America’s Debt Crisis Has Started

Ajouté : 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]We got a little bit of a problem.

[00:00:05]Maybe Michael Burry could be right this time.

[00:00:08]But the problem that we've got is are the dip buyers going to settle?

[00:00:13]You see every time the stock market pulls back, there's someone coming in saying that's a nice discount and it equally comes straight back up.

[00:00:21]Yesterday we had the inflation data saying that the PPI or the core CPI came in higher.

[00:00:28]Then we had a reading of 3.8%.

[00:00:32]That is wild.

[00:00:33]Inflation is up. The yields are up.

[00:00:37]So the stock market's like so what?

[00:00:41]AI is killing it.

[00:00:43]Today's live stream I'm going to explain why America has a very big problem and they're not addressing it. Too busy with a war, too busy with tariffs.

[00:00:54]Too busy at getting interest rate cuts.

[00:00:56]But the market is starting to paint a different picture.

[00:01:00]You see when you've got the dollar dominance trading positive and then Bitcoin's trading positive nearly 1% at some point the reality does kick in and that's just happened.

[00:01:12]Bitcoin's just taken a nose dive. Nasdaq has just taken a slump.

[00:01:16]Year-on-year the PPI readings came in at 6%. They thought it was going to be 4.8.

[00:01:22]Month-on-month nearly three times the increase on the PPI.

[00:01:27]This is a problem. But the cracks were starting to show in the yields market.

[00:01:31]And that's what I'm going to explain today.

[00:01:33]So if you want to understand what a $150 trillion market cap environment is doing make sure you stick around for this live stream cuz it's going to make sense and help you understand how money is now going to start rotating and really give us the description or should I say the point of view from investors.

[00:01:52]Is AI really going to sustain the idea of lofty valuations, higher interest rates, the fact that bets are coming in for an interest rate hike when the statistics are actually showing that that could be the case?

[00:02:09]Why on earth would the US want to cut their rates right now?

[00:02:13]Let's break it all down, ladies and gentlemen, and help you make sense of the madness that is unfolding today.

[00:02:19]Here we go.

[00:02:20]So, tech dip buyers lift stocks. That's what happened last night. Oil took a little bit of a rally cool, as they like to call it. So, we go over to oil's price and we can see that Brent has been trading a little bit negative from yesterday's rally in the Asian session.

[00:02:36]That equally meant that the stock market took a wonderful move to the upside in the Asian session. Look at that for a wonderful play. Let me just get rid of this. You can see how well they made that recovery to the upside. Wow, that's a perfect V-shape reversal coming into play.

[00:02:53]But, before I get into it, I'm going to marry up a little story right now to help you understand what we can expect and whether or not the story of the yields is actually going to be a problem for the US, or should I say the world. And it all starts off with the infamous OIS chart. Told you I'd talk about it, macro.

[00:03:17]This chart, believe it or not, is a problem.

[00:03:22]Lots of squiggly lines, but what does it tell you? Well, below there's a key, and it says the 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 10-year, 30-year overnight index swaps. So, this is effectively the type of interest rate swap where overnight interest rates are exchanged for fixed interest rates, okay? In essence, it says that typically when the long-term OIS rate is higher than short-term rate, it signals that the market anticipates future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

[00:03:57]Which line do you think that it's showing that, ladies and gentlemen?

[00:04:01]The purple one. That's the 30-year. It's higher than the 10, it's higher than the five, it's higher than the two. It's even higher than the one month, the three month, you name it.

[00:04:11]When the 30-year is trading higher, it means that investors have an expectation that the interest rate should be higher.

[00:04:18]Now, let's just go and have a look at something else.

[00:04:22]Credit spread versus the VIX and the S&P 500. You've seen me talk about this before. And I have said that as long as the spread stays down, we don't have a problem financially speaking.

[00:04:33]It's now starting to curve upwards.

[00:04:35]Bottom right, you can see the blue line.

[00:04:38]Let me just give you some figures. The previous reading was 8.83 credit spread.

[00:04:42]It's gone up to 8.94 credit spread. That is an issue. When this goes up, it implies that there could be a tightening of liquidity.

[00:04:51]But then when you go into the stock market, you then say to yourself, is that the case? Do they actually care?

[00:04:56]Well, let's just have a look at the yields. Two-year currently trading upwards. 10-year, five-year currently trading higher, going back into the wick. Even the bonds market has wicks that they go back into, and that's the yields as well. Okay?

