Seyed M. Marandi: Iran Closes Its Airspace as Negotiations Fail and the U.S. Prepares to Strike

Added: 2026-05-24

[00:00:00]Welcome back. We have the great privilege today to be joined by S Muhammad Marande, a professor at Thran University and a former adviser to Iran's nuclear negotiation team. Uh thank you very much for coming back on.

[00:00:15]>> Hi Glenn, thank you very much for inviting me. It's always a great pleasure being on your show.

[00:00:21]Well, I wanted to speak with you today about the the peace process or the diplomacy going on because we get a lot of conflicting messages that is the US keeps signaling that uh the US and Iran is getting closer to a deal and you know the gaps are being bridged while Iran is essentially pushing back to some extent at least arguing that uh there doesn't seem to be a peace that the two sides are still very far apart. What is that's actually happening on the diplomatic front? Do you I mean what is uh information warfare and what's actually happening?

[00:01:04]You know, I always say and I believe and I continue to believe that usually the Iranian side of the story is uh much more accurate uh in general. Glenn. Uh, the West lies.

[00:01:24]On the other hand, the Iranians don't lie.

[00:01:28]But when they don't want to say something, they won't say it. So they they usually the Iranians, I don't see them lie often. But if they don't want you to if they don't want to talk about it, they'll just ignore it. So uh they won't lie about it, but they won't talk about it. So often when you look at some things in the Iranian media, you have to sort of read between the lines and uh figure out what's missing. Uh where in the West, the truth is usually missing in the mainstream media at least. Um, I think the Iranian version is is quite accurate and from my conversations with people who are involved, uh, the Iranians see a wide gap between the Iranian side and the Americans and, uh, the, uh, Americans also have a much greater sense of urgency. The Iranians don't have that sense of urgency. Not because the Iranians are not under pressure. The the war has damaged the economy.

[00:02:38]The strikes on Iranian infrastructure, the siege obviously it has an effect on inflation, on jobs, on the market. But the Iranians do recognize that the situation for the global economy is much worse and that it's uh on the verge of something very bad. So the Iranians are basically telling the Americans that we have demands. Those demands have to be met. We have not uh carried out aggression. We did not start this war.

[00:03:13]We even had a ceasefire after the war.

[00:03:15]You did not abide by your commitments.

[00:03:17]if you had done so, the global economy wouldn't be where it is today. Uh so uh it is what it is and uh the expectation in Iran is that this will be tough and that it could either lead to uh US strikes, another wave of attacks, or it could lead to the United States um becoming more flexible in the coming days. either uh either root is quite plausible but I think or possible but I think that uh the working assumption in Iran is that there will be war and that Iran is preparing for war.

[00:04:07]That's the working assumption. they're not going to uh be lulled into thinking that we're on uh the course or or the route to uh peace because we've had terrible experiences with the United States in the past. And it's not just with Trump. Uh I was on a TV program with a former Obama official and she was talking about the differences between Trump and Obama.

[00:04:36]Obama lied to Iran. he cheated uh with the JCPOA.

[00:04:42]Uh there are many flaws in that deal and they use it to its the US used it to its advantage. But also before Obama and uh since the beginning of the revolution, uh every time the United States and Iran had some sort of dialogue, had some sort of agreement, it was the Americans that uh betrayed Iran, were dishonest. And so there's great suspicion here and it could be that uh as the negotiations are taking place will be attacked. No one uh is going to put any faith in uh in some message sent through to Iran through the Pakistani mediators or through some other third party. That's that's basically how it is right now. And I'm pretty sure This is a an accurate assessment.

