DMK To Retain Power, Vijay's TVK Will Win 63 Of TN's 234 Seats: Exit Poll

Ajouté : 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]Here are the numbers coming in today's Chanakya projecting a DMK plus of 125.

[00:00:06]118 is the halfway mark, remember? So, uh victory for the DMK being projected by today's Chanakya. TVK 63.

[00:00:17]Still a big number, but significantly less than what Axis My India and Pradeep Gupta have predict projected. AIADMK [music] plus NDA at 45. So, these are the numbers coming out from uh uh from uh from the uh today's Chanakya projection. Total number of seats 234. 125 plus 125 for the DMK plus or minus 11. AIADMK plus is 45 [music] plus minus 11. 63 to the TVK is what the projection here is. I want to bring Veera in first for a quick first reaction. Today's Chanakya, a day after the first lot dropped yesterday, Veera. First thoughts? Well, the directionally very similar to what Pradeep Gupta has said, but intensity-wise much lesser because it's putting the TVK as the number two player. At 125 plus for the DMK, it's again pushing to a situation where the DMK by itself may not have a majority mark on its own, but with its allies, it's above the 117 mark. AIADMK at 45 plus plus or minus 11 could be a worry for the party because it's putting the AIADMK at number three, not just in terms of seats, but also in terms of vote shares. And so, that would be a concern for the AIADMK should that be by far No, and those who've been balking at the Axis My India numbers, you know, they would say that even though this directionally is like Veera said to what Pradeep Gupta has been saying, they would say this looks more reasonable, more realistic. Vasudha? Absolutely. You know, Shiv, a lot of people used to say this about Vijay that he'll get views, he'll not get votes. Then they said he'll get votes, he'll not get seats.

[00:01:48]Now, we're actually talking about the number of seats and today's Chanakya's projecting not just 63 seats, but 30% vote share for TVK, which for a debutant is huge, is quite massive. While My Axis India might not be but you know, might be unprecedented for a lot of people, the fact that this survey would be something that the DMK would be happy with because they would be crossing the comfortable mark. Even though it's plus minus the plus minus 11 is an important part there, but that's >> even if it's at Yeah, you're right. Plus minus 11 would be important, but then more important, Vasudha, the difference between the TVK what the Pradeep Gupta had predicted is 35% for the TVK, 35% vote share for the DMK plus. But here, you see 30% vote share for the TVK plus or minus 3%, but a 39% I want to put that vote share uh Veera, why don't you join me over here? Join me here. Well, let's put the vote share up since you're talking about it and we can talk about Look, look, this is what I'm explaining.

[00:02:40]Where Pradeep Gupta is different from this poll is that Pradeep Gupta is putting up a dead heat between Mr. M.K.

[00:02:45]Stalin and Vijay there at 35 35. Whereas these guys are saying 30% vote share for TVK, a 9% more vote share for the DMK plus alliance. And a 27% for the AIADMK.

[00:02:59]So, pretty much saying that these those two are in the same range. The DMK is cut above the rest in terms of vote share.

[00:03:04]>> that means that TVK has cut into only AIADMK votes and number one is clear in this case. If you if you I mean, if these polls if we take it seriously, but but I think this would be something that the DMK in [music] alignment with because in to be honest, Shiv, I think a lot of DMK leaders who've been speaking have been repeatedly using this one word to me, which is tough battle, tough battle.

[00:03:26]>> [music] >> It's not an easy fight. DMK top leadership They've been saying it's a tough battle, it's a tough battle.

[00:03:32][music] So, they do expect that it's going to be a close contest, it's going to be a fight, and they would expect their numbers And Shiv, a lot of a lot of DMK leaders are also saying that their own allies have not really done well in terms of VCK. VCK's votes have also gone to So, in constituencies where it's a fight between a DMK ally and a TVK person, [music] people have voted either for the TVK or for somebody else.

[00:03:50]>> We we've we've got a slice of cast. I'm going to come to that in just a bit.

[00:03:53]Before we put that on our screen, I want to get a quick round of comments from here as well. Shankar, quick word on what today's Chanakya is showing us.

[00:04:01]The numbers the map doesn't gel for me.

[00:04:04]In the sense you have a 39% which has got 120 plus seats. You got a 30 which is 63.

[00:04:11]And then you got a 27 >> So, the math gels because it's regional disparity. No, so that's No, no, that's what Ramaswamy and I were discussing.

[00:04:20]That if the spread had been even, then the math gels. It doesn't gel when it is geographical.

[00:04:28]See, so coming there, North Tamil Nadu generally DMK DMK allies are much stronger. So, if they're going to poll their higher vote percentage, that's going to be there. And then their votes are going to drop, especially in west and south. Sir, but you're making an assumption here. All I'm trying to say is that at 39%, the DMK could be polling across the board votes, whereas the TVK could be getting its votes from concentrated pockets, which is what we've been talking about. AIADMK has been a concentrated vote.

[00:04:54]>> a folly with the number because then with a 30%, they should be getting 50% seats in North Tamil Nadu. But 50% votes in North Tamil Nadu, which means the DMK's votes will drop and DMK will lose seats. Let's look Okay, okay.

[00:05:08]We'll get into that. We'll get into that a little bit more. Let's let's look at the cast breakup of the today's Chanakya projections >> [music] >> that have been put up. Veera, Vasudha, feel free to pitch in over here. Help me decode this for everyone. We saw you know, Axis My India's slice from yesterday [music] as well. That threw up quite a bit. What What stands out to you in this? I I think Vasudha, 49 34 on [music] the Christian vote between the DMK plus and the TVK would mean a split in that minority vote core. [music] And of course, on this uh you know, look at the Muslim vote as well. 64 25, which means that the TVK did gain that [music] bit. So, And Veera, this SC vote which was quite high and interesting in you know, yesterday's exit polls, DMK retaining about 43% I think the beauty of this numbers, if it holds This was the opposite yesterday in today's Chanakya.

[00:05:58]I think these numbers The numbers would indicate that whether it's SC, whether it is Christian or Muslim, there is an age demographic that's at play.