[00:05:08]You've even got the 10-year right there going up 4.4, and then the 30-year coming into above that 5%. 5% ladies and gentlemen, that is phenomenal.

[00:05:18]But the problem is this chart is not just about the numerical view of what the yields are, it's the expectation of what investors think.

[00:05:26]That means that this story over here with the Federal Reserve is going to start looking very interesting. After today's reading, which I'm going to go into in a second, we're going to start seeing a different picture about the interest rates in the future.

[00:05:37]October is now leaning still to the 3.5, 3.75. December coming into play, which was yesterday, showing a reading of 63 or 62 or something like that. Now the bets are going in at a rate hike going in at 31.7 and 5.3. Even some players betting that we could go back up to 4.5%.

[00:05:56]Do you understand that how much pressure that will put on the valuations of companies and earnings in the future?

[00:06:02]That is horrible.

[00:06:04]My expectation is that the Federal Reserve is going to hike interest rates.

[00:06:07]They did it before and they can easily do it again.

[00:06:10]Now, let's just go into the data what came out today.

[00:06:13]Core PPI month-over-month came in at 1.0%. Expectation was 0.1, but it came in way higher.

[00:06:20]PPI month-over-month came in at 1.4%.

[00:06:23]That is disgusting.

[00:06:25]Okay?

[00:06:26]The year-on-year PPI was projected at 6.

[00:06:29]Sorry, at 4.8%. It came in at 6%.

[00:06:34]What does that tell you?

[00:06:36]Tells you that we've got a problem in the bonds market. The spreads are starting to go.

[00:06:43]When the yield start to go up progressively, it means that credit could start to get a little bit tight.

[00:06:49]Everyone is over leveraged right now.

[00:06:51]But now, we have a little bit of a problem to counter this, which is not really a problem, but the logic of the dip buyers could be coming into play.

[00:06:58]Check this out.

[00:07:00]Jensen currently or have just landed in China with Trump with several big tech company leaders all going to China to knock on their door and say, "Please open your market.

[00:07:15]Come on. Let's do business together."

[00:07:18]China's going to be on the back foot and say, "Well, listen, get rid of your tariffs, my friend. All right. Well, or we will just entertain this war continuously and make it more and more difficult for you."

[00:07:28]Not so long ago, a Chinese vessel managed to sail straight through the Hormuz. Why did you think a Chinese vessel was all good at passing the Hormuz? Because China's in bed with Iran.

[00:07:38]And this opportunity right now is just a business transaction, which means that the data that's just been released suggesting that we've got a bit of a problem with inflation means that investors think the future of interest rates is going to be higher. Mortgage rates could easily go back to 7% and that's in the US.

[00:07:56]They came down to 6% and everyone was like, "Okay, cool." Take it up to 6.5, uh not really good. But with the way that the yields are behaving right now, it looks like we might have ourselves a little bit of a problem.

[00:08:08]Now, if investors believe what expectations of the future are higher rates, what does that do for us in the stock market? Well, you've got a problem. The stock market itself is showing so much resilience and this is what I mean about the investor. He sees an opportunity to buy stocks on the cheap. That means a macro release of data comes into play. That's what the data is saying today. What will the impact of it be in the future? Well, the labor market's doing all right. He's got expansion in the manufacturing sector.

[00:08:40]The economy technically is doing okay, but bond investors are not seeing eye to eye with it.

[00:08:47]Because the yields are going up, this is going to give us the idea that investors believe valuations are going to come to a point where they're not going to be able to sustain the idea of the yields being so high. When the yields are up, the stock market struggles and you can see that that has what is that is what has happened.

[00:09:06]But the dip buyers don't care. They're coming back in.

[00:09:11]Do I believe the Nasdaq can continue higher? Of course it can.

[00:09:15]You only need a positive conversation to happen today with China to make investors believe that China has now opened the gates to allow Nvidia to sell chips to Chinese companies because they've been banning China banning companies in China from even purchasing any products with Nvidia.

[00:09:35]Once that actually happens and they okay it, ladies and gentlemen, they're not going to give a damn about inflation. We could be in a recession, the yields could invert, and it's all over the place, but the stock market will keep on going higher.

[00:09:49]And that's the problem that we've got.

[00:09:51]America, or technically the Federal Reserve, is not really addressing the major issue, and the yields market are painting the picture for them. We have a problem.

[00:10:03]Now, when the yields go up, all right?

[00:10:07]It means that interest rates are going to be higher for longer.

[00:10:10]The expectation of the future is we think money is going to be expensive.