[00:05:38]>> Yeah, I find it interesting that Trump could make comments that, oh, we're planning on striking Iran on Friday, but we decided not to because uh either the Gulf States or his son's wedding. All of these comments, the fact that just makes this casual comments that yeah, we're planning again to strike yet again during negotiations. It's uh yeah it does reduce some of the trust if that's not completely absent by now. Uh but you mentioned that Iran has set its demands and again whenever there's negotiations one usually starts with um yeah a set of demands on each side but one gives some room for maneuver to meet in the middle but on the Iranian position what do you think are the red lines because giving up the straight of her moose that seems to be well keeping the straight of moose that seems to be written in stone. Uh also I can't imagine Iran willing to abandon or reduce its conventional deterrence be ballistic missile drones or its relationship to its allies. And indeed I often make the point I don't think it's in America's interest to do this either because then Iran will be more reliant on a nuclear deterrent. So I say you know allow the not allow except that the Iranians have a powerful conventional deterrence to the extent they feel safe. Uh but uh how about the nuclear program? Because Iran previously agreed to you know the JCPOA. So where do you think Iran's position is hardened? Again I know you talk speak for the government. Where do you think Iran's government is well that they they won't move an inch and where do you think there might be some leeway?

[00:07:17]Well, one thing I'm very careful of doing, Glenn, is that I I don't ask about details because since I am on media, I don't want to know certain things uh even if they tell me. And of course, there are things that obviously I won't be told anyway, even if I ask.

[00:07:34]So, a lot of what I what I what what I'm going to say now is basically my understanding, but it's not based on knowledge. Um the Iranians are not going to the Iranians are in a much stronger position now than before. I think that's a general assessment even when uh you know when Robert Kagan admits this then I don't think uh anyone could call this a a fringe assessment or a uh you know an exaggeration.

[00:08:12]So uh the Iranians are being in a much stronger position. They feel that the need for flexibility on the Iranian side is much less. On the other hand, Iran's demands are much more reasonable than the American demands. So that's another reason why the Iranians will feel uh that flexibility uh it can only be uh can can only go too far. Why? Because Iran did not demand the United States give up is not demanding the United States to give up its sovereignty. It's not demanding that the United States give up uh uh its military presence in the Gulf of Mexico.

[00:08:56]It's it's not doing anything like that.

[00:08:59]uh it's it's not demanding anything like that. So the Iranian demands are reasonable.

[00:09:05]Uh the Iranians are in a stronger position. Uh and also um Iran has a a a very uh very powerful tool and that is the straight of Hormos.

[00:09:20]Uh at the end of the day, the whole defensive and offensive uh um military engagement with the United States during the war more or less evolved around the straight of hormones.

[00:09:43]How to take and control and keep control of the straight of hormones. So US bases in the region were destroyed. Uh escalation when when the the Zionist regime carried out escalation. Of course the Zionists were regularly targeted day and night. But uh when there was escalation the Iranians were respond with escalation uh against the Israeli regime but also against US proxies in the Persian Gulf that were a part of the war. Uh but all of this at the end of the day the big prize was uh control of the straight of foremost and that is something that the Iranians that is a of a major uh that is a that is the most important one of the most important tools in the Iranian toolbox and it's uh and if Iran wants to give anything uh on that front then they can they they're going to be demanding a great deal in turn.

[00:10:44]And also the very fact that Iran didn't start this war gives the Iranians not only the the moral high ground. They didn't shut the straight of hormones.

[00:10:53]They didn't create this global crisis.

[00:10:55]Uh it it creates a strong sense of Iranian victimhood.

[00:11:01]And Iranians being Shia Muslims already have a strong sense a very powerful sense of standing up to oppression, supporting the oppress. So you're a victim of war. You you have that ideology of supporting the pre uh the press. You yourself are being threatened. So you stand up against the aggressor. All of that combined makes the Iranian position at the negotiating table much stronger because the the the government knows that the economy is is facing uh major difficulties. But the Iranian people are resilient too. Uh we could have trouble ahead. Some people may come to the streets saying we need jobs, we have difficulties, but it'll be manageable. Whereas on the other side, it's not going to be manageable. So all these together make it uh make the Iranians adamant that they're going to have have to have a better deal than before. Whether it's on the nuclear issue, whether it's with with regards to the straight of hormones, whether it's with regards to Iranian sovereignty, uh things will be very uh different than before. Iran can be flexible for example and this again is just me um but let's say u the Iranians and the Americans Iran opens up the straight of Hormos right which which Iran never closed I always have to stress this Iran never closed the straight of Hormos it only closed it to those countries who were with the US in its assault on Iran uh but friendly countries their ships were passing through this whole time like these five regimes in the Persian Gulf. For them, it was shut, but for Iraq, for Oman, it was never closed.

