Alasdair Macleod :"100% CERTAINTY! Your Silver Holding Is About to Become Almost Priceless" | 2026

追加: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]So, you can see that there's a number of things conspiring, coming together, which are leading to a very, very acute shortage of silver. And we've already seen a lot of silver leaving COMEX.

[00:00:11][music] Um uh it's been drifting out of London for some considerable time. And I think that uh we're going to get another squeeze, which is going to make those 40% lease rates look like, if you like, the foothills of a mountain. Silver, it is is is unique in so far as um unlike gold, it's also got an industrial I mean, like a major industrial use. The gold has a minor industrial use. Uh and that is um you know, obvious. Uh and that use is, if you like, not really um dependent on economic activity. Um it's mandated by governments that uh you know, we've got to move away from fossil fuels and all the rest of it. So, you've got EV um you know, uh uh sorry, photovoltaic um uh production. You've also got electronic uh electric vehicles and so on and so forth. And then obviously, we're seeing defense [music] expenditure. industrialized. Now, now, none of these are sort of things that um if you like, die with the economy. I mean, they're the last things to die with the economy. So, demand for silver for industrial purposes is really what's led to this uh supply deficiency over the last [music] 6 years or so. And now, now that China has changed her attitude towards trying to suppress the price in [music] the West, what's happening is that you're getting a growing amount of interest in [music] silver as a monetary metal. And that, I think, is only just start- this is leading to, if you like, a a crunch, whereby um the shortage of um uh of uh of uh supply over the last 6 years [music] suddenly is going to get become very, very acute.

[00:01:42]It the gap will not be filled by China.

[00:01:44]We've seen uh silver imports, China's silver imports in the first [music] uh three or four months of this year has been, you know, uh record levels. Um I mean, there's something about their exports. Um they have been exporting some, but I don't know that it's been [music] um anything like um what they've been doing in the past. Uh, and I think what China's doing, she's been review reviewing her um export [music] um policies uh quite uh significantly in the wake of uh the Iran uh war, the the Gulf War. Um, we've [music] seen this with things like uh fertilizers and so on and so forth. Um, and other people I've talked to who know better than me about Chinese policy trade policy.

[00:02:25]They're saying that they're tightening up on all their commodity exports. We've seen this for example with um uh um rare earths. We saw this back in late September last year. Um, and uh I didn't think it was telegraphed at all, but we could see that um something similar was happening with silver because literally within about 2 weeks uh there was a liquidity crisis in the LBMA, which drove [music] silver's uh lease rates up to roughly 40%. Uh, so um and China is now in the situation because America turned around and suddenly decided last in I think it was about last [music] half of last year that silver was a critical mineral and they needed to uh accumulate it. Now, was China going to supply this to America? No way. So, you can see that there's a number of things conspiring, coming together, which are leading to a very very acute shortage of silver. And we've already seen a lot of silver leaving COMEX. Um, uh it's been drifting out of London for some considerable time. Uh, and I think that we're going to get another squeeze, which is going to make [music] those 40% lease rates look like, if you like, the foothills of a mountain. I mean, this is uh described [music] by the great Austrian economy, Ludwig von Mises. Um, >> [music] >> and uh basically um from his experience of what happened in Austria in uh 1922, [music] Germany 1923, uh was um the last people to understand what was going on with the users of the currency. [music] Until the very last moment, they think its price is going up rather than the currency going down. But, when they finally realize that it's the currency going down, then the currency will not recover. It's the end of the currency.

[00:04:10]So, that, if you like, is very much the last thing that that will happen. And >> [music] >> um it's characterized by people just getting rid of currency for anything. Uh what he just described or what's described [music] in German in German um translated into English as as the crack-up boom. Um in other words, finally, [music] um a sudden demand for everything. But, that demand is a desire to just dump currencies, [music] get out of it before it's completely worthless.

[00:04:38]So, that is the last thing that we [music] will see. Meanwhile, I mean, I just feel that it's my task um and you know, it's really through through your good offices to try and make as many people aware that this is what's going on before they get to that final point and then say, "Ah, I now understand what is going on." You know, by then, the dollar will be I mean, you know, you'll need a million dollars to buy a cup of tea. I mean, it's going to be a bit like that. So, um understand it early, really follow the process, understand the implications, understand how to protect yourself, and you won't be one of those people, the general public, who suddenly wake up at the end of a process where their medium of exchange has been completely destroyed. Uh to my mind, the real thing that you should be watching, if you like, on a macro level is bond yields. [music] They are on the verge of breaking up on breaking out on the upside, which basically means that's um bond prices will fall very substantially. Some people are beginning to warn about this, incidentally. And uh the consequences for that will basically mean that debt traps on major governments are going to be slammed shut. Um and you'll find that America, Germany, the UK, France, [music] and Japan will only be able to fund the expansion of credit [music] by short-term borrowings, which will be, you know, sort of T-bills and their equivalents.