[00:10:16]Now, is money going to be expensive? Is that the real problem? Or is the problem with the value of money?

[00:10:22]Well, go back into the dollar and understand where we are with everything.

[00:10:25]The dollar dominance right now is trading at a high of 98.2, okay? You've got a vector candle recovery region right here on the dollar. One could make the assumption that things could start seeing the dollar going up again, unless we get a little bit of an announcement from the US regarding the war in um in Iran.

[00:10:44]Technically, dollar should not be going up on the back of this information that's just been released. Why? Cuz it's bad news.

[00:10:52]It means that people now need more dollars to put to work. They need more dollars to purchase things. But investors aren't looking at the value of the dollar. They're looking at the earnings per share in the future that they can generate, because AI is clearly demonstrating that the money that they are investing is seeing a return.

[00:11:12]Microsoft only announced that since their investments with OpenAI, it contributed to around $30 billion of revenue for them. So, that is evident that investors see that AI is doing something, and that a return is actually being generated, irrespective of how much they're actually spending.

[00:11:28]They're starting to see that money's being made.

[00:11:32]But the broken aspect of it all is this.

[00:11:35]It's difficult to really accept the fact that the US is currently nearly in 40 trillion dollars worth of debt. The yields are screaming that there is a problem with the Federal Reserve.

[00:11:45]They're not really addressing anything.

[00:11:46]They can't cut, not at all, because the expectation of interest rates is higher.

[00:11:51]You can't be cutting. You have to be increasing. If there was going to be any cuts, the yields would be going down, and that would then justify the stock market moving up.

[00:12:01]But what you've got is dip buyers are all holding on to AI. And that's all that this is. I've said it. Look, the options trail.

[00:12:10]There's commitment, and it's still coming in. Look at all these calls.

[00:12:13]They're all favoring higher prices on the QQQ. Yesterday there was a big put for about 2.2 billion at the put wall of 737 on the QQQ.

[00:12:24]Where was that last night?

[00:12:26]Let's go to it now.

[00:12:29]No, sorry, that was a spy. Hold on. Was that the spy? Wait.

[00:12:33]There we go.

[00:12:37]1.1 billion, 705.

[00:12:40]Okay?

[00:12:42]So, price right now of the QQQ is trading at 709.

[00:12:46]That effectively means that those puts are out of the money.

[00:12:50]They're losing.

[00:12:52]Because dip buyers are coming in saying, "Hold on a second. Look where Nvidia is, and we've got this meeting with Donald Trump. Look, look, it's it's at all-time highs."

[00:12:59]And this is proving to you that there is a massive disconnect between the investor who invests in high speculation and the investor who only invests in low-risk speculation.

[00:13:12]But I'm quite frank with you all.

[00:13:14]Nasdaq is a 25 trillion-dollar market cap.

[00:13:18]The bond market is nearly 150 trillion.

[00:13:22]That's where the money is going.

[00:13:24]And with the yields going up, it means that investors are demanding higher rates of return. So, naturally, the Federal Reserve is going to have to adopt that policy and increase the interest rates.

[00:13:37]That is my expectation.

[00:13:39]Now, what about cryptocurrency?

[00:13:42]Shouldn't the idea of the dollar being so terrible and the fact inflation is around, isn't Bitcoin the hedge against inflation?

[00:13:51]Well, the problem that we've got with cryptocurrency is this.

[00:13:55]It behaves like a safe haven, believe it or not.

[00:13:58]With the Nasdaq making these all-time highs, Bitcoin's just been bouncing up and down.

[00:14:02]So, it's like people have been rotating out of the Nasdaq, taking profits, buying Bitcoin on the dip. Bitcoin goes up, Nasdaq goes down, and then all of a sudden, Nasdaq goes up, Bitcoin goes down. This morning, Bitcoin was up against the US dollar, and the dollar was up. The bigger market cap will always reign supreme.

[00:14:18]That's why Bitcoin took a nosedive.

[00:14:21]But, Bitcoin is holding out.

[00:14:23]Where's the liquidity with Bitcoin?

[00:14:25]Well, going into order flow, you can see.

[00:14:27]There's nothing really happening.

[00:14:29]Look, these bids have been collected, but there's no real bids in the market.

[00:14:33]So, realistically, volume isn't really present in the marketplace.

[00:14:38]So, that means if we do start to see volume coming into the marketplace, then we can justify the logic of Bitcoin going up on volume.

