1 MIN AGO: U.S. Warships Suddenly Moved Toward Hormuz

Ajouté : 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Something just happened in the Strait of Hormuz, and if you are watching this in the first few hours after it posted, you are watching a story that is still developing in real time. US warships have moved, positions have shifted.

[00:00:11]Welcome to my channels. If you are new here, hit that subscribe button right now and ring the bell so you never miss a video. But here is what makes this moment different from every previous escalation in this conflict. The warships are not just moving because of a threat, they are moving because of a deal, because of a clock, because Iran's oil storage is almost full.

[00:00:29]Because both sides know that the window for a negotiated exit from this crisis is narrowing with every passing day. And because the US Navy, positioned at the gates of the Persian Gulf with three carrier strike groups and over 100 aircraft, has just demonstrated something to the entire world that changes every calculation Tehran is making. That it can go through the strait anytime it chooses. And that Iran cannot stop it. Today, we are going to give you the complete picture. Every warship movement, every deal update, every piece of intelligence, every economic number. Because what is happening right now on May 10th, 2026, day 71 of the Iran war, is not just another headline in a conflict that has been generating headlines every hour for more than 2 months. It is the moment where everything that has been building since February 28th is converging toward an outcome. And the outcome is closer than most people realize.

[00:01:18]Part one.

[00:01:20]The last 72 hours. The fastest moving story in the world. To understand what is happening right now, you need to understand what happened in the 72 hours before this moment. Because the pace of events in the Strait of Hormuz has accelerated to a speed that is genuinely difficult to track without a guide.

[00:01:36]In the early morning hours, three US guided missile destroyers, the USS Truxtun, the USS Rafael Peralta, and the USS Mason, transited the Strait of Hormuz westward toward the Gulf of Oman.

[00:01:48]Iran fired at all three of them.

[00:01:50]Ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, fast attack boats.

[00:01:54]A coordinated simultaneous assault from multiple vectors. Every single boat Iran launched was destroyed. Not one projectile reached any of the three American warships.

[00:02:03]CENTCOM's statement was six sentences.

[00:02:05]It said US forces intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defense strikes as the destroyers transited the international sea passage.

[00:02:13]It said Iranian forces launched multiple missiles, drones, and small boats. It said no US assets were struck. And it named the Iranian military facilities that US forces then immediately struck in response. Missile and drone launch sites, command and control locations, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance nodes. The ports of Qeshm, Bandar Abbas, and the Bandar Kargan naval checkpoint in Minab province.

[00:02:36]Iran's state media reported multiple explosions across Hormozgan province.

[00:02:40]The entire southern coastline from which Iran had been conducting its maritime campaign. Air defense activity was reported in western Tehran.

[00:02:46]Trump posted on Truth Social that the Iranians are more malleable than they were before. He warned, "Just like we knocked them out again today, we will knock them out a lot harder and a lot more violently in the future if they do not get their deal signed fast."

[00:02:59]And then, on May 8th, came the sentence that changed everything.

[00:03:04]Trump confirmed in a brief post that the agreement stipulates Iran would export its highly enriched uranium to the United States. That single sentence, buried in a morning Truth Social update, was one of the most consequential in the history of nuclear non-proliferation.

[00:03:18]Iran's entire nuclear program, the decades of centrifuges, the sanctions-defying enrichment, the 60% enriched uranium stockpile sitting 90% of the way to weapons grade, was reportedly on the table to be shipped out of the country to America.

[00:03:32]The warships are still in position, and the clock is running.

[00:03:35]Part two.

[00:03:37]Why the warships moved.

[00:03:39]What the positions reveal. The movement of US warships toward the strait in the hours and days surrounding this script is not random.

[00:03:46]It is deliberate, calibrated, and communicating a specific message to Tehran with the clarity that only naval steel can deliver, here is the current disposition of US forces as of today.