[00:06:08]The idea of being able to market long bonds anything like these levels, uh you can forget. And worse than that, the problem with the debt trap is that the higher the bond yields go, the worse the arithmetic is for the borrower. Then you effectively they become unfundable. So that in a nutshell is where we are, which um really is of great, great concern. The first thing to understand is that silver is no longer just the forgotten cousin of gold. For years gold has taken most of the attention whenever people talk about money, inflation, or the collapse of confidence in paper currencies.

[00:06:40][music] Silver was often treated as secondary as if it were simply a cheaper version of gold, but that view is now becoming dangerously outdated. Silver today sits at the center of several major forces at once. Industrial demand, monetary demand, geopolitical tension, >> [music] >> and a physical supply shortage that has been building quietly in the background.

[00:07:00]When all these forces begin to meet, the result can be far more explosive than most people expect. The warning here is simple. Silver is not behaving like an ordinary commodity anymore. It is beginning to behave like a pressure point in the global financial system.

[00:07:13]Unlike gold, silver has a dual character. Gold is mainly monetary. It is held by central banks, investors, [music] and individuals because it represents wealth outside the banking system.

[00:07:24]Silver, however, is both monetary and industrial. It has a long history as money, but it is also essential to the modern economy. It is used in solar panels, electronics, electric vehicles, medical equipment, [music] defense systems, batteries, and many other technologies. That makes silver unusual. It is wanted by investors who distrust paper money, and it is also needed by industries that cannot easily function without it. This is where the problem begins. If the world wants more solar energy, more electrification, more artificial intelligence infrastructure, more defense equipment, and more advanced electronics, then it needs more silver. Governments can talk endlessly about green energy, energy transition, digital economies, and national security, but all these ambitions require real physical materials. You cannot build a solar panel out of political promises. You cannot manufacture an electric vehicle with central bank speeches. If speeches produced electricity, the world would already be running on unlimited free power. This is why silver demand is so important. Industrial demand has remained strong even when the broader economy has shown signs of weakness.

[00:08:29]Normally, when economies slow down, industrial demand for many commodities weakens. But, silver is different because many of its major uses are tied to government-backed priorities. Solar expansion, electrification, military spending, and strategic technology are not ordinary consumer trends. They are policy-driven. They do not disappear quickly just because the economy slows.

[00:08:51]In many cases, they are the last things governments want to cut. At the same time, silver supply is not flexible. It is not easy to suddenly increase silver production just because the price rises.

[00:09:02]Much of the world's silver is mined as a byproduct of other metals such as copper, lead, zinc, [music] and gold.

[00:09:09]This means silver production often depends on the economics of other mining industries. If silver rises sharply, miners cannot simply double production overnight. There is no magic button marked more silver. Mines take years to develop, permits take time, refining capacity is limited, and supply chains are complicated. So, when demand rises faster than supply, the market can become extremely tight. This is exactly what appears to be happening. Silver has been leaving major Western vaulting systems, including COMEX, and it has also been moving out of London for some time. That matters because London and COMEX are central to the global precious metals trading system. They are where much of the paper trading takes place, where contracts are priced, and where confidence in available supply is supposed to be maintained. But when physical metal begins to drain away, confidence becomes more fragile. Paper contracts can be created easily.

[00:10:00]Physical silver cannot. This is where lease rates become important. Lease rates sound technical, but they tell us something very simple, how difficult it is to borrow physical silver. When lease rates spike, it means the market is under stress. It means people urgently need metal and are willing to pay a high price to borrow it. The earlier move toward extremely high silver lease rates was not just a minor market curiosity.

[00:10:21]It was a signal that physical silver was becoming difficult to source. And if that stress was only the beginning, then the next squeeze could be far more dramatic. I think the latest news is that the foreign minister for Iran did a trip to St. Petersburg, where he spoke to Lavrov and also Putin, and brought them up to date. Now, following that, Putin apparently gave a call [music] to the White House and warned them that if they attacked Iran, the consequences would be extremely dire for the entire region, and it would >> [music] >> probably be a war that would spread further.