[00:12:43]So, let's say in hypothetically speaking, the Americans and Iran ultimately agrees under certain conditions, m different conditions to open the trade of Homos. Iran will still be in control. You may Iran may not openly uh on the peace of agreement with the Americans get a fee, but Iran will get a fee.

[00:13:05]So, it doesn't have to be something written down with the Americans that yes, we will agree uh to to have a fee or not to have a fee, but in reality, those ships that that go through will have to pay a fee for whatever reasons.

[00:13:19]Uh uh global warming uh environmental uh protection or security costs, whatever it is. Uh but the Iranians will get a fee and and also the Iranians will no longer allow the United States to uh turn the Persian Gulf into a military zone. So so it there will be some there there can be some things on paper but other things that won't be on paper.

[00:13:49]>> Well, it's interesting what you said about Kagan because I've it's um the information space in Europe is very restricted. I and I often made the point that well Iran is is winning. You can't defeat Iran for for a variety of reasons. First of all, the weapons, you know, Trump makes the point we destroy the navy, the air force. But at the end of the day, even if all of that was true, uh the weapons Iran require to shut down the straight of moose is, you know, it doesn't require in the sale what Trump is referring to. But but when I said that the Iran was winning from the beginning, I was told this is, you know, repeating Iranian propaganda. But as you said, now we have the king of the neocons, Kagan, coming out essentially writing articles with the title checkmate. You know, the Iranian has won. Uh but also I made the point that the Iranians not only had protected a lot of their weaponry uh below ground, but also that they have a very powerful industrial potential, autonomous as well in which they could ramp up production to replenish their stocks either what what has been fired or what has been destroyed. And now we see, well, this was also a told uh I was just spreading Iranian propaganda, but now we see the US intelligence community coming out and arguing that the Iranians are rebuilding and replenishing much much faster than they had expected. Uh so I guess the lesson here is that um any reality which doesn't people don't like is propaganda.

[00:15:17]But um I I wanted to ask though about the uh the meaning of the sanctions uh sanction relief because I would if I was advising the Americans I would say that this would be uh you know an area where they have something to offer because uh even if the US is defeated Iranian comes out on top and America has to go home then it wouldn't be any reasons for them to give up on the sanctions and of course Iran could benefit if all the sanctions are removed.

[00:15:46]not gradually because I think gradually means it's not going to be removed. Uh but if it if it's all removed then uh you know this would be a situation where the Iranians would be willing to show some leniency on in other areas not uh but yeah again is how important are the sanctions and do the do the Americans hold any other cards in terms of uh um well essentially yeah offering something to Iran instead of just uh threatening and pressuring you know uh peace through strength as NATO likes to call it.

[00:16:23]>> Well, the Americans have stolen uh significant amounts of Iranian assets that's worth I don't know the real numbers, but obviously it's in the many billions of dollars. But since Iran doesn't have control over those assets, it's like they don't exist. So, it's not uh it's not there's not a lot of leverage that in in that sense. The leverage, of course, is mostly the sanctions. Uh the threat of war is not really something that the Iranians are fearful of for the reasons that you had just explained. Uh everything that we were saying earlier has been uh now acknowledged by the New York Times and the Washington Post even though they're no friends of Iran. And I would uh and I would say with uh a great deal of confidence with um I'm very confident about this that Iran's military today is more prepared for war than it was at the beginning of the war.

[00:17:22]In other words, Iran is militarily speaking it is significantly stronger than it was 3 months ago. And so if there is another war, it's going to be worse for the Americans. And Yemen is much more prepared than Iraq. Last time around though it was active the resistance there but this time round it's going to be much more uh it's going to be they're going to be much more active. So the escal there's going to escalate there will be rapid escalation and the capabilities on the Iranian side and its allies are are are greater than before. And of course Iran's allies really didn't participate that much because that was not the plan.

[00:18:04]They wanted to manage escalation, but this time around it will be different.

[00:18:07]So if there is war, it will end very badly for the United States. So the Iranians are confident about going back to a military confrontation.

