US-Iran standoff: Humiliated Tehran is calling Trump's bluff

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]I think um this negotiation for what it's worth has been going on for a very long time and uh JD Vance's comments about things getting close. Uh we've heard it we've heard the same sort of thing from President Trump and from others many times before. It's very hard to know exactly what this means. And I think it's um probably pretty hard for the Americans to figure it out as well because they're they're dealing with um the an Iranian regime which is extremely adept at um misleading the people they consider their foes and uh negotiating in very bad faith. So, I think we'll have to see what happens. E, but even frankly, even if there is um a negotiation, a negotiated agreement of some sort, however long it might last, um I don't think that's the end of uh of this conflict. I think the Iranians are um doing their best to to string things out and to play for time. Meanwhile, they, you know, they hope to get concessions from the Americans on the basis of giving what they would hope come across as good faith um agreements themselves.

[00:01:15]But the uh the I would guess if there are any concessions then in in other words if President Trump decides to uh uplift the maritime blockade on Iran in exchange for freedom of passage through the straits of Hmouth then that's probably just a a kind of holding position which Iran will try and keep on to because of course the blockade is causing them immense pain and meanwhile they will be trying to rebuild. build some of the uh things they lost during the uh the the campaign, the recent campaign. And that not only includes infrastructure and um some of their leadership, but also it includes ballistic missiles, which they're we know they're working now on trying to uh to to replace as best they possibly can.

[00:02:05]It's very hard to um figure this out as far as the current strength of the United States is concerned. Um, I think they, you know, the US did a huge amount of damage to the Iranians. And no matter how big they might talk, the reality is they've been very severely humiliated, which is of course something very significant in the Middle East for them.

[00:02:27]And that they've lost a huge amount of their capabilities. So they they are dra dramatically weakened. The Americans have really lost nothing. They've they've uh obviously there's been damage to the global economy which might get worse as a result of the uh Iranian actions in the Strait of Hummus.

[00:02:47]America's under pressure I think to um to try and get those uh restrictions by Iran lifted one way or the other. Um but I I I I think really I mean it's it's very hard it's really hard to tell from what we're hearing from the negotiations actually what Trump is really thinking.

[00:03:05]I suspect that President Trump um is also to an extent playing for time in this negotiation and part of that is there's two issues concerned here. I think one is the Hajj in Saudi Arabia which is the huge um Islamic pilgrimage that takes place every year in Saudi and that's just coming to an end and the Saudis were very keen I think that the hostilities weren't resumed during the Hajj because that presents obviously religious issues but also huge difficulty huge targets for the Iranians to attack. So that's one issue and that's coming to an end now. The other issue I think is the World Cup which begins um obviously in the second week I think it is of June and I would guess given particularly that the World Cup's taking place in the United States that President Trump won't want if he can avoid it to resume hostilities while the World Cup's going on. So I think those two factors are definitely relevant and we might well see a resumption of hostilities once the World Cup's concluded.

[00:04:13]I think the Gulf states um do want Trump to finish off Iran as best he can and we've heard really strong pressure coming from Saudi not to resume hostilities but that I believe is due to the the Haj the pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia. Um, more than anything else, I think the Saudis actually do want Trump to deal with Iran because um, they present a enormous ongoing threat to him and the same with the UAE. The UE, I think, have been pretty strong in uh, encouraging him to continue attacking. Um, whether that comes out on the surface or not, I don't know, but that's what's going on beneath the surface. And that applies pretty much to most of the the Gulf states who particularly um after they've all they've long perceived Iran to be a big threat to them. They know now that Iran is a major threat. Iran actually fired more ballistic missiles and drones at Arab countries than they did at Israel. Um and and and they know they know this threat's not going away. They understand the Iranians probably better than we do. And I think they um really will will expect and want to see what you know a satisfactory conclusion whether that is in the form of further military operations or whether it's in the form of a verifiable agreement. Um, we'll have to see, but I I I think, you know, the Saudis and the UAE and other countries will be as skeptical as I am, probably more skeptical than I am about the the, you know, the how how to the extent to which anyone can rely on any agreement made by the Iranians. They they're they're adept at um failing to meet any obligations they have under international treaties or bilateral agreements or or anything. They they they will say one thing and they'll do another. And I think we shouldn't forget that this this is not a western country who generally speaking you could rely upon to you know their word is their bond. I don't think that in any way applies in Iran. I think Iran will do its best to try and flex its muscles and to try and back up its words that it's got basically beaten America into a corner, which is pretty much what it's been saying, which is of course not true. they'll try and back that up with um as much military action as they feel they can get away with. It's all, you know, one one one thing to remember, it's not just about the negotiations.

[00:06:43]It's also about the Iranian regime's pride. Um that, you know, they have been humiliated. Humiliation is as bad as death in some respects in the Middle East. And so, you know, they will want to continue not just to talk big, but to to lash out as far as they think they can get away with it. I think the Americans will have learned a lot from the war as it's unfolded so far, particularly in relation to the Iranian response and of course Iranian defenses.

[00:07:12]um Americans and the Israelis together are in an excellent position to um create significant difficulties for Iran, even more than were created during the the past conflict. And one of their key weaknesses of Iran is their their um economy of course, which is in dire straits and linked to that very closely, their energy. And I think US attacks and Israeli attacks perhaps on um Iranian energy infrastructure as well as um the the some of their oil facilities which are critical to their economy as well. I think if that they didn't do that to any great extent last time round, um I think they will probably have realized that the regime, the Iranian regime is a bit more resilient than they perhaps thought and they may decide I think in the next stage if it goes to further hostilities to put more emphasis on targeting oil facilities and targeting the Iranian energy infrastructure and other economic targets.

[00:08:20]anything short of regime change in Iran.

[00:08:24]And I don't mean directly the Americans necessarily putting in place a new regime, but but creating the conditions where regime change is more likely to happen. In other words, further damage to the Iranian internal security infrastructure um and their capabilities to oppress their people. That could lead it. It's by no means certain. um it could lead potentially to regime change from internally in Iran. It that would be potentially a um you know long-term issue and could result in widespread violence inside Iran as well which could go on for a very long time. Um, but anything short of that is really whatever agreements the Iran the Iranians make, anything short of that is um really kicking the can down the road because this Iranian regime is not going to give up on its in reality it's not going to give up on its major missions which is um to to develop um and when necessary use a nuclear capability, nuclear weapons capability to rebuild the proxies in the region.

[00:09:34]um and to make war on Israel and also of course to dominate the the Sunni regimes in Iran which pretty much all the other in in the Middle East which is pretty much all the other countries. And when it comes to proxies, I think the critical one here at the moment is Lebanese Hisbellah. Um and and the Iranians want a ceasefire and a permanent sessation of hostilities between his balar and Israel. They want that to be part of the deal. Uh and if if they if that happens then again that's just storing up further problems for Israel because Israel currently is is fighting despite the ceasefire that's supposedly in place now. Israel is responding to his balar aggression against its own military and against its civilian population and is expanding those operations. Now, Israel, I think, is probably fighting for time in some ways because there is probably in Jerusalem, there is a fear that the that a withdrawal by Israel from Lebanon might form part of the agreement. Um, I'm not sure whether it will or not, but that that would be a concern. And I think the Israelis probably want to do as much damage to Hezbollah before that does happen, if it happens, because of course if if the Iran is if the Israelis agree to withdraw from Lebanon and agree to a a more firm ceasefire than is going on now, then what that does is allow Lebanon to build up its capabar rather to build up its capabilities yet again in a position in a to a stage where it can seriously threaten Israel.