[00:11:01]No, I I wouldn't be surprised if that is why the the White House, >> [music] >> particularly Rubio, seemed to back off, if you like, from sort [music] of the very aggressive position earlier this morning. Now, the suspension of Operation Fury, or whatever they call it, [music] you know, it got the oil price falling quite heavily, and also, if you like, and sort of rather [music] against what should happen, gold and silver rallied very very strongly. Um I think that um however, this is probably just a pause. Um I don't see that any sort of negotiations are going to change the situation and America is in a very very difficult position now of um having to try and sort of find a way of retreating from uh attacks against Iran without [music] appearing to do so. You know, in other words, you know, some sort of um you know, >> [music] >> face-saving deal. Now, the Iranians are not giving them a face-saving deal. And the other problem is that if the Americans do America [music] does back off, it ends up um leaving Israel exposed, which is very very difficult to do. So, putting all this together, I think that um >> [music] >> there is a strong likelihood of a renewed um campaign uh military campaign against um Iran. And uh I mean, we've got no idea on timing, but one of the things that will be a a military constraint is that really in the next 2 [music] weeks, uh it's going to start getting very very hot in uh the Gulf, which basically means that it'll be very difficult for um American soldiers [music] to operate because they're not acclimatized to it.

[00:12:51]So, that will put them at a huge disadvantage. Um I think that um if uh America does attack Iran again, uh the response, which Iran's already promised, will be extremely severe. Um they've got hypersonic missiles, which um so far they haven't used very much of, but they've got a lot of them. Uh they have promised that they will basically wipe out all the infrastructure within the Gulf. We're talking about water desalination, which will make countries like Kuwait uninhabitable. I think [music] that that makes an enormous amount of sense, and that's really where the quiet power um of China uh That's really, you know, where she is most powerful, I think, and can really derail America as a whole.

[00:13:36]I think for her to go right down that route would be very, very destructive, and I think she would be reluctant to do that because apart from anything else, she doesn't want to be blamed for America's misfortunes. She wants America to be blamed for America's misfortunes, if you like. So, this is this explains why she's really not been, if you like, up front in this problem.

[00:13:59]She's been doing things in the background, which really haven't caught the headlines. The next stage of the story is not simply about whether silver rises in price.

[00:14:07]That is too narrow. The real question is whether silver is beginning to expose a much larger weakness in the financial system.

[00:14:15]For years, markets have been trained to believe that paper claims are the same as real assets.

[00:14:21]A contract for silver is treated [music] as if it is silver.

[00:14:24]A bank balance is treated as if it is money.

[00:14:27]A government bond is treated [music] as if it is safety.

[00:14:31]But in a crisis, the difference between a claim and the thing itself [music] becomes painfully clear.

[00:14:37]A claim depends on someone else performing.

[00:14:40]Physical silver does not. This is why the movement of silver out of major vaults matters.

[00:14:46]>> [music] >> When metal leaves the system, paper confidence becomes more fragile.

[00:14:51]It is easy to trade large quantities of silver on a screen.

[00:14:55]It is much harder to deliver large quantities of physical silver when everyone suddenly wants it. The paper market depends on the assumption that only a small percentage of participants will ever ask for delivery.

[00:15:06]>> [music] >> That works until people begin asking the obvious question, what if more people want the real metal at the same time?

[00:15:13]The modern financial world is built on confidence and settlement. Most people do not actually want delivery most of the time.

[00:15:20]>> [music] >> They want exposure, leverage, price movement, and profit. But during monetary stress, the character of demand changes. People stop asking, "Can I trade [music] this?" and begin asking, "Can I hold this?"

[00:15:34]That is a completely different question.

[00:15:36]Trading is about price. Holding is about trust. And when trust declines, physical ownership becomes more valuable than paper exposure.

[00:15:45]This is especially important for silver because the available physical market is much smaller than the paper market suggests. On paper, liquidity can look enormous. In reality, immediately deliverable silver may be far more limited. If a serious squeeze develops, the price will not be determined by casual sellers. It will be determined by the marginal buyer who must have metal and the marginal holder who refuses to part with it unless [music] the price is much higher. That is how markets reprice scarcity.

[00:16:15]Now, there is another side to this.

[00:16:17]Industrial users. Investors can wait.

[00:16:20]Traders can close positions. Speculators can move on to the next excitement. But industrial users cannot always wait. If a manufacturer needs silver for production, it cannot simply say, "Never mind. We shall use inspirational quotes instead."

[00:16:36]A solar panel producer needs silver.

[00:16:38]Electronics manufacturers need silver.