[00:18:16]It's not that they want it. The Iranians didn't start the war. They don't want war, but Iran knows that it has the upper hand if war restarts. And it would be uh it would turn out even worse for the Americans than the 39 and the Israeli regime than the 39 days of fighting that we had before. But again uh at the negotiating table the what Iran has to offer is passage through the straight of Hormos. And uh the Americans have made a number of major miscalculations. But the biggest I think of all well one of them is in the biggest which goes back to that book I said before uh going to Thran by Flint and Hillary Van Leit which I think everyone should read.

[00:19:06]The biggest miscalculation is their misunderstanding of Iran. And of course you've been to Iran so you know what I'm speaking about. That book I think explains it very well. and also they predicted what would happen if the United States didn't change course. Uh so that is the biggest mistake. The the second biggest mistake I think uh because through misunderstanding Iran that the whole notion of decapitation or uh regime change is just ridiculous. And in the New York Times article about Ahmed Nad, it sounds more like a joke here in Iran than anything else. And it just shows that if it if it was serious that these people have no idea what they're doing. And if it's not serious, it just shows how unserious the New York Times is and it's and and how it thinks that its audience how it thinks that its audience would believe something that is in reality so ridiculous. And that means that their comprehension of Iran and the narrative on Iran is so strange and abnormal and warped and detached from reality that uh they cannot make objective assessments and that's why when they carry out uh operations when they implement um policy they hit a brick wall because they're they're not dealing with reality. they're dealing with this uh their something that they created in in their through their imagination.

[00:20:34]The second is of course the the second biggest mistake that they made was uh with regards to Iran's cap military capabilities and uh its ability to uh to defeat the United States uh and in this rate of foremost and and and to u to hold back and to to take control of um of the the flow of oil and energy and and so on. But uh I think um beyond that, tactically speaking, the Americans their biggest mistake in the war was that they didn't impose the siege on day one.

[00:21:19]And uh the Iranians were expecting that to happen. They were expecting the United States to impose a siege on Iranian ports at the very beginning. And they had contingency plans, but it would have been very difficult. But the Americans did did not do this and they even removed sanctions on Iranian oil which helped the Iranians sell their oil at a higher price. Uh because the Americans thought this this would be a quick win and they didn't want to disturb the markets. So they wanted to keep the price of oil down so that when they defeated Iran, you know, everything would move on and and it was a catastrophic miscalculation. So only after the war uh the the hot war and a week or so um after the ceasefire I think uh did the Americans impose start imposing the siege that strengthen I mean even if the Americans had done that on day one I Iran would still have the upper hand at the negotiating table but since they delayed this the pressure on Iran be begins later and and grows more slowly than the pressure the economic pressure on the United States. So while let's say I'm just this is just pure speculation if Iran can wait it out. I mean I think a month ago the Americans American intelligence said Iran can last 4 months or whatever. I mean let's just let's say that's the case. We we now we know so let's say it's three months now.

[00:22:49]Let's say uh I'm I don't I'm not saying it's a correct assessment but I'm just saying that you know let's let's assume it's correct. Uh then uh if we from what we're seeing uh and and on on your show and other shows the US economy the global economy cannot wait 3 months.

[00:23:08]That's uh that's definitely out of the question. So the United So let's say the United States had started the siege earlier, the three let's say the 3 months would have been two months now and uh we would have still been closer. Do I I don't know if I'm if I'm making my point uh in a meaningful way if it makes sense. So the Iranians have the upper hand at the negotiating table, not just because they have control of them straight or foremost, not just because they they were effective military, not just because they showed that their state institutions and their public popular legitimacy is much higher than anything the Western media would like to admit.

[00:23:47]Again, going back to the book Going to Thran. Uh but also another book that's good to read is is our mutual friend Alistister Crook's Resistance. uh it's uh the the essence of the Islamic Republic or Islamic Revolution or something like that. That's a good read, too. But in any case, uh the and so in addition to that, the Iranians can outlast the Americans in the waiting game. So whether it's we go back to war, the Iranians have the upper hand.