[00:03:56]The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group has been operating in the Arabian Sea throughout the conflict, conducting sustained combat operations. Its F/A-18 Super Hornets were confirmed flying direct support for Project Freedom operations from the carrier deck on May 4th. The USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group has been operating from the Eastern Mediterranean, providing long-range strike coverage. The USS George H.W. Bush, which departed Norfolk on March 31st, and arrived in the CENTCOM area of responsibility on April 23rd, brought the number of carrier strike groups in theater to three.

[00:04:26]The highest concentration of American naval air power in a single theater since the 2003 Iraq War. Two amphibious ready groups with Marine Expeditionary Units embarked, the Tripoli ARG with the 31st MEU and the Boxer ARG with the 11th MEU are operating in the region. Over 15,000 US service members are at sea in the CENTCOM AOR. And critically, the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers that have been enforcing the blockade of Iranian ports since April 13th are now cycling through the strait itself, not just sitting in the Arabian Sea.

[00:04:58]The USS Truxtun and USS Mason completed combat transits on May 4th. Three destroyers, Truxtun, Mason, and the USS Rafael Peralta completed another transit under fire on May 7th. The positioning of these ships tells a story that no press briefing needs to narrate. The US Navy is not waiting outside the kill box anymore. It is going through the kill box deliberately, repeatedly. And each time Iran fires, the response is immediate and precise.

[00:05:24]The movement of warships toward Hormuz right now, as you watch this, is the physical expression of the leverage America has accumulated over 71 days of war. It is saying, "We can be here whenever we choose, and you cannot stop us." The question that matters is what Iran does with that message.

[00:05:38]Part three, the deal framework.

[00:05:41]What is on the table right now?

[00:05:44]Here is where the story gets genuinely historic because the US-Iran negotiations that are happening this week, mediated by Pakistan, supported by Saudi Arabia, engaged by France and China from the outside, are producing outlines of an agreement that would have seemed impossible to most analysts just 6 months ago. Let us go through what is being negotiated piece by piece.

[00:06:05]The nuclear file is the central issue.

[00:06:07]Iran currently holds stockpiles of uranium enriched to approximately 60% purity. 90% is weapons-grade. Iran was weeks away from weapons-grade enrichment capability at the moment Operation Epic Fury struck on February 28th. Complete cessation of all uranium enrichment, dismantling of nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, transfer of all highly enriched uranium out of Iran.

[00:06:29]Iran's counter position has been equally explicit. It will accept a temporary moratorium on enrichment, but not permanent dismantlement, and it is negotiating the length of that moratorium. As of this week, Axios reported, citing three separate sources, that both sides are actively negotiating a moratorium of at least 12 years, with one source suggesting 15 years as the likely final timeline.

[00:06:49]The Wall Street Journal reported, citing an Iranian official, that one scenario under discussion involves halting enrichment for 12 to 15 years before allowing Iran to enrich up to 3.67% purity, the level permitted under the original 2015 nuclear deal.

[00:07:04]The Hormuz file is the second major issue. The US demands that the strait be fully open to all ships of all nations without tolls, without Iranian permission requirements, without the Persian Gulf Strait Authority that Iran unilaterally declared on May 5th. Iran, as of the last formal negotiating position, has demanded continued control over the waterway, including the right to charge passage tolls and establish a new governance mechanism for the strait.

[00:07:27]That position became dramatically harder to hold after May 4th and May 7th US destroyers went through. Nothing hit.

[00:07:33]Iran's ports were then struck in retaliation.

[00:07:36]The leverage Tehran thought it held in the strait was demonstrated to be significantly weaker than its negotiators had been claiming.

[00:07:43]The sanctions file is the third element.

[00:07:45]Iran is demanding the lifting of all US primary and secondary sanctions, the release of billions in frozen Iranian assets, and reconstruction assistance for the damage done by Operation Epic Fury.

[00:07:55]The broader deal framework, as reported by Axios this week, would involve three simultaneous actions.

[00:08:00]Iran commits to the enrichment moratorium, the US lifts sanctions and releases frozen funds. Both sides simultaneously lift restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transit. That third point is the one that affects not just Iran and America, but 20% of the world's entire oil supply, and both sides know it.

