Tropical weather forecast: Atlantic Hurricane Season begins

Added: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]Hurricane season is here. We've made it to the 6 months out of the year that we could have something pop up in the Gulf and it could quickly cause us some major trouble. In fact, I want to go back to the time frame from really 1950 all the way to 2023 and you can see that the Texas Gulf Coast has been hit by seven major hurricanes in that time frame, 1950 to 2023. Now, think about all of the tropical systems that we've had and these are some of the worst. These would be the hurricanes that were category 3, 4, or 5. That's worst case scenario. So, we've had five landfalls for a category 3. That would be Alicia in 1983, Bret 1999, Beulah 1967, Celia 1970, and Allen in 1980.

[00:00:52]Category 4 landfalls, we've had two of those in this time frame. So, that would be Harvey back in 2017 and Carla back in 1961.

[00:01:02]So far, no category 5 landfalls at least since 1950. So, let's try to keep that trend going because of course that would be the worst case scenario. So, what are we looking at for this season? Well, we have numbers from NOAA that are around average or slightly below average, mainly due to the fact that we're expecting a very strong El Nino to develop as we go through the hurricane season. So, at this point, NOAA calling for a 55% chance for the season to be below normal, 35% chance it's going to be near normal, and only a 10% chance for an above normal season. But, you can't let these percentages and these numbers fool you. Why? Because, as we always tell you, it only takes one tropical storm, one hurricane barreling into H-Town to cause major problems.

[00:01:52]Maybe millions without power, a foot of water could quickly build up, and of course, the wind damage. So, you definitely need to prepare whether it's expected to be a quiet season or an active season. But, NOAA is calling for 8 to 14 named storms, out of those three to six becoming hurricanes, and out of those one to three becoming major hurricanes. So, we've been talking a lot about this El Niño that is expected to develop. It's basically when you have warmer than average waters that build up in the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific, and that causes typically more wind shear in the Atlantic basin. So, that means tropical systems have a harder time developing when you have that stronger wind shear, but keep in mind that's mainly over the Caribbean and the Atlantic. Sometimes that wind shear doesn't really impact the Gulf quite as much. So, we can still get some quickly developing tropical storms and hurricanes even in an El Niño year in a quieter season. So, you need to be prepared the same in below average seasons, regular seasons, or above normal seasons. So, I told you about the NOAA prediction, Colorado State University, reputable folks to listen to. Meteorologists there are calling for 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. So, you see that slightly below our average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and about three major hurricanes. So, slightly below below normal season, yes, but there could still be some potential trouble for us as we go through the rest of this hurricane season. So, during an El Niño year, there's more concern for what we call home grown storms to form near the coast. Those are those tropical systems that may form right along a stalled out front in the Gulf, and they could quickly develop. They're already close to the coast, and they could hit you very quickly, so it doesn't really give you much time to prepare. So, you may only have 24 to 48 hours to prepare in that type of scenario. For example, 1983, which was a strong El Niño year, Alicia went from nothing to a category 3 hurricane in 36 hours and hit H-Town.

[00:03:56]There were a lot of buildings downtown where the glass was blown out in those high-rise buildings due to all of that strong wind over 100 mph. So, that was what we call a homegrown storm. It developed very close to the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast and it hit within a couple of days. So, you don't want to be caught off guard when you have that type of scenario happening.

[00:04:20]So, the good news right now is that we're not seeing anything too concerning in the Gulf. We do have a flare-up of convection there right around the Yucatan Peninsula, but it's basically just some disorganized showers and storms there. Nothing that looks like it's going to turn into a tropical system. However, water temps are more than warm enough to fuel these tropical systems. We've got low 80s, even some middle 80s showing up in the southeastern Gulf. So, the warmth is there, but we do have something working against the formation of tropical systems. We do have a quite a bit of that Saharan dust. It's that dry, dusty air that kind of limits these tropical storms from going. So, with the combination of a little bit of wind shear, the Saharan dust, I don't think we're going to have to worry too much about development, major development at least in the tropics or in the Gulf for us for the next week or so. There could be some tropical moisture that gets pulled up later this week that could enhance our rain chances. Before now, I don't think we're worried about a tropical storm or a hurricane. As far as our weather pattern the rest of this week, we do have increasing rain chances. We've got a front that's going to drop in and like I said, some of that tropical moisture will start to spread in from the Gulf by the middle of the week and later this week. You could see that kind of rolling in, but nothing that is looking super concerning like a tropical depression, a tropical storm, or a hurricane. So, good news there.

[00:05:42]But, once we get to that point, when we do have a a storm or hurricane, these are the names that will be used this season from Arthur all the way down to Wilfred and several names in between.

[00:05:52]Hopefully, we don't get too far down that list, but it is a possibility and we always want you to be prepared. As far as formation zones for this month, the month of June, typically if we get a tropical storm, it's going to be somewhere in the Gulf that could impact us, certainly, and also over towards the Bahamas and other parts of the western Atlantic. So, these are the hot spots for this month that we are really going to be keeping a close eye on, but just keep in mind that this is only the beginning, day one of hurricane season for the Atlantic basin that goes all the way through the end of November. And of course, really starts to heat up or peak usually towards the end of August and the first couple weeks of September. So, we're going to be monitoring things day by day, watching it closely for you. You definitely need to be prepared. Make sure you've got all of your gear. And also, make sure you go over those evacuation routes and leave if you're in a mandatory evacuation zone, if you're told to. And if you're going to camp out at home, you're not evacuating, you're sheltering in place, you definitely need to be prepared for power outages, remain indoors until the all clear is given, and you need to stay connected with us, our free streaming app, Fox Local. Of course, if we get anything concerning out there in the tropics, we will be giving you constant updates and we'll let you know what you need to be worried about.