[00:24:17]Whether it's wait and see what happens, the Iranians uh have the upper hand. At the negotiating table, the Americans have a sense of urgency that I know and the Iranians do not have that sense of urgency. The Americans want an immediate answer. The Iranians are saying, "Well, let's think about it. Let's think this through." So, this is a, you know, there's no good solution for Trump. This is not going to end well for Trump and it's not going to end well for the United States thanks to Trump and thanks to the Israeli regime and thanks to the Zionist lobby. But again, my response to your question doesn't provide you with any answer whether we're going to have military conflict tonight or tomorrow night or the day after tomorrow in the morning or whenever or have some sort of agreement. It's to me it's completely unclear.

[00:25:11]Well, I I do see that Iran has been put on high alert. that is uh well there's reports that Iran has shut down its airspace uh at least over the weekend.

[00:25:22]Now uh what uh what prompted this now? Is there any reports of an imminent attack?

[00:25:34]Well, Iran has been high on high alert for at least three weeks now and uh I've been told on multiple occasions during this period that it could be tonight, it could be tomorrow. I've heard that on multiple occasions, but um this is a 3-day weekend. We are also approaching uh the critical point in the global economic crisis.

[00:26:02]Um the bond markets are are wobbly.

[00:26:08]Uh and um and of course Trump I'm I'm guessing this is just me uh saying that he's not going to go to his son's wedding and and and that sort of thing.

[00:26:21]I think uh and and the sense of urgency by the United States or all of that I think makes the Iranians and the fact that this is a three-day weekend. This is a three-day weekend and we know that uh Trump or at least you know it seems that Trump likes to start wars uh and the United States in general likes to start wars on weekends or so that the markets would not be terribly um uh affected and they don't go into shock and they can sort of hopefully from their perspective contain the situation by the time the weekend comes to an end.

[00:26:58]Maybe the these would be calculations.

[00:27:01]though. Uh I think that right now uh we've we're on it's Saturday. So we still have two more days. So it's still like a normal weekend ahead of us. But that's that doesn't mean there's going to be an an assault. It dep I think I think we it's just impossible to say. At least for me it's impossible to say. But you know Glenn, Iranians are confident.

[00:27:24]Uh they're not panicked at all. Uh the war had the 12-day war made Iranians a lot more confident about themselves. But this war about their capabilities and about the resistance and about their ideological uh u I don't know u strength but uh this war went far beyond the 12-day war. And so so you have some Iranians who whose expectations are also very high and that is something that the government uh and the state and the negotiators have to to have to deal with too. There are some people many people their expectations are extremely high. So the the Iranians are are confident about their position.

[00:28:10]I mean the the economic situation is difficult. It will get more difficult.

[00:28:16]Uh but the Iranians are confident.

[00:28:20]>> It's such a well dangerous and difficult situation because for for the United States they can't win the war. They can't get a peace which Trump can bring home and claim is a victory. And uh they can't really maintain the ceasefire either because u well time isn't on America's side on this one as the Gulf States apparently keep warning Trump about. Um but uh to what extent do you think the other regional actors be it Israel or Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the Gulf States, what what influence do they have in terms of uh well constraining or assisting the negotiation process or are they all spectators here?

[00:29:06]Well, Batar sent a delegation to Iran, but I don't think any of them really have much input. Even Pakistan what it does is it it is that it passes messages back and forth which is something that Iran prefers. Iran prefers things to be written uh because Iran wants to think things through. They don't trust Americans. They want to make sure that there are no loop loopholes in anything that goes back and forth. And in the past, Americans have set promise things very often and they never what and they never carry them.

[00:29:40]and and also the Pakistani mediation could also have its own difficulties.

[00:29:44]The Pakistani mediators could interpret something in a particular way and then the Americans which has happened then the Americans would say that that's not what we meant. Uh so um the Iran that so I think basically it's it's the messages that go back and forth that are important. countries in the region they you know then there's there's been a lot of deception from the very beginning last year you recall that um before the war and we're approaching the anniversary of the the previous war the 12- day war uh we heard right before the war that there was a you know big differences between Trump and Netanyahu about waging war against Iran and it turned out to be fake. So now, right, you know, just a few days ago, Trump and Netanyahu apparently allegedly uh had uh another big their diff they had a difference of opinion over Iran.

