Kilauea volcano eruption update | Episode 48 forecast | Ep 47 recap / time lapse 20 May 2026

Ajouté : 2026-05-21

[00:00:01]Kilauea summit eruption episode 47 precursory activity started as lava flows from the south vent in the early morning at 3:00 on the 14th of May, 2026.

[00:00:27]The start of continuous non-stop activity of episode 47 at 14:37 local time on the 14th of May, 2026 with lava fountains gradually growing in size an hour later.

[00:01:09]Maximum sustained lava fountains reached as high as 600 to 700 ft or 180 to 210 m.

[00:01:16]The highest peak of lava effusion rate was about 290 cubic meters of lava per second at about 1700 local time on the 14th of May, 2026 with the average lava output at 220 cubic meters of lava per second throughout the entire eruption.

[00:01:47]The eruption came to an end just after midnight at 0:27 on the 15th of May, 2026 after 9 and 1/2 hours of continuous non-stop activity with a A of 5 million cubic meters of lava erupted during episode 47. Lava covered nearly 1/3 of Kilauea's Halemaumau crater floor.

[00:02:04]All the eruptive activity was contained within the southwest part of Halemaumau crater posing very little threat to nearby communities except for small amounts of tephra within a 3-mi or 5-km radius.

[00:02:16]There was minor tephra accumulation at the Uekahuna and Keanakakoi lookout, which is right near the devastation trail.

[00:02:31]The tiltmeter recorded about 15 1/2 microradians of deflation during the eruption. Inflation started immediately after the eruption.

[00:02:39]Eight microradians of inflation has occurred as of the 19th of May 2026 with no deflation events recorded since the end of episode 47.

[00:02:48]The current alert levels are current alert level advisory and current aviation color code yellow.

[00:02:54]This alert level will increase once it reaches the eruption window or when precursory activity starts.

[00:03:00]The forecast window for episode 48 based on the current rate of inflation with potential deflation events factored in is between the 21st of May and the 1st of June 2026 with the strongest possibility of an eruption between the 22nd and the 25th of May 2026 if inflation remains the same. Any additional deflation events may extend the forecast window. The future pattern of eruptions could be less voluminous but more frequent like every 8 to 12 days if the pattern stays the same.