Mag 7 Earnings, Fed Meeting & Crude Oil Build on "Monster" Market Day

Añadido: 2026-04-29

[00:00:01]Kevin Hanks live at the CBOE is joining me for our pre-bell playbook and I'm so glad you're here. Good morning to see you there at the CBOE. What are they saying? We're wrapping up getting ready for a big day. Um your thoughts.

[00:00:16]>> Good morning, Nicole. Yeah, a monster day in the markets already starting with a bunch of economic data. Most of it really solid in terms of durable goods orders were much better than expected.

[00:00:30]Housing starts up 10.8% to 1.502 million. That's a good solid number.

[00:00:37]Permits was a slight miss though, but that housing starts number is going to catch some attention this morning. Now that the economic data solid showing despite all the noisy headlines that the US economy is still firing on all cylinders. However, today is going to be defined by things later in the day like the you know the uh FOMC decision which will come out at two o'clock Eastern.

[00:01:04]Not expecting a lot of news there but drone pal's final press conference will probably have some news. And so that's what we'll watch for. And then Nicole, after the bell, the earnings that we're going to get from Google Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, all after the bell today that I think at the end of the day will decide what the market does going forward. But a monster day. And I didn't even mention headlines from Iran. They're getting louder. And you can see the effect on crude oil because of that. So the markets mostly shrugging that off as corporate earnings are coming in fairly solid and economic data is solid. But the noisy headlines from US and Iran are really affecting commodities. Crude oil making new ali new new recent highs here Nicole.

[00:01:59]>> Yeah new recent highs indeed. We haven't seen the you know we were down in the 80s you know what about a week ago or so. you know, things were calming down a bit, but uh you know, the president really expressing that he feels that Iran and this economic squeeze is really taking effect and that's why they want to now say, "Hey, we'll free up the straight of Hormuz if you free up the straight of Hormuz." And uh we won't agree to not produce nuclear weapons. Uh that was not the that was not the offer from the president. And so the president seems to be sticking to his guns at this point, no pun intended, but saying, "Look, you know, we're going to stand by what we said and we're going to keep our naval bases there in the meantime." And when we think about um you know, the earnings season thus far, I mean, we're seeing some really good fundamentals.

[00:02:47]Most of the names are beating. We're at what 15% earnings growth. This is the sixth quarter in a row of double digit between 13 and 15%, right? Um what are you what are you hearing? I mean, I saw I think I saw that, but I know it was between or it was a little lower at one point, but um sixth quarter in a row of double digit percentage growth for earnings.

[00:03:09]>> So far, corporate earnings are off to a really good start. Now, as you know, coming up on the horizon are some pretty big names. And what hurt the overall market a quarter ago was when hyperscalers large cap tech when they came out with earnings they got a little shaken by the capex numbers. Remember Tesla sold off a week or so ago when the capex numbers went up to 25 billion.

[00:03:35]Well, you're going to get some monster capex numbers coming out here. I think the market will react to are they being responsible to capex? Are they backing off and trimming capex? Are they plateauing it and not increasing it anymore? I think at the end of the day today, the big news item is going to be these four hyperscalers and their capex spending. So, watch for that as it comes out during the day, guidance going forward. But, you know, these firms are going to put up big numbers. However, remember Amazon has always been a stock that got weak when they when they spent a lot of money and then when they stopped or trimmed it, it exploded to the upside. So, I'm really watching the capex numbers. Are they responsible or are they still, you know, pedal to the metal on capex?

[00:04:25]>> Oh, yeah. Without a doubt. I mean, it's also worth noting that uh getting back to oil just for a quick moment. I mentioned that uh oil here at home, West Texas, which we look at most closely, is at 103, but Brent is now back above $115.

[00:04:39]And you know, that obviously affects what goes on in Europe and Asia a lot more than us here at home. But a big number there and also a lot of scrutiny.

[00:04:47]Why did the UAE decide to say, "Listen, we're not interested in being a part of OPEC anymore." They quit OPEC. My last thought here is that Kevin Wash, he has one more vote, I think, at 10:00 a.m.

[00:04:58]today and then he can sit in on the meeting um later today. It'll be interesting to see what the finale is for Jay Powell and Kevin Walsh now, you know, coming into play here.

[00:05:12]>> Kevin Worsh should make it out of the Senate Banking Committee today. Senator Tom Tillis is now no longer in the way of that. So, I would expect that to happen today. Then it goes to the full Senate which where remember he was unanimously voted when he became a Fed member year years ago. This will be much more partisan as you know but he should pass whenever that vote happens. I don't see it on the schedule but I'm sure he has to come out of this committee then they schedule that. That said Jerome Pal's press conference a lot of things can happen. Is he going to stay on for two more years? Is he going to remember there's an IG investigation? All the criminal probes are gone, right? But there's still an IG investigation. I don't know what the liability will be for him. Remember Jerome Pal, all this criminal accusation drone drone pal are absurd, right? He is not a construction manager and that's been going on for years. So any overruns like that, that should be a different issue than is it criminal. So, but there will be an IG uh investigation to see if there was overruns and if they were incompetent doing that. But, however, does Jerome Pal stay on until that's cleared up?

[00:06:29]That's the really only question cuz officially he does have two more years, but historically once you leave the Fed chair, you step down, that will break over the next day or couple days, I think.

[00:06:41]>> All right. Well, we'll have to continue to follow that. I mean, if he says, "I'm staying on," that would be big news indeed. Okay, Kevin Hanks, great to see you. Thank you so much.