Watching the Tropics: Gulf and East Pac

本站添加: 2026-06-03

[00:00:02]Hey, good morning to you. Mark Sudduth Hurricane Track here. It's Tuesday now, the 2nd day of June 2026. Appreciate you tuning in to the video today.

[00:00:10]Got a couple of areas to watch in the Eastern Pacific and maybe just maybe some activity in the Gulf that could bring copious amounts of moisture into parts of the Gulf Coast region. We'll take a look at all of that and more on what will be a fairly short update today. Not a lot to talk about out there. So, there's no reason to drag it on. So, let's get started. We'll move me I think I'm out of the way just enough so we can look at all of our elements here.

[00:00:37]All right. So, first up, satellite animation. We can see a good deal of the Western Hemisphere over here, the Eastern parts of the Pacific, East Pac, the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the Western Atlantic. And I'll highlight a few things to watch. Yes, we do have some cloudiness, showers, and some thunderstorms in the Gulf, but nothing concentrated just yet. However, could be a lot of moisture coming north.

[00:01:00]I'll examine a post from my good friend Dylan Dylan Federico in just a moment.

[00:01:07]Meanwhile, out here in the East Pac, you can clearly see some turning down there with a tropical system, an area of interest. We call it Invest Area 90E.

[00:01:17]The E for Eastern Pacific. The numbering system goes 90 through 99 with these Invest Areas, and then you start over.

[00:01:24]And the E again is for Eastern Pacific.

[00:01:27]And then there might be some eventual development somewhere down in this region in the coming days. Otherwise, it's very stable out here over the tropical Atlantic. Dry, warm, stable air, even some dusty air with the Saharan Air Layer moving in across that region. We did have a front that uh emerged off the coast of the United States here. You can see the front draped across this region.

[00:01:50]Once in a while, the tail end of those fronts kind of congeals and then a low pressure area that develops and they scoot off to the northeast. No indication of that happening anytime soon, but I just thought I'd point this out, especially to our friends in Bermuda.

[00:02:06]A little cloudy, maybe a little showery out your way, but nothing developing with any kind of a warm core, concentrated bundle of energy, which is certainly good news. All right, National Hurricane Center, the source of all of our great info out there. Again, nothing in the Atlantic basin. So, let's look over here to the East Pack.

[00:02:26]And again, there's Invest Area 90E, 90% chance of developing over the next few days, but it'll probably be fairly short-lived sitting out here in the Pacific. Not going to be any threat whatsoever to Hawaii, so uh hopefully there's no hype about that anywhere at all, because there shouldn't be. No threat to Hawaii, so don't worry about it. This next feature we'll watch as it goes on to develop, 40% chance over the coming days.

[00:02:53]This eastern feature is going to be more complex, because there could be a couple of competing areas of energy trying to come together. We just have to see how things evolve, but for now, let's use yellow, cuz that pops a little better. Uh we don't see any direct impacts for our friends along the coast of Mexico outside of the occasional band of showers and thunderstorms that may come on shore. And certainly rain is an impact, but we don't see anything concentrated coming your way just yet.

[00:03:24]All right, so looking at the rest of the Atlantic, we can increase the size of this wonderful satellite animation.

[00:03:29]Again, very dry, stable atmosphere all through here. Very typical of June as well, so this is really no surprise, but you have any plans to go down from Puerto Rico all the way down to Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, and everything in between, you are looking fine. Very nice weather down there.

[00:03:47]Albeit a little sultry, for sure. Very hot, very humid, but the air above you at about 700 millibars or so, we all know where that is, right?

[00:03:57]Uh that's nice, dry, and warm as well.

[00:03:59]So, the atmosphere is essentially capped. All right, looking at the vorticity signature, a wonderful, easy way to see where the energy may or may not be bundling. There is a little bit of this energy in the Gulf. There it is right there. Not much to see out here in the far eastern Pacific, and I forgot to load the one where we can see Invest 90E, but that's okay. We'll look at it from a different perspective in a moment. This, my friends, is when your energy is spread out over a very long area, and that is not how you get tropical cyclones to develop. So, until and unless we ever see it coming together, we don't have to worry about anything getting started. And as I mentioned yesterday with tropical cyclones, I like to look from the bottom up. The bottom part of the atmosphere, about 850 millibars or so, 5,000 ft. And if you get the frame, the skeleton of the system, that's what this is, then you build from there, where severe weather is from the top down. You have to have upper-level support for severe weather. Showing you some stuff off of social media. This is uh Danilo. Hopefully I said that right.

[00:05:09]Danilo Evangelista. Great information.