[00:08:18]Part four, the clock.

[00:08:20]Iran cannot stop the oil storage crisis.

[00:08:24]Here is the piece of this story that is not getting enough attention, and it is the piece that explains, more than any other single factor, why Iran's negotiating position is weakening with every passing day.

[00:08:35]Not almost full in a manageable, we can work around this sense, almost full in an irreversible clock is running sense that is beginning to force decisions that nobody in Tehran wants to make.

[00:08:45]Here is the mechanism. Iran produces approximately 3.2 to 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day.

[00:08:52]Before the war, that oil flowed out through Bandar Abbas and Kharg Island, primarily to Chinese buyers. Since February 28th, the US blockade of Iranian ports and Iran's own closure of the Strait have combined to shut off nearly all of that export flow.

[00:09:05]The oil that Iran is producing has nowhere to go, so it has been filling storage. Onshore storage tanks at Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal, have been filling steadily since the blockade began on April 13th.

[00:09:17]Iran took an old mothballed tanker out of storage to use as emergency floating storage. It has been searching for additional onshore tank capacity, but the math is closing in. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on April 22nd that in a matter of days Kharg Island storage would be full, and the fragile Iranian oil wells would be shut in.

[00:09:35]An Iranian oil ministry official told the New York Times just days ago that Iran would begin closing oil wells in 40 to 45 days with some closures permanent.

[00:09:44]That word, permanent, is the one that concentrates minds in Tehran. Because shutting in an oil well is not like turning off a faucet. It is a complex interaction with a natural reservoir system. Pressure instability can increase methane leakage. Water intrusion in older fields can permanently reduce productive capacity.

[00:10:01]Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, in a report published this week, noted that Iran's older oil fields are particularly susceptible to water breakthrough, risking long-term damage from shut-ins exceeding 1 month.

[00:10:13]Even more alarming, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar have collectively shut in more than 11 million barrels per day of oil production because of the conflict and its disruption of regional infrastructure. Iraq, according to the same analysis, is likely to recover only about 85% of its pre-war production levels by year-end even if the strait reopens next month. Full recovery is not expected before 2028. Al Jazeera's oil market analysis said it plainly, "Restarting the wells is not like flipping a switch. It is expensive and technically demanding.

[00:10:46]And it will take years for the Gulf energy industry to repair facilities damaged or destroyed during the war."

[00:10:51]Iran understands this arithmetic better than anyone. The US blockade is not just squeezing Iran's current revenue. It is destroying Iran's future production capacity permanently with every additional week it continues. And it is the reason the warships moving toward Hormuz right now are not just a military signal. They are the physical embodiment of an economic reality that is becoming more dire for Iran with every sunrise.

[00:11:15]Part five, the diplomatic architecture.

[00:11:19]Who is pushing what?

[00:11:21]The negotiating landscape around these talks is more complex, more multilateral, and more consequential than almost any previous diplomatic effort in the modern Middle East.

[00:11:29]Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invested enormous political capital in this effort, hosting talks, flying between capitals, keeping communication channels open even when both sides were firing at each other's ships.

[00:11:41]When Trump paused Project Freedom on May 5th, Sharif was publicly named by Trump as one of the key figures whose request prompted the decision.

[00:11:49]Sharif posted on social media that Pakistan was very hopeful that the current momentum would lead to a lasting agreement that secures durable peace and stability for the region and beyond.

[00:11:58]Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman has been working a parallel track and he has personally lobbied Trump to pause Project Freedom, according to reporting confirmed by multiple sources.

[00:12:07]Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement Tuesday calling for the Strait to be restored to its pre-February 28th state and demanding safe, unconditional passage of ships, a position that mirrors Washington's stated demands. From Beijing, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke by phone with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan this week, reviewing the latest regional developments and emphasizing the continuation of diplomacy. China, which has the most to lose economically from a prolonged Hormuz closure, published a five-point plan jointly with Pakistan on March 31st that included restoring normal passage through the Strait as soon as possible. China has 11 million barrels per day of oil supply that normally flows through the Strait and it is watching that supply chain deteriorate with every passing week.