[00:30:43]Again, do should I believe that? I don't think anyone here really uh takes that seriously. It may be true, it may not be true, but no one is going to uh take it seriously because we've already seen this this narrative right before a previous war uh being used as disinformation.

[00:31:03]uh or for example the the five countries in the Persian Gulf that before the uh war uh they're o their they were claiming that they were against war but gradually it emerged that no none of them really were against the war. In fact they were they were supporting the war because they thought that it would be a quick win by the United States. So they assisted the Americans and they continue to assist Americans in every way or form. Now, now today they are much more concerned because they see how bad Iran can hurt them and and and retaliate because of the crimes that they are uh that they were involved in. Uh so, uh they say they're against the war, but again, we don't know. I don't think anyone really knows. Some people may believe that they are, others don't, that they're serious about a change of heart. The Emirates, of course, is is a different case. The Emirates is uh showing itself to be a full ally of the Israeli regime, which is a foolish move because it only justifies Iran's position to the entire region and the the the public public opinion when during the war when Iran was retaliating against these regimes across the Arab world people were cheering for Iran except for the Wahhabis and the Salafi who are funded by these regimes and and other people on the payroll.

[00:32:32]people on the streets were cheering.

[00:32:34]Why? Because they they know that none of these regimes have have done them any good, that they've done anything good for uh uh Arabs in different countries or let alone the Palestinians.

[00:32:46]Gata pretends to do some things like giving scholarships to some Palestinians or building a couple of hospitals in Gaza before the war or you know Al Jazzer showing uh the crimes of the Israeli regime but in reality fat doesn't do anything uh substantial just like Erdogan in Turkey who continues to give Netanyahu transport cheap oil from Baku to Netanyahu none of them do anyway um whether the you know none of so that so by taking this stance the Emirates is making Iran even strong uh is it's enhancing Iran's soft power capabilities because everyone hates the Israeli regime. So we don't know where these countries stand. I don't know at least uh I I hear some people say that the the Kataris have a change of heart, but it's not because there's really a change of heart. If there is a change in position, it's because they know that their their their gas facilities can be destroyed for good and that will happen if Iran's critical infrastructure is attacked and so on.

[00:33:58]Turkey, it's NATO and Erdogan, he will never do anything against the United States. He didn't do it in Gaza. He didn't do it in Lebanon. He's not going.

[00:34:08]Even though the Israeli regime is more of a threat to Turkey, as as we all know, greater Israel actually doesn't directly affect Iran uh nor um Yemen, two members of the Axis of resistance.

[00:34:24]It mostly affects Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt. uh but uh those countries don't simp don't have the ability to do much about it. Of course it would affect Iran indirectly because if it expands it would it's a sphere of influence would expand with it but in any case no these countries don't have a a leadership that would stand up to the states. So the region is not really that important.

[00:34:56]This is between Iran and the United States and the Israeli regime. But also inside Israel, there's there are lots of problems. And those who follow uh the uh uh the Hebrew media uh they know that uh there's there's crisis inside the regime. And um Alistister Crook and his wife Ashling, they they do a lot especially his wife, she does a lot of work on the Hebrew media. So I think people if they want to know more about that uh they should follow conflicts forum.

[00:35:32]>> Yeah. No his subcons forum is quite excellent. I make sure to read it as well just to also catch up on what's happening in the Hebrew media. But uh no whenever we see anything in any messaging coming out of um out of the White House. Uh I I get a bit worried because they say they're optimistic.

[00:35:49]We're getting close to a peace. This is usually a red flag that they might attack. Uh Trump said that the Gulf States had convinced him not to attack, which sounds like he's going to try to give some protection for them as he plans to attack. And of course, this new talk of a split between Netanyahu and Trump is also something you would want to hear before an attack. So, uh so hopefully, yeah, this weekend will be peaceful. Uh, and um, yeah, uh, good luck and as always, thank you so much for being so generous with your time.

[00:36:26]>> Not at all. It's it's always a great pleasure, Glenn. And, uh, I h I hope it's peaceful for everyone, people of Cuba, the people of Lebanon, the people of Gaza, and across the world. Hopefully hopefully we'll see better days. I'm I'm sure no one believes that we're going to see better days anytime soon, but I think ultimately after the hardship, we things will get Better.