DA’s Emfuleni victory sparks debate

Añadido: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]Democratic Alliance says its victory in the Emfuleni Ward 28 is a sign that South Africans are choosing change and governments that work. Now, the party contested this particular local poll and won the former ANC stronghold with 32.36% of the vote, growing from just 14% in 2021 and 19 in 2024. Let's bring election analyst Thimbelani Mazibuko into the conversation and widen the scope a little bit more. Mr. Mazibuko, very good evening to you because there have been a lot of interesting developments. The DA is one thing because they won just by eight votes, but almost doubled this support previously. But interesting to note that the PA made a mark in this particular by-election. The MK party did not contest, but also, you know, there's been some inroads for the South African Communist Party. The voting patterns are certainly changing.

[00:01:05]Good evening.

[00:01:07]>> Good evening. Thank you so much for inviting me to your show, Siyanda.

[00:01:11]Certainly, there is a change in the voting patterns within this ward.

[00:01:17]Um as you correctly mentioned, the ANC suffered quite a decrease in the number of votes.

[00:01:23]>> Yeah.

[00:01:23]>> Whereas the the Democratic Alliance received significantly more votes. The EFF also suffered from a decrease in the in the number of votes.

[00:01:34]This to me suggests that the Democratic Alliance has put a lot of effort and a lot of resources in Gauteng for the upcoming local government elections.

[00:01:46]While, for example, City of Johannesburg, as well as the City of Tshwane, have taken all the spotlights, particularly City of Johannesburg, but there are other municipalities, including and especially Emfuleni, as well as Midvaal, which they currently govern. Um, as well as Mkhondo Municipality and eGhuruleni, where the Democratic Alliance is putting resources.

[00:02:06]Um, and it is starting to show today.

[00:02:09]But, how how however, I will say that we should be careful not to read too much into by-elections.

[00:02:15]>> Yeah.

[00:02:15]>> Um, because by-elections are one data points in a relatively small parts of um the city of the of the province.

[00:02:23]>> Yeah.

[00:02:23]>> We can make more meaningful conclusions when we have, perhaps, a string of by-elections in and around the area.

[00:02:31]But, so far, so good for the Democratic Alliance.

[00:02:33]>> Um, I'm also quite interested in the SACP contesting the poll and them actually just showing a glimmer. I think they were 3% in this by-election. And I suppose, as you've rightfully mentioned, we shouldn't read too much into one by-election in one particular province and region, for that matter. But, certainly, given the politics around the alliance and them actually contesting, 3% is that a good showing for for party that has never really contested in an area such as Everton?

[00:03:14]>> Yeah, that's a good question. I would say this, 3% would be good in a local government election, where the entire country is voting. And if they were to receive 3% of the vote nationally, when all the votes are combined, I would add the the caveat that I added earlier on, is that in a by-election, parties are able to focus um even national resources in that particular ward. We see, for example, the Patriotic Alliance doing this quite effectively and able to tell a story from the increase in support in wards in the Western Cape, the Northern Cape, and one or two wards in the Eastern Cape. So, because of the fact that parties, in this case South African Communist Party, is able to show their resources um towards this by-election. Um they are then able to garner um to get their activists and to get their supporters out to vote because after all, this is the only election um in this round of by-elections in the province. So, they can um bring resources from other regions um into this particular part of the country. So, I wouldn't want to draw too much conclusion with regards to the results of the South African Communist Party.

[00:04:30]Um subsequent by-election results may be able to give us a deeper story, and certainly we'll have much more clarity after the 2nd of November when the whole country goes to the ballot.

[00:04:42]>> Mhm. Um definitely the 4th of November, Mr. Mawase Mkhungo, but uh one thing that was also interesting for me if we are to we are to use this particular by-election results as a way to discuss what is uh coming up in November. It's um the MK Party didn't contest uh this particular ward, and uh while I'm not picking on them, um you know, uh specifically, it is telling a story of just how much reach you need to have as a political party for a local government election. It's a completely different monster to a national government a national a general election because with a local government election, you need to have reach. You need to have election machinery. How difficult do you think it's going to be for new entrants in the 2026 LGE to actually have that kind of reach, or is it going to boil down to having a very clear strategy of the areas that you intend target.

[00:05:49]>> Yeah, so to to answer your question, definitely smaller parties by by nature are going to have a challenge.

[00:05:56]>> Mhm.

[00:05:56]>> Um they're newer, they have less resources, they don't have the kind of branches that bigger parties may have.

[00:06:02]So, to the second part of your question, they would definitely have to focus and steward their resources. Even parties that are much more established, the IFP, um one of the oldest parties in democratic South Africa, um they are still a relatively regional party in KwaZulu-Natal and parts of Gauteng as well as Mpumalanga. So, parties that are that old, you are not consisting, for example, in many in wards in many in large swaths of the country, including the northern parts of the country, the Western Cape. So, with regards to, for example, the MK, uh without knowing the reason why they didn't put up a a candidate. By the way, a number of parties didn't put up candidates.

[00:06:46]>> Mhm.

[00:06:47]>> Not every party put up a candidate in every by-election because the um by-elections take time, they take resources.

[00:06:55]>> Mhm.

[00:06:55]>> Perhaps it speaks to um a a lack of a candidate, a lack of organization, or maybe wanting to save their resources knowing that they are not going to win in this particular by-election. But speaking of MK, they have found success outside of their traditional stronghold, >> Yeah.

[00:07:13]>> which is KwaZulu-Natal. They did win a by-election in the North West province, they did win a by-election in the Western Cape. So, for a new party, it certainly has gotten um significant amounts of reach, um notwithstanding the fact that they do not receive as much um media attention um as other newer parties.

[00:07:33]>> Mhm. Uh Timbalani Mazibuko, thank you very much for your time this evening. An elections analyst just talking about the outcomes of the Everton by-elections and of course this is a signal of course of how much resources and time and reach that parties are going to have to have when contesting the upcoming local polls. All right, so when we return after the break we will delve deeper into the revelation by Amabhungane that nearly 30,000 [music] high-risk parolees including murder and rape convicts cannot be found. Now we'll speak to a corrections management expert after this.