[00:12:52]France uh has also stepped in.

[00:12:54]President Macron spoke by phone with Iranian President Peseschkian this week and publicly called on both sides to immediately lift their restrictions on shipping in the Strait without conditions. That call straight from a European leader not directly involved in the war represented the growing international consensus that the dual blockade situation cannot persist indefinitely without doing permanent damage to the global economy.

[00:13:14]Lloyd's of London, in its Thursday briefing, stated flatly that as of right now the Strait is closed with no transits recorded since May 4th.

[00:13:22]The only ships moving in or out of the Persian Gulf are doing so with explicit authorization from either Iran or the US Navy. That is not a functioning international waterway. That is a jointly administered choke point controlled by two adversaries who are simultaneously bombing each other's ships and negotiating a peace deal. Part six, Iran's new leadership and why it matters for what comes next.

[00:13:44]There is one dimension of this story that has been underreported throughout the entire conflict. The person who is now, technically, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran when Khamenei was killed in the opening hours of Operation Epic Fury on February 28th, the Islamic Republic was left without its most important decision maker. In the days that followed, Iranian state television aired a statement attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei, the deceased supreme leader's son, declaring him the new supreme leader. Mojtaba Khamenei had been widely seen as his father's preferred successor, but had been deliberately kept out of public view for years.

[00:14:18]He has no military background. He has no diplomatic track record. And since his designation, only written statements attributed to him have been publicly released by the regime. He has not appeared on camera. He has not held press conferences. He has not been seen publicly engaging with military commanders or foreign officials. That absence, in the middle of a war that is deciding the future of the country, is itself a political signal of enormous significance. Trump, in one of his more perceptive observations amid a stream of colorful Truth Social posts, noted that Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is. And that the infighting between the hardliners who have been losing badly on the battlefield and the moderates who are not very moderate at all, but gaining respect, is crazy. He was right about the dynamic, if not the exact terminology.

[00:15:01]Iran's post-Khamenei political landscape is fractured in ways that directly affect the negotiations.

[00:15:06]The IRGC hardliners, the commanders who ordered the fast attack boats to fire at US destroyers, who have been laying mines in the strait since the ceasefire took hold on April 8th, who have been attacking UAE infrastructure, want no deal that they see as capitulation. The diplomatic track, led by Foreign Minister Aragchi and Parliament Speaker Gallab off, has been trying to find terms that Tehran can accept without the IRGC declaring the regime has surrendered.

[00:15:30]The tension between those two factions is playing out in real time in the mixed signals coming from Tehran.

[00:15:35]On one day, Aragchi posts that there is no military solution to a political crisis and that Project Freedom is Project Deadlock. On the next day, IRGC boats are firing missiles and drones at US destroyers transiting the strait.

[00:15:48]Both of those things are happening simultaneously from the same government.

[00:15:51]That is a government at war with itself trying to reach a deal while its own military keeps pulling the trigger. And the US warships moving toward Hormuz are not just pressuring Tehran's diplomatic track. They are narrowing the space for the IRGC hardliners to keep the conflict going.

[00:16:06]Part seven, the global economy.

[00:16:10]How many days can the world absorb this?

[00:16:12]While the diplomatic and military drama has been playing out in the strait, the global economic consequences have been building toward a threshold that no government anywhere can ignore.

[00:16:21]Before the war, 138 ships per day transited the Strait of Hormuz. As of Lloyd's most recent briefing, that number is effectively zero. Over 550 vessels are stranded in or around the Persian Gulf. More than 22,500 mariners are aboard those ships running low on food and supplies, unable to move.

[00:16:38]15,000 passengers are stranded on six cruise ships, including the MSC Euribia, Mein Schiff 4, Mein Schiff 5, and three others that have been unable to use the strait since February 28th. Oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. US gas prices are averaging $4.48 per gallon, having climbed from under $3 at the start of the year. More than 100 countries have raised prices at petrol pumps since the war began. LNG prices in Asia have surged to levels not seen since the 2022 energy crisis. And the fertilizer market, unless visible but equally critical, is facing a 15 to 20% price surge during the spring planting season with the economists warning that the true impact on global food prices will persist throughout 2026 and into 2027.