[00:16:40]Defense contractors need silver. If supply becomes uncertain, these users may begin stockpiling. And once industrial users begin stockpiling, the shortage becomes worse.

[00:16:51]>> [music] >> This creates a powerful feedback loop.

[00:16:53]Rising prices alert the market. Higher prices encourage investors to buy.

[00:16:58]>> [music] >> Investors buying physical silver reduce available supply.

[00:17:02]Reduced supply makes industrial users nervous. Nervous industrial users build inventories. Inventory building tightens the market further. That pushes prices higher. And then the public notices.

[00:17:15]By the time the public notices, the move is often already well underway.

[00:17:19]The danger is that silver can move from being ignored to being chased very quickly. That is silver's nature. It spends long periods doing very little, disappointing nearly everyone. Then suddenly it moves with extraordinary speed. This is because the silver market is small relative to the size of global capital.

[00:17:39]If even a modest amount of money leaves bonds, bank deposits, or equities and moves into physical silver, the effect can be disproportionate.

[00:17:48]Silver does not need the whole world to buy it. It only needs a small percentage of the world to want real metal at the same time. But this cannot be separated from the bond market. The real macro trigger remains bond yields. If bond yields break higher, the entire financial structure comes under pressure. Governments must pay more to borrow. Banks face losses on existing bond holdings. Mortgage rates rise.

[00:18:13]Corporate refinancing becomes more expensive. Equity valuations come under pressure. Pension funds and insurance companies must adjust to a new interest rate reality. In [music] other words, higher yields do not stay neatly inside the bond market. They spread across everything. This is why the debt trap is so dangerous. A government with low debt can survive higher interest rates. A government with very high debt cannot absorb them so easily. When debt is enormous, even a small rise in average borrowing costs become serious.

[00:18:44]When rates rise sharply, the arithmetic becomes brutal. Interest payments consume more revenue. Deficits widen.

[00:18:52]More debt must be issued. Investors demand still higher yields. The government becomes trapped between austerity, default, inflation, and financial repression. Austerity is politically difficult. Default is unthinkable for major governments, at least openly.

[00:19:08]Financial repression means forcing savers to hold government debt at unattractive returns.

[00:19:14]Inflation means reducing the real value of debt by weakening the currency.

[00:19:19]Of these options, inflation is often the most politically tempting because it is the least honest. A government can blame inflation on supply chains, foreign enemies, greedy companies, climate, war, or anything else. But the result is the same.

[00:19:35]Ordinary people pay through the loss of purchasing power.

[00:19:39]This is why currency debasement is so dangerous. It is not announced as debasement. It is announced as support, stimulus, emergency action, liquidity provision, financial stability, or national necessity.

[00:19:53]The words sound responsible. The effect is that the currency buys less.

[00:19:58]People are told that these measures are temporary, but temporary policies have a strange way of becoming permanent whenever governments depend on them.

[00:20:07]At some point, people begin to notice.

[00:20:09]They may not use the language of Austrian economics. They may never mention Mises. They may not talk about crack-up booms or monetary theory, but they know when their salary buys less food. They know when savings no longer feel safe. They know when rent rises faster than income. They know when every trip to the shop feels like a small financial ambush.

[00:20:30]That lived experience eventually becomes political and monetary distrust. This is where precious metals enter the public imagination again.

[00:20:38]Gold usually moves first in people's minds because it is the senior monetary metal. Central banks hold gold, not silver, as official reserve money.

[00:20:47]Gold is the metal of institutions, sovereigns, and large wealth.

[00:20:51]Silver, however, is the metal of the wider public. It is smaller, more accessible, more familiar, and historically more connected to everyday money.

[00:21:01]If confidence in currency weakens deeply enough, silver can attract people who cannot easily buy large amounts of gold.

[00:21:08]That is why silver can become emotionally powerful during monetary stress.

[00:21:13]It is not merely an investment. It becomes a form of escape.

[00:21:17]People may begin by buying a few coins, a few bars, something tangible.

[00:21:23]Then they tell themselves it is just a hedge. Then they notice the price rising. Then they notice availability falling. Then the story spreads. And in the modern world, stories travel faster than ever. One rumor of shortage, one photograph of empty shelves at a bullion dealer, one post showing long delivery delays, and suddenly psychology changes.

[00:21:44]>> [music] >> Stay informed about the latest developments shaping the precious metals markets with regular updates from the Finance Daily team. Not only that, but as a subscriber, you'll also receive timely silver and gold price notifications and early access to groundbreaking news unavailable to the general public. Join our free gold and silver newsletter today. Link in the description.