[00:14:46]Because right now, it's moving up and down on no volume. So, naturally, it's just prone to volatility, and that's the issue that we have got.

[00:14:54]Now, as we go into the open, ladies and gentlemen, which is in the next 15 minutes, we're going to go quickly over to other assets to help you understand the logic of what I've explained about the Look, the mortgage rates. Look at that. 10-year yield is pointing upwards, 30-year right there, and then you've got the 10-year Treasury yield. It's all going up.

[00:15:12]The future is that interest rates are going to be higher.

[00:15:17]I bet that the US Federal Reserve is going to increase interest rates.

[00:15:21]I bet they do it, because inflation, if you look at the data, 1.4% month-on-month.

[00:15:27]Okay?

[00:15:29]It's gone up nearly three times what they expected month-on-month. That is aggressive inflation.

[00:15:37]That's because of your war, because oil's price is going up.

[00:15:40]Going over into oil's price, you can see bright as day that we've got a bit of a story here.

[00:15:46]It's still holding. The higher they keep oil's price for, the more it's going to have an impact on inflation.

[00:15:53]And more sticky See, the problem is we did we we don't have sticky inflation anymore. We've got increasing inflation.

[00:16:01]That's why the Fed has been stalling, waiting to see if inflation will come down and start a downwards trend.

[00:16:07]Problem is now it's gone and started an uptrend.

[00:16:11]So, inflation, realistically, has done the rise, the retrace, and it's now doing the continuation to the upside.

[00:16:17]That is a problem for the market.

[00:16:21]Going over into Forex and the volatility index help you understand where we are with everything. We are I always like to look at where we are with the euro, because that tells me the logic of buy the dollar discount, um sell the euro dollar premium, what have you.

[00:16:35]And the euro is at a low, okay?

[00:16:38]When you're dealing with Forex, you've always got to factor in the logic of value.

[00:16:43]Up here, euro is expensive. That means I can get more dollars.

[00:16:48]Down here, euro is cheap. So, when the dollar is higher, that means I can now exchange my dollars to get myself some euros on the cheap.

[00:16:57]That's why Forex always moves up and down, but when it starts to trend, it means that things are actually working.

[00:17:03]So, when you start to see this sort of behavior, where the euro starts to climb upwards, that's on the expectation that the ECB are going to be hiking their interest rates. Hold on a second.

[00:17:14]You've heard me say it before.

[00:17:16]Whatever the Eurozone's going to do, the UK's going to do.

[00:17:20]Right?

[00:17:21]Usually means that the US is going to do it also.

[00:17:24]Let's throw in the Bank of Japan as well. They're already being primed for an interest rate hike in June.

[00:17:29]So, why would the US want to cut?

[00:17:31]Doesn't make sense. You're the one that's got inflation going up.

[00:17:35]Why would you cut your interest rates?

[00:17:38]For me, that would be a catastrophic move. It really would.

[00:17:42]If the US were to to cut their interest rates, that's why the bets are coming in with the expectation that they're probably not going to hike. Oh, sorry, not going to cut. They're going to hike, and I believe they will. And Warsh is coming in to tidy it all up. He's going to be the one that Trump said, "Please cut the rates. Please cut the rates."

[00:18:00]Warsh is going to be like, "Yeah, technically, I can't really do that because X, Y, and Z."

[00:18:08]Now, what it means for us it's across the board is this, ladies and gentlemen.

[00:18:11]Cryptocurrency, the Nasdaq, and everything else that goes with it.

[00:18:17]If they care, this will drop.

[00:18:20]But, the thing is they price it in.

[00:18:24]Dip buyers step in, and then they go back to focusing on stories like this.

[00:18:29]Let's not forget, Trump's not only discussing trade, he's also discussing about Taiwan Taiwanese arms sales with Xi Jinping.

[00:18:41]What?

[00:18:46]Is he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he he Says here, Trump has sparked alarm in Taipei Taipei and among Asian allies by saying he would discuss American arms arms sales to Taiwan with Xi Jinping when the US and Chinese leaders meet in Beijing.

[00:19:06]China already wants to get just take over Taiwan because Taiwan runs the semiconductor business, simple as.

[00:19:14]Why you Why you Why? He's a businessman, isn't he?

[00:19:20]That's going to be a very interesting one. I think from Iran, it's going to go over to Taiwan, China.

[00:19:27]That will be a very major event for the AI markets. It would if China were to attack Taiwan.

[00:19:34]And they wouldn't attack Taiwan in the sense of hurting civilians. It's not that type of war.