[00:17:24]Gulf producers, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar have collectively shut in more than 11 million barrels per day of production.

[00:17:33]Iraq's oil minister has stated that even if the Strait reopens next month, Iraqi production is likely to recover to only about 85% of pre-war levels by year-end.

[00:17:42]These are not temporary inconveniences.

[00:17:43]These are structural disruptions to the global energy system that will take years to fully reverse.

[00:17:48]And every additional week the Strait remains closed deepens the hole that the world economy will have to climb out of on the other side of this crisis. That is the economic pressure that is landing on Trump's desk every morning alongside the military briefings.

[00:18:01]That is why Saudi Arabia's MBS called Trump to push for the pause of Project Freedom. That is why China is in the room even though it has no military presence in the Strait. That is why France's Macron is calling Iranian presidents and posting statements about unjustified strikes on Emirati civilian infrastructure.

[00:18:17]The world cannot afford for this to last much longer, and both sides know it.

[00:18:22]Part eight, what the next 72 hours look like.

[00:18:25]So, let us close with the question that everyone watching this story is actually asking.

[00:18:30]What happens next?

[00:18:31]Here is the most honest answer available from the intelligence and diplomatic picture as of this moment. The one-page memorandum framework, that is what both sides are working toward. Not a comprehensive final agreement, not a signed peace treaty. A one-page document that gives both sides enough to claim they got what they needed, stops the immediate bleeding, and kicks the harder questions down the road to future negotiations. On Iran's side, that means a ceasefire declaration, some sanctions relief, some release of frozen assets, and a formula for the Strait that does not look like total capitulation. On the US side, that means the enriched uranium leaving Iran, which Trump has already publicly confirmed is in the deal, and a commitment to a 12-to-15-year enrichment moratorium. The enriched uranium transfer is the headline that sells this deal domestically in Washington. The moratorium length is what Iran's hardliners will use to argue they preserve the right to eventually resume enrichment. Both sides can read the same document and claim a version of victory.

[00:19:25]And on the straight, the deal framework reportedly involves both sides simultaneously lifting restrictions on shipping. Iran drops its Persian Gulf Strait authority, stops charging tolls, stops threatening commercial vessels.

[00:19:37]The US lifts its port blockade. Ships start moving again. Oil price gas prices follow.

[00:19:42]And 71 days of the most consequential naval standoff in modern history comes to an end.

[00:19:47]But here's the caveat that every analyst watching this is holding. The IRGC has fired at US destroyers twice in the past week while negotiations were ongoing.

[00:19:55]Iran seized the oil tanker Ocean Coil on May 8th. Iran's military command attacked UAE infrastructure and civilian ports even as diplomatic channels were open.

[00:20:04]The pattern of the past 71 days is clear. Iran talks and attacks simultaneously. Every ceasefire has been violated. Every deadline has been extended. Every moment of apparent progress has been followed by another strike, another seizure, another salvo of drones.

[00:20:18]The warships moving toward Hormuz right now are not moving because a deal has been signed. They are moving because a deal has not yet been signed. Because the pressure needs to be maintained.

[00:20:28]Because the Navy has learned over 71 days that the only language the IRGC responds to is the language of destroyers going through the strait under fire and coming out the other side without a scratch. A normal country would have allowed those destroyers to pass. That was Trump's line. It was also, stripped of its rhetorical packaging, a completely accurate description of the dilemma.

[00:20:50]Iran is not acting like a normal country, and the US warships moving toward Hormuz right now are the instrument of the argument that it is going to have to start.

[00:20:57]Watch this space very closely. The next 72 hours may determine whether the Strait of Hormuz becomes a negotiating table or a battlefield again. Subscribe and ring the bell if you haven't already.

[00:21:07]We are on the ground with this story every single day. And leave us a comment below. Stay sharp, stay informed. We will see you in the next one.