[00:05:12]If I show you something off of the Twitter here, that means that I find them to be very reliable and very non-hyperbolic, just facts and good science for you. 90E very close to becoming the first tropical cyclone of the year in the East Pac, he says. And here are some great images of it. This is the one I wanted to show you though since I forgot to pull up the vorticity signature of that region. Microwave imagery shows us that structure. Again, that low-level structure. You can clearly see it's getting that banding shape to it overall. Low pressure starting to develop to develop in the middle here pulling in all that energy from the fairly warm eastern Pacific and it won't be long until we get our first depression and eventually probably a short-lived modest strength tropical storm but I want to emphasize it will remain out over the open Pacific computer models agree this is your spaghetti plots as we call them and everything keeps this out away from Mexico which would be way way over here off the chart literally but everything else you could kind of draw a cone around it that's kind of how that's done not really but you know you get the idea the envelope the guidance envelope generally off to the northwest and not anywhere near Hawaii intensity-wise let's go back and grab that uh the models not too bullish on intensity in terms of this becoming very strong might have a chance of becoming a hurricane especially if it can consolidate quickly and develop a core but most of the model guidance here a vast majority uh keeping this as a tropical storm so there's that uh what else do we have so yeah I want to show you the GFS one of the global computer models for this region and we'll use blue here to make everything stand out watch this area right here and then watch this area over here as I slide this through time you can see 90E gets going over the next few days probably becoming a solid small tropical storm not taking up a lot of real estate there so we back it up go forward again and it heads on out this is day three day four day five and then by this time around this is five days out we do have these areas down here some competing centers of vorticity GFS trying to figure things out other models as well but the main takeaway is none of these areas are of any threat to land directly. Again, when you do get stuff developing somewhat close to Central America and Mexico, yes, sometimes you get impacts from rain getting close too close to shore, but nothing to worry about right now. All right. As I said, maybe maybe a little bit of energy trying to get together here in the Gulf.

[00:08:01]There is some disturbed weather, but it's very very anemic, right? Uh the pressures are fairly high, 1016 1017 millibars. We don't really have much of an impulse in there. There's no tropical wave that I'm aware of adding energy to this region, but if we look at the model over the next few days, there's a little bit of vorticity concentrating in the Gulf, so there will probably be It wouldn't surprise me, and I'll show you this post here from Dylan in a moment, that we do see at least a low area probability kind of pop up what we say the the Hurricane Center will outlook it. We give it a verb there.

[00:08:39]It's going to be outlooked. All right, that wouldn't surprise me, but the main thing from this I want to switch the um kind of what we're looking at. This is the 5,000 ft level. Let's look at the precip moisture.

[00:08:52]And um I don't know one of the good ones. Let's look at the humidity here. So, this is a very wet system overall. If we move through time, lots and lots of moisture down there potentially coming in. And in fact, it shows up much better from Dylan's tweets. Let me just show you that. So, Dylan down there in Miami in the TV business, and yeah, there could be a large plume of moisture coming in.

[00:09:16]And I bring this up because it's been pretty wet over parts of Mississippi, Louisiana, and vicinity as of late. And remember, it is all about the impact.

[00:09:27]It's not hyperbolic, you know, whatever hurricanes. That's not what we're completely interested in, and I hope we can shift the focus away from if it's not a hurricane, I do not care.

[00:09:40]That is not the way to think. That's my opinion. Take it or leave it. Rain is an impact and this much moisture coming in, um we do have to watch this because we're starting to get the ground soggier and soggier in parts of the deep south.

[00:09:53]So, just keep an eye on this. The strong onshore fetch could be some coastal flooding. Bottom line, we'll keep an eye on this and I'll probably talk about this more in tomorrow's update, but I want to put it out there for you to just keep in the back of your mind or the front or the center, wherever, just so that you are aware. All right?

[00:10:12]Also, make sure you are aware. Of course, you're watching more than likely on YouTube, but some people watch our videos on our Patreon. Free to join, absolutely. Want to try to grow the overall Patreon into this wonderful weather-related community and we're doing so. We also have the supported side where you can support us financially at whatever tier is appropriate for your budget. With everything going on, I know budgets are tight, but we can we appreciate [clears throat] all the support we get financially, but the main thing is the community and I invite you to join us on Patreon. Very easy to do so. patreon.com /hurricanetrack. You just search for that right there. Real easy. Go into Patreon, get their app, and sorry, and you you find Hurricane Track and you are good to go.

[00:11:00]All right, let me get where I can exit gracefully. Uh I'm in Nebraska, by the way, finishing up the next couple of days of the field work with Mississippi State University. Um came very close to seeing a tornado yesterday near Akron, Colorado. Lots of other chasers out there.

[00:11:17]Everybody was just wonderful. All the people we encounter, they are terrific.

[00:11:20]I know there's been some bad press for chasers in the news lately, especially out of Kansas during that one event, but man oh man, everybody we've interacted with has just been super. The locals have accepted us in. it's all been wonderful, and we're just about done.

[00:11:35]All right, and I'll be back home for about a week, and then I'm coming back out again, but we'll talk about that later. You guys have a great rest of your Tuesday. As always, I thank you for giving me a part of your day. I am Mark Sudduth from the rest of us at the Hurricane Track Community.

[00:11:49]I'll see you tomorrow.