[00:19:41]It's an AI war.

[00:19:43]Let's start attacking the infrastructure where they're building all these chips, but then China's going to be like, "Hold on, we kind of need those chips for the jets that we want to use." So, yeah, Taiwan's like, "Chill out.

[00:19:53]Don't do nothing."

[00:19:55]We live in very interesting times, ladies and gentlemen. It is actually quite frightening. Just a quick heads-up as well. Um did anybody see that Bitcoin went to 2 cents?

[00:20:09]Interesting.

[00:20:10]Anyways, jokes aside, it was a technical glitch on Revolut.

[00:20:15]And Bitcoin had swiped down. It was quite um uh um a crazy move, but market-wise, Bitcoin didn't do that, okay? But it did kind of alarm investors. The glitch happened for 5 whole minutes. It sank, then came straight back up. The question that I want to know is it says here, "Real market prices stayed near 79,000 during the event. The mismatch only lasted minutes, yet screenshots spread rapidly across social media. Many users questioned what they were seeing, while others assumed a system malfunction rather than a market collapse."

[00:20:49]The The thing is, though, if they were to actually do that, all right, and there was something that triggered the market to slump to only come back up, because that can happen.

[00:21:00]You want the proof of that? Go look at what happened to oil.

[00:21:04]Oil was trading minus negative $10. How do you trade minus $10?

[00:21:11]And then it shot straight back up.

[00:21:14]And that was a real market.

[00:21:17]So cryptocurrency at any moment can have that experience.

[00:21:22]But the chances of very unlikely. Only a major event. Okay? Not a black swan.

[00:21:31]Flipping an E E E M P. That's what would trigger it. No internet, nothing.

[00:21:39]Right?

[00:21:40]You wouldn't be able to access your crypto at all.

[00:21:44]So just be mindful when you do see articles like this, you know? I mean, would it be safe to say that Has the 8K Bitcoin projection hit?

[00:21:58]You know, it's funny. Bitcoin did actually hit 8K and then it reversed. It was just a wild spike. I said would Bitcoin hit 8K? Yeah. And it is is hit 8K. I mean, that right there is recovery of every single vector candle. So we can't say that they don't recover all the vectors.

[00:22:15]They do.

[00:22:17]Jokes aside, ladies and gentlemen, just to put it into perspective for you all, we're going into the open right now.

[00:22:23]And this is something you got to take into consideration with this story of the yields. The yields are always going to tell you the sentiment of the investors to whether or not he is going to favor taking on high risk or not. The problem we've got, we've got this huge euphoria, or should I say tulipmania with AI. And investors feel like they're missing out on opportunities to get involved in companies that have been doing this first round of AI investment.

[00:22:47]The next thing I'm telling you now, and you might not want to even do it, or you might just say, "Tino, shut up." But you've got AI software in the bag, okay?

[00:22:59]Now you need to power it, and that's where data centers come into play. Why is Kevin O'Leary bought 40,000 acres?

[00:23:08]Why do you think he's done that? For data centers.

[00:23:11]Data centers is the new real estate.

[00:23:16]You can say that you're a data center investor. Well, what do you do? Right now, I have 17 houses, okay? And I've got land on that those houses are sat on, and that basically means that I can knock all those houses down, and then advertise it to commercial developers, and say, "I give you guys authority based on the council and what have you, to plant a data center here. Happy days." You're going to start seeing that happening.

[00:23:43]Land is going to be bought.

[00:23:45]Things are going to be knocked down, and they're going to be replaced with data centers.

[00:23:50]That's the next big thing. Just go and do some due diligence and research it. I am creating a video on that. It's taken me a little while because I'm trying to I'm waiting for certain things to actually come into play.

[00:24:04]But, we're going to be talking about small modular nuclear companies, because nuclear power is the only thing that really will give these data centers the power it needs. And that's the next step for AI infrastructure.

[00:24:16]Go and find out what electricians are being paid right now. The most sought of after, should I say, the most required skill right now is electricians.

[00:24:28]Cuz these data centers need to be communicated. They need to be networked.

[00:24:31]They need to be connected with power.

[00:24:36]Go Just go and do the due diligence, ladies and gentlemen. All right? Check out data centers, but be very mindful of the bonds market, because the bonds market is showing you that a crash could happen, but it might not last very long.

[00:24:52]That's what it's saying.

[00:24:54]With that being said, guys, mad love and respect, and I'll be tuning in to you all soon.

[00:24:58]Peace.